Thursday 21 November 2013

#NFL 2013: Week 12 Picks - Head to Head and with Spread | #nflpicks #nflpickem

2013 NFL PICKS - WEEK 12
- AFC and NFC Picks - Head to Head and with the Spread -
By The Postman, November 21, 2013

WEEKLY RECAP: Week 11 was an improvement in Head to Head with a decent 9-6 record - we missed on 3 of 4 upsets so that hurt the overall percentage compared to everyone else and we dropped to the 89th percentile after being in the 90s from Week 7 on. With the Spread however... well less said the better, our Week 11 record of 3-9 (with 3 pushes) was well... awful. We only got Miami getting 1.0 and Philly and Seattle giving a combined 15.5... and missed everything else!

H2H UPSETS PICKED: NY Jets and Baltimore stunk it up on the road against Buffalo and Chicago, yet somehow stay in playoff contention. While we got Miami at home over the inconsistent Chargers but New England didn't get a call late and dropped their game on the road to Carolina. So 1 from 4 Correct for Week 11 (per Pick'Em favourite/underdog listing).

H2H LESSONS LEARNED: Gotta respect EJ Manuel for the Bills... it was easy to forget he's been injured after a bright start and the Jets have Geno Smith so - we're idiots for picking them on the road. Baltimore got lucky last week against Cincy, not so much against the Bears in OT. Pittsburgh may not be woeful after all and Detroit are still inconsistent in big games, while Houston and Atlanta STIIIIIINK. Carolina get a favourable call late to beat New England, while Denver put Kansas City somewhat in their place. Credit to the Buccaneers and Oakland though - good wins. And hey - are Arizona decent? Really? I remember the buffet I had in Arizona once... I recall it being about as decent as they appear to be in 2013.

Our Week 12 Picks are up next...

Not gonna happen... thanks Atlanta
My 2013 NFL Season Preview and SuperBowl picks are here - and every week throughout the NFL in 2013 I will be posting my picks here on and via @wdnicolson.

Last year in the Yahoo! Sports Pro Football Pick'em competition I managed to finish in the 98th percentile (so Top 2%) of tipsters across the world... completely surprising myself by using the rule of thumb I (for some reason) refuse to back entirely in my NRL Tipping (that is pick favourites and then pick favourites and then, and only then... pick favourites and maybe one or two gut picks - which doesn't hurt you as much with up to 16 NFL games a week v 8 NRL games).

Week 12 begins with Atlanta hosting New Orleans on Friday (Australian time) - a game that looked sensational as the Thursday Nighter for the NFL Network entering the season but now... well not so much.
=====WEEK 12 PICKS===== 

Head to Head Picks per Yahoo! Pick'Em Overall League:
TNF: New Orleans over Atlanta; Sunday: Pittsburgh over Cleveland+, Detroit over Tampa Bay, Green Bay over Minnesota, Kansas City over San Diego, Chicago over St Louis+, Carolina over Miami, Baltimore over NY Jets, Houston over Jacksonville, Oakland over Tennessee, Indianapolis over Arizona+, Dallas over NY Giants+SNF: Denver over New England; MNF: San Francisco over Washington.
Quick Notes: I hesitated on Kansas City over San Diego... and am giving Big Ben the benefit of the doubt on the road in Cleveland. Hesitated again on Chicago over St Louis, Carolina over Miami, Ravens over Jets, Houston over Jaguars (for a split second but then remembered the Texans have lost winnable games of late) and even Indy and Dallas over Arizona and the Giants. Yes we've only gone for 4 upsets but if feels like about 7 or 8...
* Home Upset + Away Upset
Year to Date: 104/162 @ 64.2%
Week 1: 11-5 (Overall Rank 20,862 - 65th percentile)
Week 2: 10-6 (Overall Rank 25,998 - 59th percentile)
Week 3: 8-8 (Overall Rank 20,274 - 64th percentile)
Week 4: 10-6 (Overall Rank 21,269 - 68th percentile)
Week 5: 7-7 (Overall Rank 24,952 - 63rd percentile)
Week 6: 12-3 (Overall Rank 13,877 - 79th percentile)
Week 7: 11-4 (Overall Rank 6,721 - 90th percentile)
Week 8: 11-2 (Overall Rank 5,393 - 92nd percentile)
Week 9: 7-6 (Overall Rank 6,534 - 90th percentile)
Week 10: 7-7 (Overall Rank 6,367 - 90th percentile)
Week 11: 9-6 (Overall Rank 7,359 - 89th percentile)
'With the Spread' Picks per my Yahoo! Pick'Em League:
New Orleans -9.5, Pittsburgh +1.5, Detroit -9.0, Green Bay -4.5, San Diego +4.5, Chicago +1.0, Miami +4.5, Baltimore -3.5, Jacksonville +10.0, Oakland -1.0, Indianapolis +2.5, Dallas +2.5, Denver -2.5, San Francisco -5.5.
Quick Notes: Push city last week - and we're taking all up 7 teams with the points in Week 12. Good luck with that right? After all we went 3-9-3 last week... to drop back under .500 for the first time since Week 7.
Year to Date: 76-81-5 @ 48.4%
Week 1: 4-11-1
Week 2: 6-10-0
Week 3: 8-7-1
Week 4: 10-5-0
Week 5: 6-8-0
Week 6: 8-7-0
Week 7: 11-4-0
Week 8: 10-3-0
Week 9: 4-9-0
Week 10: 6-8-0
Week 11: 3-9-3
You can tweet me your NFL picks every week @wdnicolson and I will list my final picks from that account every Thursday Night.
You can join the Pro Football Pick'em League I'm in here - which is a 'SPREAD' competition (Tony Kornheiser's Radio Show Group - so if you join best you are somewhat familiar with who TK is and possibly his radio show or PTI). | Group ID#: 35104 | Password: andy | Or just join the regular Pick'em Overall league.
During 2013 I will be reading Peter King's 'THE MMQB' Website every week - I suggest you do the same.