Thursday 23 May 2013

#NRL 2013: Round 11 Tips Late Mail Predictions Preview #NRLLateMail #NRLDT #Supercoach

Plus The Postman's NRL Dream Team/NRL Super Coach Picks

2013 NRL Premiership

By W D Nicolson - May 22, 2013


The almost certain NSW and QLD Game 1 Teams are here
Read about why NSW can't keep overloading with backrowers in Game 1 here.
With Game 1 State of Origin Teams named at the end of Round 11 - we've got Scouting Reports on various contenders right here.
Here is the Predicted NSW Game 1 Team we believe coach Laurie Daley is set to announce for the June 5 clash with Queensland at ANZ Stadium.
Plus Mal Meninga's Queensland Team has also been predicted... though injuries are playing havoc with both lineups.

Continue reading below for the Round 11 Tipping Preview.

Who doesn't love a good draw?

Manly and Melbourne played out a riveting 80 minute draw at AAMI Park on Monday night... and then engaged in a less than engaging 10 minute overtime period as part of the David Gallop Golden Point initiative.

Since it came in around a decade ago, Golden Point has divided observers and but for approximately half of those people who might wish it be cast aside - in the era of TV controlling Rugby League - it's not going away.

But I don't bring up the game for the Golden Point field goal fest from unrealistic distances (though Gareth Widdop struck his beautifully) - I bring up the 80 minutes before that as one team dominated the first half as the other struggled with its identity and then in the second half one team found it had so much ball that eventually it realised that they might still be able to play the game... then the referee produced a magical square up and we had a tie at the end of 80 minutes.

I could be specific but if you watched the game at all closely in the final 15 minutes - you know what happened. Two calls that canceled each other out and both resulted in penalty goals.

But anyhoo - I love a good draw, both teams deserved something out of it (no matter what Geoff Toovey screamed about for half an hour at the press conference) and the players said as much on the field after the game.

I'd love to see the 80 minute draw back in the rulebook - both teams take a point and we move on, if only because I think the NRL Ladder gets a whole lot more interesting because of it.

To the tips!

PS - Before you go down to the Tips and Late Mail people - we have news on a temporary (and I stress temporary) NOT The Footy Show return...

New Podcast June 1st
We're BACK!
Admittedly only for a State of Origin Special but after getting a lot of feedback that people had missed our combination of footy chat and I guess you'd call it 'analysis' - a few of your NOT The Footy Show regulars are reuniting on May 31st to produce an hour long podcast previewing Game 1 on June 5 at ANZ Stadium.
We are not returning full time, this is just a chance to talk some footy with old friends and hopefully - remind you all of what you've missed!
So keep an eye on @NRLTweet for more details, but we can confirm that DC Chapman, Jake Hauritz, Nic McInerney and Matthew Duncan will join host Warrick Nicolson for a little more live to tape NOT The Footy Show fun.
The Origin 1 Podcast should be available on and iTunes by early afternoon Saturday June 1st.

For our analysis of Tuesday team selections for Round 11 - click here.

As far as Late Mail goes the rolling lockout for all you NRL Dream Team and NRL Super Coach nerds should have allowed you to make any last minute changes quite easily, but once again our Latest of Late Mail should help in any selections you make before the round begins.

The Postman has ANOTHER DOSE of NRL Dream Team and NRL Super Coach picks for you to consider entering Round 11.

@NRLTweet Player of the Year
Voting Allocation for Round 11 of the NRL is below.
ROUND 11, 2013
Wednesday Odds Courtesy of Sportingbet | NRL LADDER
Friday 7:35pm at ANZ Stadium
BULLDOGS $1.60 v $2.35 BRONCOS
Tuesday Teams Analysed on NRL Injured List
@NRLTweet Player of the Year Award Voters:
Warrick Nicolson @NRLTweet Matt Vickers @mercurialmattyv |
Track live round votes via #NRLTweetPOTY
Seems to be a trend this year in games where picking either team doesn't make a lot of sense... The Dogs backed up 3 straight wins with a deplorable effort in Newcastle, while the Broncos lost 2 in a row before coming out and running riot over the Titans. Neither side have been particularly good this year but health wise the Dogs look in better shape and they are at home... So when forced to pick between them let's go Canterbury by 8 points... I think.
BULLDOGS: Tony Williams is extremely long odds to play due to an ankle injury, so expect Josh Jackson to start. You would expect Martin Taupau or Tim Browne to slot into the final bench but there are whispers Lachlan Burr's NSW Cup form will be rewarded with an NRL debut. Josh Reynolds has an ongoing shoulder problem but should be okay.
LATE UPDATE? Josh Jackson will replace Tony Williams (ankle) in the run on team. Tim Browne is added to the bench.
The Postman's DT/SC TIP: I've been on the Benny Barba Express for the last fortnight - admittedly for moderate results - but the signs are there that he's got the feel for the game back... he's due for a monster game very soon.
BRONCOS: Justin Hodges is still no certainty - as evidenced by Denan Kemp's presence as 19th man. However don't rule out Scott Prince being a late inclusion... as foolish as playing him half fit would be.
LATE UPDATE? Hodges will play, while Prince has to wait another week. Lui and Kemp will drop off the bench. Broncos 1-17.
The Postman's DT/SC TIP: Alex Glenn is the only regular starting forward who won't feature in Origin (Hannant is injured/McCullough a hooker) and isn't a bad pickup for this time of year... especially if he starts finding the tryline again.
If you have a DT/SC question grab The Postman on Twitter @NRLTweet and I'll answer there.
Friday 7:35pm at Leichhardt Oval
TIGERS $3.30 v $1.35 COWBOYS
Tuesday Teams Analysed on NRL Injured List
@NRLTweet Player of the Year Award Voters:
Adrian McMurray @adrmcm Matthew Duncan @mrpeninsula |
Track live round votes via #NRLTweetPOTY
North Queensland have been 'unlucky' and 'unfortunate' for too many weeks in a row for mine... simply put you are either a good team or you are not. If they can't beat the Tigers (even in Sydney) then they are kidding themselves dreaming of September. The Tigers will stand up and be counted sooner or later... but you can't tip them yet. Cowboys by 10 points.
TIGERS: Braith Anasta will return but no one is really sure how far away Chris Lawrence is (hamstrings can be fickle things). The bench actually looks decent this week... 14-17.
LATE UPDATE? Anasta will play. Tegrs 1-17 so Utai, Murdoch-Masila and Spence miss out.
The Postman's DT/SC TIP: Benji Marshall is about to be incredibly cheap... just give it another week or two in SC (B/E of 90). However his B/E in DT is just 48... so if you think he's going to start kicking in general play again soon... very soon would be the time.
COWBOYS: Surely Neil Henry has to recall Jason Taumalolo this week... the Tigers look ripe for a dynamic runner to rip them to shreds again. Keep in mind Ashton Sims didn't see the field until the last 10 minutes last week and looked like Ashton Sims... Ray Thompson's unhappy game at dummy half may give Scott Moore or Anthony Mitchell another chance as well. Check the flight records out of Townsville.
LATE UPDATE? Ricky Thorby looks like the 18th man, so somehow Jason Taumalolo plays another week in QLD Cup. Bolton starts, Tamou to come off the bench.
The Postman's DT/SC TIP: Don't get on the Robert Lui bandwagon... not least because he can't stay fit and Michael Morgan is a better fit for the Cowboys. Don't do it.
If you have a DT/SC question grab The Postman on Twitter @NRLTweet and I'll answer there.
Saturday 5:30pm at WIN Jubilee Oval
DRAGONS $1.45 v $2.75 PANTHERS
Tuesday Teams Analysed on NRL Injured List
@NRLTweet Player of the Year Award Voters:
Justin Davies @dragonpunk12 Maria Tsialis @mtsialis |
Track live round votes via #NRLTweetPOTY
St George Illawarra are giving away Steedens on Saturday night... yep that's the most interesting part of this clash with the Panthers. Admittedly both teams won last week but I fancy neither as a team to actually go on with anything in 2013 - so let's go the home team by a margin of, let's say Dragons by 12 points.
DRAGONS: Matt Cooper is more likely than Brett Morris to return from injury - but we've heard that re: Cooper for the last two weeks. Mitch Rein expects to play.
LATE UPDATE? Cooper and Prior miss out, with Morris and Rein taking their place in the team. Vidot or Nightingale will play in the centres for Cooper.
The Postman's DT/SC TIP: Jack Stockwell has at least one more price rise in him but that's not why you hold him - his playing status for Round 12 is why. B/E in the 20s means he should get there... save him for a post-Round 12 trade.
PANTHERS: Wes Naiqama will return from a knee injury in NSW Cup... at five-eighth. But don't expect Ivan Cleary to make any unforced changes to his team after a 62-6 win.
LATE UPDATE? Ryan Simpkins is replaced by James Roberts on the bench.
The Postman's DT/SC TIP: If you want Isaac John's cash injection and want to use 2 trades - do it. If you want to save trades, John isn't for you. Note: Penrith has a bye in Round 12.
If you have a DT/SC question grab The Postman on Twitter @NRLTweet and I'll answer there.
Saturday 7:30pm at Brookvale Oval
SEA EAGLES $1.45 v $2.80 RAIDERS
Tuesday Teams Analysed on NRL Injured List
@NRLTweet Player of the Year Award Voters:
Matt Trodden @trods2906 Matt Spillane @devonhead |
Track live round votes via #NRLTweetPOTY
Manly's coaching staff might be fuming over taking only a point from Melbourne but their players would be ecstatic after not seeing the ball for the first 20 minutes of the second half and still getting a point. Canberra are a hard team to read as when they should back up a good win - they don't and when they get beat they find a way to rebound when they shouldn't... If Manly lead early Canberra won't trouble them... but the other way around and the fatigue factor comes into play for the home team Sea Eagles. Let's go Manly by 10 points.
SEA EAGLES: Geoff Toovey seems incapable of using David Gower - even when his team plays 10 extra minutes, so don't be surprised if there's a change on the bench. Steve Matai's hamstring is the only real concern here - with Tom Symonds likely to replace him if Matai is ruled out.
LATE UPDATE? Matai remains the only concern.
The Postman's DT/SC TIP: Kieran Foran is one big tease... he was sensational on Monday Night but you don't get extra points for key plays in Fantasy Land (AFL SuperCoach excepted) and thus despite his affordability - do not pick him up in DT or SC.
RAIDERS: Josh McCrone could miss with a hip injury, and David Furner will have to choose between starting Anthony Milford instead of Sam Williams. Joel Thompson should play, while Jarrod Croker probably gets another week off. If Glen Buttriss returns from injury, Milford is almost certain to start and Williams would miss out.
LATE UPDATE? McCrone says he's right to go, sending Williams back to NSW Cup. Fensom's eye isn't pretty but he wants to play. Croker travelled with the team and will play, so Sandor Earl misses out.
The Postman's DT/SC TIP: Anthony Milford will skyrocket in price again next week if he plays semi-decently against Manly... but will Furner keep him playing enough minutes for his addition not to be a move that costs you 2 trades - despite the cash he generates?
If you have a DT/SC question grab The Postman on Twitter @NRLTweet and I'll answer there.
Saturday 7:30pm at Allianz Stadium
ROOSTERS $1.60 v $2.35 STORM
Tuesday Teams Analysed on NRL Injured List
@NRLTweet Player of the Year Award Voters:
Ben Hoese @gunnermcdagget Matthew Duncan @mrpeninsula |
Track live round votes via #NRLTweetPOTY
Let's start with a quality yet insignificant stat: In the last 7 games between Easts & Melbourne the lowest winning margin is 16 points. The average margin of victory is 28 points. They have split the past 4 games (slightly more relevant) but the Storm have won 5 of 7.
To what actually might matter - Melbourne managed to grab a point out of their clash with Manly. That's huge for the psyche of the STorm - with Cooper Cronk in particular struggling on the night. To get away with a point with all the possession they had was huuuuuuge. Lose that and Sydney are significant favourites at home this Saturday. I like what the Roosters have done in back to back weeks - beating Manly and North Queensland away from home (especially up front last week without Moa/JWH) but I still rate Melbourne as the best in the business so I'll tip the Storm by 7 points.
ROOSTERS: Trent Robinson has proven to be fairly predictable with his team winning... that's a good thing for both the Roosters and Fantasy Leaguers. Will we see Isaac Liu if Luke O'Donnell's head knock is half serious?
LATE UPDATE? Dylan Napa is 18th man at this stage.
The Postman's DT/SC TIP: Everytime Mitchell Aubusson puts up a DT/SC performance that says 'pick me!' he backs it up with a game that says 'what were you doing you idiot?'. Good player but just too inconsistent to trade into your side at this stage of the season.
STORM: Will Chambers might be a late inclusion... if he was injured in the first place and not just dropped for Maurice Blair. Brett Finch remains a chance - especially if Craig Bellamy wants an injection of enthusiasm into the side. Slade Griffin could come in for Lagi Setu if Finch doesn't.
LATE UPDATE? Griffin is 18th man at this stage. Jordan McLean (a prop) will debut, so Lagi Setu's spot might be under threat. RLW Mole also thinks Mahe Fonua is set to miss, so hello Will Chambers?
The Postman's DT/SC TIP: If you think Maurice Blair is a Bellamy favorite you are correct... if you think he can keep Will Chambers out of the top grade - he's a steal in both SC and DT... but you are being very game thinking that.
If you have a DT/SC question grab The Postman on Twitter @NRLTweet and I'll answer there.
Sunday 2:00pm at Mt Smart Stadium (NZ time)
WARRIORS $2.25 v $1.65 KNIGHTS
Tuesday Teams Analysed on NRL Injured List
@NRLTweet Player of the Year Award Voters:
Greg Delaney @gregdelaney84 Adrian McMurray @adrmcm |
Track live round votes via #NRLTweetPOTY
Can't pick the Warriors after getting smashed by 56 points but I'm not wild about picking the Knights away from home either... The Knights on a wet track in Auckland worry me... but then again the Warriors on any track do the same. I'll keep this simple and logical and pick the Knights by 7 points.
WARRIORS: Matt Elliott made a couple of changes on Tuesday but don't rule out more... Konrad Hurrell was named on the wing for NSW Cup and Jerome Ropati at centre. With Dane Nielsen no certainty due to a rib injury - both could play even though they have been named for the Vulcans. Up front Sam Rapira's hand injury is a worry, while Todd Lowrie is unlikely with a rib problem.
LATE UPDATE? Word filtered through that Ben Henry did his ACL at training, so Jerome Ropati or Konrad Hurrell likely get the call, with Ngani Laumape on standby for the wing. Lowrie won't play and Locke is still in some doubt.
The Postman's DT/SC TIP: To those that kept Kurt Gidley through his rough patch... he's earning cash again for you. Plus there is talk he might miss the NSW bench - graaaavy for DT/SC coaches.
KNIGHTS: Akuila Uate will need to be running by later in the week to get his spot back from Kevin Naiqama. Otherwise it would be surprising to see any other changes.
LATE UPDATE? Uate looks very likely to play.
The Postman's DT/SC TIP: No value here... but if Todd Lowrie has done a good job for you so far - his rib injury means it is time to cut the cord and trade up.
If you have a DT/SC question grab The Postman on Twitter @NRLTweet and I'll answer there.
Sunday 3:00pm at Mudgee Stadium
EELS $2.08 v $1.75 TITANS
Tuesday Teams Analysed on NRL Injured List
@NRLTweet Player of the Year Award Voters:
Matt Spillane @devonhead Matt Trodden @trods2906 |
Track live round votes via #NRLTweetPOTY
Utterly stoked to see a Premiership game taken to the bush. Considering the Eels would have struggled to attract 7,000 people to Parramatta Stadium for a visit from the Titans - this move just makes sense on every level. Problem is - I do not rate Parramatta... so much so that when I started this Preview a few hours ago I initially tipped the Eels by 1 point... but the Titans can't be that bad again (that being their 'effort' Friday against Brisbane) right? Stuff it - if I don't rate Parra, how can I possibly pick them? Titans by 6 points.
EELS: Ryan Morgan is still in NSW Cup - so it seems like Api Pewhairangi's spot is somewhat safe for now... but don't hold anyone to that. Junior Paulo was a pleasant surprise against the Dragons and should hold his spot. Mitch Allgood's shoulder is a worry.
LATE UPDATE? 1-17 in all likelihood. Does anyone have a manifest of the bus that left Parramatta Thursday arvo? Well someone has... suggestions Ryan Morgan and Ben Smith might be recalled which is not good news for Junior Paulo or Api Pewhairangi owners. The other tip is rookie forward Pauli Pauli getting his debut.
The Postman's DT/SC TIP: The Eels are the DT/SC Rookie Production Factory this year... fresh off the line with Api Pewhairangi and Peni Terepo worth of consideration this week entering their 3rd game. Somehow Ken Sio is at the lowest possible price in DT... yet hasn't been seen in a game for weeks... people remember his hey-day last year right?
TITANS: Nate Myles should be okay despite a lingering calf problem, while Dave Taylor beat his judicial charge and is free to play. Matt Srama did some damage to his finger last week but he should be able to bandage it up and play. Ryan James has an ongoing groin issue but will play.
LATE UPDATE? Ashley Harrison has a knee concern and though he will travel with the team, may not play. Dave Taylor became the 18th man in the squad when cleared at the judiciary, and may force Mark Ioane out of the squad if Harrison is fit.
The Postman's DT/SC TIP: He might not be a huge scorer when he plays but prop Mark Ioane might be an okay downgrade target for the Origin period... should get game time when the Origin crew depart... just a thought.
If you have a DT/SC question grab The Postman on Twitter @NRLTweet and I'll answer there.
Monday 7:00pm at Sharks Stadium
SHARKS $3.25 v $1.35 RABBITOHS
Tuesday Teams Analysed on NRL Injured List
@NRLTweet Player of the Year Award Voters:
Nigel Wilbow @parramattersWarrick Nicolson @NRLTweet |
Track live round votes via #NRLTweetPOTY
Cronulla took every chance they got from Canberra en route to a 30-20 victory at Shark Park... but Souths won't give them out so freely. If Gallen and Lewis play - Cronulla are in this because their pack matches up well with the Rabbitohs. Souths will drop a game like this eventually but right now, you've gotta stick with the hot hand - even if the Bunnies are coming off a walk in the part against the Tigers. Rabbitohs by 4 points.
SHARKS: Given this game is MNF - Paul Gallen will be given every chance. Likewise for Luke Lewis and his shoulder injury. Both will be in the NSW team named the day before so if either aren't close to 100% they probably don't play for the Sharks. Jayson Bukuya and Chris Heighington would start instead. Michael Gordon's calf is a worry but he has maintained it wasn't serious last week when he did it...
LATE UPDATE? Gallen and Lewis are out, and Gordon is a major doubt... Gardner would come in for Gordon if he withdraws. Peachey and Tagataese seem like obvious replacements for the two forwards.
The Postman's DT/SC TIP: Jayson Bukuya is tempting price right now... but don't forget he couldn't get a run earlier this year and had limited minutes most weeks when he did. His cash-cow-ness-ness was last year.
RABBITOHS: Ben Te'o is expected to play despite an off-field issue he and the club are dealing with. Dave Tyrrell is unlikely to force anyone out and will be 18th man. Dylan Walker will start ahead of Dylan Farrell in the centres again with Andrew Everingham suspended.
LATE UPDATE? Te'o will play. Lima apparently played NSW Cup, so Tyrrell might get a late recall.
The Postman's DT/SC TIP: Dylan Walker is cheap but his halves positional attribution isn't kind and his job security remains unclear until Andrew Everingham comes back... in saying that - Everingham has been DT/SC kryptonite this year... give DW another week if you can.
If you have a DT/SC question grab The Postman on Twitter @NRLTweet and I'll answer there.
What are your tips for Round 11? 
Are you taking any advice from our Awesome Foursome panel this year?
Let us know by commenting below or replying on Twitter.
SPECIAL FRIED RICE involves each tipster taking a 'certainty' in a set order, with the tipster with the highest score at the end of the year literally winning a mountain of Special Fried Rice. The SFR Order rotates every week and is a fun way to put your rice where your mouth is.
ROUND 11 SELECTIONS | The Awesome Foursome
Warrick D. Nicolson, The NRL Tweet
Bulldogs Cowboys Dragons Sea Eagles Storm Knights Titans Rabbitohs
LW: 4/8 | SEASON: 51/80
CBY -6.5 NQL -10.5 STI -7.5 MAN -9.5
MEL +2.5 NEW -2.5 GLD -1.5 CRO +6.5
LW: 4/8 | SEASON: 43/80
Special Fried Rice: COWBOYS over Tigers (Has 2nd Pick)
Season SFR: 7.5/10
Broncos Cowboys Panthers Sea Eagles Storm Knights Titans Rabbitohs
LW: 5/8 | SEASON: 46/80
BRI +6.5 WTG +10.5 PEN +7.5 MAN -9.5
MEL +2.5 NEW -2.5 GLD -1.5 SOU -6.5
LW: 4/8 | SEASON: 37/80
Special Fried Rice: KNIGHTS over Warriors (Has 4th Pick)
Season SFR: 7/10 
Jake Hauritz, Channel 9 Darwin
Bulldogs Cowboys Dragons Sea Eagles Storm Knights Titans Rabbitohs
LW: 5/8 | SEASON: 55/80
BRI +6.5 NQL -10.5 PEN +7.5 CAN +9.5
MEL +2.5 NEW -2.5 GLD -1.5 SOU -6.5
LW: 3/8 | SEASON: 39/80
Special Fried Rice: SEA EAGLES over Raiders (Has 3rd Pick)
Season SFR: 6/10
DC Chapman, League Lover
Bulldogs Cowboys Dragons Sea Eagles Roosters Knights Titans Rabbitohs
LW: 6/8 | SEASON: 44/80
CBY -6.5 WTG +10.5 PEN +7.5 MAN -9.5
SYD -2.5 NEW -2.5 GLD -1.5 SOU -6.5
LW: 5/8 | SEASON: 29/80
Special Fried Rice: RABBITOHS over Sharks (Has 1st Pick)
Season SFR: 8/10
The NRL Injury List is updated regularly during each week of the season, making it an invaluable Fantasy and Tipping Tool alongside our Weekly NRL Previews once again.

Remember if you want game-specific Late Mail every week, then check out our Round Previews Every Wednesday and they are updated with all the very latest Late Mail on Friday.

If we are missing any players on this list - please comment below, reply on Twitter or email this address.
Who will take Ben Barba's mantle as champion in the 2013 @NRLTweet Player of the Year Awards?

The Prestigious Award returns for a 4th season in 2013.
@NRLTweet Player of the Year Award Voters:
Warrick Nicolson @NRLTweet | Nigel Wilbow @parramatters
Justin Davies @dragonpunk12 | Greg Delaney @gregdelaney84
Matt Spillane @devonhead | Matt Trodden @trods2906
Matt Vickers @mercurialmattyv | Ben Hoese @gunnermcdagget
Adrian McMurray @adrmcm | Matthew Duncan @mrpeninsula
Maria Tsialis @mtsialis | Ben Jones @benwah87

Review all of the voting results from 2012 right here

Remember you can track all the votes each week after each match in 2013 via the Twitter hashtag #nrltweetpoty