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Wednesday, 8 May 2013

NRL 2013: Round 9 Tips Late Mail Predictions Preview | #NRLLateMail #NRLDT #Supercoach

ROUND 9 TIPS and LATE MAIL
Plus The Postman's NRL Dream Team/NRL Super Coach Picks

2013 NRL Premiership

By W D Nicolson - May 8, 2013


EXTRA LATEST OF LATE MAIL ADDED THROUGHOUT ROUND - Updated Sunday
ALL EXPERT PICKS AND SPECIAL FRIED RICE ADDED AS RECEIVED
Also make sure you check out the Predicted NSW Game 1 Team we believe coach Laurie Daley is set to announce for the June 5 clash with Queensland at ANZ Stadium.
Plus Mal Meninga's Queensland Team has also been predicted... easy as that may be.
And remember they both have massive DT/SC implications.
Continue reading below for the Round 9 Tipping Preview.
Geeesh aren't NSW in a spot of trouble?

Well not really, it's not like things can get much worse when you haven't won an Origin series since 2005...

The news today surrounding the injuries to Brett Stewart and Brett Morris may actually be a blessing in disguise for the Blues... yep, I just said that.

Now I don't wish injury on anyone, but if Stewart (back 4-6 weeks) and Morris (knee 2-4 weeks) are indeed out of contention for State of Origin 1 on June 5... NSW might actually be able to field a better side.

And by better side - I mean a side that can put it to Queensland just that little bit more come the first Wednesday in June at ANZ Stadium.

Stewart has looked the part at Origin level, but his form in 2013 has been so-so... he hasn't played badly, but he hasn't done much for Manly (not that he's needed to as they are 6-2 after 8 Rounds) in terms of screaming 'hey Laurie Daley - you HAVE to pick me for Game 1'. That doesn't mean Daley wasn't about to pick Stewart - he was - but a good proportion of NSW fans want Jarryd Hayne in the #1 jersey come Game 1... and now through Stewart's back luck (and back) it might happen.

The Morris injury has opened up even more debate on who might take the vacant wing spots... does Nathan Merritt's avalanche of tries finally nab him his Origin debut or will Akuila Uate's explosiveness get him another run on the flank?

I think if Morris doesn't play - both will have the next fortnight to impress Daley. With the most impressive getting the gig.

But what about Michael Gordon you ask?

Well I think he's IN given Daley's talk up til now, especially with Stewart practically ruled out.

He was my 18th man when predicting NSW's Game 1 team over a week ago here on www.wdnicolson.com (the QLD Team is here) - and his value at fullback, winger and centre makes him a standout pick. Plus he's played Origin before and was very good in his only game in the 3rd game of 2010.

So to wrap up: Hayne to fullback, Gordon on one wing (though he and Hayne might swap during the game) and if Morris is out - it's down to Merritt v Uate.

If we go back to my earlier point - doesn't Hayne-Gordon-Jennings-Morris-Merritt/Uate give you just a little bit more confidence in matching QLD's outside men than Stewart-Hayne-Jennings-Morris-Morris?

Your thoughts?

PS - Before you go down to the Tips and Late Mail people - we have news on a temporary (and I stress temporary) NOT The Footy Show return here...

For our analysis of Tuesday team selections for Round 9 - click here.
The Postman will also have one or two NRL Dream Team and NRL Super Coach picks for you to consider entering Round 9. You got 16 last week - so be grateful with a few later on this week!

@NRLTweet Player of the Year - Round 8 Results here
Voting Allocation for Round 9 of the NRL is below.

As far as Late Mail goes the rolling lockout for all you NRL Dream Team and NRL Super Coach nerds should have allowed you to make any last minute changes quite easily, but once again our Latest of Late Mail should help in any selections you make before the round begins.

NRL TIPPING PREVIEW + LATE MAIL
ROUND 9, 2013
Wednesday Odds Courtesy of Sportingbet | NRL LADDER
Friday 7:45pm at ANZ Stadium
RABBITOHS $1.30 v $3.50 COWBOYS
FOOTYTAB: NQL +8.5
Tuesday Teams Analysed on NRL Injured List
@NRLTweet Player of the Year Award Voters:
Ben Hoese @gunnermcdagget Warrick Nicolson @NRLTweet |
Track live round votes via #NRLTweetPOTY
@NRLTweet's PREDICTION:
This is a great opportunity for the Cowboys to make a statement... It's just a shame for North Queensland that Souths made theirs in Round 7. The Manly-Souths game was a cracker and the Rabbitohs backed it up by easily overrunning the Broncos in Brisbane last Friday. The Cowboys on the other hand might have won back to back games but they weren't particularly good against Canberra and let's face it - relying on a soft late try to beat the Eels isn't cause for celebration. The Cowboys best chance is behind Matt Scott and James Tamou marching through the middle... but the Rabbitohs are slightly well stocked up front... so go with the Bunnies right now, giving due deference to the ability the Cowboys do have, and still pick Souths by 10 points.
RABBITOHS:
Jeff Lima will probably have to bide his time after Jason Clark's strong stint off the bench last week. Michael Maguire seems to like Ben Lowe - so Lima needs Clark or Nathan Peats to play themselves off the bench to get a run now it seems.
LATE UPDATE? Souths are probably 1-17 unless Lima gets a late reprieve. ARE 1-17.
The Postman's DT/SC TIP: John Sutton is DT gold right now... and for the foreseeable future and he won't play Origin 1.
COWBOYS:
Scott Moore could usurp Ray Thompson as the bench utility, while Scott Bolton puts pressure on Joel Riethmuller and Ashton Sims for a bench spot. Still no Jason Taumalolo... staggeringly.
LATE UPDATE? Still no firm word on changes - but with a 6:45pm team naming coming before the lockout - you have time to make changes yourself. Morgan and Riethmuller OUT, Moore and Bolton IN. Thompson to 7.
The Postman's DT/SC TIP: Scott Moore owners got a nice surprise on Tuesday... I reckon those who stuck with him will get a price increase as a reward this weekend.
If you have a DT/SC question grab The Postman on Twitter @NRLTweet and I'll answer there.
Friday 7:45pm at Allianz Stadium
TIGERS $2.50 v $1.53 SHARKS
FOOTYTABWTG +4.5
Tuesday Teams Analysed on NRL Injured List
@NRLTweet Player of the Year Award Voters:
Ben Jones @benwah87 Matt Spillane @devonhead |
Track live round votes via #NRLTweetPOTY
@NRLTweet's PREDICTION:
I really want to pick the Tigers here... Paul Gallen's absence is a worry if you're backing the Sharks, but Todd Carney's form isn't. The incumbent NSW five-eighth still needs a few standout performances to keep James Maloney at bay for the Blues - and given how meekly the Tigers capitulated to the Bulldogs last week - Carney might feast on the pussy-cats at the SFS. BUT... and it's a big but - Benji Marshall is a very handy bounce back player and Robbie Farah is a genius... so, I'll tip the Sharks by 2 points because their forward pack is still pretty good without Gallen... but I can see this selection possibly changing later in the week.
TIGERS:
More changes mid-week but the Tigers are about as strong as they can hope to be right now... watch this space if there's any more swaps later on.
LATE UPDATE? Would not expect to see any changes. ARE 1-17.
The Postman's DT/SC TIP: Benji Marshall will be cheap as chips in a week or two... and he's pretty cheap already.
SHARKS:
Paul Gallen is next to no chance... but the Tigers have already gone on record saying they expect him to play... Sosaia Feki will keep his spot on the wing, while Andrew Fifita may remain on the bench after his monumental numbers last week.
LATE UPDATE? Check Gallen's status at about 6:45pm Friday night (NOT PLAYING). And there's sneaky chat that Bryce Gibbs might be back... don't believe it til you see it. IF you see it. We didn't see either - Fifita to bench, Tagataese starts.
The Postman's DT/SC TIP: Make sure if you have Gallen you check his status before confirming that you're trading him out... bad Break-Even and all.
If you have a DT/SC question grab The Postman on Twitter @NRLTweet and I'll answer there.
Saturday 7:30pm at Westpac Stadium (Wellington - NZ Time)
WARRIORS $2.35 v $1.60 BULLDOGS
FOOTYTABWAR +2.5
Tuesday Teams Analysed on NRL Injured List
@NRLTweet Player of the Year Award Voters:
Justin Davies @dragonpunk12 Adrian McMurray @adrmcm |
Track live round votes via #NRLTweetPOTY
@NRLTweet's PREDICTION:
I'll put my hand up - I was in Melbourne all last weekend and missed the Warriors-Titans, but I did catch the Dogs-Tigers... so I ask you - the readers - who was more impressive? I'm leaning Bulldogs - even in New Zealand (it is in Wellington, not Auckland) but that's mainly because I'm not sure the Warriors are actually any good. Yes the Dogs aren't 'back' yet, but 40 points was the key factor from their win over the Tigers... and, almost encouragingly, Ben Barba didn't score a point. Barba will find his feet sooner rather than later, and I'm not confident enough in the Warriors to tip them yet... Bulldogs by 12 points.
WARRIORS:
Konrad Hurrell is back, Jerome Ropati is injured again. Glen Fisiiahi might finally play after being named, now that Kevin Locke is out a week or two with a bad back. The rest of the team should be as named.
LATE UPDATE?
The Postman's DT/SC TIP: Leave Fisiiahi and Hurrell alone... they need a bunch of big games to even remotely enter your mind given their flighty scores.
BULLDOGS:
The Dogs got their two big units back last week - they'll suit up again against the Warriors. Martin Taupau and Tim Browne will likely travel as cover to Wellington.
LATE UPDATE?
The Postman's DT/SC TIP: Ben Barba... barely broke a sweat his first run on my DT last Friday - I'm 100% committed to him... and will get the rewards.
If you have a DT/SC question grab The Postman on Twitter @NRLTweet and I'll answer there.
Saturday 7:30pm at Parramatta Stadium
EELS $2.60 v $1.50 BRONCOS
FOOTYTABPAR +4.5
Tuesday Teams Analysed on NRL Injured List
@NRLTweet Player of the Year Award Voters:
Matthew Duncan @mrpeninsula Maria Tsialis @mtsialis |
Track live round votes via #NRLTweetPOTY
@NRLTweet's PREDICTION:
Parramatta will win their 3rd game of the season... but I refuse to tip them until they do, and given I'm tipping the Broncos to be too strong, it won't be this week. Jarryd Hayne is coming into a bit of form right now but with Justin Hodges back for the Broncos - strikepower out wide leans to the Broncos. As I've been saying all year - Hayne AND Sandow have to fire simultaneously for the Eels to be in a position to win... but I'll back the Broncos and their backrow threats to win by 7 points in this one.
EELS:
The Eels spent the middle of the week at Kiama... so does this mean changes? If you wanted to explore new combinations training out of town isn't a bad idea... more specifics if/when it comes in.
LATE UPDATE? Tipping changes on the final bench, with Allgood and Pritchard under most pressure. Morgan's hammy no good - he's out and Pewhairangi comes in.
The Postman's DT/SC TIP: I picked up Jarryd Hayne a week or two ago in DT - might wait one more in SC... he needs to be in your squad eventually.
BRONCOS:
Justin Hodges will play, while Josh McGuire probably comes in on the bench but David Stagg might have to wait a week or two.
LATE UPDATE? Hodges, Stagg and McGuire are certainties, Anderson and Wallace are set to miss out.
The Postman's DT/SC TIP: Jordan Kahu is the 2 game rookie many think might be a better option than Matt Moylan - not true. Stick with the Penrith fullback.
If you have a DT/SC question grab The Postman on Twitter @NRLTweet and I'll answer there.
Sunday 2:00pm at Canberra Stadium
RAIDERS $1.57 v $2.40 KNIGHTS
FOOTYTABNEW +3.5
Tuesday Teams Analysed on NRL Injured List
@NRLTweet Player of the Year Award Voters:
Greg Delaney @gregdelaney84 Ben Jones @benwah87 |
Track live round votes via #NRLTweetPOTY
@NRLTweet's PREDICTION:
Canberra just went to Melbourne and beat the undefeated Storm... while Newcastle lost at home to the Sharks (who in turn lost Paul Gallen very early). That equates to a Raiders win right? Not so fast marmaduke... the Raiders are masters of losing games they should win after an impressive victory, while the Knights under Wayne Bennett have shown a tendency to respond well to a bad loss. Translation? Well I'll pick Canberra by 6 points but only because Terry Campese is fit and Jarrod Mullen isn't. Last time these two played - the Knights did it easily in the second half... food for thought.
RAIDERS:
With a Sunday game - Josh Papalii and Joel Thompson are set to be in contention, with Papalii the man most likely to replace Joe Picker in a straight swap. Anthony Milford will likely beat Shaun Berrigan for the utility spot.
LATE UPDATE? Is there a rumour Papalii is visiting family in Canberra on Sunday at about 2pm? Apparently so - so he'll play. Milford looks set to hold his spot on the bench ahead of Berrigan.
The Postman's DT/SC TIP: Once Terry Campese starts running the ball he should enter your calculations - but not before.
KNIGHTS:
Jarrod Mullen misses, meaning Kurt Giidley is the five-eighth - end of story. Matt Hilder could start for Travis Waddell and spend a lot of time at dummy half. Neville Costigan probably replaces Korbin Sims in the 17.
LATE UPDATE? Mullen ran and kicked with his team on Thursday... but the Knights announced he will not play, rookie hooker Adam Clydsdale replaces either Matt Hilder or Korbin Sims, while Neville Costigan drops off bench.
The Postman's DT/SC TIP: I jumped on the Aku Uate express last week... pity he decided to stay at the station... but have faith - he's going to explode over Origin - for the Knights.
If you have a DT/SC question grab The Postman on Twitter @NRLTweet and I'll answer there.
Sunday 3:00pm at Skilled Park
TITANS $1.54 v $2.45 DRAGONS
FOOTYTABSTI +3.5
Tuesday Teams Analysed on NRL Injured List
@NRLTweet Player of the Year Award Voters:
Matt Trodden @trods2906 Matt Vickers @mercurialmattyv |
Track live round votes via #NRLTweetPOTY
@NRLTweet's PREDICTION:
Titans or Dragons? Do I really have to choose? Neither team has much going for them in terms of a genuine premiership challenge but the nature of the NRL means you're a Top 8 contender until about Round 25. The fitness of Albert Kelly is a factor here - he copped a head knock apparently against the Warriors, and when he's fit and firing alongside Aidan Sezer - the Titans are a good offensive team. The Dragons on the other hand put up a decent fight against Manly (after sporting the Sea Eagles an 18-0 lead) but I'm yet to be convinced they are a team that can score 3 or more tries a week... so give me the Titans by 8 points please.
TITANS:
Albert Kelly's head knock shouldn't keep him out... but the Titans are normally fairly open if a player is set to withdraw so keep an ear out. Ashley Harrison looks likely to play despite not being named, while Kevin Gordon should finally return from a hammy strain and David Mead wouldn't have been named if his jaw wasn't ready to go.
LATE UPDATE? Harrison looks set to play having trained late in the week, as does Kelly. Sounds like Harrison is a certainty and Kelly very likely.
The Postman's DT/SC TIP: Personally I want to turn Albert Kelly into DCE, Sutton or Hayne... but has he really done a bad job for you up til now?
DRAGONS:
Brett Morris is OUT, so Nathan Green might hold his spot even if Matt Cooper is right to go. Adam Quinlan or Evander Cummins are two names the Red V faithful would love to see get a run... then again Steve Price might just move Tyson Frizell to the centres if Cooper is out and move Green to the wing.
LATE UPDATE? As we said on Wednesday - Quinlan looks like the man who will get the call for Morris... that was until Steve 'Numbers' Price refused to rule new signing Josh Dugan out of contention... but he won't play. While Cameron King might find a spot on the bench after training this week.
The Postman's DT/SC TIP: Don't risk trading in Quinlan just yet... give him at least a week.
If you have a DT/SC question grab The Postman on Twitter @NRLTweet and I'll answer there.
Sunday 6:30pm at Centrebet Stadium
PANTHERS $5.50 v $1.15 STORM
FOOTYTABPEN +12.5
Tuesday Teams Analysed on NRL Injured List
@NRLTweet Player of the Year Award Voters:
Adrian McMurray @adrmcm Matt Trodden @trods2906 |
Track live round votes via #NRLTweetPOTY
@NRLTweet's PREDICTION:
Melbourne by that many it's ridiculous... but no, picking Melbourne by 24 points is not ridiculous. They just got a wake up call from Canberra at home and the Panthers can't score points against good defensive teams... so PICK MELBOURNE BY AS MANY AS YOU LIKE!
PANTHERS:
Josh Mansour and Wes Naiqama are probably another couple of weeks away, but James Roberts makes his return from an ankle injury in NSW Cup so Penrith have troops on their way back. Tom Humble has an ankle injury, so Isaac John gets his chance... finally.
LATE UPDATE? None yet.
The Postman's DT/SC TIP: Sign Matt Moylan - get the cash and worry about 'bad byes' later.
STORM:
Craig Bellamy loves a few changes to wake up his underperformers... so check back later in the week once we get a better idea of what changes he is likely to make.
LATE UPDATE? Craig Bellamy seems like the kind of coach who would think playing Dayne Weston against the team he was a member of about 5 days ago is a good idea... which it is.
The Postman's DT/SC TIP: If you stuck with Billy Slater in SC (he's only been half decent in DT recently) then stick with him a little longer... he's going great right now.
If you have a DT/SC question grab The Postman on Twitter @NRLTweet and I'll answer there.
Monday 7:00pm at Brookvale Oval
SEA EAGLES $1.85 v $1.95 ROOSTERS
FOOTYTABSYD +2.5
Tuesday Teams Analysed on NRL Injured List
@NRLTweet Player of the Year Award Voters:
| Warrick Nicolson @NRLTweet Matt Spillane @devonhead |
Track live round votes via #NRLTweetPOTY
@NRLTweet's PREDICTION:
Cracking match up - and one where I think the home team will be fired up to make sure only one premiership contender has taken two points from Brookvale this year. That team was Souths two weeks ago and as good as the Roosters have been this year - this is a great test for them. Just like Souths were in Round 1... and the Roosters were well beaten that night. I don't see Manly winning by a large margin but this is going to be a good indication of where the Roosters really are as a premiership contender... Manly by 4 points, yes even without Brett Stewart.
SEA EAGLES:
Brett Stewart is not playing, so Geoff Toovey will probably move Jorge Taufua to fullback (like he did in the second half against the Dragons) and bring Peta Hiku onto the wing ahead of Esi Tonga (who was pedestrian Monday). Jason King is probably another week away, while Jamie Buhrer probably needed the whole week between games to recover from a knee problem.
LATE UPDATE? Buhrer will play.
The Postman's DT/SC TIP: Jorge Taufua at fullback... am I the only one that thinks his cheap finishing tries might dry up there?
ROOSTERS:
Isaac Liu played for Newtown last weekend, so he's a good chance to be 18th man here as cover for Frank-Paul Nuuausala who returns from a knee injury  Sam Moa is out for a month or so with a couple of leg issues, so don't expect him to be a late addition...
LATE UPDATE? FPN may yet be a game time decision... making Liu a decent chance.
The Postman's DT/SC TIP: SBW keeps delivering... while stick with James Maloney until you have to face him playing for NSW.
If you have a DT/SC question grab The Postman on Twitter @NRLTweet and I'll answer there.
 What are your tips for Round 9? 
Are you taking any advice from our Awesome Foursome panel this year?
Let us know by commenting below or replying on Twitter.
@NRLTWEET's 2013 TIPPING RECORD 
TIPPING TOTAL AFTER 8 ROUNDS - 42/64 @ 65.6%
FOOTYTAB TOTAL AFTER 8 ROUNDS - 36/64 @ 56.3%
SPECIAL FRIED RICE involves each tipster taking a 'certainty' in a set order, with the tipster with the highest score at the end of the year literally winning a mountain of Special Fried Rice. The SFR Order rotates every week and is a fun way to put your rice where your mouth is.
ROUND 9 SELECTIONS | The Awesome Foursome
@NRLTweet
Warrick D. Nicolson, The NRL Tweet
TIPPING:
Rabbitohs Sharks Bulldogs Broncos Raiders Titans Storm Sea Eagles
LW: 5/8 | SEASON: 42/64
FOOTYTAB:
SOU -8.5 WTG +4.5 CBY -2.5 BRI -4.5
CAN -3.5 GLD -3.5 MEL -12.5 MAN -2.5
LW: 6/8 | SEASON: 36/64
Special Fried Rice: RABBITOHS over Cowboys (Has 4th Pick)
Season SFR: 6/8
CAN4 CBY3 SOU2 MEL1 CRO4 MAN3 SYD2 SYD1 SOU4
TIPPING:
Cowboys Sharks Warriors Broncos Knights Dragons Storm Sea Eagles
LW: 5/8 | SEASON: 40/64
FOOTYTAB:
NQL +8.5 CRO -4.5 WAR +2.5 BRI -4.5
NEW +3.5 STI +3.5 MEL -12.5 MAN -2.5
LW: 1/8 | SEASON: 31/64
Special Fried Rice: DRAGONS over Titans (Has 2nd Pick)
Season SFR: 6/8 
SOU2 SOU1 MAN4 PAR3 NQL2 MEL1 BRI4 WAR3 STI2

@Horry37
Jake Hauritz, Channel 9 Darwin
TIPPING:
Rabbitohs Sharks Bulldogs Broncos Raiders Titans Storm Roosters
LW: 5/8 | SEASON: 45/64
FOOTYTAB:
SOU -8.5 CRO -4.5 CBY -2.5 BRI -4.5
CAN -3.5 GLD -3.5 MEL -12.5 SYD +2.5
LW: 4/8 | SEASON: 31/64
Special Fried Rice: STORM over Panthers (Has 1st Pick)
Season SFR: 6/8
MEL1 BRI4 MEL3 CRO2 MEL1 CAN4 NQL3 MEL2 MEL1

@mrDC
DC Chapman, League Lover
TIPPING:
Rabbitohs Sharks Bulldogs Broncos Knights Dragons Storm Roosters
LW: 5/8 | SEASON: 34/64
FOOTYTAB:
NQL +8.5 CRO -4.5 CBY -2.5 BRI -4.5
NEW +3.5 STI +3.5 MEL -12.5 SYD +2.5
LW: 3/8 | SEASON: 20/64
Special Fried Rice: BRONCOS over Eels (Has 3rd Pick)
Season SFR: 7/8
NEW3 MAN2 CRO1 NEW4 SOU3 NEW2 MEL1 NEW4 BRI3


The NRL Injury List is updated regularly during each week of the season, making it an invaluable Fantasy and Tipping Tool alongside our Weekly NRL Previews once again.

Remember if you want game-specific Late Mail every week, then check out our Round Previews Every Wednesday and they are updated with all the very latest Late Mail on Friday.

If we are missing any players on this list - please comment below, reply on Twitter or email this address.
Who will take Ben Barba's mantle as champion in the 2013 @NRLTweet Player of the Year Awards?

The Prestigious Award returns for a 4th season in 2013.


@NRLTweet Player of the Year Award Voters:
Warrick Nicolson @NRLTweet | Nigel Wilbow @parramatters
Justin Davies @dragonpunk12 | Greg Delaney @gregdelaney84
Matt Spillane @devonhead | Matt Trodden @trods2906
Matt Vickers @mercurialmattyv | Ben Hoese @gunnermcdagget
Adrian McMurray @adrmcm | Matthew Duncan @mrpeninsula
Maria Tsialis @mtsialis | Ben Jones @benwah87

Review all of the voting results from 2012 right here

Remember you can track all the votes each week after each match in 2013 via the Twitter hashtag #nrltweetpoty

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