Wednesday 31 July 2013

#NRL 2013: Round 21 Tips Late Mail Predictions Preview #NRLLateMail #NRLDT #Supercoach

ROUND 21 TIPS and LATE MAIL
Plus The Postman's NRL Dream Team/NRL Super Coach Picks

 2013 NRL Premiership

By W D Nicolson - July 31, 2013


EXTRA LATEST OF LATE MAIL ADDED THROUGHOUT ROUND
ALL EXPERT PICKS AND SPECIAL FRIED RICE ADDED AS RECEIVED
View 2013 @NRLTweet PLAYER OF THE YEAR Final Public LEADERBOARD
The advice has been simple... if you are in tipping contention at this time of year - tip favourites.

Sticking to that philosophy you tip 6/8 in Round 20... with only the Broncos and Warriors hurting you - that's very handy form at this time of year.

So it bears repeating - stick with the favourites if you are in with a chance in a tipping comp.

By all means pick the slight outsider like the Broncos were v North Queensland, or the Warriors at home v Melbourne but if you picked the Knights over the Roosters or Dragons over the Raiders - you either can't read a ladder or foolishly don't believe in hoodoos.

This week there are a number of fairly even matchups - so be smart, pick the favourites and if you must - take an upset in one game (maybe maybe maybe two)... but any more than that and you might cancel out any gains you get with dumb picks that lose you ground.

I won a BBQ in 2010 remember... this proven strategy is how you win a Weber people!

Anyhoo for the final week - there are two features on www.nrl.com that are worth checking out and another two on the way Thursday.

Buying spree paying off for Roosters | Round 21 DT Analysis

DT Market Watch: Round 21 | Tipping Insider: Round 21

Latest of Late Mail and Round 21 Tips below!

For our analysis of Tuesday team selections for Round 21 - click here.

As far as Late Mail goes the rolling lockout for all you NRL Dream Team and NRL Super Coach nerds should have allowed you to make any last minute changes quite easily, but once again our Latest of Late Mail should help in any selections you make before the round begins.

The Postman has his NRL Dream Team Picks on nrl.com as of Thursday and they pretty much apply to NRL Super Coach as well. There are 16 fantasy tips below as well - The Postman was feeling generous.
@NRLTweet Player of the Year
Check out the Round 20 Leaderboard before it goes silent
Voting Allocation for Round 21 of the NRL is below.

NRL TIPPING PREVIEW + LATE MAIL
ROUND 21, 2013
Wednesday Odds Courtesy of Sportingbet | NRL LADDER
Friday 7:45pm at Hunter Stadium
KNIGHTS $1.48 v $2.72 BRONCOS
FOOTYTAB: BRI +6.5
Tuesday Teams Analysed on NRL Injured List
@NRLTweet Player of the Year Award Voters:
| Matt Spillane @devonhead Matthew Duncan @mrpeninsula |
Track live round votes via #NRLTweetPOTY
@NRLTweet's PREDICTION:
Big game for the Knights at home... bigger game for the travelling Broncos. Brisbane are dusted for 2013 if they lose this, while the Knights could jump up to as high as 5th if they win. No Mason or Snowden is the window Brisbane wanted into the game - must play it up the guts and beat Newcastle in the ruck... otherwise Jarrod Mullen's far superior kicking game to Scott Prince/Ben Hunt's will dictate terms. Hodges won the game for Brisbane last week off the back of their team defence... just not convinced Brisbane can defend like that in back to back weeks. Knights by 6 points.
 LATEST OF LATE MAIL:
KNIGHTS: Kurt Gidley is next to no chance but might return next week. Sims will miss out and be 18th man with Cuthbertson back and Mason injured.
LATE UPDATE? McManus has a dodgy back he ids out, Kevin Naiqama comes in.
The Postman's DT/SC TIP: Nothing to see in Newcastle, move along...
BRONCOS: Ben Hannant wasn't named but that doesn't always mean he won't play... right? There's also a chance Reed comes into the centres and Stagg goes to the bench with Slyney or Lui missing out.
LATE UPDATE? Reed and Hannant come in, Tasi and Slyney miss out.
The Postman's DT/SC TIP: Justin Hodges is a DT and SC gun when he's on... and trying to carry Brisbane on his back for a few weeks to stay in the playoff hunt is a good chance for him to show he can be 'on' when it matters.
If you have a DT/SC question grab The Postman on Twitter @NRLTweet and I'll answer there.
Friday 7:45pm at Centrebet Stadium
PANTHERS $5.15 v $1.18 ROOSTERS
FOOTYTAB: PEN +10.5
Tuesday Teams Analysed on NRL Injured List
@NRLTweet Player of the Year Award Voters:
| Warrick Nicolson @NRLTweet Greg Delaney @gregdelaney84 |
Track live round votes via #NRLTweetPOTY
@NRLTweet's PREDICTION:
There are a number of reasons Penrith should be up for this game - Michael Jennings returning to the foot of the mountains for the first time as a Rooster is one - but staying alive in the playoff race should be the main reason. No SBW for the Chooks but that probably shouldn't matter that much if they continue to beat teams up the middle with a relentless go-forward directed by Jake Friend at hooker. Penrith lose and I think their season is over (if it isn't already) but I can't tip against Easts - especially with a Minor Premiership in their sights. Roosters by 14 points.
 LATEST OF LATE MAIL:
PANTHERS: There is a chance we could all see Sam McKendry back this week or next... which is good news for everyone bar Ryan Simpkins or Jeremy Latimore or Mose Masoe. There is a suggestion Roberts has a shoulder injury - so if he is out Mansour would come into the backline.
LATE UPDATE? Mansour is in for Roberts on the wing. No McKendry... yet.
The Postman's DT/SC TIP: Hard to recommend any Panthers at this time of year...
ROOSTERS: Aubusson replaces SBW and Guerra is on the bench. Hard to see any changes here - this is a good footy team firing on all cylinders.
LATE UPDATE? Are 1-17.
The Postman's DT/SC TIP: Keep SBW in your squads... you need him for the DT/SC Finals.
If you have a DT/SC question grab The Postman on Twitter @NRLTweet and I'll answer there.
Saturday 5:00pm at Mt Smart Stadium (NZ Time)
WARRIORS $1.41 v $3.00 SHARKS
FOOTYTAB: CRO +4.5
Tuesday Teams Analysed on NRL Injured List
@NRLTweet Player of the Year Award Voters:
| Matt Trodden @trods2906 Justin Davies @dragonpunk12 |
Track live round votes via #NRLTweetPOTY
@NRLTweet's PREDICTION:
The Warriors are on the outside looking in at the Top 8 (they are 9th on differential behind the Knights) but victory over the Sharks would make it 8 wins from their last 9 games and keeps them well and truly in the hunt. Cronulla have been good and terrible this year... Gallen is back (well maybe) but I just don't like that three-quarter line enough to back them to score enough points on the road. Last time I did they got towelled up deluxe by the Cowboys... yes the Cowboys. Warriors by 7 points.
 LATEST OF LATE MAIL:
WARRIORS: Jerome Ropati back for a swansong run to the Finals? Don't rule it out... since he is not named for the Vulcans and admits he is 18th man for the NRL team. Laumape was pulled against the Storm so Ropati would come into the team for him and Hurrell would move to the wing. Packer will play NSW Cup. Johnson and Mannering were rested at training with soreness but will play.
LATE UPDATE? Are 1-17.
The Postman's DT/SC TIP: Have you rolled the dice on Konrad Hurrell in DT/SC? Braver than I...
SHARKS: Gallen wants to play... will travel but we won't know for sure until probably an hour before kickoff. Also check if Tupou, Ryan or Lewis make the trip across the ditch as well. If there are no late additions - Peachey might get the last bench spot ahead of Ross. Robson's face isn't pretty after a gash last weekend but should play.
LATE UPDATE? Gallen playing, Lewis not. Ross gets call ahead of Peachey on bench.
The Postman's DT/SC TIP: Gallen will be a great point of difference for you in the DT/SC Finals... but will he get through one game healthy let alone six?
If you have a DT/SC question grab The Postman on Twitter @NRLTweet and I'll answer there.
Saturday 5:30pm at Parramatta Stadium
EELS $7.50 v $1.10 SEA EAGLES
FOOTYTAB: PAR +14.5
Tuesday Teams Analysed on NRL Injured List
@NRLTweet Player of the Year Award Voters:
| Maria Tsialis @mtsialis Matt Spillane @devonhead |
Track live round votes via #NRLTweetPOTY
@NRLTweet's PREDICTION:
Manly. Manly. Manly. Manly. Look if Jarryd Hayne plays that'd be nice and all but the answer is still: Manly. Sea Eagles by 24 points.
 LATEST OF LATE MAIL:
EELS: The Jarryd Hayne mystery tour continues... he could be back within a fortnight less than a week after his coach suggested shutting him down for the year. He probably doesn't play this weekend (though never rule anything out until an hour before kickoff) but it's good news he will play soon. The Pewhairangi selection isn't convincing... late changes look likely.
LATE UPDATE? Positional switches only. Harrison to bench, Allgood starts.
The Postman's DT/SC TIP: If you've held onto Hayne this long - be patient and he might just reward you.
SEA EAGLES: Tom Symonds is the only player who could still come into Manly's best 17 (Galuvao and King are out for the season) but both DCE and Matai are under injury clouds with ankle and hip injuries respectively. Matai is in the most doubt. Hiku would replace either one and then a shuffle would occur like it did against the Cowboys when DCE was on Origin duty.
LATE UPDATE? Are 1-17.
The Postman's DT/SC TIP: Jamie Lyon's form recently has been awesome... pity I didn't pick him up when I could have swapped him for Inglis... or is this actually a good thing come DT/SC Finals time?
If you have a DT/SC question grab The Postman on Twitter @NRLTweet and I'll answer there.
Saturday 7:30pm at 1300SMILES Stadium
COWBOYS $3.50 v $1.32 RABBITOHS
FOOTYTAB: NQL +6.5
Tuesday Teams Analysed on NRL Injured List
@NRLTweet Player of the Year Award Voters:
| Adrian McMurray @adrmcm Matt Trodden @trods2906 |
Track live round votes via #NRLTweetPOTY
@NRLTweet's PREDICTION:
North Queensland have let Neil Henry go finally... the way they stuck to the 'build pressure and the Broncos will crack' game plan in the final 20 minutes on Friday night was the last straw... because the Broncos didn't crack. Now Henry is out of a job and the Cowboys are mercifully out of commission for 2013. As for Souths - well if you read on to the following prediction it is probably is a good indication of how I think this game will go: Rabbitohs by 20 points.
 LATEST OF LATE MAIL:
COWBOYS: You'd hope Feldt will get a run and it's not just cover for the return of Ashley Graham... right? Henry might also inject some youth into his starting backrow with Tariq Sims or Jason Taumalolo pushing Glenn Hall to the bench.
LATE UPDATE? Feldt will definitely play - the Cowboys posted a picture of him and his #2 debut jersey on twitter. Lui also replaces Morgan.
The Postman's DT/SC TIP: We told our nrl.com DT readers to get Matt Bowen last week as a Point of Difference Maker - he still would be if you are game.
RABBITOHS: Maguire made his changes last week and they did the job. As a result only Sam Burgess's shoulder injury is of any concern... Tyrrell and Hunt are the travelling reserves.
LATE UPDATE? Are 1-17.
The Postman's DT/SC TIP: If you held onto George Burgess in both formats... get that big smile off your face!
If you have a DT/SC question grab The Postman on Twitter @NRLTweet and I'll answer there.
Sunday 2:00pm at Canberra Stadium
RAIDERS $2.40 v $1.60 STORM
FOOTYTAB: CAN +2.5
Tuesday Teams Analysed on NRL Injured List
@NRLTweet Player of the Year Award Voters:
| Warrick Nicolson @NRLTweet Adrian McMurray @adrmcm |
Track live round votes via #NRLTweetPOTY
@NRLTweet's PREDICTION:
Canberra have produced the goods the last 2 times they have played the Storm - but that is tempered somewhat by the fact the Storm have lost just once in Canberra since 2003 (and that was back in 2009). Melbourne's Big 3 have Canberra's measure most times because they are willing to play attacking footy when Canberra try and play it safe... yet the last two times these sides have played - Canberra have thrown open the attacking floodgates and it's left the Storm beaten and bruised. However - not game enough to pick the Raiders to do it 3 times in a row... Storm by 10 points.
 LATEST OF LATE MAIL:
RAIDERS: Wighton and Learoyd-Lahrs are probably going to be held back for Round 22... but if Furner wants Thompson back in the forwards for the semi final push then Wighton or Ferguson (if he's back in the good books) may get the call. Lee is still a week and a bit away. Watch out for Campese looking a little spryer on Sunday... he's shaving all that hair off on Friday for charity.
LATE UPDATE? Wighton returns, Thompson to bench, Kennedy misses out.
The Postman's DT/SC TIP: Anthony Milford is a nice SC point of difference but there are probably wiser investments in the halves for DT.
STORM: Craig Bellamy never likes losing so there could be a change or two on the bench, with perhaps Harris starting for Proctor. The backline looks settled though.
LATE UPDATE? O'Neill out with a dodgy hammy, Fonua comes in. Vave and Griffin dropped, McLean and Kenny Bromwich in.
The Postman's DT/SC TIP: Cooper Cronk is a smart DT investment at this time of year...
If you have a DT/SC question grab The Postman on Twitter @NRLTweet and I'll answer there.
Sunday 3:00pm at Skilled Park
TITANS $1.60 v $2.40 TIGERS
FOOTYTAB: WTG +8.5
Tuesday Teams Analysed on NRL Injured List
@NRLTweet Player of the Year Award Voters:
| Ben Hoese @gunnermcdagget Matt Vickers @mercurialmattyv |
Track live round votes via #NRLTweetPOTY
@NRLTweet's PREDICTION:
Skilled Park should be nice and dry and the footy might be really fun to watch... but I don't really know who to favour. I lean the Titans being at home and with the better forward pack but there are still key injuries for both teams - Kelly and Zillman are next to no chance, while Bailey and Srama are out for the Titans. The Tigers don't have Woods and have Anasta so... Expecting somewhat of a shootout with Farah v Sezer the chief instigators... don't want to trust the Tigers unless the Titans get hit with more injuries (plus if the Gold Coast lose they are probably finished for 2013) - so pre-new injury news - I'll go Titans by 2 points.
 LATEST OF LATE MAIL:
TITANS: Bailey and Srama have ankle injuries, while Kelly and Zillman are struggling to be available... and the GC Bulletin is reporting Zillman and Kelly are no hope for this weekend... if not out longer term.
LATE UPDATE? Douglas to bench, James starts. Same 17 as named though.
The Postman's DT/SC TIP: Kelly is either going to play injured the rest of the year or miss a few weeks... do you want that in your squad for your DT/SC Finals campaign?
TIGERS: Woods is only a chance if he travels - so check who flies up to the Gold Coast on the weekend but right now - he's not going to play. The 2nd Tier Salary Cap is all that stands between Luke Brooks and a first grade debut either this or in the next few weeks...
LATE UPDATE? Anasta/Galloway start, Sironen/Buchanan to bench.
The Postman's DT/SC TIP: Robbie Farah is a MUST HAVE for the remainder of your DT/SC campaign... you'll get left behind if you don't have him.
If you have a DT/SC question grab The Postman on Twitter @NRLTweet and I'll answer there.
Monday 7:00pm at WIN Jubilee Oval
DRAGONS $2.72 v $1.48 BULLDOGS
FOOTYTAB: STI +6.5
Tuesday Teams Analysed on NRL Injured List
@NRLTweet Player of the Year Award Voters:
| Nigel Wilbow @parramatters Ben Hoese @gunnermcdagget |
Track live round votes via #NRLTweetPOTY
@NRLTweet's PREDICTION:
With no Barba for Canterbury I really don't like them against a good team... but the Dragons - are not a good team. I also don't like any situation where I feel like tipping the Dragons - so Canterbury get my tip almost by default. Perrett is not the answer in the #1 - Krisnan Inu or Drury Low make far more sense, but it's not like Hasler will play expansive with Barba out anyway. If Dugan doesn't play (concussion) then the Dogs will win if they stop Trent Merrin, but I don't think the Dragons are without hope by any stretch. Canterbury get the tip based on the ladder position... Bulldogs by 4 points.
 LATEST OF LATE MAIL:
DRAGONS: Dugan's head isn't right... from a concussion that is. The Monday game allows the Dragons to let him rest but given they are out of contention he might miss the game if still groggy on the weekend. In that case Morris probably goes to fullback and Bronx Goodwin or maybe even Evander Cummins might get a run on the wing. But expect Dugan to play at this stage.
LATE UPDATE? Weyman, Stanley and Harrison out, Vea, Green and Matthews in.
The Postman's DT/SC TIP: Back in Business...
BULLDOGS: Expect Perrett to move back to the right wing, Lafai play right centre and Inu or Morris to go to fullback... the alternative is bringing in Low - Barba's replacement from early in the season and leaving Lafai out. The good news for the Dogs is their forwards are getting back to full fitness. Brown had a hamstring scare against the Eels so he might also be a late scratching - in which case Low would probably get a run.
LATE UPDATE? Morris playing fullback, Williams to bench, Jackson starts.
The Postman's DT/SC TIP: Ben Barba will be out at LEAST a month if not the rest of the regular season... so send him packing in DT/SC land.
If you have a DT/SC question grab The Postman on Twitter @NRLTweet and I'll answer there.
What are your tips for Round 21? 
Are you taking any advice from our Awesome Foursome panel this year?
Let us know by commenting below or replying on Twitter.


@NRLTWEET's 2013 TIPPING RECORD 
TIPPING TOTAL AFTER 20 ROUNDS - 91/144 @ 63.2%
FOOTYTAB TOTAL AFTER 20 ROUNDS - 79/144 @ 54.9%
SPECIAL FRIED RICE involves each tipster taking a 'certainty' in a set order, with the tipster with the highest score at the end of the year literally winning a mountain of Special Fried Rice. The SFR Order rotates every week and is a fun way to put your rice where your mouth is.
ROUND 21 SELECTIONS | The Awesome Foursome
@NRLTweet
Warrick D. Nicolson, The NRL Tweet
TIPPING:
Knights Roosters Warriors Sea Eagles Rabbitohs Storm Titans Bulldogs
LW: 6/8 | SEASON: 91/144
FOOTYTAB:
BRI +6.5 SYD -10.5 WAR -4.5 MAN -14.5
SOU -6.5 MEL -2.5 WTG +8.5 STI +6.5
LW: 5/8 | SEASON: 79/144
Special Fried Rice: RABBITOHS over Cowboys (Has 4th Pick)
Season SFR: 15.5/20
CAN4 CBY3 SOU2 MEL1 CRO4 MAN3 SYD2 SYD1 SOU4 MEL3 NQL2 SOU1 MEL4 CRO3 CBY2 SOU1 SOU4 CBY3 CAN2 CBY1 SOU4
TIPPING:
Broncos Roosters Warriors Sea Eagles Cowboys Storm Tigers Dragons
LW: 4/8 | SEASON: 78/14
FOOTYTAB:
BRI +6.5 SYD -10.5 WAR -4.5 MAN -14.5
NQL +6.5 MEL -2.5 WTG +8.5 STI +6.5
LW: 3/8 | SEASON: 69/144
Special Fried Rice: STORM over Raiders (Has 2nd Pick)
Season SFR: 13/20
SOU2 SOU1 MAN4 PAR3 NQL2 MEL1 BRI4 WAR3 STI2 BRI1 NEW4 NEW3 CBY2 SOU1 MEL4 NEW3 SYD2 BRI1 WAR4 BRI3 MEL2
@Horry37
Jake Hauritz, Channel 9 Darwin
TIPPING:
Broncos Roosters Sharks Sea Eagles Rabbitohs Storm Titans Bulldogs
LW: 7/8 | SEASON: 99/144
FOOTYTAB:
BRI +6.5 PEN +10.5 CRO +4.5 MAN -14.5
SOU -6.5 MEL -2.5 GLD -8.5 CBY -6.5
LW: 7/8 | SEASON: 74/144
Special Fried Rice: SEA EAGLES over Eels (Has 1st Pick)
Season SFR: 14/20
MEL1 BRI4 MEL3 CRO2 MEL1 CAN4 NQL3 MEL2 MEL1 CAN4 MAN3 CBY2 SYD1 BRI4 CAN3 MEL2 MEL1 MAN4 MAN3 SOU2 MAN1
@MrDC
DC Chapman, League Lover
TIPPING:
Knights Roosters Warriors Sea Eagles Rabbitohs Storm Tigers Bulldogs
LW: 6/8 | SEASON: 88/144
FOOTYTAB:
NEW -6.5 SYD -10.5 WAR -4.5 MAN -14.5
SOU -6.5 MEL -2.5 WTG +8.5 STI +6.5
LW: 6/8 | SEASON: 62/144
Special Fried Rice: KNIGHTS over Broncos (Has 3rd Pick)
Season SFR: 14/20
NEW3 MAN2 CRO1 NEW4 SOU3 NEW2 MEL1 NEW4 BRI3 SOU2 SOU1 GLD4 PEN3 MEL2 SOU1 STI4 MAN3 PEN2 SOU1 MAN4 NEW3
The NRL Injury List is updated regularly during each week of the season, making it an invaluable Fantasy and Tipping Tool alongside our Weekly NRL Previews once again.
Remember if you want game-specific Late Mail every week, then check out our Round Previews Every Wednesday and they are updated with all the very latest Late Mail on Friday.
Who will take Ben Barba's mantle as champion in the 2013 @NRLTweet Player of the Year Awards?

 The Prestigious Award is underway for a 4th season in 2013.
@NRLTweet Player of the Year Award Voters:
Warrick Nicolson @NRLTweet | Nigel Wilbow @parramatters
Justin Davies @dragonpunk12 | Greg Delaney @gregdelaney84
Matt Spillane @devonhead | Matt Trodden @trods2906
Matt Vickers @mercurialmattyv | Ben Hoese @gunnermcdagget
Adrian McMurray @adrmcm | Matthew Duncan @mrpeninsula
Maria Tsialis @mtsialis | Ben Jones @benwah87
Jake Hauritz @horry37

Review all of the voting results from 2012 right here

Remember you can track all the votes each week after each match in 2013 via the Twitter hashtag #nrltweetpoty
By Warrick D. Nicolson