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Wednesday, 26 August 2020

NRL Round 16 Tips from The Postman | 2020 Season

The Postman's Tips for Round 162020.
Published August 26, 2020


THE BULLDOGS! THOSE STINKING BULLDOGS!
Perfection beckoned in Round 15 but alas Canterbury suck even more than the Warriors evidently... so I've had to settle for 7/8.
The strong tipping continues but really how are you not getting at least 50% right by yourself this season? The quality of the good teams is pretty good but the rest of the teams are woeful.
But hey - the game's never been better remember... I'm actually not anti having a big difference between the good and bad teams - if your team is good you deserve not to be dragged down to the level of the teams who play not to lose... but 2020 has cost five coaches their jobs and that's because their teams were horrendous post-COVID.
Also... just hit 70% success rate for 2020 through 15 Rounds - happy days!
Now to stay there.
Round 15 Results:
Eels 14 Storm 0 Correct
Panthers 38 Sharks 12 
Correct
Dragons 28 Broncos 24 - 
Correct
Raiders 36 Titans 16 Correct
Roosters 38 Tigers 16
 Correct
Rabbitohs 56 Sea Eagles 16 Correct
Warriors 20 Bulldogs 14 
Incorrect
Knights 12 Cowboys 0
 Correct
2020 TIPPING STATS: 84/120 at 70.0%

NOT The Footy Show's NRL Podcast returned on Monday. 
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Round 16 Tips:
Thursday
Eels over Rabbitohs
I actually expect Souths to give a good account of themselves given their form of late (albeit against poor sides) but Parramatta get the tip because they are a better team and are pretty much full strength.

Friday
Dragons over Titans
The Dragons can harbour a little bit more insincere Top 8 hope if they beat the Gold Coast... I mean they then need the Cowboys to beat the Sharks - but for 24 hours at least the Dragons can cling to that hope if they are good enough to knock off the average Titans.

Roosters over Broncos
No more Supercoach Seibold but the troops are gradually trickling back for the Chooks and although it won't be 59-0 again - 40-0 is on the cards with James Tedesco poised for a big big big one. Easts by plenty - their forwards will rip Brisbane's to shreds on Friday.

Saturday
Knights over Warriors
On form the Warriors are in this up to their eyeballs. Newcastle were bad last week but won, and the Warriors were decent without being outstanding to run down Canterbury. Pick Newcastle based on the Top 8 factor but hey - go the Warriors if you are hunting an upset - it's not out of the question.

Sharks over Cowboys
Cronulla don't lose this... right? 

Panthers over Tigers
Penrith. But may be a high scoring game me thinks.

Sunday
Storm over Sea Eagles
Smith, Munster, Hughes and JBrom back for Melbourne - and still no Tommy Trbojevic for Manly. Des Hasler's record against Craig Bellamy is gonna cop a loss this week - with interest. 

Raiders over Bulldogs
Canberra tossed aside a nufty last week in the Gold Coast - they need to do the same to the Dogs this Sunday if they want to stay in the running for a Top 4 spot and that second chance.

2020 Tipping Record: 84/120 @ 70.0%
Round 01: 4/8
Round 02: 4/8
Round 03: 7/8
Round 04: 5/8
Round 05: 5/8
Round 06: 6/8
Round 07: 5/8
Round 08: 6/8
Round 09: 5/8
Round 10: 5/8
Round 11: 6/8
Round 12: 6/8
Round 13: 7/8
Round 14: 6/8
Round 15: 7/8
Round 16: tbd
===

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We are back in business in 2020
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Monday, 24 August 2020

NOT The Footy Show Episode 221: Supercoach Kevvie and Carry On Cameron? NRL Round 15 Review Podcast

Supercoach Kevvie and Carry On Cameron?
NRL Round 15 Review Podcast.
Released August 24, 2020


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We are finally back on deck so join Matthew Duncan and Warrick Nicolson for Episode 221 of our NRL Podcast following Round 15 of the NRL. 

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We discuss the merits of Kevin Walters walking into the shoes of Supercoach Seibold at the Brisbane Broncos should the latter's exit be confirmed in the coming days and we look at the impact Cameron Smith's decision will have on the Melbourne Storm should he choose to retire or play on in 2021.

Plus we look at the disparity between punishments for Crusher and High Tackles in our Round 15 NRL Review.

All this and a little bit more on Episode 221 of NOT The Footy Show.

Enjoy.

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Wednesday, 19 August 2020

NRL Round 15 Tips from The Postman | 2020 Season

The Postman's Tips for Round 152020.
Published August 19, 2020


Round 14 delivered 6 from 8 correct tips but both misses were upsets.
Melbourne were superb without Cam Smith and Cam Munster as they rolled right over the Chooks - who are really starting to look human the past month or so - and then the Dragons sent Mary McGregor out with a tough win against Parramatta - who really blew this game with another sign that they aren't the team some think they are yet.
With 6 rounds left The Postman's aim is to end up above 65% success rate for the season but it would be fantastic to get to 70%.
Round 14 Results:
Storm 24 Roosters 6 Incorrect
Panthers 18 Warriors 12 
Correct
Dragons 14 Eels 12 - 
Incorrect
Sharks 30 Titans 18 Correct
Rabbitohs 31 Cowboys 30
 Correct
Raiders 36 Broncos 8
 Correct
Knights 26 Sea Eagles 24 
Correct
Tigers 29 Bulldogs 28
 Correct
2020 TIPPING STATS: 77/112 at 68.8%

NOT The Footy Show's NRL Podcast is off again this week sorry folks.
When we return you can Watch NOT The Footy Show on Youtube or listen to the Podcast via iTunes and Spotify.
Round 15 Tips:
Thursday
Eels over Storm
Surely with Jesse Bromwich, Sulasi Vunivalu and Dale Finucane joining the injured list this week - on top of no Cam Smith and Cam Munster already being there - the Storm falter for the first time in two months here... then again it is Parra. Leaning Eels but check back Thursday night because Melbourne haven't given you a reason to doubt them whereas Parra have been generous in that department.

Friday
Panthers over Sharks
If Parra knock off Melbourne then a win here would see Penrith leap to a 3 point lead in the race for the Minor Premiership with 5 rounds left. Cronulla have played some good footy of late but the Panthers have been really good for a long time and although they got pushed by the Warriors last week - you have to pick Penrith. Also a loss for the Sharks doesn't really dampen their Top 8 hopes so it's not must-win territory for them.

Dragons over Broncos
St George Illawarra can reignite a slim slim slim Top 8 hope if they beat the Broncos by plenty on Friday night. With 5 wins they are currently 6 points out of 8th but if they win and improve their current -28 differential significantly they would draw within 4 points of Souths and the Sharks (both in the +50 range). Sure they are next to no chance of bridging the gap in 6 weeks but Brisbane suck and the Saints claim not to. So prove it Dragons.

Saturday
Raiders over Titans
On the Gold Coast and the Titans have been ok in recent weeks (though they lose Kevin Proctor due to suspension) but Canberra turned on the attacking flair last week and should have too much firepower for the Titans on Saturday. Well they should...

Roosters over Tigers
Some key ins for the Chooks with JWH, BMoz and Flanagan back in... but Keary goes out and he's arguably more influential to the Roosters' style than Tedesco is. If the Tigers can bring Twal and Mikaele onto their bench for Taylor and Seyfarth then they will have the edge on what the Roosters throw out there after their starters... but who am I kidding - I ain't picking the Tigers against the Chooks. 

Rabbitohs over Sea Eagles
Two potential big ins for Manly with Taupau and AFB back. Garrick is certainly not the answer at fullback but Des doesn't appear to want to try out anything different there so he'll keep getting what he's got so far. Liam Knight out for the Bunnies and Bayley Sironen didn't look healthy at the end of last week's game but I still lean towards Souths. DCE is good enough to carry Manly on his back but if Souths win they pretty much end Manly as a direct challenger to their Top 8 spot.

Sunday
Bulldogs over Warriors
Roll the dice and pick heads. Canterbury and the Warriors are good enough on their day to be watchable and it is a 2pm kickoff so this might be a decent clash. Kieran Foran v RTS - that's the key matchup as whichever one gets his troops to follow him when the game is there to be won will decide this. Go the Bulldogs I guess. 

Knights over Cowboys
Remember North Queensland burst the Newcastle bubble a month or so back in Townsville and do have Michael Morgan back... but you can't tip the Cowboys on the road (or at home really) and Newcastle have Ponga, Pearce and Klemmer still running out there each week. Newcastle win here and they will be mighty hard pressed to miss out on the Top 8 so Knights it is.

2020 Tipping Record: 77/112 @ 68.8%
Round 01: 4/8
Round 02: 4/8
Round 03: 7/8
Round 04: 5/8
Round 05: 5/8
Round 06: 6/8
Round 07: 5/8
Round 08: 6/8
Round 09: 5/8
Round 10: 5/8
Round 11: 6/8
Round 12: 6/8
Round 13: 7/8
Round 14: 6/8
Round 15: tbd
===

Enjoy great moments from the Winfield Cup Era on Facebook and Twitter.

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We are back in business in 2020
Subscribe to the NOT The Footy Show Podcast on iTunes and Spotify
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Wednesday, 12 August 2020

NRL Round 14 Tips from The Postman | 2020 Season

The Postman's Tips for Round 142020.
Published August 12, 2020


7 from 8 is handy but the Warriors killed us for a second straight week.
They deserved to beat Manly though and the only other game that really sprung a surprise was the Titans sweeping aside the Cowboys but we got that one for you so happy days.
The tipping percentage is now inching towards 70% which would be even happier days territory but this coming week doesn't look as straight forward as Round 13.
Round 13 Results:
Roosters 24 Dragons 16 Correct
Warriors 26 Sea Eagles 22 
Incorrect
Rabbitohs 28 Broncos 10 - 
Correct
Storm 41 Bulldogs 10 Correct
Knights 44 Tigers 4
 Correct
Panthers 28 Raiders 12
 Correct
Titans 30 Cowboys 10 
Correct
Eels 14 Sharks 12
 Correct
2020 TIPPING STATS: 71/104 at 68.3%

NOT The Footy Show is off again this week sorry folks.
When we return you can Watch NOT The Footy Show on Youtube or listen to the Podcast via iTunes and Spotify.

Round 14 Tips:
Thursday
Roosters over Storm
The Storm don't have Smith or Munster this week so if the Roosters decide to bring anything close to their A Game for this one - they should be able to handle anything Hughes and Jacks and co throw at them. But the Chooks don't have Cordner, BMoz, Crichton, JWH and Tupou due to injury and Flanagan is seemingly out of favour so they aren't anywhere near better off injury wise than the Storm. But they still have Teddy and Keary and a good enough forward pack to hold Melbourne's without Cam Smith directing traffic. So go the Chooks and hope we get a game as good as the last time these two played.

Friday
Panthers over Warriors
Nathan Cleary and the Panthers have gone up several gears the past fortnight and if they get a sniff of blood in the water against the Warriors they could put 50+ on here. Just can't see the Warriors making it 3 straight wins - not against Penrith in the form they are currently in which is ruthless.

Eels over Dragons
Ben Hunt back to hooker makes sense I guess... but the Saints without Vaughan and Sims shouldn't trouble the Parramatta pack here and Hunt won't have any time or space to do his thing. Parra to put the final nail in Mary McGregor's coffin before the Shane Flana---- sorry Dean Young days begin. Parra by plenty.

Saturday
Sharks over Titans
Cronulla pushed Parra in the wet but lost and it took something special late to run down a bad Broncos team in Brisbane so don't get carried away with the Sharks. By the same token the Titans only beat a pathetic Cowboys team so calm the farm there as well. The Gold Coast benefit big time from AJ Brimson being back but the Sharks still should be your pick here with the game in Sydney.

Rabbitohs over Cowboys
South Sydney have got to travel to Townsville without Wayne Bennett on board the plane but if they drop this game then the blame will rest squarely on Cook, Reynolds, Walker and Mitchell - because if that foursome doesn't tear holes into this North Queensland team for 80 minutes they deserve to miss the Top 8... then again what team outside the current Top 8 right now looks like they deserve to be there?
The answer is none of them - so back Souths.

Raiders over Broncos
If there is even a game (welcome to the first COVID-19 breach punishment consistency test NRL) whichever Broncos turn up to Canberra are gonna find things tough. Canberra got embarrassed last week by a brilliant Penrith performance and will rebound - just can't see Brisbane showing anything new here and Canberra must win if they want to stay in the Top 4 race - and more importantly keep a good buffer zone between them and the teams outside the Top 8. Canberra by 20+.

Sunday
Knights over Sea Eagles
A game you'd normally give Manly every chance in but the Sea Eagles are playing really poorly of late and let what should have been a safe two points slip against the Warriors last week. The Knights woke up and crushed the Tigers on the back of the Kalyn Ponga show and unless Manly find a backbone asap this could get ugly. Knights but maybe not by plenty... maybe.

Tigers over Bulldogs
Michael Maguire is 5-8 as head coach at the Tigers... that's not good considering those losses include matches against the Titans and Warriors - games they simply had to win if they wanted to be considered a genuine Top 8 threat. BUT the season isn't over yet for them (well it kind of is but let's be kind to you Tigers fans) if they can beat the Dogs and beat them well. Canterbury only do anything if the ball goes through Kieran Foran - so if you are the Tigers you defend him well and the rest of the team won't beat you. But this Tigers team just got obliterated by the Knights for the second time this season so pick them with very little confidence they can show up and do what they are supposed to do.

2020 Tipping Record: 71/104 @ 68.3%
Round 01: 4/8
Round 02: 4/8
Round 03: 7/8
Round 04: 5/8
Round 05: 5/8
Round 06: 6/8
Round 07: 5/8
Round 08: 6/8
Round 09: 5/8
Round 10: 5/8
Round 11: 6/8
Round 12: 6/8
Round 13: 7/8
Round 14: tbd
===

Enjoy great moments from the Winfield Cup Era on Facebook and Twitter.

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We are back in business in 2020
Subscribe to the NOT The Footy Show Podcast on iTunes and Spotify
Watch every Episode with Coxsmith and Waz on Zoom via our YouTube Channel

Wednesday, 5 August 2020

NRL Round 13 Tips from The Postman | 2020 Season

The Postman's Tips for Round 132020.
Published August 5, 2020


6 from 8 again but Manly were blown apart by the Panthers who looked like a far more aggressive team at Brookie than they had been for the last fortnight. So apologies if you went against picking the team in 1st place to take a Manly team devoid of answers when a good team turned it on.

Anyhoo... the other game was a genuine upset with the Warriors taking advantage of a Wests Tigers team that just has no backbone when the blowtorch is applied by an inferior side... seriously the Tigers just turn it up when a team they should beat fights back... it is almost as embarrassing as Michael Maguire kicking a chair to make a point... he's the one who keeps tinkering with a halves combo that wasn't going that badly at the start of the year with Benji and Brooks... and now he doesn't have Harry Grant for a week to play Storm-ball. Interesting times at Concord for Madge... or is he already thinking of sunny Townsville?

To Round 13 and the tipping percentage is looking healthy at 66.7% - you can't be complaining about that figure.

Round 12 Results:
Rabbitohs 32 Dragons 24 Correct
Warriors 26 Tigers 20 
Incorrect
Sharks 36 Broncos 26 - 
Correct
Roosters 18 Titans 12 Correct
Raiders 14 Cowboys 12
 Correct
Panthers 42 Sea Eagles 12
 Incorrect
Eels 18 Bulldogs 16 
Correct
Storm 26 Knights 16
 Correct
2020 TIPPING STATS: 64/96 at 66.7%

NOT The Footy Show is aiming to record Wednesday night for Episode 221 so watch this space for the show.

Watch NOT The Footy Show on Youtube or listen to the Podcast via iTunes and Spotify.

Round 13 Tips:
Thursday
Roosters over Dragons
The Chooks are leaking good players ti injury left and right (or just flat out dropping halfbacks) but they still go into this clash with the Dragons as heavy favourites for good reason. Expect Saints to put Hunt back to 9 but I don't think it makes a big enough difference - as long as Keary and Tedesco are playing then the Roosters should win this.

Friday
Sea Eagles over Warriors
Dessie Hasler will loathe the 'effort' put up v Penrith so Manly will come out with a fire in their bellies this week... but the Warriors just upset the Tigers so they will fancy their chances here. Stick with Manly as long as DCE runs out behind that pack but this is no iron clad guarantee two points.
Rabbitohs over Broncos
Adam Reynolds should play and that makes Souths red hot favourites here. Brisbane improved last week but as long as the Bunnies hold their own in the middle their backs are going to have a field day on the edges given what Brisbane have thrown up of late in defence. Souths thanks.

Saturday

Storm over Bulldogs
No Cam Smith or Ryan Papenhuyzen for Melbourne so there's an opportunity for the Dogs here if they try and play some enterprising football. Melbourne will keep it simple and play through the middle and let Cam Munster do all the attacking - so if the Dogs throw some caution to the wind they could get Melbourne here... really they could. I'll still pick Melbourne but beware the Dogs.
Knights over Tigers
Would like to pick the Tigers - as this is the kind of game they actually lift for - but they were bad last week and the Knights still have Ponga, Klemmer and Pearce fit and that's enough to lean their way given what the Tigers dished up against the Warriors. But you aren't insane to tip Wests but I'm going the Knights.
Panthers over Raiders
Respect the league leaders and take Penrith.... unless you think Canberra's form the last 3 weeks really is a sign of things to come in their life after Hodgson reality? The safer pick is Penrith... maybe.

Sunday
Titans over Cowboys
Michael Morgan is back but the Cowboys will need him to immediately be in top form to lift their style of play given what they have shown this season without him. The Titans are known to disappoint when you tip them so be careful... but do you really want to put what little faith you have going into this game in the Cowboys? Me neither - Titans.
Eels over Sharks
If Cronulla want to really start nailing down a Top 8 spot then getting these two points would be huge. Right now the Sharks are in 6th and realistically after this weekend only two teams outside the Top 8 will still be in the running so getting to 18 points with 6 games left would give them potentially an 8 point lead on the 10th placed team. Parra will rest Ryan Matterson again but should learn from last week's inability to put a team away (the fact the Dogs got within 2 points is embarrassing for a 'title challenging' team like that Eels) and should display more adventure in their footy against Cronulla - so I'm going with the Eels.


2020 Tipping Record: 64/96 @ 66.7%
Round 01: 4/8
Round 02: 4/8
Round 03: 7/8
Round 04: 5/8
Round 05: 5/8
Round 06: 6/8
Round 07: 5/8
Round 08: 6/8
Round 09: 5/8
Round 10: 5/8
Round 11: 6/8
Round 12: 6/8
Round 13: tbd
===
Enjoy great moments from the Winfield Cup Era on Facebook and Twitter.
===
We are back in business in 2020
Subscribe to the NOT The Footy Show Podcast on iTunes and Spotify
Watch every Episode with Coxsmith and Waz on Zoom via our YouTube Channel