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Monday, 4 November 2013

2013 Melbourne Cup Bluffer's Guide - 6th Annual Edition! | #MelbCup #MelbourneCup

The Bluffer's Guide to the 2013 Melbourne Cup
By W D Nicolson - November 4, 2013
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Welcome to the 6th Annual 'Bluffer's Guide to the Melbourne Cup'.

It is firmly entrenched as the go-to piece here on www.wdnicolson.com every November, as we take a less than inspired look at the huge field for the 3,200m race at Flemington and judge the horses in the race based purely on the quality of their name.

This is our track record over the last five Melbourne Cups:
In 2008 - Bauer was picked to run 2nd and did...
In 2009 - Shocking was picked to run 4th and won...
In 2010 - Maluckyday was picked to run 2nd and did... So You Think was picked to run 1st and was 3rd, Americain was picked to run 5th and won and Harris Tweed was picked to run 3rd and finished 5th.
In 2011 - American was picked to repeat and finished 4th... Dunaden was picked to run 4th and won, and Lucas Cranach was picked to run 5th and was 3rd.
And last year, in 2012 - Mount Athos was picked to win and came in 5th, Glencadam Gold was tipped as a roughie and came in 6th, while the rest of my selections stunk deluxe... And of course, Green Moon continued to get the 'Pride of Endor' wordplay treatment but no love from my selections... and then won the thing.
So while the notes about the horses are what drives this piece, our track record picking runners to feature at the pointy end of the field isn't bad at all (well apart from last year's debacle).

But you aren't here for any punting tips, you're here to see if for the 6th straight year I can come up with some moderately interesting lines pertaining to the competing horses in the 2013 Melbourne Cup field right?

As we stress here on www.wdnicolson.com every year, think long and hard about what you could spend (or save) the excessive money you punt with on Melbourne Cup day... in short, don't be an idiot.

Anyhoo, to the Bluffer's Guide for another year and each horse has its current Sportingbet prices (as of 4/11/13) listed next to the horse's name and then you can read the 'Scouting Report'.

Now all horses are listed 1 through 24 with the field confirmed on Saturday - and given there's a lot of re-runners from recent years, we haven't tinkered with some punfection...
The Name is ALL that matters - 2013 Bluffer's Guide
DUNADEN #1 @ $41.00
$41 bucks to win? Aragorn will not be pleased.
GREEN MOON #2 @ $31.00
Won it last year and is The Pride of Endor. No word if Wicket is on board this time out.
RED CADEAUX #3 @ $61.00
Has a great name but is yet to win this year and we both know how much stock I put into actual on-course performance with these rankings...
SEA MOON #4 @ $15.00
Good to see the owners of Green Moon and Sea Moon were creative when it came to naming this batch of horses... I guess it could've been born at night and the owner looked up and said...
BROWN PANTHER #5 @ $19.00
60% of the time, it wins... everytime.

FIORENTE #6 @ $9.00
Current favourite... but last year's bio is worth repeating.
Taking time out from it's one horse campaign in the Italian Serie A... where it sits in a very credible 4th after 11 games. So look for a Top 6 finish here...
FORTELLER #7 @ $26.00
If you've read that this horse is going to win the Melbourne Cup already then...
DANDINO #8 @ $13.00
If it wins - smart money is on a newspaper headline as follows: Fine and Dandino!
ETHIOPIA #9 @ $81.00
This place produces pretty good long distance runners right? And the Melbourne Cup goes for rather long time...
FAWKNER #10 @ $17.00
I think it won something of note recently so that's a good sign... and brother James hit a quick fire 100 in a recent ODI - so signs a-go-go for this horse!
MOURAYAN #11 @ $101 
Wants more Ray Martin on 60 minutes apparently...
SEVILLE #12 @ $16.00
Pretty decent basketballer for the Hawks and Kings from memory...
SUPER COOL #13 @ $51.00
The less than steller follow up to the movie 'Super Bad'...
MASKED MARVEL #14 @ $14
Why hasn't there ever been a 'Horseman' superhero? 
MOUNT ATHOS #15 @ $10.00
We picked it last year on name alone... punters still like its chances. So it might just be ready to... explode?
ROYAL EMPIRE #16 @ $17.00
With all due respect it's no Galactic Empire... unless the Emperor himself is taking the reigns... but nice to have two Star Wars references on offer this year kids.
VOLEUSE DE COEURS #17 @ $16.00
I don't want to know what this means in French... it's cooler sounding without that knowledge. For all we know it could be 'Runs from Toilet'.
HAWKSPUR #18 @ $15.00
Does nothing for me name wise... so can't win.
SIMENON #19 @ $17.00
Argentinian midfielder of some note in the 1990s right?
IBICENCO #20 @ $81.00
Take two Ibicenco's and call me in the morning...
VEREMA #21 @ $14.00
Stumped me... even a walk out on to the balcony and back gave me no inspiration. Yet this horse is $14 to win the Cup so it has something going for it surely?
DEAR DEMI #22 @ $17.00
Ashton Kutcher doesn't want to see any more of this horse... get it?
TRES BLUE #23 @ $19.00
The horse is pretty blue right?
RUSCELLO #24 @ $51.00
Last horse and it's giving me nothing... where is Waikikamukau when you need it in the field to keep things interesting?

Ok that's the name game taken care of... now to the actual predictions.
2013 PREDICTIONS as of November 4...
(I reserve the right to change once the final field is set, will lock in my selections by Tuesday 3pm)
1st - Royal Empire
2nd -  Sea Moon
3rd - Mount Athos
4th - Dandino
5th - Fiorente
6th - Run from Toilet (Voleuse De Coeurs)
Roughies - Super Cool at $51 and Dunaden at $41.

Let's be honest - we've got no idea about any real chances here but hopefully this wasn't the worse read you've had in early November.
So after that mishmash of referential wit, ask yourself why aren't your Melbourne Cup selections based on name alone?
Feel free to comment below or tweet me @wdnicolson

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