Latest NOT The Footy Show Podcasts

Sunday, 29 July 2012

NRL 2012: The Run Home to September... Your Team's Finals Chances

THE RUN HOME...
2012 NRL Playoff Push
By W D Nicolson 


So who plays in the meaningful games come September?

NOT The Footy Show has already taken you through each of the 13 teams who were still in contention entering Round 21 in our latest NRL Podcast - but with Round 21 now all but over - let's see where all the teams are placed with 5 games to go.

The results are predicted from Round 22 on, obviously there are variables that are not able to be taken into consideration when predicting games in the future - but this is our best guesstimate.


This is a guide to what might happen, it's impossible to say what will.


How do you see the Top 8 shaping up? Comment below.


Minor Premiership contenders...
CANTERBURY BULLDOGS
End Round 20: 1st (13-5 for 30pts, +156)
R21 - v Cowboys WIN 32-18
R22 - @ Knights WIN
R23 - v Broncos LOSS
R24 - v Tigers WIN
R25 - @ Raiders WIN
R26 - v Roosters WIN
Predicted Total: 5W 1L for 10 points, finish with 40 points
Predicted Finish: 1st

Thursday, 26 July 2012

NRL 2012: Round 21 NRL Preview Tips Teams Predictions Late Mail Podcast Odds

NRL ROUND 21 TIPPING PREVIEW
By W D Nicolson 

Well the good news is Billy Slater is back... the bad news if you are a Bulldogs fan with six rounds to go is - Melbourne will now win the Minor Premiership.

Sure Storm coach Craig Bellamy has openly stated that Slater is no magic cure but when you add one of the three best players in the world to one of the other three best players in the world with another player who is easily in the top ten players in the world - you get a team that could run the rest of the schedule and finish on 40 competition points.

I know the Dogs have been great and have won 8 in a row but they'll have to go at least 5-1 in their last 6 games and rely on improving their differential to hold out the Storm.

For a full look at how the 13 teams still in contention could play out their schedules - check out this link as of around lunchtime tomorrow/Friday.

But if you really want the scoop - just listen to this week's NOT The Footy Show Podcast.

| To Round 21 - and NOT The Footy Show has your NRL Podcast needs covered in Episode 117: The Round 21 Preview - with a record breaking 4 member panel show featuring Maria Tsialis, Jake Hauritz, DC Chapman and Warrick Nicolson in the studio to preview the Run to the Finals - which teams did we settle on making the Top 8? 
Grab the 77 minute Podcast right here.

Be sure to check all the Team news on the NRL Injured List which is updated every Tuesday afternoon - and the Podcast has plenty of insight on those selections and your Late Mail and Panel Picks are below.

| Full Round 21 Tips are Storm by 10, Titans by 6, Cowboys by 4, Sharks by 7, Sea Eagles by 4, Raiders by 6, Rabbitohs by 10 (if Marshall plays - Tigers by 2) and Broncos by 10.

| My 'Locks' are Melbourne and Brisbane; My 'Less than Confidents' are Sharks and Sea Eagles, while My 'Don't put the house on Its' are the Titans, Cowboys, Raiders and Rabbitohs.

In short - not an easy round to pick.

All the panel's picks are below with their Special Fried Rice selections and we have updated the NRL Injured List with all of this week's Late Mail as well as below in streamlined form.
NRL ROUND 21 PREVIEW - 2012
26/07 Odds are courtesy of Sportingbet Australia
For some more insight into the markets check out NOT The Footy Show's new resident tipster's site GT Tips http://www.gttips.co.uk
All Kick-Offs are LOCAL time.
Round 21 Late Mail... 
If you have any reputable mail - Let me know via @NRLTweet
DRAGONS (+5.5) $2.55 v $1.53 STORM
Billy Slater will play barring any Friday morning soreness in his knee. But the Storm will rest Todd Lowrie and Gareth Widdop, so look for Jaiman Lowe or Maurice Blair to come in on the bench and Rory Kostjasyn to start at five-eighth. Justin O'Neill might also be a late inclusion. The Dragons hope to get Nathan Fien back from a knee injury, but if he can't go then Cameron King or one of Leeson Ah Mau or Will Matthews will make the bench. Dean Young remains in doubt - with any member of the bench (most likely Jack de Belin) likely to start for him if he can't play. Another option is Beau Scott back into the forwards and young Nathan Green into the centres if Young is out. UPDATE: Soward is out, Fien to five-eighth, King onto bench, Ah Mau out and Young playing. Lowe in on bench, Kostjasyn starts.
ROOSTERS (+2.5) $2.20 v $1.70 TITANS
Michael Henderson didn't travel with the Titans so Dominique Peyroux is their 18th man. Greg Bird has declared himself ready to go, as has bench forward Ben Ridge and Nate Myles. The Roosters will have two rookies on the wing in the returning Tautau Moga and Roger Tuivasa-Sheck. Mitchell Aubusson could find himself at lock with Tinirau Arona moving to the bench. Martin Kennedy (head) and Lama Tasi (shoulder) are both in some doubt. UPDATE: Both team's 1-17.
BULLDOGS $1.65 v $2.30 COWBOYS (+3.5)
Kris Keating is long long long odds to play, so David Stagg is your likely five-eighth with Josh Reynolds just swapping jumpers, not roles, at halfback. Martin Taupau will be preferred to Harlan Alaalatoa on the bench. There's also a chance James Graham could start on the bench - again - and Dale Finucane play the first 10-15 minutes instead. The Cowboys should be 1-17 with Ray Thompson unlikely to push Michael Morgan out of the team after a win.
SHARKS $1.45 v $2.85 PANTHERS (+6.5)
Paul Gallen and Jeremy Smith are set to play - they only need to wake up on Saturday feeling okay and they'll play. There's a chance Jayson Bukuya could be moved to right centre to make room for Anthony Tupou in the run on team in the second row and Ricky Leutele would miss out. Jon Green and Tyson Frizell are the most likely bench players to miss out on a spot, especially if Wade Graham (sternum) is a late inclusion. The Panthers hope Michael Gordon is ready to return after completing training during the week, he would come in for Etu Uaisele on the wing. Luke Walsh is also under a fitness cloud due to an ongoing shoulder injury.
SEA EAGLES $1.52 v $2.60 WARRIORS (+5.5)
Officially Manly say Brett Stewart won't play but he's not exactly a PR machine so why would they take him to Perth if he wasn't going to playThen again, maybe it is because he wants to sow the seeds for his evolution into a Pirate - a West Coast Pirate, say in 2019 as a middle aged pensioner. Word is trickling through however that Dean Whare will definitely play and Stewart is giving his hammy at least another week's rest and just wanted to grab the extra frequent flyer miles. . Vic Mauro and Daniel Harrison would be the extra men in the stands. The Warriors might give Sebastine Ikahihifo his debut with Pita Godinet as 18th man. Otherwise the only possible change is a prop swap (but just a starter to the bench for Jacob Lillyman or Sione Lousi).
RAIDERS $1.57 v $2.47 KNIGHTS (+4.5)
Canberra will only make one change - and that would be Dane Tilse in for Sam Mataora or Mark Nicholls. Tilse needs to pass a fitness test on his ribs to be considered. Blake Ferguson has a smash snoz but will play. It's worth noting that Josh McCrone is Josh McCrone - but he'll overcome that disadvantage and pull on his #6 jersey. Newcastle will go with the same team as last week with Marvin Filipo 18th man.
RABBITOHS $1.26 v $4.00 TIGERS (+10.5)
Benji Marshall is in doubt with a bruised hand and a sore foot... but he's not out yet. Chris Lawrence, Ben Murdoch-Masila and Curtis Sironen are all OUT, with Tim Simona, Joel Reddy and Masada Iosefa the only not-named players who will definitely come in (or in Reddy and Iosefa's case - stay in). Tom Humble is a chance, as are a few wingers (John Grant, Marika Koroibete, Manaia Rudolph and David Nofoaluma) from the lower grades. There's also a chance Blake Aysford could miss with a back issue and Tim Moltzen is a 50/50 shot at overcoming a hamstring strain. Then there's Souths - no Greg Inglis so Nathan Merritt goes to fullback, Justin Hunt onto the wing and Shaune Corrigan and Josh Starling will be the leftover extras.
BRONCOS $1.28 v $3.85 EELS (+10.0)
Corey Parker's knee isn't 100% but he wants to play and credits the long turn-around (Friday to Monday) as the main reason why he will. Ben Te'o beat a suspension and will play, while Corey Norman's groin is a concern. Jack Reed wants to return soon from a leg injury but might be held back at least another week (same goes for Dale Copley - though they have been fitted with leg pads to protect the stitching in their legs - so maybe they play Monday?). With Te'o free to play - Matt Gillett could move to the centres and Gerard Beale to the wing with Aaron Whitchurch missing out. The Eels should be as named on Tuesday with Mitchell Allgood and Taulima Tautai fighting it out for the final bench spot.

For more on how we see the Weekend unfolding, check out the Podcast and Preview below.

Wednesday, 25 July 2012

NOT The Footy Show Episode 117 - Round 21 NRL Preview Podcast 2012

Top 8 Predictions: 
Analysing the Run Home for those teams left in contention.

It's a full house at the NOT The Footy Show studio in Episode 117 with Maria Tsialis making her first in-studio appearance to co-host our Run Home to the NRL Finals Special. She's joined by Jake Hauritz, DC Chapman and Warrick Nicolson in an hour of footy, fun and well that's it.

#AskMaria proves to be a massive hit - you won't want to miss her answers... Matthew Duncan didn't!

All 13 clubs still in contention for a playoff spot have their last 6 games analysed and we deliver our final Top 8s, plus we talk Greg Inglis, Travis Burns and how do we find solutions to Club Cover Ups.

And as always we give you a full odds preview of Round 21 with all our picks and Special Fried Rice selections.

NOT The Footy Show 77 minutes of Footy... enjoy it as a big old chunk of dribble.

NOT The Footy Show Episode 117
Round 21 NRL Preview - Released Wednesday July 25, 2012
Right Click Save Target As This Link if you don't have iTunes for the MP3 File.

Subscribe to the Podcast via this link / Download mp3 version

LIKE the show on Facebook for all the latest updates.
NOT The Footy Show will release another Podcast next Wednesday night - August 1 with our Round 22 Preview.

Friday, 20 July 2012

NRL 2012: Round 20 NRL Preview Tips Teams Predictions Late Mail Podcast Odds

NRL ROUND 20 TIPPING PREVIEW
By W D Nicolson 

Well we have 'allegedly' our first coach falling by the wayside of 2012 everyone in Parramatta's Stephen Kearney and while the timing makes very little sense (it's not like Brad Arthur and Chris Anderson are going to get the Eels to the Finals for crying out loud) it does bring up a sobering thought...

Just how badly treated was Daniel Anderson two years ago?

He took the Eels to the 2009 Grand Final by letting Jarryd Hayne play his natural game, then missed the Finals the next year due to Hayne's groin injury as much as anything else. Then the club decided to bring in Kearney from the coaching staff at the Storm and let Feleti Mateo and Krisnan Inu follow Anderson out the door... and they wonder - 2 years later - why they are in the NRL cellar?

It was bad enough watching Kearney trying to implement the Storm structure devoid of the 3 superstars (well 4 given Greg Inglis was on that team for a long time under Craig Bellamy) that are needed for the grinding discipline approach to be capitalised on when the game is there to be won.

Kearney had Hayne and... who?

He might have signed Chris Sandow and Ben Roberts to be his 2012 halves but in that Storm structure they were never going to fit as they are instinctive players - not disciplined players and Matthew Keating is not going to be confused with Cameron Smith at any point in reality or dreams.

The cold hard facts also back Anderson. In two years at the Eels he made the 2009 GF and won 25 of 52 games @ 48.1%... Kearney has missed the Finals both years and won just 9 games from 41 @ 22.0%.

Yes, it is actually possible that Stephen Kearney may end his first grade coaching career having never reached double figures for wins...

Wow.

To Round 20 - and NOT The Footy Show has your NRL Podcast needs covered with plenty on Manly v Canterbury, NRL Rivalries, the Minor Premiership race, and all our picks for this weekend in our 52 minute Podcast - grab it here.

Be sure to check all the Tuesday Team news on the NRL Injured List which is updated every Tuesday afternoon - and the Podcast has plenty of insight on those selections and your Late Mail and Panel Picks are below.

Full Round 20 Tips are Sea Eagles by 2, Broncos by 10, Warriors by 14, Storm by 16, Rabbitohs by 10, Sharks by 10, Roosters by 2 and Tigers by 1.

My 'Locks' are Melbourne, Brisbane and the Warriors; My 'Less than Confidents' are Manly, Souths and Sharks, while My 'Don't put the house on Its' are the Roosters and Tigers.

All the panel's picks are below with their Special Fried Rice selections and we have updated the NRL Injured List with all of this week's Late Mail as well as below in streamlined form.
NRL ROUND 20 PREVIEW - 2012
19/07 Odds are courtesy of Sportingbet Australia
For some more insight into the markets check out NOT The Footy Show's new resident tipster's site GT Tips http://www.gttips.co.uk
All Kick-Offs are LOCAL time.
Round 20 Late Mail... 
If you have any reputable mail - Let me know via @NRLTweet
SEA EAGLES $1.70 v $2.20 BULLDOGS (+2.5)
Glenn Stewart is apparently ready to play, so Daniel Harrison is likely to be pushed to the bench or out of the squad entirely. Brett Stewart could be a late inclusion but don't hold your breath Manly fans. Steve Matai will return from the flu. The Dogs got Sam Kasiano cleared from his tackle on FuiFui MoiMoi that left the Parramatta prop 'Kasianoed', and Martin Taupau will remain 18th man.
(+6.0) TITANS $2.67 v $1.50 BRONCOS
Ashley Harrison (toe) will not play, so Matt White (or Luke O'Dwyer) could start and Luke Douglas would shift into the second row. Aidan Sezer wants to play but his wrist injury isn't going to make things comfortable if he does. Brisbane should be 1-17 although Dunamis Lui could make a late appearance on the bench at the expense of Mitchell Dodds.
WARRIORS $1.28 v $3.85 KNIGHTS (+10.0)
The Warriors will get Konrad Hurrell back, with Steve Rapira likely to beat Omar Slaimankhel for the final bench spot. Newcastle expect to have Marvin Filipo as 18th man with Neville Costigan seemingly ready to make a return from an arm injury.
(+13.5) EELS $5.15 v $1.18 STORM
The Eels have been putting Jarryd Hayne through some agility drills this week but have maintained he won't be back til next weekend at the earliest, but with a new coach - who knows? Taulima Tautai or Mitchell Allgood would miss out on a bench spot if Ben Roberts holds his. Is this the week Cooper Cronk gets his promised rest from Craig Bellamy? Seems as good a time as any to do it for Melbourne... if they weren't in a slump right now. Dane Nielsen should return from an arm injury, while Ben Hampton shapes as Cronk's possible replacement if rested.
RABBITOHS $1.60 v $2.40 DRAGONS (+4.5)
Greg Inglis and Adam Reynolds expect to play despite knee and ankle injuries, while Nathan Peats is the new #9 with Issac Luke suspended. Dave Tyrrell or Ben Lowe will join the bench, unless Michael Maguire goes for a utility player on the bench to spell Peats. The Dragons will not have Nathan Fien (knee), while Jake Marketo, Jack de Belin or Josh Miller could miss out if Cameron King is picked to replace Fien. Jamie Soward should play.
SHARKS $1.45 v $2.80 RAIDERS (+6.5)
Paul Gallen will probably be given another week off, while Jeremy Smith is a chance to return from a knee injury. Wade Graham has shaken off a sternum injury and will play. Jon Green is set to be 18th man. The Raiders want Josh Dugan to get through another training session before considering him, and any member of the three-quarter line not named Blake Ferguson could make way if Dugan returns at fullback. If he goes into the halves, there might be a chance Josh McCrone goes to hooker and Travis Waddell misses out... but that might be being optimistic and Sam Williams is dropped instead. Dane Tilse is not expected back but don't completely rule it out.
PANTHERS $1.80 v $2.05 ROOSTERS (+1.5)
Luke Lewis will play despite a neck injury, but Michael Gordon is still not in the mix... or is he? Brad Tighe or Dave Simmons would make way if Flash returns. Matt Robinson or Mitch Achurch miss out for Penrith. The Roosters will give Lama Tasi until Sunday to prove he's over a shoulder complaint, while Daniel Mortimer could still find his way onto the bench for Nafe Seluini.
COWBOYS $1.67 v $2.25 TIGERS (+3.5)
The Cowboys bench has been settled with Scott Bolton beating out Cory Paterson for the finals spot, while Ray Thompson is a long shot to play. The Tigers will leave Ray Cashmere to play NSW Cup, so Joel Reddy and Junior Moors are likely to play. Gareth Ellis is a definite starter.

For more on how we see the Weekend unfolding, check out the Podcast and Preview below.

Wednesday, 18 July 2012

NOT The Footy Show Episode 116 - Round 20 NRL Preview Podcast 2012

Who is Des Hasler? 


At least one NOT The Footy Show expert has no idea.

Get NOT The Footy Show Episode 116 and hear Warrick Nicolson, Maria Tsialis, George Taylor and Eyes as they talk Manly v Canterbury, the Best Rivalries in the NRL (or are there any?), Best Game or Best Ending - Yes there's a difference, rethink the Minor Premiership race and we give you the Best Bets of Round 20.


We also reveal the NRLTweet Player of the Year Award Table - who has joined Billy Slater at the top of the votes?


Plus a full odds preview of Round 20 with all our picks and Special Fried Rice selections.

NOT The Footy Show 52 minutes of Footy... what else do you need?

NOT The Footy Show Episode 116
Round 20 NRL Preview - Released Wednesday July 18, 2012

Right Click Save Target As This Link if you don't have iTunes for the MP3 File.

Subscribe to the Podcast via this link / Download mp3 version

LIKE the show on Facebook for all the latest updates.
NOT The Footy Show will release another Podcast next Wednesday night - July 25 with our Round 21 Preview and 'Run to the Finals' Special.

Thursday, 12 July 2012

NRL 2012: Round 19 NRL Preview Tips Teams Predictions Late Mail Podcast Odds

NRL ROUND 19 TIPPING PREVIEW
By W D Nicolson 

With just eight rounds to go - so we are more than 2/3rds of the way through the season people - the Finals Race is getting very interesting. And to think that about 7 days ago people were rather prematurely declaring that the current Top 8 entering Round 18 would not change at all.

NOT The Footy Show has your NRL Rookie of the Year Special and our Round 19 Preview is in the same 71 minute Podcast - grab it here.

Unless there are any objections the Preview will remain in this streamlined form for the rest of 2012 you can get all the Tuesday Team news on the NRL Injured List which is updated every Tuesday afternoon - and besides, the Podcast has plenty of insight and your Late Mail and Picks are below.

Full Round 19 Tips are Bulldogs by 12, Broncos by 6, Storm by 14, Sea Eagles by 10, Tigers by 7, Raiders by 4, Sharks by 2 and Rabbitohs by 12.

My 'Locks' are Bulldogs, Melbourne, Sea Eagles and Rabbitohs, My 'Less than Confidents' are Brisbane and the Tigers, while My 'Don't put the house on Its' are the Raiders and Sharks.

All the panel's picks are below with their Special Fried Rice selections and we have updated the NRL Injured List with all of this week's Late Mail as well as below in streamlined form.
NRL ROUND 19 PREVIEW - 2012
12/07 Odds are courtesy of Sportingbet Australia


For some more insight into the markets check out NOT The Footy Show's new resident tipster's site GT Tips http://www.gttips.co.uk
All Kick-Offs are LOCAL time.

Round 19 Late Mail... If you have any reputable mail - Let me know via @NRLTweet
Bulldogs $1.13 v $6.35 Eels
The Dogs will choose between Corey Payne, Josh Jackson and Dale Finucane for their final two bench spots, while Parramatta won't have Matt Keating who is out for the rest of the year and Nathan Smith is expected to deputise for the second straight week. Jarryd Hayne is not expected to play. There is some late mail that Jake Mullaney has the flu and could be replaced by Cheyse Blair with Luke Burt shifting to fullback.
Broncos $1.50 v $2.67 Warriors
Brisbane have confirmed that Dunamis Lui will be 18th man and Mitchell Dodds gets the final spot on the bench. Konrad Hurrell is believed to still be in New Zealand, so don't count on him playing, while Sebastine Ikahihifo or Steve Rapira will be 18th man. Manu Vatuvei is good to go.
Knights $3.15 v $1.38 Sea Eagles
Newcastle have lost Neville Costigan and Robbie Rachow comes in for the only change for the Knights, while Manly won't have Brett Stewart and Glenn Stewart is a game time decision (but unlikely). Daniel Harrison would come in at lock, while Dean Whare is the fullback. Vic Maruo will be 18th man unless there are any late changes in the forwards and Michael Oldfield is the man most likely to be on standby for Jorge Taufua if the named winger's quad isn't 100%.
Storm $1.53 v $2.57 Cowboys
Cooper Cronk might (we stress might) rest this week as his coach says he will have a game off sooner rather than later but given the Storm will have a full week between games - he probably plays this weekend. Billy Slater likely won't be brought back til Round 20. The Cowboys might come up with any number of combinations for their final bench - and Ray Thompson's shoulder is still a concern so Michael Morgan may make the final squad.
Tigers $1.24 v $4.25 Panthers
Adam Blair misses with suspension and Gareth Ellis is considered not quite ready (though he might still play) to replace him. So expect Matthew Bell to start in the backrow. Joel Reddy is the standby player for Tim Moltzen who has missed time with a hamstring strain. Robbie Farah will play. Penrith will decide between Matt Robinson or Dayne Weston for their final bench spot, while Luke Walsh, Sam McKendry and Josh Mansour should all play. The only question is whether Michael Gordon is a late addition for Brad Tighe or David Simmons.
Raiders $1.53 v $2.57 Titans
Canberra will decide between Sam Mataora and Mark Nicholls for their final bench spot, while Josh Dugan won't be back til likely next round. The Titans have doubts over Nate Myles and Luke Bailey (now expected to play) with Ryan James on standby to come in for whoever doesn't play. James might even play at the expense of Luke O'Dwyer or Beau Falloon if Bailey and Myles play. Matthew White is also in doubt with a head issue.
Dragons $1.62 v $2.35 Sharks
Josh Miller will likely miss for the Dragons, while Ben Creagh and Beau Scott are ready to go. Mark Taufua or Jon Green probably miss out for the Sharks, with Anthony Tupou and Tyson Frizell likely to be favoured for bench spots. Jayson Bukuya is a good chance of playing after missing last weekend with an ankle injury. Cronulla are hoping Isaac Gordon and Colin Best have recovered from the flu in time. Jeremy Smith and Paul Gallen were ruled out by Cronulla on Thursday afternoon... allegedly.
Roosters $3.25 v $1.36 Rabbitohs
Braith Anasta plays game 250 at home, while Jared Waerea-Hargreaves is suspended for a week. If another forward isn't brought in, Mitchell Aubusson could go into the lock position and Frank-Paul Nuuausala to prop. Adam Henry, Daniel Tupou or Roger Tuivasa-Sheck could be in line for a start on the wing if Brian Smith moves Aubusson to the pack. Souths will choose between George Burgess, Ben Lowe and Dave Tyrrell for their final bench spot, while Sam and Luke Burgess will play.

For more on how we see the Weekend unfolding, check out the Podcast and Preview below.

Wednesday, 11 July 2012

NOT The Footy Show Episode 115 - Rookie of the Year Special and Round 19 NRL Preview Podcast 2012

The NRL Rookie of the Year is?

Get NOT The Footy Show Episode 115 and find out who Maria Tsialis, Matthew Duncan, Jake Hauritz and Warrick Nicolson select as their NRL Rookie of the Year and most importantly, which 2012 Rookie will emerge as the best player long term?

The three favourites for the 2012 Rookie of the Year are:

Adam Reynolds from Souths, Konrad Hurrell from the Warriors and Aidan Sezer from the Titans.

We also discuss the various theories surrounding Luke Lewis leaving Penrith, talk to George Rose from Manly about his 100th game, try to explain how the NRL arrives at their picks for 'Rivalry Round' and also list the 2012 All-Rookie Team.

Plus a full odds preview of Round 19 with all our picks and Special Fried Rice selections.

NOT The Footy Show will also be having Maria in the studio as co-host in the not too distant future - can't wait for that. In the meantime enjoy your 71 minute dose of NRL Podcast goodness.

NOT The Footy Show Episode 115
Rookie of the Year Special and Round 19 NRL Preview - Released Wednesday July 11, 2012
 
Right Click Save Target As This Link if you don't have iTunes for the MP3 File.

Subscribe to the Podcast via this link / Download mp3 version

LIKE the show on Facebook for all the latest updates.

NOT The Footy Show will release another Podcast next Wednesday night - July 18 with our Round 20 Preview show.

Saturday, 7 July 2012

State of Origin 2012: NSW close but Queensland get 7th cigar | 2012 Origin Ratings

STATE OF ORIGIN 2012
QLD 21 def. NSW 20 in Game 3
By W D Nicolson, July 7, 2012


NSW 20-21 QLD
QUEENSLAND 21 
(D Boyd, J Thurston, J Hodges Tries; J Thurston 4/5 Goals, C Cronk 1 Field Goal)
Defeated
NEW SOUTH WALES 20 
(B Morris, B Stewart, J Morris Tries; T Carney 4/4 Goals)
@ Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane, July 4, 2012
QLD retain Series 2-1.
Official Man of the Match: Johnathan Thurston (QLD)
Official Man of the Series: Nate Myles (QLD)
So it's Queensland's for at least one more year...

It's being the State of Origin Shield and one more year being seven in a row.

Just typing that out is painful, so you can imagine how most genuine New South Welsh Men and Women felt shortly around 10pm on Wednesday evening.

Shattered is probably the most apt description.

In fact shortly after letting some friends out of my building after fulltime, I was riding back up in the lift and seriously considered spending the night in the elevator as it seemed like a nice place to escape the reality of the following Origin Series results:

Queensland
Queensland
Queensland
Queensland
Queensland
Queensland
and then this year...
Queensland.

At what point - people say - do we just give up, admit Queensland are the superior state and go back to what really matters... following Parramatta.

Well if you believe that and call yourself a real footy fan then you need more than just your head read.

As much as 'regular people' want to tell you after the game that 'it's just a football match' and 'don't worry there's always next year' - it seems to me that they have missed the point of what Origin has become.

As a colleague said on Friday - two days after the result - he was just as gutted and was adamant that Origin transcends beyond just a football match.

And he's spot on.

Yes there are certainly more things that everyone should pay more attention to and consider more important - I'm not ignoring that fact - but it is important that people who say ridiculous stuff to genuine footy fans after a result like Wednesday night, realise that for 3 nights a year - Origin is just about as important as life gets.

Now I've never bought into the rather too common mindset that 'my actual weekend is ruined if my team loses' - that sadly some club footy fans seem to live and die by - because when a team has 24 games a year to use in order to qualify for the Finals - a single game in May does NOT and should NOT play those tricks on a person's mind.

But Origin is a different beast.

Only actual Finals Football - when your team is facing elimination with a loss - joins this echelon of following footy.

And only Grand Finals can go beyond the exhilaration or despair that is experienced when the Origin Series is decided.

Because like it or not - there IS something on the line that goes beyond the actual scoreline.

And generally that's 6-12 months of feeling great about that glorious moment of victory or feeling downright catatonic about a rather less favourable result.

For NSW fans, that initial feeling (post winning Game 3 in 2005) hasn't been experienced in 2,558 days... and the sense of holding the crown as the series holder has been absent for 2,194 days.

Think about that for a second, as bad as '7 in a row' might sound, the fact NSW fans can't experience the joy of winning until nearly 3,000 days elapse is incomprehensible.

If you hadn't witnessed it with your own eyes.


Full Game 3 Player Ratings and FULL SERIES Evaluations below.

Friday, 6 July 2012

NRL 2012: Round 18 NRL Preview Tips Teams Predictions Late Mail Podcast Odds

NRL ROUND 18 TIPPING PREVIEW
By W D Nicolson 

Well Origin 3 has been run and won by - you guessed it - Queensland.

Boring!

NOT The Footy Show has your Origin 3 Recap Podcast here and our Round 18 Preview is in the same 70 minute Podcast - grab it here.

Sorry - no full Preview this week on the site - the Podcast has plenty of insight but the Late Mail and Picks are below.

Full Round 18 Tips are Bulldogs by 4, Storm by 16, Warriors by 10, Rabbitohs by 12, Sea Eagles by 20 and the Roosters by 2 (will likely tip Sharks if Paul Gallen plays however).

My 'Locks' are Storm, Sea Eagles and Rabbitohs. My 'Less than Confidents' are Warriors and Bulldogs, while My 'Don't put the house on Its' are the Roosters if Paul Gallen doesn't play.

All the panel's picks are below with their Special Fried Rice selections. I have updated the NRL Injured List with all of this week's Late Mail as well as below in streamlined form.


Round 18 Late Mail... If you have any reputable mail - Let me know via @NRLTweet
Tigers v Bulldogs
Robbie Farah misses after getting KO'd in Origin 3, Masada Iosefa will start with Tom Humble likely to get a run on the bench. Joel Reddy will be 18th man and Gareth Ellis likely won't be back til next week. There are also rumblings that Matt Utai could miss, meaning Reddy would come onto the wing. The Dogs expect Josh Morris to backup from Origin 3 with Dale Finucane or Josh Jackson to miss out on a spot on the bench if Greg Eastwood is fit to play.
Storm v Raiders
Cameron Smith is set to start off the bench if Craig Bellamy is consistent from past Origin follow-up games, while Cooper Cronk (may not actually play, rumour around that he might be rested so beware!) and Dane Nielsen will start. Ryan Hinchcliffe would then start at hooker and that means Rory Kostjasyn could make the bench at the expense of props Siosaia Vave and Jaiman Lowe. Canberra have David Shillington backing up, Joel Thompson will play despite a hand injury and Matt McIlwrick could still be a late withdrawal for the return of Shaun Berrigan. Mark Nicholls or Sam Mataora will be the final reserve.
Titans v Warriors
Greg Bird will miss and possibly a month or more with a pec injury, and Nate Myles is OUT with a sore head. Expect Matthew White to start and Luke Douglas to go to the backrow - unless Luke Bailey decides to wait another week before returning (Bailey will not play). If so then Luke O'Dwyer would start and Ryan James and Michael Henderson would come into the mix for the bench. Steve Michaels or Phil Graham are the logical replacements if David Mead withdraws due to the death of his father mid-week or any of the other three-quarters succumb to injury (William Zillman, Jamal Idris or Beau Champion). Pita Godinet is the 18th man for the Warriors, with Manu Vatuvei not likely to be brought back until Round 19 despite running at training before the team flew to the Gold Coast.
Rabbitohs v Knights
Greg Inglis will backup with his elbow injury actually improving lately despite his workload. Sam Burgess is fine after his first run in a while last week, with Shaune Corrigan and George Burgess to miss out. Darius Boyd backs up and Kyle O'Donnell will probably miss out so Chris Adams is available to spell Danny Buderus at some stage in the game.
Sea Eagles v Eels
Tony Williams and Anthony Watmough weren't 100% during Origin 3 but they should join Brett Stewart in backing up. Vic Mauro and Dean Whare (on standby for David Williams) probably miss out, while Daniel Harrison might beat out Joe Galuvao or Darcy Lussick for a spot on the bench even if Glenn Stewart (knee) isn't fit to play. The Eels won't have Jarryd Hayne (out a week if not three with an ankle sprain), so Willie Tonga gets a reprieve in the centres and Luke Burt is the fullback.
Sharks v Roosters
Todd Carney will play but Paul Gallen remains 50/50 with a dodgy knee. The MNF game helps his chance of playing but with Jayson Bukuya (ankle) in doubt and Jeremy Smith (suspension) out - the Sharks look vulnerable. Andrew Fifita hopes to make a return from appendicitis, as does Anthony Tupou who has been out for most of the season. Shaun Kenny-Dowall is back for the Roosters and the Roosters need him, Mitchell Pearce will backup.



For more on how we see the Weekend unfolding, check out the Podcast and Preview below.

Thursday, 5 July 2012

NOT The Footy Show Episode 114 - Round 18 NRL Preview and Origin 3 Recap Podcast 2012

Okay Queensland we get it, you're good. Just stop rubbing it in.

Get NOT The Footy Show Episode 114 as a rather relieved QLDer Matthew Duncan joins vanquished NSW hosts Warrick Nicolson and Dave Chapman as they try to muster the strength to recap QLD's 21-20 win over NSW in Origin 3 to win SEVEN SERIES IN A ROW! 


Maria Tsialis also stops by to open the show and offers reasons for NSW fans to go on and George Taylor delivers his best bets on Round 18.

Plus a full odds preview of Round 18 with all our picks and Special Fried Rice selections.

NOT The Footy Show congratulates Queensland on winning... again. But we don't have to like it!

NOT The Footy Show Episode 114
Origin 3 Recap and Round 18 NRL Preview - Released Wednesday July 5, 2012
Right Click Save Target As This Link if you don't have iTunes for the MP3 File.

Subscribe to the Podcast via this link / Download mp3 version

LIKE the show on Facebook for all the latest updates.

NOT The Footy Show will release another Podcast next Wednesday night - July 11 with our Round 19 Preview show.

You can watch or listen the whole show that was streamed live via a replay you can start at any time here http://www.ustream.tv/channel/not-the-footy-show.

Tuesday, 3 July 2012

State of Origin 2012: NSW v QLD Game 3 Preview

STATE OF ORIGIN 2012
NSW v QLD GAME 3 PREVIEW
By W D Nicolson, July 02, 2012
NSW are exactly where they were 12 months ago... only the pain of losing seven straight Origin Series will - I guarantee - be worse than losing six.

But can NSW actually win Game 3 and actually WIN a State of Origin Series for the first time since 2005?

You bet they can.

Now, whether they can or whether they will are two different things but there are at least four good reasons why NSW can win.

No Ashley Harrison - Heart and soul type in the QLD backrow who does all the little things his more heralded team-mates need done to be successful.

No Dave Taylor - Game changing forward omitted for a good club player in Ben Te'o. It makes no sense to replace Taylor with another hot and cold type in Te'o and every NSW man and woman breathed a lot easier when Mal Meninga panicked and dropped DT.

No Billy Slater - Easily in the Top 3 players in the game conversation if not the actual best, his ability to WIN games with a moment or a full game of brilliance is going to really really really be missed by the Maroons.

And finally...

No Darren Lockyer - The great man who inspired the QLD turnaround (remember he experienced NSW's 3 straight series wins from 2002-2004) has not played in this series at all due to the fact he retired at the end of 2011 - but he is arguably an even bigger loss than Slater for Game 3.

The reason is Lockyer really knew what losing a series to NSW is like and that no doubt whatsoever drove him to make the current QLD dynasty continue while he was in the team.

But he's gone now and only Johnathan Thurston, Cameron Smith, Petero Civoniceva, Brent Tate and Justin Hodges know what losing a series feels like amongst the QLD team, and the other two that have been in the squad this series - Slater and Harrison won't play.

Don't underestimate the value of the fear of losing, and it will fall to Smith, Civoniceva and Thurston to remind all the 'winners' in the QLD camp that losing downright sucks at Origin level.

Mind you, only Luke Lewis and Anthony Watmough have experienced a series NSW have actually won - so maybe the above stat is negated a little.

But not by much - NSW want nothing more than to win on Wednesday night, while the vast majority of QLDers don't know what it is like to lose.

That is advantage NSW. Six straight series wins or not... And that means NSW can win.

And quite frankly, they have to.

What are your thoughts on Game 3? Comment below or hit me up on Twitter @NRLTweet

PODCAST PREVIEW HERE

LATEST TEAM NEWS 30/6
Glenn Stewart is out for NSW, replaced in the starting team by either Beau Scott or Ben Creagh. Trent Merrin has already been cut. Brett Morris will play left wing and Jarryd Hayne moves to the right.
Billy Slater is out for QLD, Greg Inglis to fullback and Dane Nielsen into the centres. Dave Taylor has been cut and Ben Te'o is on the bench. Matt Bowen is 18th man and there is even talk that Dave Taylor could come in for Matt Gillett before kick-off!

Game 3 kicks-off at around 8:00pm on Wednesday July 4 at Suncorp Stadium in Brisbane.

NOT The Footy Show Episode 113
Origin 3 and Round 17 NRL Preview - Released Wednesday June 27, 2012
Right Click Save Target As This Link if you don't have iTunes for the MP3 File.


LIKE the show on Facebook for all the latest updates.
NOT The Footy Show will release another Podcast next Thursday night - July 5 with our Origin 3 Review Show.


GAME 3 PREDICTIONS

The Game 1 and 2 leaderboard is in and the author is covering the rest of you like ash from a volcano... getting the Game 2 score 100% right kind of helped, but a perfect effort in Game 3 could vault you into the lead.

We have changed up the Exotic Over/Unders for Game 3 to keep it fresh, but the basic categories stay the same. There is a weighted scoring system - essentially pick the score kicks butt over anything else (up to 5 points for a Full Time Correct Score), while the 1st tryscorer, Man of the Match, 1st Error markets etc are worth 1 point each and any correct Over/Under is worth half a point.

Here we go with our Game 3 Predictions. Post your predictions either below or on our NRL Podcast Facebook Entry Form.
GAME 3 PREDICTIONS