Thursday 27 June 2013

#NRL 2013: Round 16 Tips Late Mail Predictions Preview #NRLLateMail #NRLDT #Supercoach

ROUND 16 TIPS and LATE MAIL
Plus The Postman's NRL Dream Team/NRL Super Coach Picks

 2013 NRL Premiership

By W D Nicolson - June 27, 2013


EXTRA LATEST OF LATE MAIL ADDED THROUGHOUT ROUND
ALL EXPERT PICKS AND SPECIAL FRIED RICE ADDED AS RECEIVED

So QLD won Game 2 huh?

Moving right along... nothing to see here, we're going to a decider - less said about my Lang Park experience the better... it was handy, bar the result of course.

So the big Late Mail news is Cameron Smith, James Maloney and Paul Gallen definitely won't back up (and Trent Merrin is suspended for a week)... so The Postman's advice is below - TIME TO FRET!

To the tips!

For our analysis of Tuesday team selections for Round 16 - click here.

As far as Late Mail goes the rolling lockout for all you NRL Dream Team and NRL Super Coach nerds should have allowed you to make any last minute changes quite easily, but once again our Latest of Late Mail should help in any selections you make before the round begins.

The Postman has a bunch of NRL Dream Team and NRL Super Coach gems again this week...
Note for FootyTab in Round 16 - the official TAB site didn't have them uploaded until Friday - so we are using the lines from another site on Thursday afternoon.

@NRLTweet Player of the Year

 Voting Allocation for Round 16 of the NRL is below.
NRL TIPPING PREVIEW + LATE MAIL
ROUND 16, 2013
Wednesday Odds Courtesy of Sportingbet | NRL LADDER
Friday 7:45pm at ANZ Stadium
RABBITOHS $1.20 v $4.80 RAIDERS
FOOTYTAB: CAN +10.5
Tuesday Teams Analysed on NRL Injured List
@NRLTweet Player of the Year Award Voters:
| Nigel Wilbow @parramatters Warrick Nicolson @NRLTweet |
Track live round votes via #NRLTweetPOTY
@NRLTweet's PREDICTION:
Souths please. Canberra blew a golden opportunity to put themselves in a box-seat for a playoff spot last week against the Tigers and played uninspiring 'percentage' football in the wet. The Bunnies played in just as much rain but looked far better missing more key players. You've gotta pick Souths by 7 points but if Canberra have any pride - they won't let it be a big margin.
 LATEST OF LATE MAIL:
RABBITOHS: Inglis, Merritt, Te'o and McQueen should all backup, forcing Farrell, Hunt, Keary and Starling out of the 17. George Burgess is still suspended, so Tom Burgess might get another run here.
LATE UPDATE? McQueen OUT, Lowe starts. Starling on bench - as is T Burgess.
The Postman's DT/SC TIP: Reynolds and Sutton have been spun gold... while Inglis is just good enough to put his SC BE of 87 under serious threat. PS. I'm trading George Burgess in both comps... mind you, it is for Farah.
RAIDERS: Papalii only played 11 minutes so he's a certainty to backup. Will be interesting to see how long it takes for Bill Tupou to usurp Sami Sauiluma on the wing - but it might not be til next week. Jarrad Kennedy will be 18th man.
LATE UPDATE? Canberra are 1-17.
The Postman's DT/SC TIP: None of Canberra's props are wise buys... so leave those tempting BEs alone.
If you have a DT/SC question grab The Postman on Twitter @NRLTweet and I'll answer there.
Saturday 5:35pm at Leichhardt Oval
TIGERS $2.60 v $1.52 STORM
FOOTYTAB: WTG +8.5
Tuesday Teams Analysed on NRL Injured List
@NRLTweet Player of the Year Award Voters:
| Maria Tsialis @mtsialis Adrian McMurray @adrmcm |
Track live round votes via #NRLTweetPOTY
@NRLTweet's PREDICTION:
No Cameron Smith for the visitors and Robbie Farah will backup... so don't discount the Tigers at Leichhardt. But still pick Melbourne by 8 points if Cronk and Slater both play. Moving on...
 LATEST OF LATE MAIL:
TIGERS: Farah should play and Woods barely got on the field so he'll also backup. Will Reddy stay in the 2nd row or will he shift to the bench and Blair move into the backrow with Buchanan starting? Tedesco is expected to play, however Sean Meaney or Reddy would replace him at fullback if out.
LATE UPDATE? Reddy OUT, Murdoch-Masila IN.
The Postman's DT/SC TIP: DO TRADE ROBBIE FARAH IN... or next week. But if you haven't got him - do it quickly.
STORM: Smith is OUT, he'll have a rest with some stitching around the eye, so Hinchcliffe moves to 9 and Harris probably starts at 13. Cronk and Slater probably backup, while Hoffman looked tired in Game 2... so might get a rest. There is a suspicion Slater's elbow is a little tender also... Griffin or Vave will join the bench for Smith.
LATE UPDATE? Garbutt OUT, Glasby, McLean IN.
The Postman's DT/SC TIP: DO NOT TRADE CAMERON SMITH OUT.
If you have a DT/SC question grab The Postman on Twitter @NRLTweet and I'll answer there.
Saturday 7:35pm at Centrebet Stadium
PANTHERS $1.62 v $2.35 DRAGONS
FOOTYTAB: STI +3.5
Tuesday Teams Analysed on NRL Injured List
@NRLTweet Player of the Year Award Voters:
| Justin Davies @dragonpunk12 Matt Trodden @trods2906 |
Track live round votes via #NRLTweetPOTY
@NRLTweet's PREDICTION:
Yikes - I had to make a decision between these two horrible sides like a month ago... flip a coin, go with the home team (Of course, the away team won last start...). I don't know, and don't really care so pick Penrith by 4 points.
 LATEST OF LATE MAIL:
PANTHERS: There's a little doubt over Jason Roberts (cheekbone) being ready so Travis Robinson might be on standby here. Otherwise - don't expect any changes.
LATE UPDATE? Docker OUT, Simpkins IN.
The Postman's DT/SC TIP: James Roberts is too big a risk to take a punt on even as a cheapie... just not enough job security. Give him his 2nd game to show you we are wrong first.
DRAGONS: Merrin is out for a week after Tate headbutted his fist. Stockwell and Weyman probably start as a result. Will Matt Cooper finally play? If he does, Prior goes to the bench - otherwise Will Matthews comes in. Dugan and Morris looked fine at the after-match function on Wednesday night - so they'll play.
LATE UPDATE? Runciman IN.
The Postman's DT/SC TIP: No soup for you - 1 week!
If you have a DT/SC question grab The Postman on Twitter @NRLTweet and I'll answer there.
Sunday 2:00pm at Hunter Stadium
KNIGHTS $1.53 v $2.55 TITANS
FOOTYTAB: GLD +4.5
Tuesday Teams Analysed on NRL Injured List
@NRLTweet Player of the Year Award Voters:
| Matt Vickers @mercurialmattyv Matt Spillane @devonhead |
Track live round votes via #NRLTweetPOTY
@NRLTweet's PREDICTION:
Two questions: Are the Knights a good team masquerading as a inconsistent mess? And are the Titans a decent team playing just that little bit better week in week out than all but maybe four teams in the comp? I'm not sure on either count - though the Titans impress me more often than not when I watch them, and the Knights do not. But this is at Hunter Stadium - so I lean - just - the Knights by 4 points.
 LATEST OF LATE MAIL:
KNIGHTS: Boyd is the only player to backup from Game 2 and he will. Buderus is expected to play, while Costigan looks set to hold his spot on the bench after some yo-yo weeks between NSW Cup and First Grade.
LATE UPDATE?
The Postman's DT/SC TIP: Need a POD in your DT halves? Jarrod Mullen is 373k with a BE of 26... even when Gidley returns - he is Kick Metre royalty.
TITANS: Taylor misses with a sternum injury, while Myles and Bird will be assessed on Saturday. Bird or Myles will come in for Taylor, with the other probably starting off the bench. Mead is expected to play with O'Dwyer his cover in the centres.
LATE UPDATE? Bird is a certainty, but Myles is a game-time decision.
The Postman's DT/SC TIP: Ashley Harrison is a GREAT buy at the moment... yes he'll miss Round 18 with a bye but he's going to play 80 minutes a week for the foreseeable future (if not every week).
If you have a DT/SC question grab The Postman on Twitter @NRLTweet and I'll answer there.
Sunday 4:00pm at Mt Smart Stadium (NZ Time)
WARRIORS $1.35 v $3.30 BRONCOS
FOOTYTAB: BRI +6.5
Tuesday Teams Analysed on NRL Injured List
@NRLTweet Player of the Year Award Voters:
| Ben Hoese @gunnermcdagget Matthew Duncan @mrpeninsula |
Track live round votes via #NRLTweetPOTY
@NRLTweet's PREDICTION:
I DO NOT want to pick the Warriors... repeat, I do not want to pick the Warriors. But I also don't like Brisbane's half/five-eighth combination... repeat, I do not like Brisbane's half/five-eighth combination. I want to see how many Broncos backup from Game 2 before confirming my initial selection... which is the Warriors by 4 points. Check back Friday arvo for my 'lock it in Eddie' pick.
 LATEST OF LATE MAIL:
WARRIORS: Locke should come in at fullback and push Fisiiahi to the wing with Laumape probably missing out come gameday.
LATE UPDATE?
The Postman's DT/SC TIP: Locke's hip is not reliable, while Fisiiahi's spot isn't secure enough as a result! Avoid both.
BRONCOS: Thaiday, Gillett and Parker will backup, but Hodges will be a gametime decision. Expect Glenn or Gillett to move to the centres if Hodges does not play.
LATE UPDATE?
The Postman's DT/SC TIP: Scott Prince is NOT a good buy, no matter what his breakeven may tell you.
If you have a DT/SC question grab The Postman on Twitter @NRLTweet and I'll answer there.
Sunday 6:30pm at 1300SMILES Stadium
COWBOYS $1.50 v $2.65 SHARKS
FOOTYTAB: CRO +5.5
Tuesday Teams Analysed on NRL Injured List
@NRLTweet Player of the Year Award Voters:
| Greg Delaney @gregdelaney84 Ben Hoese @gunnermcdagget |
Track live round votes via #NRLTweetPOTY
@NRLTweet's PREDICTION:
Want to pick the Sharks here... but also said that if the Cowboys won on the road last start I should really show some respect and take them at home next start. Sorry Cows. Thurston and Scott were sensational in Game 2 but I have little faith in the rest of the Nth Qld crew to back them up (bar a likely fired up James Tamou)... and though Paul Gallen is out for the Sharks and Luke Lewis is a bit dinged up - I will take the consistency over the Sharks (even on the road) over the 'will they or won't they be good' MO of the Cowboys this season... Sharks by 2 points.
 LATEST OF LATE MAIL:
COWBOYS: Thurston, Scott and Tate should all backup - with JT looking particularly spry in Game 2. Matt Bowen is running this week but will the Cowboys risk him so quickly? Somehow it looks like Thorby might be preferred to Taumalolo on the bench. Cooper also returns from a leg injury.
LATE UPDATE?
The Postman's DT/SC TIP: Tamou probably comes straight back in for Game 3... so leave him alone for the moment (as Cows have the bye the week after Game 3).
SHARKS: No Gallen, maybe no Lewis. But Fifita will play. Also if the Sharks take Gibbs and Ross to Townsville - you know they are playing. Gordon is also expected to play after missing last start.
LATE UPDATE?
The Postman's DT/SC TIP: All Gallen plans are off the table... and those who grabbed Fifita before are positively giddy (but disappointed for Gal).
If you have a DT/SC question grab The Postman on Twitter @NRLTweet and I'll answer there.
Monday 7:00pm at Allianz Stadium
ROOSTERS $1.67 v $2.25 SEA EAGLES
FOOTYTAB: MAN +4.5
Tuesday Teams Analysed on NRL Injured List
@NRLTweet Player of the Year Award Voters:
| Warrick Nicolson @NRLTweet Matt Spillane @devonhead |
Track live round votes via #NRLTweetPOTY
@NRLTweet's PREDICTION:
Manly have let me down in recent weeks... badly. But with James Maloney now missing - can they take advantage against a Sydney team that played superbly undermanned against the Dogs? The forward matchup is huge - because if Manly can cancel the Roosters out... I prefer DCE and Foran to Pearce and Mortimer... let me sleep on it, and I can see a change coming Friday arvo but right now - Roosters by 2 points... but that might as well be Sea Eagles by 2 points... yep, got splinters. With Brett Stewart likely to play - he tips my tip: FINAL TIP: Sea Eagles by 1 point.
 LATEST OF LATE MAIL:
ROOSTERS: James Maloney's done a cheekbone in Game 2 - so he's out (and possibly for a few weeks as well), so Mortimer would move to five-eighth and get the goalkicking duties. Friend probably now plays 80 minutes, allowing the Roosters to play Liu as an extra forward on the bench. Jennings and Pearce should backup.
LATE UPDATE? Seluini or Liu will play on the bench in place of the injured Maloney.
The Postman's DT/SC TIP: Unless Maloney is ruled out for the rest of the season - trading in Mortimer is nothing but a very short term option. Don't do it.
SEA EAGLES: DCE will backup - after making 26 tackles in 23 minutes at lock in Game 2. Watmough will also play given the game is on Monday night. But will Brett Stewart play? Looking increasingly likely. So Hiku would miss out probably.
LATE UPDATE? Brett Stewart is almost certain to play, with Peta Hiku to miss out.
The Postman's DT/SC TIP: Steve Matai was a fine buy a few weeks ago... but caveat emptor... he's a massive risk if you haven't got the trades to waste.
If you have a DT/SC question grab The Postman on Twitter @NRLTweet and I'll answer there.
What are your tips for Round 16? 
Are you taking any advice from our Awesome Foursome panel this year?
Let us know by commenting below or replying on Twitter.
@NRLTWEET's 2013 TIPPING RECORD 
TIPPING TOTAL AFTER 15 ROUNDS - 69/111 @ 62.2%
FOOTYTAB TOTAL AFTER 15 ROUNDS - 59/111 @ 53.2%
SPECIAL FRIED RICE involves each tipster taking a 'certainty' in a set order, with the tipster with the highest score at the end of the year literally winning a mountain of Special Fried Rice. The SFR Order rotates every week and is a fun way to put your rice where your mouth is.
ROUND 16 SELECTIONS | The Awesome Foursome
@NRLTweet
Warrick D. Nicolson, The NRL Tweet
TIPPING:
Rabbitohs Storm Panthers Knights Warriors Sharks Sea Eagles
LW: 2/4 | SEASON: 69/111
FOOTYTAB:
CAN +10.5 WTG +8.5 PEN -3.5 GLD +4.5
BRI +6.5 CRO +5.5 MAN +4.5
LW: 3/4 | SEASON: 59/111
Special Fried Rice: RABBITOHS over Raiders (Has 1st Pick)
Season SFR: 10.5/15
CAN4 CBY3 SOU2 MEL1 CRO4 MAN3 SYD2 SYD1 SOU4 MEL3 NQL2 SOU1 MEL4 CRO3 CBY2 SOU1
TIPPING:
Raiders Storm Panthers Knights Broncos Cowboys Sea Eagles
LW: 1/4 | SEASON: 58/111
FOOTYTAB:
CAN +10.5 MEL -8.5 PEN -3.5 NEW -4.5
BRI +6.5 NQL -5.5 MAN +4.5
LW: 2/4 | SEASON: 51/1111
Special Fried Rice: KNIGHTS over Titans (Has 3rd Pick)
Season SFR: 9/15
SOU2 SOU1 MAN4 PAR3 NQL2 MEL1 BRI4 WAR3 STI2 BRI1 NEW4 NEW3 CBY2 SOU1 MEL4 GLD3
@Horry37
Jake Hauritz, Channel 9 Darwin
TIPPING:
Rabbitohs Storm Panthers Knights Warriors Sharks Roosters
LW: 2/4 | SEASON: 74/111
FOOTYTAB:
CAN +10.5 MEL -8.5 PEN -3.5 NEW -4.5
WAR -6.5 CRO +5.5 MAN +4.5
LW: 3/4 | SEASON: 52/111
Special Fried Rice: STORM over Tigers (Has 2nd Pick)
Season SFR: 10/15
MEL1 BRI4 MEL3 CRO2 MEL1 CAN4 NQL3 MEL2 MEL1 CAN4 MAN3 CBY2 SYD1 BRI4 CAN3 MEL2
@MrDC
DC Chapman, League Lover
TIPPING:
Rabbitohs Storm Dragons Titans Warriors Cowboys Roosters
LW: 2/4 | SEASON: 63/111
FOOTYTAB:
SOU -10.5 MEL -8.5 STI +3.5 GLD +4.5
WAR -6.5 NQL -5.5 SYD -4.5
LW: 2/4 | SEASON: 42/111
Special Fried Rice: DRAGONS over Panthers (Has 4th Pick)
Season SFR: 11/15
NEW3 MAN2 CRO1 NEW4 SOU3 NEW2 MEL1 NEW4 BRI3 SOU2 SOU1 GLD4 PEN3 MEL2 SOU1 STI4
The NRL Injury List is updated regularly during each week of the season, making it an invaluable Fantasy and Tipping Tool alongside our Weekly NRL Previews once again.

Remember if you want game-specific Late Mail every week, then check out our Round Previews Every Wednesday and they are updated with all the very latest Late Mail on Friday.
Who will take Ben Barba's mantle as champion in the 2013 @NRLTweet Player of the Year Awards?

 The Prestigious Award is underway for a 4th season in 2013.
@NRLTweet Player of the Year Award Voters:
Warrick Nicolson @NRLTweet | Nigel Wilbow @parramatters
Justin Davies @dragonpunk12 | Greg Delaney @gregdelaney84
Matt Spillane @devonhead | Matt Trodden @trods2906
Matt Vickers @mercurialmattyv | Ben Hoese @gunnermcdagget
Adrian McMurray @adrmcm | Matthew Duncan @mrpeninsula
Maria Tsialis @mtsialis | Ben Jones @benwah87

Review all of the voting results from 2012 right here

Remember you can track all the votes each week after each match in 2013 via the Twitter hashtag #nrltweetpoty
By Warrick D. Nicolson