Wednesday 12 June 2013

#NRL 2013: Round 14 Tips Late Mail Predictions Preview #NRLLateMail #NRLDT #Supercoach

Plus The Postman's NRL Dream Team/NRL Super Coach Picks

2013 NRL Premiership

By W D Nicolson - June 12, 2013

Continue reading below for the Round 14 Tipping Preview.

Halfway home...

The second half of the 2013 NRL Regular Season officially begins this weekend, and looking at the ladder - we've got three quality sides, a decent side and a bunch of pretenders.

South Sydney and Melbourne are the standard, with the Roosters showing they can back up their early season surge. Manly have dropped away in recent weeks without Brett Stewart - but remain by far and away the fourth best side in the competition.

Then you've got the Gold Coast in 5th with 7 wins from 12 starts... that's not bad (and the same amount of wins as Manly it must be noted) and then a run of mediocre teams:

Cronulla, Canterbury and Canberra have 14 points (at least 6 wins) to round out the Top 8, followed by Newcastle and Penrith 12 points (at least 5 wins) and then Brisbane, St George Illawarra, Warriors and Tigers have 10 points (at least 4 wins).

Not that far behind - though they bring up the rear in 15th and 16th - North Queensland and Parramatta have 8 points (Cows have 4 wins, Eels have a league low 3).

Oh and if you are wondering why some teams are on the same amount of points but have less wins... that's the beauty of the BYE.

It's a little confusing for teams to get 2 points for doing nothing, but for some reason giving teams 2 points for a bye is apparently more logical than not giving them any points for doing nothing - per the official premiership ladder scoring system.

In short - 3 teams are playoff certainties, Manly are too good to miss out from here and the rest are playing for the other 4 openings in the Top 8.

Welcome to the 2nd half of 2013.

To the tips! Plus The Postman has gone nuts with Fantasy Advice this week...

For our analysis of Tuesday team selections for Round 14 - click here.

As far as Late Mail goes the rolling lockout for all you NRL Dream Team and NRL Super Coach nerds should have allowed you to make any last minute changes quite easily, but once again our Latest of Late Mail should help in any selections you make before the round begins.

The Postman has just some NRL Dream Team and NRL Super Coach gems for you this week - with all teams playing and a few Origin spots seemingly up for grabs..

@NRLTweet Player of the Year
Voting Allocation for Round 14 of the NRL is below.
ROUND 14, 2013
Wednesday Odds Courtesy of Sportingbet | NRL LADDER
Friday 7:45pm at Brookvale Oval
Tuesday Teams Analysed on NRL Injured List
@NRLTweet Player of the Year Award Voters:
Matt Spillane @devonhead Warrick Nicolson @NRLTweet |
Track live round votes via #NRLTweetPOTY
Things aren't going swimmingly for Manly right now... they've lost three of their last six and Daly Cherry-Evans had probably the most ineffective game I've seen him play in a long time against the Warriors - and they only lost by 2 points. Kieran Foran is playing well however and when both play well - Manly play well. It's not rocket science but those two in form keep Manly in every game. The Dogs counter with an up-and-down Josh Reynolds and the one dimensional Trent Hodkinson... biggest advantage is the depth of the Dogs' pack compared to Manly's right now but Manly dropped two games at Brookie to fellow contenders - Easts and Souths recently - they won't want to make it a hat-trick. Dogs capable but Manly is my pick with DCE the star - Manly by 7 points.
SEA EAGLES: Brett Stewart isn't likely to be back until after the Round 15 bye people. If there is a change to the squad it'll be on the bench... with the player coming in lucky to get more than 10 minutes of game time - if that.
LATE UPDATE? Are 1-17.
The Postman's DT/SC TIP: Daly Cherry-Evans is a beast at halfback in DT and a good but not great SC halfback... He's a must in DT and is a nice POD in SC... but then again he might be on the bench for QLD in Origin 2 or 3... but note: he will be on the bye for Origin 2/Round 15 anyway.
BULLDOGS: The Dogs are looking might fit right now... Mitch Brown's snoz is twice the size but he's fine. There's a chance Josh Jackson could start for Tony Williams. Tim Browne will remain 18th man.
LATE UPDATE? Jackson/Graham start for Williams/Kasiano.
The Postman's DT/SC TIP: You know you want to trade Tony Williams in... but you should know that he's a pick and stick or not at all option in Fantasy land. We prefer the not at all option in 2013.
If you have a DT/SC question grab The Postman on Twitter @NRLTweet and I'll answer there.
Friday 7:45pm at WIN Stadium
DRAGONS $1.53 v $2.55 COWBOYS
Tuesday Teams Analysed on NRL Injured List
@NRLTweet Player of the Year Award Voters:
| Maria Tsialis @mtsialis Matt Trodden @trods2906 |
Track live round votes via #NRLTweetPOTY
I do NOT want to pick the Dragons... I think they are a bad footy team with a few handy players... but do you really want to say you picked the Cowboys in their current state (on the road) and watch the Dragons beat them by plenty? The correct answer is no - you don't want to say that. So make a deal with the Cowboys - win this week, and we'll both agree to back you against the Sharks in Round 16. Easy. Thus - pick St George Illawarra by 4 points... but don't think they are good things, in fact they might be far from it. It is the Dragons with Fien/Stanley in the halves after all...
DRAGONS: Matt Cooper could be a late addition... and if he does - Leeson Ah Mau or Nathan Green would miss out. Jamie Soward will not play first grade.
LATE UPDATE? No changes.
The Postman's DT/SC TIP: Been reading people calling Nathan Fien a nice DT POD... do not do it. All you are relying on is kick metres and a few tackles... once Steve Price realises he can't win without a genuine playmaker alongside him - Fien's kicking game takes a hit. Plus you don't have the trades to throw away at this stage of the season...
COWBOYS: James Tamou sits out for a fortnight for off-field stupidity. Scott Bolton will start and as suggested on Tuesday on our NRL Injured List - Gavin Cooper will travel with the team. Johnathan Thurston will be given right up to kick-off to be fit, with Ray Thompson to shift to five-eighth if JT can't overcome his groin problem.
LATE UPDATE? Thorby in for Tamou, Sims starts.
The Postman's DT/SC TIP: No standouts here... so move along. And I know Robert Lui went nuts last weekend... don't rely on him repeating that anytime soon.
If you have a DT/SC question grab The Postman on Twitter @NRLTweet and I'll answer there.
Saturday 5:30pm at Canberra Stadium
RAIDERS $1.22 v $4.50 PANTHERS
Tuesday Teams Analysed on NRL Injured List
@NRLTweet Player of the Year Award Voters:
| Greg Delaney @gregdelaney84 Ben Hoese @gunnermcdagget |
Track live round votes via #NRLTweetPOTY
Canberra... I guess. The Panthers started fast against the Tigers before forgetting what it takes to win - playing the second 40 like the first, but the Raiders fell into that category as well against Brisbane. The Panthers led 18-4 at HT, Canberra 24-6 at HT... that extra Canberra try probably got them home as well. With Terry Campese running things Canberra can be good... question is - will they every attempt to play good clean attacking footy for a whole match? Do that and despite Penrith's best efforts - this could be 40-12 scoreline. But don't trust Canberra to do that... just pick the Raiders by 8 points.
RAIDERS: Edrick Lee has a broken arm - played 15 mins with it broken v Broncos - so Sandor Earl replaces him, expect Jack Wighton to move to left wing so Earl can play right. Everyone else expects to play.
LATE UPDATE? Not expecting any changes.
The Postman's DT/SC TIP: Terry Campese is going to start making money now... question is if his lack of running game scares you off. If he runs the ball - he is a DT/SC weapon. IF...
PANTHERS: The Panthers could have a reshuffle in the backline on gameday with Josh Mansour going to the wing. Clint Newton has struggled in recent weeks, so Ryan Simpkins might come in from 18th man. MOYLAN IS FREE! Matt will replace Wes Naiqama at fullback after Naiqama's ankle injury and the salary cap auditor clearing Moylan to play. Tim Grant (hand) may also try to get on the bus to Canberra, as playing may be his only way into the NSW team.
LATE UPDATE? Probably 1-17...
The Postman's DT/SC TIP: What to do with Matt Moylan? Right now you should be covered for Round 14 in terms of outside back depth... so wait another week or two before you cut him loose. He's FREE! Will play Canberra.
If you have a DT/SC question grab The Postman on Twitter @NRLTweet and I'll answer there.
Saturday 7:30pm at Sharks Stadium
SHARKS $1.17 v $5.35 EELS
Tuesday Teams Analysed on NRL Injured List
@NRLTweet Player of the Year Award Voters:
| Justin Davies @dragonpunk12 Ben Hoese @gunnermcdagget  |
Track live round votes via #NRLTweetPOTY
Think Paul Gallen won't have a big one here? Didn't think so... Parra need Chris Sandow to have one of those days he hasn't had since he started playing in the NRL - such is the task at hand. I mean it is not like the Sharks are coming off a belting on the road or anything... Mind you, not convinced the Sharks win by 30 or anything, but it'll be more embarrassing getting dusted by a point at home by Parra than going to Melbourne and getting beat by 32 points. Sharks by 18 points.
SHARKS: Paul Gallen comes back in, so Sam Tagataese will miss out. The team did get spanked last start and played Sunday night - so there's a good chance coach Shane Flanagan just picked the same team and will make his changes later this week. It's not like he has to tell anyone...
LATE UPDATE? Bryce Gibbs will play NSW Cup. Gordon is out, Stapleton is the new fullback. Ross also misses out, with Tagataese preferred.
The Postman's DT/SC TIP: Paul Gallen after this weekend will be cheap next time he plays... downside is that'll be Round 16. So wait... let his big BE this week bring him down a little more... he needs 154 in SC and 93 in DT... even if he reaches either - he's still a bargain now anyway. But wait til Round 16.
EELS: Jacob Loko was a naughty boy by not turning up to training so he's playing NSW Cup this week. Ben Roberts needs to either start or not play first grade... so don't be surprised if Joseph Paulo moves to the pack and Roberts does start.
LATE UPDATE? Are 1-17.
The Postman's DT/SC TIP: Keep Jarryd Hayne if you have him - he's in your best 17 after Origin and it's not worth the two trades to send him packing now. If you don't have him - he's a tasty 270k in SC and 300k in DT with gettable BE's the week he returns. PS - Jake Mullaney will score well at FB (thanks to tackle breaks) but he is too expensive because of his scores last year to bring in as a temporary option.
If you have a DT/SC question grab The Postman on Twitter @NRLTweet and I'll answer there.
Sunday 2:00pm at Cairns Stadium
RABBITOHS $1.34 v $3.40 TITANS
Tuesday Teams Analysed on NRL Injured List
@NRLTweet Player of the Year Award Voters:
Matt Vickers @mercurialmattyv Adrian McMurray @adrmcm |
Track live round votes via #NRLTweetPOTY
South Sydney had a nice break... as did Greg Inglis. The Titans had a break as well - some good planning in the schedule gave both these sides the bye in Round 13 before they both fly to Cairns for this game. The Gold Coast pack remains as good as any on paper and you have to like how they play their footy from time to time - stark contrast to recent years of boring wait for the kick on the last game plans - but you are a brave tipster indeed if you pick them against the Bunnies. Souths by 12 points.
RABBITOHS: The Rabbitohs probably don't take 20 players north, with coach Michael Maguire needed to trim a 7 man bench. Luke Keary, Josh Starling and Justin Hunt look the most under threat but Maguire is normally pretty ruthless if he thinks more established players aren't doing the job.
LATE UPDATE? Are 1-17.
The Postman's DT/SC TIP: Do you keep George Burgess? With Tackle Breaks worth 3 in DT - you almost have to (even though his tackle count isn't going to pass 30 max), and the value of big attacking plays in SC (tries/line breaks) make him SC gold... post Origin reconsider it but only if you are trading him to Woods, Fifita or Merrin.
TITANS: Brad Takairangi will play after a head knock two weeks ago, 18th man Ben Ridge is cover for a few forwards who have had niggles in recent weeks. Luke Bailey should play despite a hip injury.
LATE UPDATE? Ridge comes in for Minichiello (hamstring).
The Postman's DT/SC TIP: Mark Minichiello and William Zillman both have negative BEs this week in SC... Zillman's line breaking ability keeps him in the SC conversation but neither can in your final 17-20 options. So unless you have lots of trades left don't do it.
If you have a DT/SC question grab The Postman on Twitter @NRLTweet and I'll answer there.
Sunday 3:00pm at AAMI Park
STORM $1.18 v $5.15 KNIGHTS
Tuesday Teams Analysed on NRL Injured List
@NRLTweet Player of the Year Award Voters:
| Adrian McMurray @adrmcm Matt Spillane @devonhead |
Track live round votes via #NRLTweetPOTY
Melbourne if the Big 3 play... if word comes out one or two of them won't - I'll write an actual preview. Storm by 20 points.
STORM: Will this be the week Craig Bellamy gives one of his stars a pre-Origin break? Don't rule it out. Bellamy isn't a fool - he knows getting his best players through this rep period as fresh as possible matters when we get to the pointy end of the season rather than a meaningless Round 14 clash with Newcastle.
LATE UPDATE? Cronk might get getting a rest... with Finch coming in.
The Postman's DT/SC TIP: Gareth Widdop woke up last week and the Storm don't have their next bye til after Origin 3... but you still can't pick him. And the other alternative - Ryan Hinchcliffe should (I hope rather because Ennis is NOT the answer) get the call if Farah is out of Origin 2... if you haven't traded Tohu Harris yet - I still think you need to. Ideally for a player with a good bye situation.
KNIGHTS: Don't rule out Akuila Uate being a late inclusion here... oh and a guy called Craig Gower. Uate would replace Kevin Naiqama, while Adam Clydsdale would miss out if Gower plays. Neville Costigan will replace David Fa'alogo (knee) on the bench. While Adam Cuthbertson and Danny Buderus have - along with Uate - trained with the team on Thursday.
LATE UPDATE? Uate, Gower and Cuthbertson into squad, Fa'alogo, Costigan and Clydsdale miss out.
The Postman's DT/SC TIP: Jarrod Mullen might not stay this cheap in DT for a while - plus he dominates kick metres for the Knights. Showing the value of big attacking stats in SC however - his $196,700 SC value is 150k less than his DT value. Yes to DT if you want a POD half, no to SC.
If you have a DT/SC question grab The Postman on Twitter @NRLTweet and I'll answer there.
Sunday 6:30pm at Allianz Stadium
Tuesday Teams Analysed on NRL Injured List
@NRLTweet Player of the Year Award Voters:
| Greg Delaney @gregdelaney84 Matt Vickers @mercurialmattyv |
Track live round votes via #NRLTweetPOTY
Good luck to the Warriors - they've won 3 in a row... but there's no way I'm tipping them against the Roosters at the SFS. Sydney coach Trent Robinson will be ropeable with his team's application against the Eels (they won by 14 points and scored 38 - yet sucked) and this week will be all about defence and not letting the Warriors play second phase footy... The Warriors might have a moment or two - but I'm sticking with Easts by 16 points.
ROOSTERS: Boyd Cordner challenged a 1 week ban on Wednesday night and won. So the Roosters are probably 1-17 with Sam Moa is probably another week away.
The Postman's DT/SC TIP: Nothing catches the eye... bar Isaac Liu who went up big time after his 3rd game last. Problem is - he loses his spot once Sam Moa comes back so you needed him in your team a long time ago to get any value.
WARRIORS: The big bench is either smart cover come Sunday night - or a smokescreen for the return of a few injured players like Todd Lowrie. Good thing about the Warriors is if they smokescreen Tuesday, they clear things up by the end of the week. Kevin Locke and Russell Packer should be back after missing last weekend.
LATE UPDATE? Locke is out, so Fisiiahi is your fullback and Laumape is your winger. Packer flies to Sydney... did Lowrie?
The Postman's DT/SC TIP: Pop Quiz: Name the highest PPG Warrior in SC?
Despite a late surge it isn't Feleti Mateo... or Shaun Johnson. It's Thunder Thighs Konrad Hurrell... but given his ability to follow a blinder with a shocker... you can't take the risk right now.
If you have a DT/SC question grab The Postman on Twitter @NRLTweet and I'll answer there.
Monday 7:00pm at Suncorp Stadium
BRONCOS $1.28 v $3.85 TIGERS
Tuesday Teams Analysed on NRL Injured List
@NRLTweet Player of the Year Award Voters:
| Warrick Nicolson @NRLTweet Matthew Duncan @mrpeninsula |
Track live round votes via #NRLTweetPOTY
Give the Tigers credit - they fought back and deserved to beat Penrith last week. Don't give the Broncos any credit for their 2nd half against Canberra... they were well beaten at halftime (but then again - weren't the Tigers?). Benji Marshall represents the Tigers main hope at an upset... while Brisbane should get Ben Hannant back which is a big inclusion in terms of the balance of each forward pack.  Wouldn't want to be picking Brisbane if this was in Sydney, but back in Brisbane with another 7 day break and a group of QLD players desperately seeking that winning feeling going into Origin 2... that's the factor I'll follow here. Broncos by 4 points... maybe.
BRONCOS: Do we see changes after another loss? Problem for the Broncos is they are only really missing David Stagg up front, if Ben Hannant plays as expected. There could also be a change on the wing with Jordan Kahu not looking 100% against Canberra.
LATE UPDATE? Kahu out, Maranta in. Hannant a certain starter.
The Postman's DT/SC TIP: Corey Parker is a DT/SC Gun... shame on you for ever doubting him. Something clicked after Anthony Griffin lost David Stagg to injury... CP13 is an 80 minute machine. Should be kicking as well...
TIGERS: Blake Ayshford expects to return, and David Nofoaluma hopes to overcome an ankle injury to play as well. Don't rule out James Tedesco replacing Sean Meaney at fullback either. Robbie Farah won't be back early, he'll be saved for Origin 2 if he's able.
LATE UPDATE? Nofoaluma is fit. Tedesco and Fulton play, Meaney and Farlow miss out. Farah will NOT play.
The Postman's DT/SC TIP: The kid you wanted (or had and thought you were a genius) Aaron Woods might be playing Origin 2... has the bye for Origin 3... geeeesh. Upside is when he plays he is SC royalty and a DT gun... just you won't have him for at least one of the two Origins that are left... if not both.
If you have a DT/SC question grab The Postman on Twitter @NRLTweet and I'll answer there.
What are your tips for Round 14? 
Are you taking any advice from our Awesome Foursome panel this year?
Let us know by commenting below or replying on Twitter.
SPECIAL FRIED RICE involves each tipster taking a 'certainty' in a set order, with the tipster with the highest score at the end of the year literally winning a mountain of Special Fried Rice. The SFR Order rotates every week and is a fun way to put your rice where your mouth is.
ROUND 14 SELECTIONS | The Awesome Foursome
Warrick D. Nicolson, The NRL Tweet
Sea Eagles Dragons Raiders Sharks Rabbitohs Storm Roosters Broncos
LW: 4/7 | SEASON: 62/99
MAN -2.5 NQL +4.5 PEN +8.5 CRO -10.5
SOU -8.5 MEL -12.5 SYD -8.5 WTG +8.5
LW: 5/7 | SEASON: 54/99
Special Fried Rice: SHARKS over Eels (Has 3rd Pick)
Season SFR: 9.5/13
Sea Eagles Cowboys Panthers Eels Rabbitohs Storm Roosters Broncos
LW: 3/7 | SEASON: 53/99
MAN -2.5 NQL +4.5 PEN +8.5 PAR +10.5
SOU -8.5 MEL -12.5 WAR +8.5 BRI -8.5
LW: 3/7 | SEASON: 46/99
Special Fried Rice: RABBITOHS over Titans (Has 1st Pick)
Season SFR: 8/13 
Jake Hauritz, Channel 9 Darwin
Sea Eagles Cowboys Raiders Sharks Rabbitohs Storm Roosters Broncos
LW: 5/7 | SEASON: 66/99
MAN -2.5 NQL +4.5 PEN +8.5 PAR +10.5
SOU -8.5 MEL -12.5 SYD -8.5 BRI -8.5
LW: 3/7 | SEASON: 48/99
Special Fried Rice: BRONCOS over Tigers (Has 4th Pick)
Season SFR: 9/13
DC Chapman, League Lover
Bulldogs Dragons Raiders Sharks Rabbitohs Storm Roosters Tigers
LW: 4/7 | SEASON: 55/99
CBY +2.5 STI -4.5 PEN +8.5 PAR +10.5
SOU -8.5 MEL -12.5 SYD -8.5 WTG +8.5
LW: 4/7 | SEASON: 39/99
Special Fried Rice: STORM over Knights (Has 2nd Pick)
Season SFR: 9/13
The NRL Injury List is updated regularly during each week of the season, making it an invaluable Fantasy and Tipping Tool alongside our Weekly NRL Previews once again.

Remember if you want game-specific Late Mail every week, then check out our Round Previews Every Wednesday and they are updated with all the very latest Late Mail on Friday.

If we are missing any players on this list - please comment below, reply on Twitter or email this address.
Who will take Ben Barba's mantle as champion in the 2013 @NRLTweet Player of the Year Awards?

The Prestigious Award is underway for a 4th season in 2013.
@NRLTweet Player of the Year Award Voters:
Warrick Nicolson @NRLTweet | Nigel Wilbow @parramatters
Justin Davies @dragonpunk12 | Greg Delaney @gregdelaney84
Matt Spillane @devonhead | Matt Trodden @trods2906
Matt Vickers @mercurialmattyv | Ben Hoese @gunnermcdagget
Adrian McMurray @adrmcm | Matthew Duncan @mrpeninsula
Maria Tsialis @mtsialis | Ben Jones @benwah87

Review all of the voting results from 2012 right here

Remember you can track all the votes each week after each match in 2013 via the Twitter hashtag #nrltweetpoty