The Postman's 2017 State of Origin Game 1 Predictions

The Postman's Game 1 Tips
2017 State of Origin Series
By W D Nicolson - May 30, 2017
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Well NSW... there's never been a better time.

No JT, no GI, no Matt Scott, and thanks to Kevin Walters - NO BILLY SLATER!

Sure NSW left out Matt Moylan and Robbie Farah from what would have been their most potent attacking team (oh and Tom Trbojevic who would've got the wing spot Brett Morris occupies) but this is a NSW team with enough firepower to match what Darius Boyd, Anthony Milford, Cooper Cronk and Cameron Smith can throw at them...

Actually when you write down that QLD spine on paper - it's actually much better than James Tedesco, James Maloney, Mitchell Pearce and Nathan Peats. 

But NSW have an ace in the backline - no, it's not Josh 'Glass Jaw' Dugan - his name is Jarryd Hayne.

🚨 NOT The Footy Show will record a post-game Origin Podcast on Wednesday night - it won't be long, but it will be some scorching hot fresh reaction.
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Going back to that 2014 drought-breaking series win by NSW - Hayne had the biggest bearing on the series outcome (closely followed by Farah but he's not coming back this time around) - and Hayne will lineup in the centres for the Blues on Wednesday.

Now this is the area that NSW have to target time and time again on Wednesday - QLD's outside men. Sure they need to win the battle up front - and with a bench rotation featuring Klemmer, Trbojevic and Graham this is something NSW might actually be able to maintain if the starters do the job early - but if NSW don't chance their arm and attack QLD's outside backs - they simply won't win.

NSW's biggest problem for most of this era of QLD dominance (beyond QLD's array of champions) was the lack of attacking class in their own lineup... now that doesn't mean they've had the troops to match QLD but they haven't always picked their most classy players over the years and its cost them big time when chances to win games presented themselves.

At the end of the day you only need to be better than your opposition in 2 of 3 games... we're not talking about a full season then semi finals and then a Grand Final here - we're talking about winning two games.

Therefore - I believe NSW need at least 16 points to win Game 1 for mine... and although I love James Maloney's goalkicking - that still means I want 3 tries from the Blues.

QLD will score at least 2 tries - no matter how good NSW think they are defensively - you aren't keeping QLD to under 4 tries in two games within an Origin Series again... (2014 was seriously freakish in Game 1 and 2 when you reflect on it... QLD scored just 3 tries in the 'live' games of that series and NSW scored a grand total of 3... but won both games).

So NSW need 3 tries - that means more than just pressure = points. You've gotta beat QLD - otherwise they'll do that to you. So get the ball wide whenever you can NSW and give your backs a chance to do what they are paid to do. I'm all for beating QLD through the middle like Peter Sterling has been repeating for the last 6 months but you've still gotta risk it to get the biscuit... or something.

In the end - NSW aren't a better team on paper even with QLD missing so many guns (highlighting just how overmatched NSW have been for the years while all of QLD's champions hit and played through their prime) - but they can win this game... so they get my tip for Game 1.

To sum up - NSW win the middle and pass the ball to Jarryd Hayne more than 3 times and they win.

If only it was that simple... to the predictions!

Tips for Origin 1

Each year - The Postman and his mates fill out a State of Origin Predictions 'card' and here's your chance to take a stab or play amongst your mates:

GAME 1 RESULT:
NSW 16
QLD 12

1st TRYSCORER:
Brett Morris, NSW

MAN OF THE MATCH:
Mitchell Pearce, NSW (but Klemmer to be HUGE)

TOTAL PENALTIES:
7 (QLD 3 NSW 4)

Scoring if you want to play at home...

There's my Origin tips - got your own?

Comment below or reply on Twitter

2017 SEASON TIPS: 

58/92 at 63.0% 

Round by Round: 5/8 | 5/8 | 5/8 | 5/8 | 5/8 | 2/8 | 7/8 | 5/8 | 5/8 | 5/8 | 6/8 | 3/4

2016 Tipping: 136/192 at 70.8%
2016 Round by Round: 5/8 | 6/8 | 4/8 | 5/8 | 7/8 | 5/8 | 5/8 | 7/8 | 4/8 | 4/8 | 3/4 | 5/7 | 5/8 | 4/4 | 6/8 | 3/4 | 5/6 | 7/8 | 7/8 | 4/8 | 4/8 | 6/8 | 5/8 | 7/8

2015 Tipping: 115/192 at 59.9%

2014 Tipping: 122/192 at 63.5%

2013 Tipping: 121/192 at 63.0%

2012 Tipping: 115.5/192 at 60.2%

2011 Tipping: 115/192 at 59.9%

2010 Tipping: 125/192 at 65.1%

Get your Footy Fix in 2017!
Subscribe to the NOT The Footy Show Podcast on iTunes so you don't miss any of our new Episodes.

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NRL Round 12 Tips from The Postman | 2017 Season

The Postman's Round 12 NRL Tips
2017 National Rugby League Premiership
By W D Nicolson - May 24, 2017
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BOOM!

6/8 and if we didn't have way too much respect for Kieran Foran's impact on a Warriors team that doesn't want to tackle - we would've gone with the Dragons... but clearly didn't come to our senses quick enough. The Titans turned it up v Manly - who were very good sans Tom Trbojevic - but we got the rest and a 6/8 is a nice upgrade on our stock standard 5/8.

Just the 4 NRL games this weekend with Origin 1 on Wednesday week.

NOT The Footy Show did a Podcast about their reaction to the Game 1 Teams - see below.

🚨 NOT The Footy Show Episode 168 went up Tuesday arvo - so it's still fresh.

🎙 'Origin 1 Teams Reaction Special'

Subscribe to the show on iTunes 
Download the mp3 version 

Tips for Round 12 2017

Rabbitohs over Eels
Can I go a draw? Both teams are average... Eels don't have Corey Norman... Souths badly miss Greg Inglis in attack... come to think of it - Souths it is. Actually it's only Wednesday and the game is Friday - so I might change here... stay tuned.

Warriors over Broncos
Hating myself right now for giving the Warriors yet another chance to disappoint me. So pick Brisbane and ignore me on this tip this week... but surely without Milford, Gillett, Boyd, McCullough, Oates, Thaiday and McGuire (and maybe Roberts - injury) the Warriors can't not win?

Sharks over Bulldogs
Dogs are without Jackson and Brett Morris, Sharks won't have Fifita, Graham and Maloney. Big chance for Canterbury if they fight like they did in the 2nd Half last week but gotta stick with Cronulla at home.

Raiders over Roosters
Big big outs for Easts and only Papalii misses for the home-town Raiders. Pick Canberra.

The Postman's State of Origin Game 1 Tip will be on next week's NOT The Footy Show Podcast.

There's my tips - got your own?

Comment below or reply on Twitter

2017 SEASON TIPS: 

55/88 at 62.5%

Round by Round: 5/8 | 5/8 | 5/8 | 5/8 | 5/8 | 2/8 | 7/8 | 5/8 | 5/8 | 5/8 | 6/8

2016 Tipping: 136/192 at 70.8%
2016 Round by Round: 5/8 | 6/8 | 4/8 | 5/8 | 7/8 | 5/8 | 5/8 | 7/8 | 4/8 | 4/8 | 3/4 | 5/7 | 5/8 | 4/4 | 6/8 | 3/4 | 5/6 | 7/8 | 7/8 | 4/8 | 4/8 | 6/8 | 5/8 | 7/8

2015 Tipping: 115/192 at 59.9%

2014 Tipping: 122/192 at 63.5%

2013 Tipping: 121/192 at 63.0%

2012 Tipping: 115.5/192 at 60.2%

2011 Tipping: 115/192 at 59.9%

2010 Tipping: 125/192 at 65.1%

Get your Footy Fix in 2017!
Subscribe to the NOT The Footy Show Podcast on iTunes so you don't miss any of our new Episodes.

Follow @NRLTweet

NOT The Footy Show Episode 168: Origin 1 Teams Reaction | NRL Podcast

No Billy for Old Kev... 

On this week's Podcast - Robb Cox and Warrick Nicolson simply cannot believe QLD have left out Billy Slater for Game 1.

Stream the New Podcast - Episode 168 below:

Subscribe to the show on iTunes 
Download the mp3 version 

This Podcast is full of reaction to the Origin Teams for May 31 in Brisbane....

• Billy's not busted but he's not in the team... we're still stunned.
• If JT proves his fitness does Milford get a run anyway?
• Evidently Kangaroos jerseys don't guarantee a thing... ask Holmes and Merrin.
• NSW have punted Farah... but is Peats up for the job? Was Wallace before he got hurt?
• NSW's Hall of Fame picks... who would be next?
• We also discuss if there's any merit to the contract renegotiation efforts from Cody Walker and Nathan Ross... there isn't.
• Tease the upcoming '8 Wonders of the Rugby League World' Series here on the show.
• And Coxsmith brings us home with some final thoughts on Mitchell Moses Parramatta debut.

So join us for Episode 168 - it doesn't suck.

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NRL Round 11 Tips from The Postman | 2017 Season

The Postman's Round 11 NRL Tips
2017 National Rugby League Premiership
By W D Nicolson - May 17, 2017
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Hey guess what... we tipped 5/8 again last Round!

No this is not just a copy paste from last week... thanks to the Dogs, Storm and Raiders sucking deluxe - we raise the bat at a 5/8 yet again.

And to prove that your Local Postman is a friend to all - it turns out I'd picked the Cowboys 2 weeks back before the rep round (and JT getting injured) on NRL.com (where I lodge my tips) then evidently failed to change my tip to the Dogs last week before kickoff... even though in the pages below I told you well... 'go the home team even with Reynolds out'... but given I'm all about being fair to all with my mail - I stand by my public Dogs pick in my season winning percentage ratio.

Which funnily enough lands very close to a 5/8 success rate after 10 Rounds... (well 61.3% v 62.5%).

🚨 Another freshly squeezed Podcast for you to consume - Our Origin Teams Special NOT The Footy Show Episode 167 went up Monday.

🎙 'Origin Teams Selection Special'

Subscribe to the show on iTunes 

Download the mp3 version 

Tips for Round 11 2017

Sharks over Cowboys
Inspired effort from North Queensland last week but I'll stick with Cronulla at home.

Warriors over Dragons
Forgive me now tipsters... you know I don't want to tip Saints without a genuine first grade spine... but having to tip the Warriors is at least somewhat digestible when they have Kieran Foran and are at home... right?

Broncos over Tigers
Next... Brisbane please.

Titans over Sea Eagles
Manly don't have Tom Trbojevic for like a month or two now and we both know he's gigantic to their attacking threat level... sure the Titans picked up another 5 injuries last week but as long as Hayne plays - I'm going with the Goldie Coasters.

Raiders over Eels
Corey Norman suits up for this one and you almost have to pick Parra given how poor Canberra have been the past few weeks... but Mitchell Moses is no Corey Norman kids. Go the Raiders.

Panthers over Knights
Penrith have to keep winning games they should win - this qualifies big time despite Newcastle breaking through last week at home v Canberra.

Roosters over Bulldogs
Knowing the Bulldogs they'll find a way to stick with the Roosters for a while here... but if the Chooks play attacking footy - Canterbury won't start doing so themselves til they are 20 points behind.

Storm over Rabbitohs
Melbourne please and thank you.

There's my tips - got your own?

Comment below or reply on Twitter

2017 SEASON TIPS: 

49/80 at 61.3%

Round by Round: 5/8 | 5/8 | 5/8 | 5/8 | 5/8 | 2/8 | 7/8 | 5/8 | 5/8 | 5/8

2016 Tipping: 136/192 at 70.8%
2016 Round by Round: 5/8 | 6/8 | 4/8 | 5/8 | 7/8 | 5/8 | 5/8 | 7/8 | 4/8 | 4/8 | 3/4 | 5/7 | 5/8 | 4/4 | 6/8 | 3/4 | 5/6 | 7/8 | 7/8 | 4/8 | 4/8 | 6/8 | 5/8 | 7/8

2015 Tipping: 115/192 at 59.9%

2014 Tipping: 122/192 at 63.5%

2013 Tipping: 121/192 at 63.0%

2012 Tipping: 115.5/192 at 60.2%

2011 Tipping: 115/192 at 59.9%

2010 Tipping: 125/192 at 65.1%

Get your Footy Fix in 2017!
Subscribe to the NOT The Footy Show Podcast on iTunes so you don't miss any of our new Episodes.

Follow @NRLTweet

NOT The Footy Show Episode 167: Origin Teams Selection Special | NRL Podcast

Let's throw some darts! 

Robb Cox and Warrick Nicolson take an almighty stab at the NSW and QLD Teams they think will be picked for Game 1.

Stream the New Podcast Episode 167 below:

Subscribe to the show on iTunes 
Download the mp3 version 

This is the Origin Podcast Coxsmith's been fantasising about all year...

• We pick both Origin Teams for Game 1 - trying to select the same squads that Laurie Daley and Kevin Walters will choose for NSW and QLD respectively.
• Lament the loss of Tom Trbojevic for NSW and gape in wonder at how good the QLD team will still be sans Inglis, Scott, Parker and maybe Thurston.
• And of course - Coxsmith has his full on bolters who are no chance at all but get mentioned anyway.
• But we do talk a little bit of NRL Round 10 to open the show - but if you don't like Origin - this isn't the show for you.

So join us for Episode 167 - you've spent an hour of your day in worse ways.

Follow NOT The Footy Show on Twitter: @NRLTweet and Facebook: www.facebook.com/nrlpodcast

NRL Round 10 Tips from The Postman | 2017 Season

The Postman's Round 10 NRL Tips
2017 National Rugby League Premiership
By W D Nicolson - May 10, 2017
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Hey guess what... we tipped 5/8 again last Round!

The Postman has delivered a 61.2% success rate for the year to date which isn't horrible but in the 9 Rounds played there's been 7 5/8s and a stand alone 2/8 and 7/8.

So time to get better... or simply not get any worse.

Now Round 10 and 11 are the last two full rounds before we hit the bye rounds - so if you're gonna make any headway on your tipping leaderboards - now is the time.

🚨 Podcast Alert: A fresh NOT The Footy Show Podcast went out on Monday as we dealt with the fallout from the final Rep Round...

🎙 Episode 166: Colombian Expansion Plans
Released 8/5/17:

Subscribe to the show on iTunes
Download the MP3 version 

Tips for Round 10 2017

Bulldogs over Cowboys
Dogs were okay (not great) last week in beating a underwhelming Canberra and the Cowboys were ordinary without JT again... go the home team even with Reynolds out.

Sharks over Dragons
Cronulla should win. The Premiers surely don't lose to a Dragons team with the spine of Nightingale-Mann-McCrone-McInnes do they?

Rabbitohs over Tigers
Flipped a coin here... it ended up heads. But I hadn't allocated a side to each team... literally have no idea who to pick. For some reason Souths ended up getting picked. Happy to change tomorrow let alone before kick-off. Both teams are baaaaad.

Panthers over Warriors
Penrith win... well they need to, so I'm picking them.

Storm over Titans
Bromwich and Proctor serve the first of their club imposed suspensions... and it probably hurts the Gold Coast more at the moment with Jesse Bromwich down on impact big time in 2017. Melbourne have Slater playing great alongside the always great Smith and Cronk so I'll take the Storm. But the Titans with Hayne should not be ignored if you want a sexy outsider pick.

Broncos over Sea Eagles
If this was at Brookie I'd be tempted by Manly (who have played very well the past two weeks - mind you, they have sucked at home in 2017) but Brisbane in Brisbane is a tough reality to tip against... even when the game isn't Thursday or Friday night!

Raiders over Knights
Canberra dropped a point against the Knights in the corresponding game last year and simply cannot afford to do the same (or in fact lose) in Newcastle on Sunday. They don't have Boyd or Papalii but seriously - they should win by 20.

Roosters over Eels
Great matchup - going with the Chooks because they are at home and got beaten in an awful last minute way last time out. Parra are evolving into a good footy team but Chooks for me.

There's my tips - got your own?

Comment below or reply on Twitter

2017 SEASON TIPS: 

44/72 at 61.1%

Round by Round: 5/8 | 5/8 | 5/8 | 5/8 | 5/8 | 2/8 | 7/8 | 5/8 | 5/8

2016 Tipping: 136/192 at 70.8%
2016 Round by Round: 5/8 | 6/8 | 4/8 | 5/8 | 7/8 | 5/8 | 5/8 | 7/8 | 4/8 | 4/8 | 3/4 | 5/7 | 5/8 | 4/4 | 6/8 | 3/4 | 5/6 | 7/8 | 7/8 | 4/8 | 4/8 | 6/8 | 5/8 | 7/8

2015 Tipping: 115/192 at 59.9%

2014 Tipping: 122/192 at 63.5%

2013 Tipping: 121/192 at 63.0%

2012 Tipping: 115.5/192 at 60.2%

2011 Tipping: 115/192 at 59.9%

2010 Tipping: 125/192 at 65.1%

Get your Footy Fix in 2017!
Subscribe to the NOT The Footy Show Podcast on iTunes so you don't miss any of our new Episodes.

Follow @NRLTweet

NOT The Footy Show Episode 166: Colombian Expansion Plans | NRL Podcast

Sadly the final ever 'Rep Round' won't be remembered for the footy... 

Stream the New Podcast Episode 166 below:

Subscribe to the show on iTunes
Download the MP3 version 

Robb Cox and Warrick Nicolson have lots to talk about after Rep Round 2017...

• Unfortunately the rep games are overshadowed by a trio of Drug Busts leaving us to sift through the realities that it exposes...
• We also cover the reaction to Sam Thaiday's 'joke' on The Footy Show... and why it could've been far bigger.
• Try to find a future for top flight Rugby League games to be played in the Country with the demise of City-Country. 
• Plus news on the potentially bright future of the Pacific Tests.
• And finally this week your feedback and iTunes ratings get special prize music to accompany the final segment... 

So join us for Episode 166 - which really should've been last week if not for a dodgy SD card.

Follow NOT The Footy Show on Twitter: @NRLTweet and Facebook: www.facebook.com/nrlpodcast

The Postman's Round 9 NRL Mailbag | 2017 Season

The Postman on Round 9
2017 National Rugby League Premiership
By W D Nicolson - May 1, 2017
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🚨 Sadly the technological hub that is Camden didn't deliver the goods this week - as a full 55 minute NOT The Footy Show Podcast was lost post-recording when the SD Card corrupted... alas the below Postman's Mail will have to suffice in covering the range of topics that NTFS covered in what would have been Episode 166... it means there's no Podcast this week unfortunately.

|-| AIR VUNIVALU ✈✈✈

A post shared by Robb Cox (@robbcox) on Apr 30, 2017 at 4:23am PDT

|-| Quotes of the Round:
• "Matt Moylan take a bow, he has single-handedly along with some good friends got this game back to where we want to see it..."

Corey Parker on 🔥 on the Fox Sports sideline... 

• "Andrew Fifita has shown to all since last year's Four Nations tournament that he is ready to play for the Kangaroos again...
"The game made a stand regarding behaviour at the time and Andrew paid the price for that, missing the Four Nations tour...
"Our game has seen some wonderful redemptive stories throughout its history and I can only think this will be another one."

Mal Meninga explains that Australia suddenly needed a prop...

|-| Try of the Round:
• Happy to put any of Melbourne's first four tries (all to their wingers) on tap for this award this week - Melbourne's game plan to target St George-Illawarra's weak edges was executed to perfection...

📪 Email your thoughts/questions on the footy for The Postman's Mailbag here

|-| 5 Things I Think:

1. Andrew Fifita should still be playing for Tonga...

• The quote from Mal Meninga above was proof that the only reason Fifita is 'rehabilitated' is because he's needed for Australia rather than wanted... Shannon Boyd, Josh Papalii and Aaron Woods all fell over in the last few days and low and behold - Meninga needed a prop. Fifita's form was better at the back end of last year but the game 'needed to take a stand on behaviour' - so Fifita wasn't picked. Now the Kangaroos need a prop to take on the Kiwis and Meninga's happy to look the other way on Fifita's past (not that he was before) and he's a Kangaroo.
• But that's not even the most annoying part - and look Fifita will be happy to be playing for Australia again - but he was also used as the poster boy by the NRL for the Pacific Test triple-header in Campbelltown on Saturday (a video since removed due to Fifita's change in countries). Suddenly given the powers that be need him for Australia - having Fifita run out for Tonga is second fiddle city and he'll miss the game. Now he won't change the gate takings for either match but it's disappointing to see how quickly things can change on a number of fronts to suit the powers that be in Rugby League... that all said should he be playing for Tonga anyway?

2. St George Illawarra have been woken up...

• But has their coach? Now Saints got run over royally by Melbourne a week after getting out-grinded by Easts... so that's two losses in a row after a stunning 6-1 start to the season by the Dragons.
• Though they threw the ball around later in the game I do wonder if their coach took notice of how dangerous they looked relying on second phase play to run the Storm defence ragged? They genuinely looked like a good attacking team that would worry anyone... but that's not how Paul McGregor wants this team to play... he's all about the grind kids... so what will the Dragons post-rep round look like? With no Gareth Widdop for a while yet - will Mary McGregor openly give his team the chance to embrace second phase play and add another layer to a team that I'll admit... has something to offer this competition if they are willing to play variations of footy rather than just the up the guts grind they have played under McGregor for a few years with up and down success...

3. Tom Trbojevic and Jarryd Hayne need to be alongside each other for NSW... 

• Hayne will be there - NSW Coach Laurie Daley has played his hand and it's the right one and now NSW fans everywhere are hoping and praying he makes Trbojevic his left winger. With Josh Dugan and probably Blake Ferguson installed on the right edge - NSW have a chance to be bold and Hayne is one step in that direction and Trbojevic is yet another if he gets a chance. And based on what we've seen to date - he has to get the chance. James Tedesco will be the fullback and if Matt Moylan gets picked it'll be at 6 or on the bench - so the opportunity is there for Daley to blood Trbojevic and make the team better - not just give a rookie a chance... oh and Hayne is my first NSW player picked ladies and gents. He's that important. 

4. The current Top 8 WILL NOT be the end Top 8... 

• Soooooo confident the above won't be your Finals teams... but happily remind me if you need to come September. And though I gave them a wrap above... Saints are no certainties at all.

5. Finally a word on City-Country...

• On the Podcast we didn't linger long on the road that City-Country took to eventually become irrelevant but we did point the finger largely at the media for asking for the game to be scrapped for ages... and getting what they want only to call where the game finds itself before its last performance as a pure 'farce'.
• City-Country was a factor when I grew up but hasn't been for years... from the 'NRL' perspective. But a rep jersey is a rep jersey and all 34 players who will play in Mudgee on Sunday deserve to feel pride in gaining a jersey for the final clash. And to the people of the NSW Country who will go to the game this weekend and have been lucky enough to be part of the host town/region over the years - they know (as I do having been to a few) that the pride of having first grade footy being played at their home ground is just wonderful.
• So congrats to the wider NRL media for simply enabling the coaches/teams to take the stance of not wanting their players involved and now it'll be gone come Sunday arvo about 6pm... 

|-| The Postman's 2017 Tipping Watch:

Round 9 Tips: 5 from 8
Holding steady after that horrible 2/8 in Round 6...

Season Tips: 44 from 72 at 61.1%

There's my thoughts - got your own?

Comment below or reply on Twitter

NEW Episodes in 2017!
Subscribe to the NOT The Footy Show Podcast on iTunes so you don't miss any.

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