Thursday 28 November 2013

#NFL 2013: Week 13 Picks - Head to Head and with Spread | #nflpicks #nflpickem

2013 NFL PICKS - WEEK 13
- AFC and NFC Picks - Head to Head and with the Spread -
By The Postman, November 28, 2013

WEEKLY RECAP: Week 12 was ordinary to say the least... 6-7 with the GB-MIN tie makes for awful reading. The days of double digit wins look over as the playoffs (and the end of the regular season) approach as the playoff race kicks into gear and games will only get tougher to pick. Still, we're not going abysmally. With the spread we actually went 7-7 which is only the third time this season our Spread Weekly Record has been better than our Head to Head.

H2H UPSETS PICKED: Dallas and Pittsburgh did their thing against NY Giants and Cleveland, but Indianapolis and Chicago fell away badly against Arizona and St Louis. Ouch. So 2 from 4 Correct for Week 12 (per Pick'Em favourite/underdog listing).

H2H LESSONS LEARNED: Well we've got on the Steelers at the right time but St Louis are making a mockery of our declaration earlier in the year we'd never pick them again (I think they lost that week at home to Tennessee). Indianapolis are rotten right now but when you look at who they've lost to (and beaten) well you don't feel that bad about picking them going into the contests... New England just got it done after sporting Denver a huge lead and Houston are a shell of their former selves... San Diego win the un-winnable then drop a winnable game the next week traditionally so beware. And how did Detroit lose to Tampa at home???

Our Week 13 Picks are up next...

Not gonna happen... thanks Atlanta
My 2013 NFL Season Preview and SuperBowl picks are here - and every week throughout the NFL in 2013 I will be posting my picks here on and via @wdnicolson.

Last year in the Yahoo! Sports Pro Football Pick'em competition I managed to finish in the 98th percentile (so Top 2%) of tipsters across the world... completely surprising myself by using the rule of thumb I (for some reason) refuse to back entirely in my NRL Tipping (that is pick favourites and then pick favourites and then, and only then... pick favourites and maybe one or two gut picks - which doesn't hurt you as much with up to 16 NFL games a week v 8 NRL games).

Week 13 is Thanksgiving Day central this Friday (Australian time) - so there's 3 games on the schedule kids.
=====WEEK 13 PICKS===== 

Head to Head Picks per Yahoo! Pick'Em Overall League:
TNF: Detroit over Green Bay, Dallas over Oakland, Baltimore over Pittsburgh; Sunday: Cleveland over Jacksonville, Chicago over Minnesota+, Miami over NY Jets+, Philadelphia over Arizona, Carolina over Tampa Bay, New England over Houston, Buffalo over Atlanta, San Francisco over St Louis, Denver over Kansas City, San Diego over Cincinnati; SNF: Washington over NY Giants*MNF: New Orleans over Seattle+.
Quick Notes: The only reason we're taking the Lions over the Packers is M Stafford has to be better than M Flynn. Dallas over Oakland doesn't sit comfortably despite it being in Dallas, while Baltimore over Pittsburgh is a roll of the dice let's be hone. Minnesota have no right being favourites v Chicago, and the same goes for the NY Jets (who are okay or terrible) over Miami (who are just average week to week but that can win from time to time). Philly haven't won at home in eons but do you trust Carson Palmer and his Cardinals on the road even at 7-4? Indy at home to Tennessee... over to you Mr Luck. Buffalo can't even think about losing to Atlanta (as the Bills are still a slim playoff hope), while St Louis, Kansas City, Cincinnati, NY Giants and Seattle are more than capable of proving me wrong this particular week.
* Home Upset + Away Upset
Year to Date: 108/174 @ 62.1%
Week 1: 11-5 (Overall Rank 20,862 - 65th percentile)
Week 2: 10-6 (Overall Rank 25,998 - 59th percentile)
Week 3: 8-8 (Overall Rank 20,274 - 64th percentile)
Week 4: 10-6 (Overall Rank 21,269 - 68th percentile)
Week 5: 7-7 (Overall Rank 24,952 - 63rd percentile)
Week 6: 12-3 (Overall Rank 13,877 - 79th percentile)
Week 7: 11-4 (Overall Rank 6,721 - 90th percentile)
Week 8: 11-2 (Overall Rank 5,393 - 92nd percentile)
Week 9: 7-6 (Overall Rank 6,534 - 90th percentile)
Week 10: 7-7 (Overall Rank 6,367 - 90th percentile)
Week 11: 9-6 (Overall Rank 7,359 - 89th percentile)
Week 12: 6-7 (1 tie) (Overall Rank 7,498 - 89th percentile)
'With the Spread' Picks per my Yahoo! Pick'Em League:
Detroit -6.0, Dallas -9.5, Pittsburgh +2.5, Cleveland -7.0, Tennessee +4.5, Chicago +1.0, Miami +2.0, Philadelphia -3.0, Carolina -8.5, New England -7.5, Buffalo -3.0, St Louis +8.5, Kansas City +4.5, San Diego -1.0, Washington +1.5, New Orleans +5.0.
Quick Notes: Stafford that -6.0 is all on you, Dallas having to win by 10 is a mistake from me, while Pittsburgh +3.0 felt a lot more comfortable, taking the Titans with any start thanks, I really like Washington at home v the Giants who are baaaaad. Then again so are Washington. New Orleans will score points, I'm not convinced Seattle are 5 points better than them either.
Year to Date: 83-88-5 @ 48.5%
Week 1: 4-11-1
Week 2: 6-10-0
Week 3: 8-7-1
Week 4: 10-5-0
Week 5: 6-8-0
Week 6: 8-7-0
Week 7: 11-4-0
Week 8: 10-3-0
Week 9: 4-9-0
Week 10: 6-8-0
Week 11: 3-9-3
Week 12: 7-7-0
You can tweet me your NFL picks every week @wdnicolson and I will list my final picks from that account every Thursday Night.
You can join the Pro Football Pick'em League I'm in here - which is a 'SPREAD' competition (Tony Kornheiser's Radio Show Group - so if you join best you are somewhat familiar with who TK is and possibly his radio show or PTI). | Group ID#: 35104 | Password: andy | Or just join the regular Pick'em Overall league.
During 2013 I will be reading Peter King's 'THE MMQB' Website every week - I suggest you do the same.