Thursday 14 November 2013

#NFL 2013: Week 11 Picks - Head to Head and with Spread | #nflpicks #nflpickem

2013 NFL PICKS - WEEK 11
- AFC and NFC Picks - Head to Head and with the Spread -
By The Postman, November 14, 2013

WEEKLY RECAP: Week 10 was another so-so performance in Head to Head - barely cracking .500 at... well 7-7. Sure there were some underdogs getting the victory but the high points of a few weeks ago seem so long ago... are the 11-2/10-4 weeks gettable again? Spread picks saw us go 6-8 which wasn't terrible really... Overall still going nicely at 6,467th in the cosmos... yes the cosmos people at 93-54 Head to Head.

H2H UPSETS PICKED: Detroit over Chicago and Baltimore over Cincinnati came good (both tried to lose it late), while Houston look good in recent games but find ways to lose... thanks Texans. So 2 from 3 Correct for Week 10 (per Pick'Em favourite/underdog listing).

H2H LESSONS LEARNED: Washington suck... Green Bay might actually be better off with Matt Flynn replacing Aaron Rodgers this week, the same Flynn that the Seahawks, Raiders and Bills didn't want a part of in the last 9 months (Flynn didn't play last week and only signed up this week - some niff nuff not named Flynn is the GB starter this week) - so if we're saying Flynn is the best option - who is Scott Tolzien really? Jacksonville and Tampa got off the duck and Tennessee and Miami may have kissed their playoff hopes goodbye as a result... Houston can't win... Arizona might not suck... San Francisco need to find a way to get Colin K of 2012 back under centre instead of the Colin K 2013 version that's been stinking up the joint this year (and yet they are still 6-3!)... and finally Dallas will only beat ordinary teams, same goes for the NY Giants. How good is the AFC East? Well Philly are still very much in the mix... as are the Giants who started 0-6!!! Gotta love parity.

Our Week 11 Picks are up next...

Not gonna happen... thanks Atlanta
My 2013 NFL Season Preview and SuperBowl picks are here - and every week throughout the NFL in 2013 I will be posting my picks here on and via @wdnicolson.

Last year in the Yahoo! Sports Pro Football Pick'em competition I managed to finish in the 98th percentile (so Top 2%) of tipsters across the world... completely surprising myself by using the rule of thumb I (for some reason) refuse to back entirely in my NRL Tipping (that is pick favourites and then pick favourites and then, and only then... pick favourites and maybe one or two gut picks - which doesn't hurt you as much with up to 16 NFL games a week v 8 NRL games).

Week 11 begins with Tennessee hosting Indianapolis on Friday (Australian time) with both coming off awful losses last week. Yes we said awful... the Titans lost to the winless Jaguars and the Colts got beaten 38-8 by the Rams... in Indy!
=====WEEK 11 PICKS===== 

Head to Head Picks per Yahoo! Pick'Em Overall League:
TNF: Indianapolis over Tennessee; Sunday: NY Jets over Buffalo+, Baltimore over Chicago+, Cincinnati over Cleveland, Philadelphia over Washington, Detroit over Pittsburgh, Atlanta over Tampa Bay, Arizona over Jacksonville, Houston over Oakland, Miami over San Diego*, New Orleans over San Francisco, NY Giants over Green Bay, Seattle over Minnesota; SNF: Denver over Kansas City; MNF: New England over Carolina+.
Quick Notes: Last chance for Baltimore to prove they can mount any kind of title defence on the road in Chicago, Miami at home to San Diego just screams pick me, New England on the road on Monday night at Carolina seems a leap of faith but then again Tom Brady v Cam Newton kids.
* Home Upset + Away Upset
Year to Date: 93/147 @ 63.2%
Week 1: 11-5 (Overall Rank 20,862 - 65th percentile)
Week 2: 10-6 (Overall Rank 25,998 - 59th percentile)
Week 3: 8-8 (Overall Rank 20,274 - 64th percentile)
Week 4: 10-6 (Overall Rank 21,269 - 68th percentile)
Week 5: 7-7 (Overall Rank 24,952 - 63rd percentile)
Week 6: 12-3 (Overall Rank 13,877 - 79th percentile)
Week 7: 11-4 (Overall Rank 6,721 - 90th percentile)
Week 8: 11-2 (Overall Rank 5,393 - 92nd percentile)
Week 9: 7-6 (Overall Rank 6,534 - 90th percentile)
Week 10: 7-7 (Overall Rank 6,367 - 90th percentile)
'With the Spread' Picks per my Yahoo! Pick'Em League:
Indianapolis -3.0, NY Jets +1.0, Baltimore +3.0, Cleveland +5.5, Philadelphia -3.5, Detroit -2.0, Atlanta -1.0, Jacksonville +7.0, Oakland +7.0, Miami +1.0, New Orleans -3.0, NY Giants -5.0, Seattle -12.0, Kansas City +8.5, New England +2.5.
Quick Notes: I give the Browns a real chance to beating the Bengals so +5.5 makes sense, Jacksonville and Oakland +7.0 is another leap of faith but then again they are playing Arizona and Houston, Green Bay +5.5 is being generous to the guy not called Matt Flynn playing QB for the Packers really (have now changed to NY Giants -5.0), while Kansas City getting 8.5 with a banged up Manning just has to be taken.
Year to Date: 73-72-2 @ 50.3%
Week 1: 4-11-1
Week 2: 6-10-0
Week 3: 8-7-1
Week 4: 10-5-0
Week 5: 6-8-0
Week 6: 8-7-0
Week 7: 11-4-0
Week 8: 10-3-0
Week 9: 4-9-0
Week 10: 6-8-0
You can tweet me your NFL picks every week @wdnicolson and I will list my final picks from that account every Thursday Night.
You can join the Pro Football Pick'em League I'm in here - which is a 'SPREAD' competition (Tony Kornheiser's Radio Show Group - so if you join best you are somewhat familiar with who TK is and possibly his radio show or PTI). | Group ID#: 35104 | Password: andy | Or just join the regular Pick'em Overall league.
During 2013 I will be reading Peter King's 'THE MMQB' Website every week - I suggest you do the same.