CLIVE CHURCHILL MEDAL MARKET
2013 NRL Premiership Grand Final
By W D Nicolson - October 6, 2013
The actual Clive Churchill Medal market and our market of actual contenders per traditional picks
| GRAND FINAL PREDICTIONS | GRAND FINAL PODCAST |
The
Clive Churchill Medal for the Best Player in the Grand Final has traditionally been a far better judged award than it's regular season brother - the Dally M - but it still tends to follow the same science to a degree... big name player who has a half decent game, is going to beat out a lesser known player who has an outstanding one.
But generally you can't argue too strongly with a one game award like this, unlike the way this year's (and previous years) Dally M votes unfolded at the back end of the season however... okay, let's stick with the Clive Churchill talk for now.
The CCM was introduced in 1986 and Peter Sterling won the inaugural award in Parramatta's 4-2 win over Canterbury
Take a look at the winners and you'll note there's been winners from halfback, five-eighth, lock, prop, second row, hooker and fullback... but no love at all for centres and wingers.
Is this the year Jamie Lyon or Michael Jennings buck the centre snub? Or will Roger Tuivasa-Sheck or Jorge Taufua make another huge case for a winger to get the nod but ultimately they won't win after the incredibly snubbings of Michael Robertson in 2008 and Jason Nightingale in 2010?
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| Cronk won in 2012 - who wins in 2013? |
Well Lyon and Jennings have some chance... if the game has some serious points, otherwise it's looming as either a half/five-eighth, a backrower or maybe a prop to get the award this year.
This year we ran
The @NRLTweet Player of the Year Awards for the 4th straight season - won by Johnathan Thurston, and for the 2nd year
The @NRLTweet Player of the Finals will be awarded (Voting 4-2-1 x 3 voters in Weeks 1-3) - with the Grand Final Voting panel as follows - all handing out 5-3-2-1 Votes, with the Man of the Match capable of winning the Player of the Finals gong - given they can get up to 25 votes from the Grand Final alone.
The Finals Leaderboard is currently silent as to not influence the GF Voters on GF day, but all the votes and final leaderboard can be found via
#NRLTweetPlayerofFinals tag after the game.
| Ben Hoese
@gunnermcdagget Matthew Duncan
@mrpeninsula Greg Delaney
@gregdelaney84 Matt Spillane
@devonhead Warrick Nicolson
@NRLTweet |
Track live Grand Final votes via #NRLTweetPlayerofFinals - Announcing the Man of the Match and Player of the Finals after full-time and voting 5-3-2-1.
Whoever wins our Player of the Finals (and is announced as the Man of the Match) does not necessarily mean they'll win the Clive Churchill Medal though... but it'll be a good guide as to who maybe should have won it.
Here is our breakdown of the Grand Final players - in order - of who we think will be awarded the Clive Churchill Medal because A. They are great players, B. They could play great in this game and C. The Australian selectors love them - which is more important than A and B.
CLIVE CHURCHILL MEDAL FAVOURITES
MARKET ODDS
- Daly CHERRY-EVANS, Manly | $6
He'll dictate the kicking game, make 20+ tackles, set up a try or two and run the ball a lot. He's a bit Allan Langer-esque but with a long kicking game... so I think it is time to get his CCM.
- Sonny Bill WILLIAMS, Roosters | $6
We all know how good he is... if he makes a difference in a significant Roosters win - he gets it ahead of the next guy on this list.
- James MALONEY, Roosters | $7
I think he's been fantastic this Finals Series - but he probably needs a try and a try assist or two to edge out SBW if the Chooks win this by 7+. Perfect day with the boot - at goal and in general play will help his cause.
- Jamie LYON, Sea Eagles | $11
Everybody loves Jamie these days... may not play rep footy anymore but the Australian Selectors won't hesitate to give him the CCM if Manly score all their points down the right and he's on song with his kicking boot. Playing great don't get me wrong but certainly a 'favourite'.
- Kieran FORAN, Sea Eagles | $9
When he's on - Manly are on. His kick-chase is without pier in the game and his tenacity makes good things happen. When Manly need a lift he'll provide it... sets up two tries and he's a chance. But needs a monumental game to beat out the guys ahead of him on reputation.
- Mitchell PEARCE, Roosters | $11
Just can't see it... then again I'm not selecting the NSW team either. Had a strong running game v Newcastle so he's playing well but is he the calibre of player to walk away with a CCM in a team he shares with SBW and Maloney and JWH etc? Just don't see it sorry.
- Jared WAEREA-HARGREAVES, Roosters | $13
If the game is played almost exclusively in the middle like the Roosters will want to - especially in the opening 30 minutes - JWH can make a compelling case. He tops 20 tackles and say 12 runs for 120m in his opening stint and the stats junkies on the judging panel will have to take notice... If it's 12-10 or very low scoring and his numbers are huge by fulltime - he can win it.
- Brett STEWART, Sea Eagles | $17
Has made Manly a premiership threat in the back end of the year when able to run... scores a couple of trademark Snake tries and he can put his name up in lights... certainly has earned the tag as an indispensable piece of the Manly puzzle this year (and Peta Hiku has been a fantastic replacement).
- Anthony WATMOUGH, Sea Eagles | $17
Soldier has bung knees but will try and play 80 minutes again... if he was fully fit he might walk away with this award given his value at key moments but I'm struggling to believe he'll be able to have a huge impact with his knee problems. Still... can play.
- Glenn STEWART, Sea Eagles | $11
Won it in 2011 and played great, not quite up to speed this year but has shown glimpses and that's all you need in a Grand Final with a good reputation in big games. Doubt he'll win it over DCE or Lyon if the Manly right edge goes nuts - so that price is not good value.
- Michael JENNINGS, Roosters | $34
Needs a BIG Roosters win to get into the conversation and probably the first or second try (and multiple tries to boot). His best chance of winning beyond that is to totally shut down Lyon's attacking game and carve up the Manly centre when the Roosters have the pill... tall ask but one good judge I know actually thinks he's a BIG chance.
- Jake FRIEND, Roosters | $11
Sorry Jake... hookers don't win this unless they are unbelievable on Grand Final day and set up some tries as well... just can't see it. Terrible odds as well that short.
- Matt BALLIN, Sea Eagles | $21
Ditto for Matt... may make a Grand Final record for tackles (beating Nathan Hindmarsh's 60-odd in 2009) but he needs more than his machine like defence to enter the equation.
- Boyd CORDNER, Roosters | $26
While he may struggle with the pace of the game after so long out - and physically he may not be up to it after a bad ankle sprain - you can never count out a player with plenty of ability and the fairytale comeback story... Don't think it can happen, but can't rule him out for the CCM.
- Any of the wingers... if life was fair after you scored a hat-trick you should be considered but likely won't. Taufua | $41, Tuivasa-Sheck | $41, Tupou | $51, Williams | $51.
- But really stop the fight - no other player is getting this award.
Sorry Brenton Lawrence | $34, Sam Moa | $34 and Brent Kite | $34, sorry Steve Matai | $34 and Anthony Minichiello | $21, sorry bench players (ranging from Buhrer | $41 to Rose/Gower at | $151 , sorry Aidan Guerra | $26, Justin Horo | $26 and Frank-Paul Nu'uausala | $41 and sorry Shaun Kenny-Dowall | $51 - you've got the least hope of I reckon anyone... even if you play superbly, they won't give it to a centre without the profile of a Lyon or Jennings.
My pick is DCE, narrowly ahead of Kieran Foran - who I think might be the most influential player on the field but I've got Manly winning 17-16 via a late regulation or extra time field goal from DCE - so he'll win the CCM if he kicks the winning point.
If you want value as a punter - JWH and Watmough represent the best chances in the forwards at odds, while Lyon even at $11 might be the sneaky pick given everyone loves Jamie these days. Brett Stewart isn't bad value at $17, and while Tupou might have a field day over Williams in the air so his $51 is crazy but it'll go to the guy kicking the ball people...
If you want our Preview and other predictions for Grand Final Day -
go here - or simply keep scrolling.
Make sure you take an hour out of your day to listen to our Grand Final Podcast with a host of interviews with Manly players and James Maloney from the Roosters.
But most of all - enjoy what is shaping up as potentially the best Grand Final since 2006.
Who is your Clive Churchill Medallist?
Let us know by commenting below or replying on Twitter.
