Monday, 30 May 2022

NOT The Footy Show Episode 251: State of Origin 1 Teams Reaction

NOT The Footy Show - Episode 251 
 
Published May 30, 2022 

Join Robb Cox and Warrick Nicolson for Episode 251 of NOT The Footy Show as they dissect the NSW Blues and QLD Maroons Teams selected for Game 1 of the 2022 State of Origin Series. 
🔘  Stream the New Podcast or Watch on YouTube

There's 7 rookies set to lineup in Game 1 as Brad Fittler and Billy Slater ring the changes from last year's series - won 2-1 by NSW. 

We talk the massive loss of Tom Trbojevic on NSW's setup and style, and the reasoning behind the axing of Josh Addo-Carr and Jake Trbojevic. 

As for QLD - we think Billy Slater is getting a little too cute with Ben Hunt starting over Harry Grant but it is the selection of Rueben Cotter that gets us talking. 

It's just our second show of 2022, so enjoy them while you get 'em. 

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Monday, 23 May 2022

Predicted QLD Maroons Game 1 Team - 2022 State of Origin Series

BILLY'S QLD MAROONS TEAM...
Published May 23, 2022 
A week or so ago we put together the NSW team we thought Brad Fittler would select for the opening game of the 2022 State of Origin Series, and although injury has already cut holes in that lineup within ten days, now it is time to take a stab at the QLD team Billy Slater will pick.
The new series kicks off on June 8 in Sydney, and both Game 1 squads will be selected next week.
To emphasise - this is the QLD team NOT The Footy Show host Warrick Nicolson thinks Billy Slater will take into camp, not the side he would pick.
PREDICTED QLD ORIGIN SIDE FOR GAME 1
Fullback
Kalyn Ponga 
He will get first crack ahead of Reece Walsh. How he meshes with DCE, Munster and Grant could dictate QLD's chances in this series - if he fires NSW are going to have all sorts of trouble containing this quartet. Walsh will have to wait for an opportunity, whilst Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow's injury means he probably misses out on a spot in the 17 altogether.

Wingers
Corey Oates and Selwyn Cobbo.
Harsh call on Murray Taulagi but the Brisbane wingers have been superb of late and Slater played with Oates so that will get him across the line. This means there's no room for Xavier Coates in the 17, but he may keep Taulagi out of the extended bench as the Storm have a bye in Round 13 whereas the Cowboys will play (albeit on Thursday night). Cobbo has made his case emphatically and although Origin is a massive step up from club footy - Slater is unlikely to leave him out for Coates or Taulagi. Tabuai-Fidow would be another backup option, whereas Kyle Feldt's injury means his chances of a recall have been completely dashed.

Centres
Dane Gagai and Valentine Holmes.
Gagai will be there if fit, and Holmes has made his switch to centre a real winner at club level. Their only threat is Tabuai-Fidow and it's hard to see that happening given Hamiso's lack of minutes in the position this season. Philip Sami would be the fallback if QLD decided against drafting Kurt Capewell into to the centres again, or they could try Cobbo there in a pinch.

Five-Eighth
Cameron Munster.
No question marks here - it's Cam's job to win this series for QLD - make no mistake, the pressure is firmly on his shoulders this series after going missing in 2021. AJ Brimson is playing club footy at five-eighth but his only hope of a run is probably at fullback if a few other players get hurt there. QLD will play Ben Hunt here if Munster got hurt, or perhaps blood Tom Dearden.

Halfback
Daly Cherry-Evans (c).
DCE is not getting any younger - he's 33 believe it or not - but he's QLD's second most important player after Munster in this series. Like Munster found the going much tougher v NSW in 2021 v 2020 and although his club form has been pretty good, he only has Hunt nipping at his heels really for the gig. Again, if QLD go bold then Dearden could get a chance but the only scenario where that happens is if NSW are up 2-0 and DCE is hurt.

Props
Josh Papalii and Patrick Carrigan.
The QLD veteran is back in form at Canberra and will be one prop - and the cornerstone of the pack. Carrigan will likely get the starting gig a prop with Tino Fa'asuamaleaui at lock. Papalii may only be used in two bursts, but Carrigan will play big minutes for Slater. Mo Fotuaika is going ok without setting the world alight for the Titans but should get one of the bench prop spots, but there isn't a standout candidate for the other one. Lindsay Collins is probably the favourite now he's available, whilst Reuben Cotter and Thomas Gilbert are the bolters. If Slater plays it a bit safer then Thomas Flegler looms as a likely last replacement, with incumbent Francis Molo (who it is hard to see being picked this year) and Joe Ofahengaue other options. That said, if QLD decide to pick David Fifita underdone, then Jai Arrow immediately becomes the fourth middle on the bench next to Fotuaika and ahead of the rest. 

Hooker
Harry Grant.
Wasn't at his best in the series opener last year and missed the rest of the series. Will get the job here and the keys to play 80 minutes if he is up to it. His battle with Damien Cook is eagerly anticipated. Reed Mahoney is well and truly good enough for Origin level but he won't get a look in for Game 1. Hunt will be the bench utility - again ahead of Mahoney, but should Grant miss a game through injury/suspension then Mahoney will come in.

Second Rowers
Felise Kaufusi and Kurt Capewell
This looks like the combo even if Fifita is available for selection. Kaufusi is a classic Craig Bellamy foot soldier and Slater won't hesitate to bring that into his squad despite Kaufusi's indifferent Origin form the last two years. That leaves only one spot for Arrow and Capewell to fight over, with the loser taking a spot on the bench - Arrow's middle flexibility may count against him. And that's where the challenge for Slater will come regarding Fifita - would he carry only one genuine middle on the bench if he starts with Arrow, puts Capewell in the reserves with Hunt and then picks Fifita next to Fotuaika? Fifita doesn't deserve to be in the side based on form in 2022 but he is a game changer... right now I think he misses out with rookie backrower Jeremiah Nanai preferred on the bench. To be honest Nanai playing Origin looks like a massive elevation for him based on really good club form, but the Origin hype machine is a powerful thing when you score a few tries (even off kicks). Gut says QLD take a flier on Nanai over an available Fifita. Backup options include Gilbert, Beau Fermor and a young forward I have a massive wrap on in Trent Loireo.

Lock
Tino Fa'asuamaleaui.
The Gold Coast lock will start at lock you'd think, although balance and use wise I feel like he should be at prop and Carrigan at lock. One thing is for sure - the longer he stays on the bench the better it is for NSW. Arrow and Capewell could play here easily also, whilst Cotter and Ofahengaue look like the next best options beyond them. Kobe Hetherington isn't in the conversation yet but don't rule him out later in the series, especially if Cotter doesn't find Origin as easy being a smaller middle as club footy.

Bench
Ben Hunt, Jeremiah Nanai, Jai Arrow, Moeaki Fotuaika. 
(Extras: AJ Brimson, Murray Taulagi, Reuben Cotter and Thomas Flegler/Lindsay Collins)
Hunt is a sure thing, as is Arrow (or Capewell). Fotuaika is the best of the middle options so I expect him to be there. If you pick Nanai you then face the challenge of getting him into the game so I'm not convinced he's here ahead of a Cotter or Collins in the end as the camp experience would be a big thing for him, but again - Origin hype machine. Brimson does offer good flexibility as a camp attendee, and Tabuai-Fidow therefor should be ahead of Taulagi on the same premise but I think Slater rewards Taulagi for his great 2022 so far. Cotter and one of either Flegler or Collins round out the 21 man camp squad with Molo missing out altogether.
Next in line: Tabuai-Fidow, Coates, Mahoney, Loiero (really think he's a smokey for a camp spot), Ofahengaue, Dearden and Gilbert.
So the Game 1 lineup I think Billy Slater will pick is:
  1. Kalyn PONGA
  2. Corey OATES
  3. Valentine HOLMES
  4. Dane GAGAI
  5. Selwyn COBBO
  6. Cameron MUNSTER
  7. Daly CHERRY-EVANS (c)
  8. Josh PAPALII
  9. Harry GRANT
  10. Patrick CARRIGAN
  11. Felise KAUFUSI
  12. Kurt CAPEWELL
  13. Tino FA'ASUAMALEAUI
    Bench
  14. Ben HUNT
  15. Jai ARROW
  16. Moeaki FOTUAIKA
  17. Jeremiah NANAI
    Extras
  18. Reuben COTTER
  19. Murray TAULAGI
  20. AJ BRIMSON
  21. Thomas FLEGLER or Lindsay COLLINS
With no Tom Trbojevic or Latrell Mitchell - are QLD now favourites?


NOT The Footy Show will record a Podcast getting Robb Cox's picks for both sides in the next week or so... maybe. 
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You can subscribe to the NOT The Footy Show Podcast on Apple Podcasts, Spotify and watch each episode on our YouTube Channel.

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Thursday, 12 May 2022

Predicted NSW Blues Game 1 Team - 2022 State of Origin Series

FREDDY'S NSW BLUES TEAM...
Published May 12, 2022 
Ch-ch-ch-changes!
Injuries have made the original NSW team I picked on behalf of Brad Fittler (May 12) a little too tough to actually pick now there's no Tommy Trbojevic especially. 
So as of now (May 23) I think Jack Wighton gets the gig at left centre with a Round 12 showdown between Stephen Crichton and Kotoni Staggs for the right centre spot vacated by Latrell Mitchell. Sounds like Cam Murray will be available for Game 1, so I think it's down to Angus Crichton-Keaon Kolomatangi and Ryan Matterson for the final bench spot. RCG, Tyson Frizell and Tariq Sims on the fringe up front, and Gutherson sneaks into a camp spot with Trbojevic out.
Here is the team I think Fittler picks for Game 1 - as of May 23 2022.
  1. James TEDESCO (c)
  2. Brian TO'O
  3. Jack WIGHTON
  4. Kotoni STAGGS/Stephen CRICHTON
  5. Josh ADDO-CARR
  6. Jarome LUAI
  7. Nathan CLEARY
  8. Daniel SAIFITI
  9. Damien COOK
  10. Junior PAULO
  11. Cameron MURRAY
  12. Liam MARTIN
  13. Isaah YEO
    Bench
  14. Nicho HYNES
  15. Payne HAAS
  16. Jake TRBOJEVIC
  17. Angus CRICHTON
    Extras
  18. Stephen CRICHTON/Kotoni STAGGS
  19. Clint GUTHERSON
  20. Keaon KOLOMATANGI
  21. Ryan MATTERSON
Original Predicted NSW Team Article - May 12 2022:
At approximately 8pm last night, the countdown to the kickoff of the 2022 State of Origin Series hit the four weeks to go mark.
For the first time in what seems like an eternity, New South Wales will play an Origin game in NSW, with Game 1 set for Wednesday June 8 at Stadium Australia.
The Blues haven't played at home since Game 2 2020 and that was with a restricted crowd during the first wave of COVID forcing that series to be played in November. We have to go back to Game 3 2019 for the last time NSW played in front of their home crowd in mass numbers.
That's pretty much 3 years.
On the other hand, since that decider in 2019, Queensland have been handed four of the last six games as home games, with a sojourn to Adelaide in 2020 the only other match not played in QLD.
But enough facts, let’s throw out some predictions.
With New South Wales set to name their Game 1 team later this month, it’s time for NOT The Footy Show host Warrick Nicolson to have his first attempt at picking the side he thinks NSW coach Brad Fittler will take into camp for the June 8 fixture.
PREDICTED NSW ORIGIN SIDE FOR GAME 1
Fullback
James Tedesco (c).
He's the captain, he's still very much in the conversation for best player in the world and Tom Trbojevic carves up at centre. Look Ryan Papenhuyzen is a heck of a player but he's not taking Teddy's spot - and now injury looks set to rule Papy out of a spot on the bench. If the worst happens and both Teddy and Tommy get hurt in the next month, you'd expect Clint Gutherson might get the call.

Wingers
Josh Addo-Carr and Brian To'o.
This will be the pairing, end of story. JAC hasn't been great in 2022 adjusting to a new world of less than stellar ball and a team getting beaten most weeks, but he's going to be on the wing... it's just a matter of if To'o plays on the left or right per Freddy's preferred setup. Last year To'o played left and the Foxx played on the right. Backup options (some according to Freddy) look to be Daniel Tupou, Nick Cotric, Alex Johnston and a converted centre from the options listed below (Crichton, Graham and Lomax).

Centres
Tom Trbojevic and Kotoni Staggs.
Tommy is fit again and will play either left or right, depending on what Freddy does with filling the second centre spot that the injury to Latrell Mitchell opened up. 
Kotoni Staggs is the front-runner as Fittler is an unabashed fan and he is fit right now, but there is a bunch of players that could come into contention if Staggs doesn't set the world on fire the next few weeks. Stephen Crichton has been in the mix the last two years and has quietly been very good for Penrith to open 2022, Campbell Graham was part of the extended squad last year, and Siosifa Talakai made headlines a couple of weeks ago for good reason. Zac Lomax would certainly do a job if called on but it doesn't feel like he's really a contender, and the same goes for Bradman Best and Penrith rookie Izack Tago. So I don't think Freddy goes with Crichton or Graham ahead of Staggs for Game 1... but if Staggs is poor in the opener I can see there being a change (even if Mitchell is not available) with Crichton or Graham coming in, but right now it is Staggs's gig. Edit: Matt Burton may yet be half a chance, especially if Fittler decided to play To'o on the left edge - as those two played next to each other in 2021 at Penrith.
Update Monday May 16: During the Storm-Panthers game Fittler made special mention of how good Crichton is going and that his ability to play centre, winger and fullback made him very appealing at Origin level. Staggs was ok in Brisbane's win over Manly, but he wasn't a standout despite the 38-0 scoreline and Crichton played well in Penrith's win over Melbourne. Advantage Crichton.

Five-Eighth
Jarome Luai.
He's been good in 2022 but certainly not at his best. He's let some arrogance really seep into his game to the extent he's getting a little dirty when defending. Now Jarome you are just too good a footy player to keep doing that without someone landing one on your chin - so cut it out please. Luai teams with Nathan Cleary again at Origin level and that's just gravy for NSW fans. Forgotten man at rep level Luke Keary, Mitchell Moses, Jack Wighton and Cody Walker would be the logical backups.

Halfback
Nathan Cleary.
Great footballer who is going to get better on the Origin stage this year. He missed Game 3 last year through injury and that cost the Blues a chance to clean-sweep the Series so expect him to be on a mission to not only win the 2022 Series but take it out 3-0. He's that driven. Backups include last year's Game 3 'here's your token game' halfback Moses, Keary and Adam Reynolds. For the record had NSW not been up 2-0 last year, I think Reynolds may have got the Game 3 assignment ahead of Moses... but Freddy gave Moses a go. If NSW faced a must-win game without Cleary this series... my gut says you go with Keary or Reynolds but that's just me. 

Props
Junior Paulo and Daniel Saifiti.
They would have been the Game 2 and Game 3 starters last year had Saifiti not missed the decider. They combine to give Fittler what he wants in the middle to open Origin games - power with the ball and great defence. Jake Trbojevic and Payne Haas will be the bench middles in what is a pretty fantastic prop rotation. Dale Finucane was called in for Game 3 last year but he won't force his way in here and Stefano Utoikamanu won't likely have the games on the board to really coming into reckoning after injury. Reagan Campbell-Gillard, Moses Leota and maybe even David Klemmer would be the possible backup options if Fittler went for genuine props on the bench, but he does have a bunch of backrowers who could do a job in the middle to choose from as well (like Jake Trbojevic).

Hooker
Damien Cook.
His matchup with Harry Grant is going to be one of the highlights of the 2022 Series. Api Koroisau may not get another chance with Fittler after his off-field indiscretion in camp last year, so that leaves Blayke Brailey, Reece Robson and maybe even Tom Starling on the verge of a drastic rookie call up if anything happens to Cook. NSW may have to make up with Koroisau out of necessity if so, in what would be a very very Rugby League kind of move...

Second Rowers
Cameron Murray and Liam Martin.
Tariq Sims was there for all 3 Origins last year with Tyson Frizell out injured through the 2021 Series, but it is hard to see him retaining this spot even if Murray isn't fit for Game 1. Liam Martin looks set to take one starting spot regardless of the shoulder injury to Murray, and although Angus Crichton's presence on the bench last year makes him the front runner to replace Murray - the likely omission of Sims as well means there is possibly an open spot for not only Frizell, but young guns like Keaon Kolomatangi and Haumole Olakau'atu. The Blues are spoilt for choice on the edge right now, and yet 12 months ago Fittler found himself with the serious question of 'who can we manufacture next to Murray and Yeo in the backrow?' 
Backups include Ryan Matterson (who is playing as a middle right now for Parramatta), Tevita Pangai Junior (extremely unlikely), and Sims at this stage.

Lock
Isaah Yeo.
Locked and loaded, he's vital at giving Cleary and then Luai, time and space with the ball at Penrith so he's playing 13. Victor Radley has been good and not so good in 2022, so he's not looking like a must pick for a bench spot, let alone being the backup choice behind Yeo at lock. In fact, you'd imagine if fit, Murray would shift here if Yeo missed for any reason, with Radley and Jake Trbojevic next in line after that.
Backups include Frizell (plays his best at lock at Origin I think), Crichton, and Matterson. Due to the depth in the NSW backrow there's just no real shot for Nathan Brown, or even the forgotten man Sims you feel.

Bench
Nicho Hynes, Payne Haas, Jake Trbojevic, Angus Crichton. 
(Extras: Jack Wighton, Keaon Kolomatangi, Victor Radley, Stephen Crichton)
Hynes will get the bench utility gig now Papenhuyzen is injured and likely to miss Game 1 and maybe Game 2 - and why you didn’t see his name in the backups above. He is going to be in the team and it’s going to be right here. Hynes has been everything Cronulla dreamed he would be and can play fullback, three-quarters, halves and hooker - so as I say, he's in Freddy's 17 already. His biggest threat would have been Papenhuyzen or even Jack Wighton - but he has been MIA in too many games this year to genuinely keep his bench spot ahead of Hynes. That’s said I expect Wighton to be 18th man, with Stephen Crichton, Kolomatangi and Radley also making the extended squad. 
Haas and Trbojevic will be the bench prop rotation for sure and certain (injuries aside) and Angus Crichton will get the final spot here if Murray is fit. Should Murray miss, then the gut says Radley or Kolomatangi get called up to the bench with Crichton joining Martin the second row.
So the Game 1 lineup I think Brad Fittler will pick as of May 12 2022 is:
  1. James TEDESCO (c)
  2. Brian TO'O
  3. Kotoni STAGGS
  4. Tom TRBOJEVIC
  5. Josh ADDO-CARR
  6. Jarome LUAI
  7. Nathan CLEARY
  8. Daniel SAIFITI
  9. Damien COOK
  10. Junior PAULO
  11. Cameron MURRAY
  12. Liam MARTIN
  13. Isaah YEO
    Bench
  14. Nicho HYNES
  15. Payne HAAS
  16. Jake TRBOJEVIC
  17. Angus CRICHTON
    Extras
  18. Jack WIGHTON
  19. Victor RADLEY
  20. Keaon KOLOMATANGI
  21. Stephen CRICHTON
That's a very handy footy team, 3-0 NSW anyone?

NOT The Footy Show will record a Podcast getting Robb Cox's picks for the NSW side in the next week or so.
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You can subscribe to the NOT The Footy Show Podcast on Apple Podcasts, Spotify and watch each episode on our YouTube Channel.

We are also on Instagram so please give us a follow @notthefootyshow 
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