Wednesday 3 July 2013

#NRL 2013: Round 17 Tips Late Mail Predictions Preview #NRLLateMail #NRLDT #Supercoach

ROUND 17 TIPS and LATE MAIL
Plus The Postman's NRL Dream Team/NRL Super Coach Picks

 2013 NRL Premiership

By W D Nicolson - July 3, 2013


EXTRA LATEST OF LATE MAIL ADDED THROUGHOUT ROUND
ALL EXPERT PICKS AND SPECIAL FRIED RICE ADDED AS RECEIVED
THE POSTMAN'S MAIL IS NOW AVAILABLE: James Graham or Sam Burgess?
Here's a tip... when you see key players pull out on gameday - CHANGE YOUR TIP.

For some reason on Sunday and Monday Night - I saw Michael Gordon and Beau Ryan for the Sharks pull out... and stuck with the Sharks. And then I saw Kieran Foran pull out for Manly... and stuck with Manly.

Quite simply... I am an idiot.

Now while I don't like the fact you can change your tips on tipping websites up until the minute before the game starts (I'm a traditionalist of pick and stick Fridays) - I am foolish for not swapping both games and taking advantage of the 21st century.

Thus a possible 6/7 turned into a paltry 4/7 with the Storm losing to the Tigers the only real upset.

No tipping prize for me this year... not that I was seriously in contention anywhere but amongst the 'Awesome Foursome' Panel on this site - but still... I had such high hopes.

To the tips!

For our analysis of Tuesday team selections for Round 17 - click here.

As far as Late Mail goes the rolling lockout for all you NRL Dream Team and NRL Super Coach nerds should have allowed you to make any last minute changes quite easily, but once again our Latest of Late Mail should help in any selections you make before the round begins.


The Postman will have a select few NRL Dream Team and NRL Super Coach picks this Friday... Do you take James Graham or Sam Burgess?

@NRLTweet Player of the Year

 Voting Allocation for Round 17 of the NRL is below.
NRL TIPPING PREVIEW + LATE MAIL
ROUND 17, 2013
Wednesday Odds Courtesy of Sportingbet | NRL LADDER
Friday 7:45pm at AAMI Park
STORM $1.30 v $3.65 BRONCOS
FOOTYTAB: BRI +8.5
Tuesday Teams Analysed on NRL Injured List
@NRLTweet Player of the Year Award Voters:
| Ben Hoese @gunnermcdagget Warrick Nicolson @NRLTweet  |
Track live round votes via #NRLTweetPOTY
@NRLTweet's PREDICTION:
Melbourne have LOST two in a row... that anomaly ends with the Broncos in town. I didn't mind the Brisbane performance in NZ but Scott Prince is NOT the answer Anthony Griffin... he and Peter Wallace are too similar (that is they rely on the last tackle kick too often) and won't get you into September. Change things up - put Hoffman or Hodges at fullback, Norman to five-eighth and watch things happen. That forward pack puts in every week but the fulcrums of their attack are impotent. The Storm reunite the Big 3 and with it their ability to look like scoring points... So Melbourne by 14 points.
 LATEST OF LATE MAIL:
STORM: Who comes in for Ryles? Harris is the only safe person on the bench. Meaning Bellamy could go with any number of combos on the bench from what he has named. Cameron Smith is a certainty.
LATE UPDATE? Are 1-17 people. McLean, Harris, Vave and Griffin are your bench.
The Postman's DT/SC TIP: You might be lucky by Friday...
BRONCOS: Lama Tasi has signed with the Broncos but was named in QLD Cup - check his NRL status on Friday arvo. Dunamis Lui might make way for Jarrod Wallace anyway.
LATE UPDATE? Sounds like Corey Oates will make his debut on the bench... Lui and Jarrod Wallace miss out.
The Postman's DT/SC TIP: You might be lucky by Friday...
If you have a DT/SC question grab The Postman on Twitter @NRLTweet and I'll answer there.
Friday 7:45pm at Sharks Stadium (Soon to be 'The Tip')
SHARKS $1.53 v $2.55 TIGERS
FOOTYTAB: WTG +6.5
Tuesday Teams Analysed on NRL Injured List
@NRLTweet Player of the Year Award Voters:
| Justin Davies @dragonpunk12 Nigel Wilbow @parramatters |
Track live round votes via #NRLTweetPOTY
@NRLTweet's PREDICTION:
This game wasn't appealing the last time it got Friday Night billing... and still isn't. The Tigers are playing the better footy at the moment - that is Robbie Farah is playing and Benji Marshall is fit, while the Sharks are missing Michael Gordon terribly from their ability to counter-attack. Todd Carney and Luke Lewis are their only avenue to points right now... so memo Mick Potter: maybe focus on shutting them down? Problem with the Tigers is I'm not sure if they are a good enough team to match the Sharks in a middle of the field battle that Cronulla will try and make the game become. Home ground advantage is the difference maker - even though Farah is in great form - so Sharks - don't let me down. Cronulla by 4 points. STOP THE PRESS! Tigers have advantage now Ryan and Gordon are out. Going Tigers by 4 points on the back of Farah/Marshall/Woods.
 LATEST OF LATE MAIL:
SHARKS: Stewart Mills looks set to get a call up with Luke Lewis going back into the pack and Anthony Tupou or Chris Heighington moving to the bench. Michael Gordon remains in doubt with a calf injury (as does Beau Ryan with a knee problem), with Matthew Wright or Nathan Stapleton on standby given Nathan Gardner has a hamstring strain.
LATE UPDATE? Gordon and Ryan OUT, Stapleton and Mills IN. Gibbs starts at prop, Bukuya in 2nd row. Tupou and Fifita to bench. Peachey in for Ross.
The Postman's DT/SC TIP: You might be lucky by Friday...
TIGERS: Braith Anasta might be a late inclusion but the other troops who are hurt have had their return dates pushed back to Round 19. They are probably 1-17 come Friday.
LATE UPDATE? Anasta on the bench, Spence out.
The Postman's DT/SC TIP: You might be lucky by Friday...
If you have a DT/SC question grab The Postman on Twitter @NRLTweet and I'll answer there.
Saturday 5:30pm at WIN Jubilee Oval
DRAGONS $4.50 v $1.22 ROOSTERS
FOOTYTAB: STI +7.5
Tuesday Teams Analysed on NRL Injured List
@NRLTweet Player of the Year Award Voters:
| Matt Trodden @trods2906 Maria Tsialis @mtsialis |
Track live round votes via #NRLTweetPOTY
@NRLTweet's PREDICTION:
ROOSTERS, ROOSTERS, ROOSTERS... I've tipped against the boys from Bondi for two weeks in a row and got burnt by their fantastic defence. Add James Maloney (possibly) to the attacking mix and they could beat the rudderless and strike-less Dragons by 40 points. Roosters by 20 points.
 LATEST OF LATE MAIL:
DRAGONS: Is Matt Cooper back? Well if you read his latest interview - he's worried about not playing again this season... then a paragraph later says he is almost ready to play. Figure that out and figure that Charly Runciman holds his spot in the centres for this week at least. Adam Quinlan is named at fullback but will Steve Price go back to Brett Morris in the #1 jersey? Bronson Harrison isn't expected back until after the bye.
LATE UPDATE? Cameron King is out with a shoulder injury, so Craig Garvey may make his NRL debut. Word also through that Tyson Frizell might miss as well. Frizell/King out, Garvey/Matthews in.
The Postman's DT/SC TIP: You might be lucky by Friday...
ROOSTERS: Maloney is the big question mark - and both Roger Tuivasa-Sheck and Daniel Mortimer were concussed against Manly. This game is a relatively short turnaround (Mon-Sat) so if one of those two aren't right - Trent Robinson won't risk them. Michael Oldfield will not be called upon however after tearing his hamstring the day after Tautau Moga did his ACL again. Downside for the Roosters is if they've hit their 2nd tier cap floor - will they have to move SKD to the wing and play Aubusson at centre as cover?
LATE UPDATE? Looks like the Mortimer and Maloney are set to play, but there is a question mark on RTS still. RTS out, SKD to wing, Liu joins bench.
The Postman's DT/SC TIP: You might be lucky by Friday...
If you have a DT/SC question grab The Postman on Twitter @NRLTweet and I'll answer there.
Saturday 7:00pm at TIO Stadium (Darwin Local Time - 7:30pm Eastern)
TITANS $1.77 v $2.10 PANTHERS
FOOTYTAB: PEN +4.5
Tuesday Teams Analysed on NRL Injured List
@NRLTweet Player of the Year Award Voters:
| Jake Hauritz @horry37 Adrian McMurray @adrmcm |
Track live round votes via #NRLTweetPOTY
@NRLTweet's PREDICTION:
Great to see another game in Darwin - this time the matchup is a FANTASTIC example of the home team figuring out that actual home ground would not be well attended (both teams can change this fact by winning a bit more often in the next year or two) and moving it to a place that will appreciate having a game again. Roosters-Cowboys got a negative reaction from Sydney fans... well because they got smashed, whereas Penrith and Gold Coast fans who take advantage of a mid-season tropical holiday would be cheering. The game itself - flip a coin. Penrith are good when allowed to be, the Gold Coast just got smashed by 30 points on the road... Titans get Nate Myles back but have no outside backs... the Panthers are moderately settled as a lineup... I want to pick a draw, but based on Sezer-Kelly having more of the ball this week - I'll tip the Titans by 2 points.
 LATEST OF LATE MAIL:
TITANS: Myles will return after getting a week off, while I'd check who flew out to Darwin before ruling William Zillman out. Is there a reshuffle on game day or does John Cartwright start two rookies in the backline in Hughes and Hunt? Anthony Don's presence on the bench suggests that maybe only one rookie plays and the other turns out in NYC. Greg Bird and Ashley Harrison had leg problems against the Knights but will play.
LATE UPDATE? Ridge comes in for James.
The Postman's DT/SC TIP: You might be lucky by Friday...
PANTHERS: Again check who flies out to Darwin - hard to believe the Panthers aren't taking 19 odd players away. At the moment however - take the 17 named as the ones that will play, unless Adam Docker is heading north as well.
LATE UPDATE? Docker is in Darwin so assume he plays. Docker plays, Brown is out with a hamstring strain.
The Postman's DT/SC TIP: You might be lucky by Friday...
If you have a DT/SC question grab The Postman on Twitter @NRLTweet and I'll answer there.
Sunday 2:00pm at Canberra Stadium
RAIDERS $1.58 v $2.45 COWBOYS
FOOTYTAB: NQL +5.5
Tuesday Teams Analysed on NRL Injured List
@NRLTweet Player of the Year Award Voters:
| Matt Vickers @mercurialmattyv Greg Delaney @gregdelaney84 |
Track live round votes via #NRLTweetPOTY
@NRLTweet's PREDICTION:
Sorry Cowboys... I went back on my word and tipped the Sharks to beat you in Townsville (what was I on sticking with the Sharks when Gordon/Ryan pulled out???) and now I've gotta tip the Raiders because at the moment they just don't lose at home. They look positively useless on the road with David Furner's 'repeat sets is the only way we can win on the road' game plan simply not working - but at home they seem to play some actual attacking footy and teams can't deal with it. If I had any confidence that the Cowboys' recent defensive displays were the norm - I'd probably go with North Queensland. But the Sharks and Dragons can't attack with the best of them - so I refuse to put too much stock in those games. Then again - Canberra do suck at the moment. Raiders by 6 points.
 LATEST OF LATE MAIL:
RAIDERS: Wighton (groin) is unlikely, and given this is a home game - Bill Tupou may be preferred to Dimitri Pelo. The other option is Shaun Berrigan at centre and Jarrod Croker on the wing. Terry Campese is playing with soreness in his knees which isn't good news but will play. Jarrad Kennedy, Sam Mataora and Jake Foster are fighting it out for two bench spots.
LATE UPDATE? Wighton is as expected - OUT. Tupou or Pelo could get the call... or Milford to fullback and Robinson to the wing. Berrigan on bench, Wighton out. Milford to split time at FB with Robinson.
The Postman's DT/SC TIP: You might be lucky by Friday...
COWBOYS: Ricky Thorby or Jason Taumalolo - it isn't that hard a choice surely Neil Henry? Check if Matt Bowen makes the trip south as well...
LATE UPDATE? Taumalolo in, Thorby out. Hall and Cooper swap.
The Postman's DT/SC TIP: You might be lucky by Friday...
If you have a DT/SC question grab The Postman on Twitter @NRLTweet and I'll answer there.
Sunday 3:00pm at Mackay Stadium
BULLDOGS $1.53 v $2.57 KNIGHTS
FOOTYTAB: NEW +6.5
Tuesday Teams Analysed on NRL Injured List
@NRLTweet Player of the Year Award Voters:
| Matt Spillane @devonhead Adrian McMurray @adrmcm |
Track live round votes via #NRLTweetPOTY
@NRLTweet's PREDICTION:
Great to see a game back in Mackay after the positive vibes that emanated from the Bulldogs-Storm clash this time last year. The Dogs were woeful last start against the Roosters - with only a moment of Ben Barba brilliance worrying Easts... yes Josh Morris and Josh Reynolds are back and they will perk up the offence - but they are lucky they are playing the yo-yo Knights. Will Newcastle play like the team that targeted a weakness in the Titans and exploited it? Or go back to basics and play into Canterbury's hands... make no mistake - Newcastle's best chance here is to take the game to the Dogs. If they try to play the arm-wrestle - the Dogs win. So take Canterbury by 6 points.
 LATEST OF LATE MAIL:
BULLDOGS: James Graham is apparently fine after Dylan Napa tried to decapitate him with a shoulder (Napa didn't get get charged remember...) and Martin Taupau's best chance at a start comes at Dene Halatau's expense.
LATE UPDATE? Eastwood and Kasiano OUT, Taupau and Browne come in. Williams to bench, Finucane and Jackson start.
The Postman's DT/SC TIP: You might be lucky by Friday...
KNIGHTS: The Knights might actually be 1-17 again - with Korbin Sims pushing Zane Tetevano for the final bench spot. Neville Costigan was good against the Titans - so he should stick.
LATE UPDATE? Scott out for personal reasons (wife is having a baby), so Houston starts and Sims joins bench.
The Postman's DT/SC TIP: You might be lucky by Friday...
If you have a DT/SC question grab The Postman on Twitter @NRLTweet and I'll answer there.
Sunday 4:30pm at NIB Stadium (Perth local time - 6:30pm kickoff Eastern)
RABBITOHS $1.30 v $3.65 WARRIORS
FOOTYTAB: WAR +10.5
Tuesday Teams Analysed on NRL Injured List
@NRLTweet Player of the Year Award Voters:
| Matt Trodden @trods2906 Ben Hoese @gunnermcdagget |
Track live round votes via #NRLTweetPOTY
@NRLTweet's PREDICTION:
South Sydney are an impressive side... and if you've been living under a rock for the last month or so - so are apparently the Warriors. Winners of 5 straight - the Warriors are looking to add the Rabbitohs to their recent list of vanquished foes: Broncos x 2, Manly, Newcastle and most impressively - the Roosters at the SFS. But then again - Souths are the best team in the competition at the moment, so there's that. Game is in Perth (great stuff!) but the Bunnies are my pick: Souths by 10 points.
 LATEST OF LATE MAIL:
RABBITOHS: McQueen will play, while Everingham must be in some doubt with a rib problem. Justin Hunt would replace him ahead of Dylan Farrell. Check who flies out to Perth - because George Burgess may have to earn his spot in 1st grade back and that means he will be playing NSW Cup in Sydney. Adam Reynolds is fine after a bruised foot last week.
LATE UPDATE? 1-17, George preferred to Tom.
The Postman's DT/SC TIP: You might be lucky by Friday...
WARRIORS: Manu Vatuvei must be in doubt after limping badly from the field. If he's out there's a few options: Ngani Laumape in a straight swap or brining Jerome Ropati into the centres and pushing Konrad Hurrell to the wing where he looked more involved against the Broncos. Russell Packer should travel but is no guarantee.
LATE UPDATE? Packer is out, with Charlie Gubb expected to get a run in his place ahead of Matagi. Vatuvei/Packer out, Laumape/Gubb in.
The Postman's DT/SC TIP: You might be lucky by Friday...
If you have a DT/SC question grab The Postman on Twitter @NRLTweet and I'll answer there.
Monday 7:00pm at Brookvale Oval
SEA EAGLES $1.14 v $6.00 EELS
FOOTYTAB: PAR +15.5
Tuesday Teams Analysed on NRL Injured List
@NRLTweet Player of the Year Award Voters:
| Matthew Duncan @mrpeninsula Warrick Nicolson @NRLTweet |
Track live round votes via #NRLTweetPOTY
@NRLTweet's PREDICTION:
Manly have burned me majorly in the last month... in fact they have just one win (and a draw) since Round 9!!! I keep putting my faith in their veterans but their tactics against the Roosters were ordinary - even with Kieran Foran being a late withdrawal. They had Shaun Kenny-Dowall on toast twice only to see Roger Tuivasa-Sheck bail him out - then failed to target SKD again the rest of the match. Ridiculous. That being said - they play Parramatta this week so you have to pick Manly at Brookie. Jarryd Hayne back gives the Eels a chance to keep it close - as does Manly's lack of confidence lately. But it is still Manly by 13 points.
 LATEST OF LATE MAIL:
SEA EAGLES: David Williams is set to play despite news of his Kings Cross incident. James Hasson copped a head knock and might be in some doubt, while Kieran Foran will be recovered from his illness by Monday.
LATE UPDATE? 1-17.
The Postman's DT/SC TIP: You might be lucky by Friday...
EELS: Jarryd Hayne needs to play to ensure he gets his NSW spot back. But he also needs to be careful because pushing it too early before a Monday game might cruel his NSW chances entirely. Or he plays and kills it. Daniel Harrison had a head knock against Souths but seems to have recovered. Ben Roberts is still Ben Roberts.
LATE UPDATE? Hayne is OUT. Mullaney to fullback.
The Postman's DT/SC TIP: You might be lucky by Friday...
If you have a DT/SC question grab The Postman on Twitter @NRLTweet and I'll answer there.
What are your tips for Round 17? 
Are you taking any advice from our Awesome Foursome panel this year?
Let us know by commenting below or replying on Twitter.
@NRLTWEET's 2013 TIPPING RECORD 
TIPPING TOTAL AFTER 16 ROUNDS - 73/118 @ 61.9%
FOOTYTAB TOTAL AFTER 16 ROUNDS - 62/118 @ 52.5%
SPECIAL FRIED RICE involves each tipster taking a 'certainty' in a set order, with the tipster with the highest score at the end of the year literally winning a mountain of Special Fried Rice. The SFR Order rotates every week and is a fun way to put your rice where your mouth is.
ROUND 17 SELECTIONS | The Awesome Foursome
@NRLTweet
Warrick D. Nicolson, The NRL Tweet
TIPPING:
Storm TIGERS Roosters Titans Raiders Bulldogs Rabbitohs Sea Eagles
LW: 4/7 | SEASON: 73/118
FOOTYTAB:
MEL -8.5 WTG +6.5 SYD -7.5 PEN +4.5
CAN -5.5 NEW +6.5 WAR +10.5 PAR +15.5
LW: 3/7 | SEASON: 62/118
Special Fried Rice: RABBITOHS over Warriors (Has 4th Pick)
Season SFR: 11.5/16
CAN4 CBY3 SOU2 MEL1 CRO4 MAN3 SYD2 SYD1 SOU4 MEL3 NQL2 SOU1 MEL4 CRO3 CBY2 SOU1 SOU4
TIPPING:
Broncos Sharks Roosters Panthers Cowboys Knights Warriors Sea Eagles
LW: 3/7 | SEASON: 61/118
FOOTYTAB:
BRI +8.5 WTG +6.5 SYD -7.5 PEN +4.5
NQL +5.5 NEW +6.5 WAR +10.5 PAR +15.5
LW: 4/7 | SEASON: 55/118
Special Fried Rice: ROOSTERS over Dragons (Has 2nd Pick)
Season SFR: 10/16
SOU2 SOU1 MAN4 PAR3 NQL2 MEL1 BRI4 WAR3 STI2 BRI1 NEW4 NEW3 CBY2 SOU1 MEL4 NEW3 SYD2
@Horry37
Jake Hauritz, Channel 9 Darwin
TIPPING:
Storm Sharks Roosters Titans Raiders Bulldogs Rabbitohs Eels
LW: 5/7 | SEASON: 79/118
FOOTYTAB:
MEL -8.5 CRO -6.5 SYD -7.5 GLD -4.5
CAN -5.5 CBY -6.5 SOU -10.5 PAR +15.5
LW: 2/7 | SEASON: 54/118
Special Fried Rice: STORM over Broncos (Has 1st Pick)
Season SFR: 10/16
MEL1 BRI4 MEL3 CRO2 MEL1 CAN4 NQL3 MEL2 MEL1 CAN4 MAN3 CBY2 SYD1 BRI4 CAN3 MEL2 MEL1
@MrDC
DC Chapman, League Lover
TIPPING:
Storm Sharks Roosters Panthers Cowboys Bulldogs Rabbitohs Sea Eagles
LW: 4/7 | SEASON: 67/118
FOOTYTAB:
MEL -8.5 CRO -6.5 SYD -7.5 PEN +4.5
NQL +5.5 CBY -6.5 SOU _10.5 MAN -15.5
LW: 3/7 | SEASON: 45/118
Special Fried Rice: SEA EAGLES over Eels (Has 3rd Pick)
Season SFR: 11/16
NEW3 MAN2 CRO1 NEW4 SOU3 NEW2 MEL1 NEW4 BRI3 SOU2 SOU1 GLD4 PEN3 MEL2 SOU1 STI4 MAN3
The NRL Injury List is updated regularly during each week of the season, making it an invaluable Fantasy and Tipping Tool alongside our Weekly NRL Previews once again.

Remember if you want game-specific Late Mail every week, then check out our Round Previews Every Wednesday and they are updated with all the very latest Late Mail on Friday.
Who will take Ben Barba's mantle as champion in the 2013 @NRLTweet Player of the Year Awards?

 The Prestigious Award is underway for a 4th season in 2013.
@NRLTweet Player of the Year Award Voters:
Warrick Nicolson @NRLTweet | Nigel Wilbow @parramatters
Justin Davies @dragonpunk12 | Greg Delaney @gregdelaney84
Matt Spillane @devonhead | Matt Trodden @trods2906
Matt Vickers @mercurialmattyv | Ben Hoese @gunnermcdagget
Adrian McMurray @adrmcm | Matthew Duncan @mrpeninsula
Maria Tsialis @mtsialis | Ben Jones @benwah87

Review all of the voting results from 2012 right here

Remember you can track all the votes each week after each match in 2013 via the Twitter hashtag #nrltweetpoty
By Warrick D. Nicolson