|The two horses at the line, Lucas Cranach was 3rd and Americain 4th.|
|Dunaden (top) wins the 2011 Melbourne Cup by a hair over Red Cadeaux|
1st - Dunaden (in a photo finish)
2nd - Red Cadeaux
3rd - Lucas Cranach
4th - Americain
Pre-Race Article - NOW UPDATED with final field on Tuesday November 1.
By W D Nicolson October 28, 2011
Welcome to the 4th Annual 'Bluffer's Guide to the Melbourne Cup'.
And for the fourth straight year - we guarantee at the very least a placing from our cutting edge predictions.
In 2008 - Bauer was picked to run 2nd and did.
In 2009 - Shocking was picked to run 4th and won.
And last year, in 2010 - Maluckyday was picked to run 2nd and did, So You Think was picked to run 1st and was 3rd, Americain was picked to run 5th and won and Harris Tweed was picked to run 3rd and finished 5th)
So we offer you moderately decent selections, or at the very least; an entertaining read.
|Americain won the Cup last year.|
Actually that's a little harsh, given our record (mentioned and linked 2008 2009 2010), but if you're about to spend ridiculous amounts of money on the punt - this is not the guide for you.
Or maybe it is. Because honestly - you're guess is as good as the rest of ours when it comes to Melbourne Cup day.
As we stress here on www.wdnicolson.com every year, think long and hard about what you could spend (or save) the excessive money you punt with on Melbourne Cup day - because the odds are never in your favour.
Anyhoo, to the Bluffer's Guide for another year and each horse has its current Sportingbet prices listed next to the horse's name and then you can read the Scouting Report. Note: the field will be cut down on Saturday October 29 and horse/jockey colours will be added Monday.
Now all horses are listed in barrier order... 1 through 24, actual horse number is next to the name.
(Those horses listed below the field were scouted prior to the final field being culled)
BLUFFER'S GUIDE TO THE 2011 MELBOURNE CUP
last year's 'Bluffer's Guide' on Americain... which when you think of the time it took me to write that reasoning, I just could have come up with a new scouting report. So simply put - superb run last year, the trainer's name is outstanding (Alain de Royer Dupre) and the horse can certainly repeat.
JUKEBOX JURY #6 @ $12
This is a horse that knows how to win, all you need to do is give it a bash on the side down the straight and it'll romp home. Ayyyy...
DUNADEN #13 @ $7.50
Is currently second favourite behind AMERICAIN and although it might be a dyslexic take on a Lord of the Rings reference... wait, have to stop myself there, didn't spell dislexic right the first time. Thank you Google Chrome for the auto spell check, and google for telling me the condition may in fact be dyslexic dysgraphia instead. Who knew? Big chance.
DRUNKEN SAILOR #8 @ $35
You know the tune...
GLASS HARMONIUM #23 @ $35
I'm not 100% sure what a harmonium is exactly but if this horse wins the Cup - the owners will be able to buy a one of the gold variety with the winnings.
MANIGHAR #21 @ $41
Got nothing, but in my defence I am 21 horses in and I was bound to hit a roadblock at some stage. (Turns out the horse ran last year - "Sounds like it was named after a character in the Lion King... some sections of the crowd may be roaring for it to get up." - it didn't.)
UNUSUAL SUSPECT #7 @ $35
This is NOT Keyser Söze... can't you read?
FOX HUNT #19 @ $31
Something tells me this horse might be better suited to the English Countryside...
LUCAS CRANACH #11 @ $10
Fairly short odds for 'The Nudist'. A quick google search will leave no doubt what this renaissance painter like to paint, or more accurately what he didn't paint. Given the horse races practically nude, it should be in its element.
MOURAYAN #14 @ $16 - SCRATCHED
Could be better in the slop... in fact Kramer may have heard about its chances already... http://youtu.be/z0umYspP3_4 (If you haven't got there yet - More Rain = Mour-rayan)
PRECEDENCE #2 @ $35
Looking at the actual form this horse gives you no previous reasons to think it might actually win.
RED CADEAUX #16 @ $31
Means 'Red Gift' apparently... you might like to receive one if you back it at $23.
HAWK ISLAND #18 @ $101
Since when is a horse going to be any good coming from an island populated mostly with hawks?
ILLO #1 @ $15
I like licking Oreos.
LOST IN THE MOMENT #3 @ $35
There are so many good things to say about this horse.... oh, I'm sorry, I got ____ __ ___ ______.
MODUN #5 @ $21
If Rugby League supercoach Jack Gibson was still with us, he'd wrap up a Modun victory with "Played strong, Modun good." PS. A Jack Gibson book is now available by Andrew Webster, I would like a copy.
AT FIRST SIGHT #10 @ $15
Still haven't seen this horse in the flesh so it is hard to tell you whether I'm impressed or not, if you're at the track I guess you'll have a better chance at being impressed with its chances.
MOYENNE CORNICHE #17 @ $26
If the sun is out this horse might struggle... it's a bit pasty. Or if you don't like the Cornish pastie reference... this is lovely with a tossed salad on a hot summer's day. (Hello Quiche lovers, no you don't get left out.)
SAPTAPADI #22 @ $101
It's just fun to say, Sap-ta-padi. Try it. Out loud.
SHAMROCKER #24 @ $51
Sounds like it is the next new utensil sensation from the Sham-Wow guy... http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QwRISkyV_B8 - Quick Question - do you have one?
THE VERMINATOR #4 @ $126
Something tells me the owners of this horse enjoyed the American Pie movie series... which in other 'movie news' is coming back for another instalment. And to think they almost finished that series with some class with the wedding one... I said almost.
TULLAMORE #12 @ $21
This horse has an Irish Festival held in its honour in western New South Wales over the Easter Weekend every year... So it might get lucky and snag a place.
NIWOT #9 @ $13
Never invest with other's tips.
OLDER THAN TIME #20 @ $151
Might take a while to finish... weak, apologies.
2011 PREDICTIONS as of November 1...
(I reserve the right to change once the final field is set, will lock in my selections by Tuesday 3pm)
1st - Americain; the champ repeats.
2nd - Tullamore; Go with the Irish.
3rd - Jukebox Jury; the quality of the name says it all.
4th - Dunaden; unnatural long life = stayer.
5th - Lucas Cranach ('On' The Nudist)
6th - At First Sight (On second thoughts...)
Roughie - Tullamore at $21 or Fox Hunt at $31.