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Wednesday, 4 May 2011

NRL 2011 - Round 9 NRL Preview Tips Teams Predictions Late Mail Fantasy News Odds

ROUND 9 NRL PREVIEW - 2011 SEASON

The best NRL Preview on the net is back online with all the info you need to make an 'informed decision' in your Fantasy and Tipping Competitions.
Make sure you bookmark www.wdnicolson.com and grab the Panel's Tips below, Download the Podcast and be sure to check back on Friday for the Latest Mail as it breaks.

ROUND 9 VIDEO PREVIEW
NOT The Footy Show's Round 9 Podcast
Podcast 05/05/2011: Episode 59 NRL 2011 - Round 9 Preview

SPECIAL FRIED RICE - ROUND 9
- Waz 4/8: Raiders, Matt 6/8: Warriors, Dave 6/8: Sea Eagles; Nic 6/8: Dragons -

You can check out who the NOT The Footy Show Experts picked for the 2011 Premiership via this link.
NOT The Footy Show Podcast is available every Thursday - subscribe now on iTunes so you don't miss out.
Check out the Round 9 Tipping Preview below...
Welcome to Season 2011... after an off-season that often feels longer (or shorter - depends if you like cricket or not) than it is - the footy is back. Here on www.wdnicolson.com we've got all the Tuesday Team News, Wednesday Previews and Friday Late Mail that will keep your Tipping and Fantasy habit well fed. This preview integrates our NRL Injured List - which if you haven't bookmarked by now - I suggest you do so.
This year not only do you get The NRL Tweet's Tips each week but the whole NOT The Footy Show team will have their picks listed by Thursday so you can back a smoky or a favourite by seeing who we all picked (or didn't pick).
Truthfully there is no perfect formula but here's a vital tip to help you cope with the copious amounts of NRL Tipping Comp's you are already in - PICK ON TUESDAY and enter your tips into all the sites no later than Wednesday. The reason for this is you can A. There is nothing worse than trying to cram your picks in late on a Friday afternoon and B. If you pick on Tuesday you can always change your mind and you would have given the Round some thought before Friday 7:29pm.
ROUND 9 MATCHUPS 
05/05 Odds are courtesy of Sportingbet Australia
$1.22 V $4.35 Fri @ Skilled | LINE: NZL +12.0
$1.53 V $2.50 Fri @ Suncorp | LINE: CITY +5.5
$2.50 V $1.53 Sat @ Suncorp | LINE: BRI +5.5
$1.56 V $2.45 Sun @ Skilled | LINE: WAR +4.5
$1.52 V $2.55 Sun @ WIN Jubilee | LINE: NQL +5.5
$1.38 v $3.10 Mon @ Brookvale | LINE: CAN +8.0
ROUND 9 BYES
THE NRL TWEET's ROUND 9 PREVIEW
FRIDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL
              V
7:45pm (Local) 6 May @ Skilled Park, Gold Coast.
Coming In... 
AUSTRALIA - 2010 FOUR NATIONS RUNNERS UP
NEW ZEALAND - 2010 FOUR NATIONS CHAMPIONS
Head to Head Last 10...
KANGAROOS 7 KIWIS 2 DRAW 1 - New Zealand took out the 2010 Four Nations with a 16-12 win and the World Cup 34-20 in 2008 but it has been a lean stretch otherwise. Australia has not lost an ANZAC Test since 1998.
Tuesday Team News...
AUS: B Slater, B Morris, G Inglis, J Hodges, J Yow Yeh, D Lockyer (c), J Thurston, P Civoniceva, C Smith, M Scott, B Creagh, S Thaiday, P Gallen. BENCH: C Cronk, B Hannant, J Idris, K Snowden, B Scott (18th Man).
[Team Notes - Australia named David Shillington on the bench but he was ruled out with a pectoral tear and Kade Snowden comes in to replace him. Paul Gallen, Matthew Scott and 18th man Beau Scott are in minor doubt but should play. ]
NZL: L Hohaia, M Duffie, S Mannering, S Kenny-Dowall, J Nightingale, B Marshall (c), K Foran, S Rapira, N Fien, S McKendry, A Blair, B Harrison, J Smith. BENCH: I Luke, B Matulino, FF MoiMoi, G Eastwood, G Beale/L Brown (18th and 19th Men)
[Team Notes - New Zealand confirmed their 17 Man Team with Gerard Beale and Lewis Brown the ones to miss out. Adam Blair and Nathan Fien are in minor doubt but should play. ]
Wednesday Game Preview...
Australia have their best attacking combination fit and in form with Slater, Lockyer, Thurston and Smith in the team. The forward pack should be keen to meet the Kiwis face to face and if they hold their own - the Kangaroos backline should win Australia the Test.
Tipping + Fantasy Late Mail... 
SMH Late Mail 06/05 - Justin Hodges had back spasms late in the week, so Australia drafted in Willie Tonga as cover. Adam Blair is the man most in doubt for the Kiwis with Lewis Brown to play if Blair can't go.
The NRL Tweet's Tip... 
KANGAROOS  To Win By 14 Points.
|-| |-| |-|
FRIDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL
7:45pm (Local) 6 May @ Lavington Sports Ground, Albury, NSW.
Coming In... 
COUNTRY defeated CITY 36-18 in Port Macquarie last year.
Head to Head Last 10...
CITY 5 COUNTRY 4 DRAW 1 - The two teams have been evenly matched over the last ten games and had a draw in Wollongong in 2008.
Tuesday Team News...
CITY: J Hayne, W Hopoate, M Jennings, B Champion, N Merritt, K Keating, M Pearce, K Galloway, R Farah (c), T Mannah, M Minichiello, S Dwyer, L Futon. Bench: T Grant, A Cuthbertson, T Symonds, S Shackleton, J Leilua (18th Man).
[Team Notes - The City team lost some players over the weekend but the team they named on Sunday night is as per program... for the moment. ]
COUNTRY: J Dugan, M Gordon, J Morris, J Thompson, A Uate, J Soward, J Mullen, D Hunt, R Hinchcliffe, A Tolman, C Houston, G Stewart, C Heighington. Bench: T Moltzen, T Learoyd-Lahrs, T Merrin, M Prior, M Aubusson (18th Man)
[Team Notes - Country were disrupted by player withdrawals on Sunday and Monday and the latest was Michael Ennis being replaced by Ryan Hinchcliffe on Tuesday. ]
Wednesday Game Preview...
Country have the home ground advantage (which they've had for years!) but have had the more disruptions with player withdrawals. In fact the City Boys haven't lost a single player since naming their team on Sunday Night. With Jarryd Hayne and Robbie Farah fighting to secure a NSW spot - they give the City boys a real touch of class but this is in Albury so the Country boys have plenty to play for... including NSW jerseys.
Tipping + Fantasy Late Mail... 
SMH Late Mail 06/05 - No big concerns for their team with Joseph Leilua and Mitchell Aubusson expected to miss out as 18th men.
The NRL Tweet's Tip... 
COUNTRY To Win By 2 Points.
|-| |-| |-|
SATURDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL
              V
7:35pm (Local) 7 May @ Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane.
Coming In... 
BRONCOS 2nd - TEAM RECORD: 7-1 for 14 Points, +14.
STORM 3rd - TEAM RECORD: 6-2 for 12 Points, +105.
Head to Head Last 10...
BRONCOS 3 STORM 7 - Melbourne and Brisbane have split the last 4 games but the Storm have won 7 of the last 9.
Tuesday Team News...
BRI: Norman, Gagai, Reed, Copley, Moylan, B Hunt, Wallace, Kenny, McCullough, Dodds, Glenn, Carlaw, Parker (c). Bench: Baptise, Anderson, Lui, Hala, J Hunt.
[Team Changes - The Broncos have rested all their rep stars with Lockyer, Yow Yeh, Hodges, Thaiday, Beale and Hannant due to play on Friday. Expect Hodges not to lineup and possibly Thaiday but the rest probably play. Josh McGuire is an injury casualty, while due to a neck injury Shane Tronc has not been able to get past youngsters Lui and Hala for a bench spot. Shea Moylan makes his debut from the wing and Dane Gagai, Ben Hunt, Mitchell Dodds and Corey Norman get starting spots. Kurt Baptise and Josh Hunt get runs on the bench. The over/under on 'Baby Broncos' references in the press by Saturday is conservatively set at 9.5. ]
MEL: Slater, Duffie, Nielsen, Champion, Quinn, Widdop, Cronk, Bromwich, Smith (c), Norrie, Blair, Proctor, Lowrie. Bench: Hinchcliffe, Vea, Woolnough, Lowe.
[Team Changes - There are no changes for the Storm at this stage but with rep stars involved on Friday Night - Slater, Smith, Hinchcliffe, Blair, Cronk and Duffie may or may not back up. ]
Wednesday Game Preview...
Which team plays the most of its rep stars? That's the real question heading into this clash less than 24 hours after Friday's Rep Games. My best guess is that Lockyer, Hodges, Thaiday and Hannant won't line up for the Broncos (Hodges almost certainly will not) and Billy Slater, Adam Blair or Cameron Smith might get a rest for the Storm. Expect Jharal Yow Yeh, Gerard Beale, Ryan Hinchcliffe, Matt Duffie and Cooper Cronk to play though. The Broncos have defended superbly during their winning streak but Lockyer's kicking game is a big reason behind it being so effective and if he doesn't play and at least Cronk and one of Smith or Slater does - I'm picking Melbourne.
Tipping + Fantasy Late Mail... 
SMH Late Mail 06/05 - The Broncos will not have Justin Hodges and Sam Thaiday backing up from the Test match but Darren Lockyer remains a strong chance to play. Jharal Yow Yeh and Gerard Beale are almost certainties. The Storm are taking 25 players to Brisbane but could actually play all their rep stars. Beau Champion is definitely out for the Storm after hurting his shoulder in City-Country.
The NRL Tweet's Tip... 
STORM To Win By 2 Points.
|-| |-| |-|
SUNDAY FOOTBALL
              V
2:05pm (Local) 8 May @ Skilled Park, Gold Coast.
Coming In... 
TITANS 11th - TEAM RECORD: 3-5 for 6 Points, -39.
WARRIORS 9th - TEAM RECORD: 4-4 for 8 Points, -5.
Head to Head Last 10...
TITANS 6 WARRIORS 2 - The Gold Coast have dominated their recent history with 6 straight wins since Round 7, 2008.
Tuesday Team News...
GLD: Campbell, Michaels, Tonga, Thompson, Mead, Zillman, Prince (c), Bailey, Brown, White, Bird, Minichiello, Harrison. Bench: Henderson, James, James, Ridge, O'Dwyer, Lawton.
[Team Changes - Greg Bird is named after being unavailable for the rep games on Friday night. Mark Minichiello is the only player backing up. With Nathan Friend having a routine shoulder check in the form of surgery he will miss this game and Riley Brown and Kayne Lawton are drafted into the squad as cover. Despite copping a whopping $25,000 fine for drink driving, Matthew White is named to start at prop. ]
WAR: Hohaia, Locke, Brown, Mannering (c), Inu, Maloney, Seymour, Sam Rapira, Heremaia, Lillyman, Mateo, Taylor, Luck. Bench: Mara, Packer, Matulino, Ta'ai.
[Team Changes - No changes from the team that beat the Panthers in Auckland although the speculation that Manu Vatuvei will return this week intensifies with the suggestion he's flying to the Gold Coast to 'watch' both this game and the ANZAC Test at Skilled Park. ]
Wednesday Game Preview...
With the loss of Nathan Friend the Titans are in danger of slipping into bad habits in attack as Friend's return a few weeks ago got Scott Prince going again. Yes Preston Campbell will be at fullback but the Warriors are moving it forward nicely and the Maloney-Seymour kicking game is firing right now... plus Manu Vatuvei could be back for this one. Warriors at Skilled for me - getting some revenge for losing their qualifying final at the ground last year.
Tipping + Fantasy Late Mail... 
SMH Late Mail 06/05 - The Warriors will decide on Manu Vatuvei's fitness on Saturday with Kevin Locke, Alahana Mara or Ukuma Ta'ai set to miss out for his inclusion. One line of thought could see Simon Mannering or Lewis Brown move to the backrow with Krisnan Inu going to centre for the inclusion of Vatuvei. The Warriors have Sione Lousi, Bill Tupou, Joel Moon and Jeremy Latimore joining the team on the Gold Coast as cover for their rep players. The Titans should have Mark Minichiello backup and Greg Bird despite missing the City v Country game with injury will play. Sam Rapira is out for the Warriors after breaking his thumb in the ANZAC Test, and Manu Vatuvei is expected to play.
The NRL Tweet's Tip... 
WARRIORS To Win By 10 Points.
|-| |-| |-|
SUNDAY FOOTBALL
              V
3:05pm (Local) 8 May @ WIN Jubilee Stadium, Sydney.
Coming In... 
DRAGONS 1st - TEAM RECORD: 7-1 for 14 Points, +97.
COWBOYS 4th - TEAM RECORD: 6-2 for 12 Points, +54.
Head to Head Last 10...
DRAGONS 5 COWBOYS 5 - Although the Dragons won the last two games convincingly, the Cowboys had won 4 straight from 2007 until 2009.
Tuesday Team News...
STI: Stanley, Morris, Gasnier, Cooper, Nightingale, Soward, Hornby (c), Hunt, Young, Weyman, Scott, Creagh, Prior. Bench: Green, Fien, Cuthbertson, Merrin.
[Team Changes - It should surprise no one to see Mark Gasnier and Dean Young named to start despite both being withdrawals from the City-Country fixture due to injury. Kyle Stanley stays at fullback but Peni Tagive might get a late call up if Brett Morris or Jason Nightingale get a rest after playing in the ANZAC Test. Jamie Soward, Adam Cuthbertson, Dan Hunt, Trent Merrin, Nathan Fien, Beau Scott and Ben Creagh will likely backup as well. ]
NQL: Bowen, Graham, Winterstein, Tonga, Fai-Fai Loa, Thompson, Thurston (c), Scott (c), Payne, Tamou, Cooper, Hall, Johnson. Bench: Bolton, L Ah Mau, T Sims, A Sims.
[Team Changes - There are no changes for the Cowboys but there is a big doubt over Aaron Payne with an arm injury sustained v Manly. James Segeyaro would come into the squad if Payne was ruled out. Dallas Johnson should play despite wearing Brent Tate's neck brace in the last game and Johnathan Thurston and Matt Scott should backup from the ANZAC Test. ]
Wednesday Game Preview...
With a motza of players backing up from rep duty this game will test the Dragons as long as Johnathan Thurston and Matthew Scott are able to backup for the Cowboys. North Queensland are really having a dig defensively and Thurston and Matthew Bowen are firing so they should give the Dragons defence a workout. But this game is at Kogarah and there's enough professional heads not involved in rep footy that suggests to me the Dragons will be too good.
Tipping + Fantasy Late Mail... 
SMH Late Mail 06/05 - The Dragons will assess their rep troop Saturday but will have cover available as it is a home game. The Cowboys will put Toyota Cup half Michael Morgan on standby for Johnathan Thurston while James Segeyaro flies with the team as cover for Matthew Scott or as a straight swap for Ashton Sims or Leeson Ah Mau on the bench. Jamie Soward is definitely out after hurting his groin and thumb during City-Country and is joined by Nathan Fien and Jason Nightingale on the sidelines.
The NRL Tweet's Tip... 
DRAGONS To Win By 13 Points.
|-| |-| |-|
MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL
              V
7:05pm (Local) 9 May @ Brookvale Oval, Sydney.
Coming In... 
SEA EAGLES 5th - TEAM RECORD: 5-3 for 10 Points, +31.
RAIDERS 16th - TEAM RECORD: 1-7 for 2 Points, -80
Head to Head Last 10...
SEA EAGLES 7 RAIDERS 3 - Canberra's win in Round 18 last year saved their season but Manly have won 7 of the last 9 games dating back to 2004.
Tuesday Team News...
MAN: B Stewart, Robertson, Lyon (c), Matai, Hopoate, K Foran, Cherry-Evans, King (c), Ballin, Kite, Watmough, Galuvao, G Stewart. Bench: Mauro, Buhrer, Rose, T Williams, D Williams, Oldfield, Robinson.
[Team Changes - Brett Stewart returns! For the 84th time in the past 3 weeks, Stewart is named to play despite a hamstring injury that has ruled him out 84 times. David Williams has been named on the bench but faces a long NSW Cup stint after returning from injury. Kieran Foran has been named despite being in doubt for the ANZAC Test and could actually open up a spot for Michael Oldfield to stay in the top grade if he is unable to backup. Jamie Lyon would move to five-eighth, William Hopoate to the centres and Oldfield onto the wing. Tony Williams, Tim Robinson, George Rose and Vic Mauro are fighting for two bench spots, which may become three if Jason King (ribs) is unable to play. Anthony Watmough is named to play as well despite being unavailable for City selection with shoulder and leg injuries. ]
CAN: Dugan, Ferguson, Croker, Thompson, Robinson, McCrone, Orford, Tilse, Tongue (c), White, Galea, Harrison (c), Fensom. Bench: Buttriss, Miller, Learoyd-Lahrs, Thurling, Mataora.
[Team Changes - Canberra have listed Dugan, Thompson and Learoyd-Lahrs to backup from representing Country Origin on Friday Night and have stunningly dropped Daniel Vidot. Reece Robinson comes in for Vidot, while Danny Galea starts for Trevor Thurling in the second row. Sam Mataora is the new face on the bench and Alan Tongue starts for Glen Buttriss. Brett White starts for the injured David Shillington who has a pectoral injury. ]
Wednesday Game Preview...
Will this be the week that the Raiders get a second win for 2011? Don't rule it out, Manly are carrying some injured players right now and with their best players in recent weeks Will Hopoate, Glenn Stewart and Kieran Foran backing up from rep duty - I like the Raiders to win at Brookie because to be 1-8 after 9 rounds - your season IS over.
Tipping + Fantasy Late Mail... 
SMH Late Mail 06/05 - The return of Brett Stewart from a hammy injury gathers pace and he's expected to play as long as he doesn't aggravate it over the weekend. Jason King is in the most doubt with a rib injury while Anthony Watmough should play. Canberra didn't have David Shillington for this game anyway but to go with his pectoral injury he's getting a knee operation for an injury he's been carrying for weeks. And all players due to backup from Rep games will be assessed later on the weekend.
The NRL Tweet's Tip... 
RAIDERS To Win By 4 Points.
|-| |-| |-|
ROUND 9 BYES
|-| |-| |-|
CONGRATS MARIA TSIALIS - Her Slow Pokes took out Phase One of NOT The Footy Show's Fantasy League.
|-| |-| |-|
@NRLTWEET 2011 TIPPING RECORD 
TOTAL AFTER 8 ROUNDS - 33/64 @ 51.6%
The NRL Tweet finished with 125 correct tips from 192 Games in 2010 at a strike rate of 65%.

ROUND 9 SELECTIONS
Warrick Nicolson, The NRL Tweet + NTFS Host
Australia (Tip does not count towards end of year Total)
Country (Tip does not count towards end of year Total)
Storm
Warriors
Dragons
Raiders
| SEASON 33/64
Nic McInerney, NTFS Co-Host
Australia
Country
Storm
Titans
Dragons
Sea Eagles
| SEASON 39/64
Matt Duncan, 101.5 FM's SportsFever
Australia
Country
Broncos
Warriors
Cowboys
Sea Eagles
| SEASON 36/64
Dave Chapman, NTFS Co-Host
Australia
Country
Storm
Warriors
Dragons
Sea Eagles
| SEASON 38/64
Maria Tsialis, Big League Magazine
Australia
Country
Broncos
Warriors
Cowboys
Sea Eagles
| SEASON 34/64
Andy Raymond, Fox Sports Commentator
Australia
Country
Broncos
Titans
Dragons
Sea Eagles
| SEASON 30/64
Eyes, The Kid Who Sees All
Australia
Country
Broncos
Warriors
Cowboys
Raiders
| SEASON 30/64
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]-[ It's not too late to join our Tipping Competition as long as you're already signed up for Tipping on the Daily Telegraph Website. We use that site because their overall prize is pretty good and you'll be on there for Super Coach anyway. Our League Code is 446386 and you can invite as many people as you want to take on the boys & girls from NOT The Footy Show.
1st Prize is an Official Steeden Match ball.
As an added bonus - here is a Fantasy League BYE Week Cheat Sheet. Especially for the NRL Dream Team, Super Coach or Fantasy NRL minded crew.
SO GO OUT AND ENJOY THE FOOTY!

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