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Wednesday, 17 July 2013

#Origin 2013: Why - somehow - NSW are an even money bet in #theDecider | Game 3 Picks and Analysis

THE DECIDER: Yes... NSW can win The Decider tonight.

2013 NRL Premiership

By W D Nicolson - July 17, 2013

The DECIDER is TONIGHT at a sold-out ANZ Stadium - so www.wdnicolson.com gives you 3 reasons why NSW should enter this game thinking they can win.

How NSW can win... pity I don't think they will
Track Game 3 Origin Player of the Series Voting via #OriginMOTM Votes
NSW can win Game 3 tonight at ANZ Stadium and end a painfully long series drought at the hands of what has been a superior QLD team.

I'm going on record - tonight's DECIDER is winnable.

But if NSW do pull off what is becoming an increasingly impossible task (news through this morning Luke Lewis's shoulder is not good) - they have to take care of ALL three areas of the game below. One or two won't cut it - all three have to mesh in Game 3 for QLD to finally be vanquished as State of Origin Champions.

And although NSW start as $2.50 outsiders... at home in Game 3 - I sincerely think that if the Blues show up and take care of the 3 factors below, they are an even money chance against the greatness that is QLD's current core.

HERE ARE THE THREE NON-NEGOTIABLE FACTORS IF NSW WANT TO WIN...

#1... NSW's forwards have no choice but to aim up in the opening sets and strike when the bench comes into play...

Game 1 was won by NSW in the first two sets... Game 2 was won by QLD in the first two sets... Surely neither side's forward pack will roll over and let Game 3 be won in the first two sets?

NSW's starting team has a big job to nullify Matt Scott, Nate Myles, Corey Parker and Sam Thaiday's go-forward... but the bench of Andrew Fifita, Trent Merrin, Boyd Cordner and Anthony Watmough probably have a more important job of getting NSW the ascendancy when they come into the game against the QLD bench.

If NSW want to give themselves every chance of victory - they MUST dominate when the bench comes into play... so Andrew Fifita - the time is now sunshine to turn club form into Origin form. He is the key to this factor - and watch for the NSW halves to sniff around him for an offload.

#2... Half chances must be turned into points by the NSW backs...

Jennings, McManus and the Morris twins must take their chances and finish. They might only get 2 or 3 quality chances all night - but they must take full advantage and get NSW points. If NSW blow chance after chance early... QLD will punish them. And if any of the backs get into the clear (especially Josh Dugan) - they must look for James Maloney and Mitchell Pearce backing up as they are natural support players.

Don't blow chances NSW... or you blow the series.

#3... The Most Important Factor: Farah...

His name is Robbie Farah and boy - he's got his work cut out for him. He's good enough people... but if the NSW pack play like they did in Game 2 and shy away from matching QLD's intensity (that will be there in Game 3 like it was in Game 2)... then Farah won't get the chance.

Forget Pearce, forget Maloney, forget Dugan... If The Decider is won by NSW it will be because of the forward pack and the genius of Farah.

But without Hayne - NSW just saw a number of possible avenues to points become a one way street called Robbie Farah Way.

... Okay there is a 4th factor... QLD must not play their best... because if they do - NSW without Hayne can't match them for class.

Team Analysis and Game 3 Predictions below...



ORIGIN MAN OF THE SERIES VOTING
For Game 1 and 2 a select group of Voters polled their Man of the Match for each game and with Game 3 tonight - the following panel is judging Game 3's best players with a 5-3-2-1 Voting system. We have a leader but telling you who that is before Game 3 spoils half the fun... what we can say is - a player from either state can win this and if one player is a standout tonight and gains 5 Votes from each of the 6 panellists - they can win the Man of the Series award.
The Panel: Ben Hoese, Greg Delaney, Nigel Wilbow, Matthew Duncan, Matt Spillane and Warrick Nicolson.
Track Game 3 Origin Player of the Series Voting via #OriginMOTM Votes

GAME 3 TEAM ANALYSIS:
Original NSW Analysis, Original QLD Analysis


NSW GAME 3 TEAM
  1. Josh Dugan
  2. Brett Morris
  3. Michael Jennings
  4. Josh Morris
  5. James McManus
  6. James Maloney
  7. Mitchell Pearce
  8. Aaron Woods
  9. Robbie Farah (c)
  10. James Tamou
  11. Luke Lewis
  12. Ryan Hoffman
  13. Greg Bird
    Bench
  14. Boyd Cordner
  15. Andrew Fifita
  16. Trent Merrin
  17. Anthony Watmough
  18. Josh Reynolds
TEAM SKINNY: Good side... but not as potent as Game 1. Hayne will be missed more than Gallen, who himself is a gigantic hole in the heart of the team... remember who was the only NSW player to charge out at Cooper Cronk in Game 3 last year before the series deciding field goal? Paul Gallen.
Replacing Reynolds with Cordner is a great move but so would have been adding John Sutton instead.

QLD GAME 3 TEAM
  1. Billy Slater
  2. Darius Boyd
  3. Greg Inglis
  4. Justin Hodges
  5. Brent Tate
  6. Johnathan Thurston
  7. Cooper Cronk
  8. Matthew Scott
  9. Cameron Smith (c)
  10. Nate Myles
  11. Chris McQueen
  12. Sam Thaiday
  13. Corey Parker
    Bench
  14. Daly Cherry-Evans
  15. Ben Te'o
  16. Matt Gillett
  17. Josh Papalii
  18. Jacob Lillyman
TEAM SKINNY: Still a prop short... but the rest of the team is A-Grade quality Queensland Beef. If there are weak spots they are Tate in the air and McQueen's suspect defence on the edge. But that's about it. Get the rub of the green on calls and momentum up the middle and QLD's star studded core simply will not be stopped.

www.wdnicolson.com's Game 3 Tip:
Queensland are your firm and overwhelming favourites boys and girls... the Blues can win sure, but I don't expect them to. Maroons by 4 points... 18-14.
Man of the Match: Greg Inglis...
If NSW Win... Robbie Farah.
Man of the Series: NSW could lose and I think Farah is still half a chance, otherwise it'll be the guy who wins Game 3 for QLD...

@NRLTweet Player of the Year:

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Complete Set
Each week's Complete Set of Six (though technically you get 7 points if you include the Quotes) is published on www.wdnicolson.com most Mondays and Tuesdays.
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