Wednesday 7 August 2013

#NRL 2013: Round 22 Tips Late Mail Predictions Preview #NRLLateMail #NRLDT #Supercoach

ROUND 22 TIPS and LATE MAIL
Plus The Postman's NRL Dream Team/NRL Super Coach Picks

 2013 NRL Premiership

By W D Nicolson - August 7, 2013


EXTRA LATEST OF LATE MAIL ADDED THROUGHOUT ROUND
ALL EXPERT PICKS AND SPECIAL FRIED RICE ADDED AS RECEIVED
View 2013 @NRLTweet PLAYER OF THE YEAR Final Public LEADERBOARD
Have things gone topsy turvy for... ?
| NRL LADDER |

 If you recall anything written on www.wdnicolson.com this season - it is DO NOT write off the Melbourne Storm. Plenty have and are all doing an about face after they beat Canberra 68-4... South Sydney - darlings of one and all - lost John Sutton and to the Cowboys in the space of one week... as well as their long held Minor Premiership lead.

Enter the Roosters - who will probably enter Round 26 with the J.J.Giltinan Shield wrapped up before taking on Souths.

The Storm and Manly will finish 3rd and 4th... as they are 5 points behind the Rabbits right now... but stranger things have happened.

READ: Why Brisbane reign the player market without a Draft

The other 4 spots in the Top 8 is still open to I reckon 7 teams.

The Dogs and Sharks hold the home ground games for week one of the finals as it stands right now and a 4 point buffer on the teams out of the Top 8, with Canberra and Newcastle rounding out the playoff spots at the moment a couple of points behind.
The Gold Coast, Warriors and Penrith are close enough but does anyone think they are good enough? No.

The other teams mathematically still in it are: North Queensland on 18 points who simply cannot make it - don't pretend they can, while Brisbane only stayed in mathematical reach with their one point last week to be on 19 points.

Remember 8th is currently the Knights on 23 points as we enter Round 22. Meaning the Broncos have to make up 4 points over 5 games and their differential is over 100pts worse than the Knights.

BUT having said all that... the Top 8 isn't settled... because most teams in the mix are really quite average. Welcome to the NRL!

READ: The Postman's FOUR OF THE BEST Fantasy Tips for Round 22

Latest of Late Mail and Round 22 Tips below! Hayne is playing, Inglis will play next week.

For our analysis of Tuesday team selections for Round 22 - click here.

As far as Late Mail goes the rolling lockout for all you NRL Dream Team and NRL Super Coach nerds should have allowed you to make any last minute changes quite easily, but once again our Latest of Late Mail should help in any selections you make before the round begins.

The Postman has a few more NRL Dream Team and NRL Super Coach selections below... and reminds you that he said HOLD Jarryd Hayne and Greg Inglis two weeks ago.
@NRLTweet Player of the Year
Track live round votes via #NRLTweetPOTY

 Check out the Round 20 Leaderboard before it goes silent

Voting Allocation for Round 22 of the NRL is below.

NRL TIPPING PREVIEW + LATE MAIL
ROUND 22, 2013
Wednesday Odds Courtesy of Sportingbet | NRL LADDER
Friday 7:45pm at AAMI Park
STORM $1.48 v $2.72 RABBITOHS
FOOTYTAB: SOU +10.5
Tuesday Teams Analysed on NRL Injured List
@NRLTweet Player of the Year Award Voters:
| Warrick Nicolson @NRLTweet Matthew Duncan @mrpeninsula |
Track live round votes via #NRLTweetPOTY
@NRLTweet's PREDICTION:
These teams went at it back in Round 6 at full strength... now it looks like the Storm have a significant health advantage entering Round 22. Inglis is a chance but Sutton is definitely out (for up to a month) and that's a huge blow to the Rabbits. The Storm may yet miss Blair but they'll find a decent replacement somewhere... They might both be premiership contenders but the Storm won their game against 7th by 64 points, the Rabbits lost theirs against 13th by 18 points. Ouch. Go with the Storm but if the Rabbits do win - they dominate the middle and Reynolds' kicking game does all the damage. Storm by 6 points.
 LATEST OF LATE MAIL:
STORM: Blair has to be in some doubt after being carted off the field on the medicab against Canberra. He must pass a test on his neck to play. Will be interesting to see what Bellamy does if he is out - O'Neill missed last week with a hamstring strain but seems like the logical replacement. If O'Neill is not available young Young Tonumaipea may get a run if Proctor or Harris are not moved to the backs instead.
LATE UPDATE? Blair is out - O'Neill is in.
The Postman's DT/SC TIP: Cameron Smith remains the #1 DT captain choice... but he's no longer the SC one.
RABBITOHS: Will Inglis play? His coach says he'll be given every chance to - meaning we won't know til about 6:45pm Friday if he is or not. Farrell would make way with Merritt going to the wing. Despite the loss last week, expect the same forward squad with perhaps a positional switch before kick-off.
LATE UPDATE? Inglis is not playing. Everingham replaces Walker, Lima is also out while Tyrrell and Asotasi start and George Burgess goes to the bench.
The Postman's DT/SC TIP: Adam Reynolds will do a heck of a lot of general play kicking with Sutton out... good news for DT owners.
If you have a DT/SC question grab The Postman on Twitter @NRLTweet and I'll answer there.
Friday 7:45pm at Parramatta Stadium
EELS $1.65 v $2.30 TIGERS
FOOTYTAB: PAR +4.5
Tuesday Teams Analysed on NRL Injured List
@NRLTweet Player of the Year Award Voters:
| Nigel Wilbow @parramatters Matt Trodden @trods2906 |
Track live round votes via #NRLTweetPOTY
@NRLTweet's PREDICTION:
Friday Night's not such a great night for football after all... in fact, Jarryd Hayne's return and Benji Marshall's last few games are all that this has going for it - if that. No Robbie Farah or Aaron Woods for the Tigers... so it is really really hard to pick a winner. On one hand the Eels suck and on the other, the Tigers do as well. Hayne factor only reason I'm leaning Parra... and I feel dirty admitting that. Benji will never get a better chance to leave the Tigers fans with a good lasting memory... step up Benji. Eels by 4 points.
 LATEST OF LATE MAIL:
EELS: Hayne says he is a certain starter... but there's still a training session to get through before he is indeed on the team-sheet. Kelly should overcome his ankle injury and take his place.
LATE UPDATE? Clear weather for Sydney today means Hayne is going to play. Tonga, Radradra, Harrison are OUT, Mullaney, Toutai and O'Hanlon in.
The Postman's DT/SC TIP: Hold into Jarryd Hayne? Good decision... now hope his hammys hold up for your Finals run.
TIGERS: Farah will almost certainly miss this match, but Luani may be moved to the bench and Fulton starts at hooker allowing Murdoch Masila or even Sironen to start the game in the backrow.
LATE UPDATE? 1-17.
The Postman's DT/SC TIP: Say bye-bye to Aaron Woods... it was nice knowing you mate.
If you have a DT/SC question grab The Postman on Twitter @NRLTweet and I'll answer there.
Saturday 5:30pm at Allianz Stadium
ROOSTERS $1.18 v $5.15 RAIDERS
FOOTYTAB: CAN +10.5
Tuesday Teams Analysed on NRL Injured List
@NRLTweet Player of the Year Award Voters:
| Maria Tsialis @mtsialis Greg Delaney @gregdelaney84 |
Track live round votes via #NRLTweetPOTY
@NRLTweet's PREDICTION:
Believe it or not... Canberra are a real chance here. Yes the Roosters just crushed Penrith by 40 points last Friday and Canberra were crushed by 64 points on Sunday... but Canberra will bounce back. It's just a matter of by how much? Pride plays a big part in the NRL these days - especially with teams like Canberra who probably know they aren't better than the good teams (they certainly are not) but will back themselves to beat one or two of them every once in a while. That's the chance Canberra have... plus no SBW makes the Roosters a little more predictable... that is powerhouses down the middle thanks to Jake Friend's decision making and being willing to give their potent outside backs early ball. So really on second thought - Canberra are no chance if they let the Roosters play 'their game'. Want to beat the Roosters? Give Pearce and Maloney no time or space... which isn't easy when Easts' pack is creating so much of it rolling down the middle. Canberra will give them somewhat of a fight at some stage but the Roosters win by 12 points.
 LATEST OF LATE MAIL:
ROOSTERS: Looks set to be the 17 named on Tuesday... no, in fact O'Donnell will get a rest (due to the flu) with Moa starting and Arona joining the squad.
LATE UPDATE? O'Donnell out, Arona in.
The Postman's DT/SC TIP: James Maloney went nuts last week in both formats... he won't be as dynamic against Canberra but he's a good player to have for the stretch.
RAIDERS: Learoyd-Lahrs might be a late addition to the bench at either Shaun Berrigan or Paul Vaughan's expense. Also don't rule out a Mitchell Cornish début with McCrone moving to the bench... it's coming at some point - with Cornish playing NSW Cup more and more lately. Earl probably holds his wing spot for his combo with Ferguson on the right, while Wighton and Croker may alternate on the left edge. Robinson would miss out.
LATE UPDATE? 1-17.
The Postman's DT/SC TIP: Blake Ferguson, Shaun Fensom and Anthony Milford - the only 3 Raiders you should possibly have on your squad for the pointy end of the season.
If you have a DT/SC question grab The Postman on Twitter @NRLTweet and I'll answer there.
Saturday 7:30pm at Remondis Stadium
SHARKS $1.52 v $2.60 KNIGHTS
FOOTYTAB: NEW +8.5
Tuesday Teams Analysed on NRL Injured List
@NRLTweet Player of the Year Award Voters:
| Matt Vickers @mercurialmattyv Matt Spillane @devonhead |
Track live round votes via #NRLTweetPOTY
@NRLTweet's PREDICTION:
Good matchup of teams who can't win the comp... but could be nuisance value in September. Newcastle salvaged a valuable point against Brisbane to stay in 8th last week while the Sharks upset the Warriors in Auckland to be 6th. Given the 9th placed Titans and 10th placed Warriors play Canterbury and Manly this week - a win by Newcastle can open up a 3 point gap between them and those chasing teams. Whereas Cronulla are 4 points clear already and can keep themselves in a 1st week home final situation with a win. So enough to play for here in order for Saturday Night at The Tip to be worth the trip... so go on, make the Trip to the Tip! Sharks at home I guess... even money bet otherwise - especially if Kurt Gidley and Luke Lewis play. Cronulla by 4 points.
 LATEST OF LATE MAIL:
SHARKS: Luke Lewis needs season ending shoulder surgery as has been mentioned before but he wants to be part of a playoff run so this might be his return week in the centres for a groggy Pomeroy. Tupou may also return, while Ryan is a maybe for this or next week.
LATE UPDATE? Lewis is keen and Tupou is set to play as well. Ross is almost certaint to be dropped for Lewis with either Tagataese or Pomeroy making way for Tupou.
Lewis comes in for Ross. Tupou not back yet.
The Postman's DT/SC TIP: Paul Gallen is fit for the moment - so if you've been faithful or have a trade to make - you can't do much better if he stays fit.
KNIGHTS: Gidley wants to play and if he pulls up sweet from a week of running on his foot at training he could even start at halfback with either Roberts or Gower missing out entirely. Another option is Gidley to start at lock with Houston moving back to the bench where he has been effective of late. Mullen's knee is a concern but he is expected to play - as is McManus.
LATE UPDATE? Gidley is set to play and may kick goals well, so he could start at halfback with Robert or Gowers missing out as mentioned above. Alex McKinnon is playing NSW Cup - so might be back in the NRL within a fortnight. 
Gidley in for Gower.
The Postman's DT/SC TIP: Kurt Gidley might be back very shortly but he's been out so long he shouldn't be in your squad... don't go buying him either... well not yet.
If you have a DT/SC question grab The Postman on Twitter @NRLTweet and I'll answer there.
Sunday 2:00pm at Bluetongue Stadium
SEA EAGLES $1.40 v $3.05 WARRIORS
FOOTYTAB: WAR +10.5
Tuesday Teams Analysed on NRL Injured List
@NRLTweet Player of the Year Award Voters:
| Warrick Nicolson @NRLTweet Justin Davies @dragonpunk12 |
Track live round votes via #NRLTweetPOTY
@NRLTweet's PREDICTION:
Would have been extra tasty had the Warriors been smart and beaten Cronulla last week... instead they come to Gosford (not Brookvale) needing 2 points to stay alive in the Top 8 race. Not easy... but a little easier not being at Brookie. Manly saw Daly Cherry-Evans play his best game since Origin last week and Kieran Foran is on fire - everything says Manly deserve favouritism so stick with them... unless you really like the Warriors on the road with less pressure? Interesting game here... Manly by 8 points.
 LATEST OF LATE MAIL:
SEA EAGLES: Looking settled with DCE and Matai getting through the game last week okay after carrying injuries in. Symonds will come into the mix for a bench spot but right now it looks like Gower has it with Symonds nursing a thumb injury.
LATE UPDATE? Horo out, Hasson in.
The Postman's DT/SC TIP: Told you DCE was a must-have plenty of times this year... and for SC tragics - he cracked a 100 for the first time in forever last week.
WARRIORS: Will Ropati finally get recalled? Laumape hasn't finished the past two games with Peyroux getting a run late in the match but Elliott has spoken of how valuable Ropati is around the team so don't rule it out. Packer may travel.
LATE UPDATE? Ropati travelled as 18th man.
The Postman's DT/SC TIP: Shaun Johnson is plenty of coaches' point of difference in the halves... here's hoping for your sake he can deliver.
If you have a DT/SC question grab The Postman on Twitter @NRLTweet and I'll answer there.
Sunday 3:00pm at Suncorp Stadium
BRONCOS $1.36 v $3.25 DRAGONS
FOOTYTAB: STI +6.5
Tuesday Teams Analysed on NRL Injured List
@NRLTweet Player of the Year Award Voters:
| Ben Hoese @gunnermcdagget Matthew Duncan @mrpeninsula |
Track live round votes via #NRLTweetPOTY
@NRLTweet's PREDICTION:
If the Broncos swap Prince out for Wallace at five-eighth - they can make a playoff run. While Wallace is no world-beater he immediately upgrades the right side defence that Prince is letting down... he's trying but he just can't tackle anymore and that naturally is a real problem because he's targeted every set of six. Ben Hunt has been good the last two games but if Prince had stepped up like he needed to late in the game against the Knights - the Broncos are one extra point closer to the Top 8. Sitting on 19 points they have to basically win out to make the Finals. The Dragons have Josh Dugan being Josh Dugan - himself looking great but not really making the rest of the team much better (that's just an observation not a crack at Dugan - he's playing great individually at the moment)... and still shouldn't win this week. Don't get the Ben Creagh to prop move when you've got no edge backrowers any better than Creagh himself... and this week for example - Creagh on his normal left edge would terrorise Prince in Brisabne's right edge right? Broncos by 10 points.
 LATEST OF LATE MAIL:
BRONCOS: Tasi looks the most likely to get Dodds' spot in the final squad, although Anderson seems to be back in favour after a long stint in the QLD Cup. Wallace will continue to come off the bench despite Prince's defensively frailty.
LATE UPDATE? Maranta looks like making way for Kahu on the right wing... no it is rookie Jordan Drew. Yes... him.
The Postman's DT/SC TIP: Ben Hunt is going great - but DO NOT pick him up in DT/SC - it's fantasy fool's gold.
DRAGONS: They played Monday Night... Harrison named to return after missing MNF but Weyman and Stanley weren't after missing as well. Green could make way for Prior in the centres, while Price loves a pre-game forward shuffle more than anyone!
LATE UPDATE? Hey look - Josh Drinkwater sighting. Weyman also in, Harrison and Mathews out.
The Postman's DT/SC TIP: Josh Dugan scores points... and points and points. Shame he can't kick...
If you have a DT/SC question grab The Postman on Twitter @NRLTweet and I'll answer there.
Sunday 6:30pm at Centrebet Stadium
PANTHERS $2.60 v $1.52 COWBOYS
FOOTYTAB: PEN +2.5
Tuesday Teams Analysed on NRL Injured List
@NRLTweet Player of the Year Award Voters:
| Matt Spillane @devonhead Warrick Nicolson @NRLTweet |
Track live round votes via #NRLTweetPOTY
@NRLTweet's PREDICTION:
For whatever reason I like Penrith here. The Cowboys were up for their win over Souths but their track record in 2013 has been mainly down... Thurston is quality obviously but Lui and Bowen didn't do enough even in their big win at home to make me think they've turned the corner. If Bowen fires then North Queensland may well win but Penrith will aim up at home this week... call it a feeling. Panthers by 6 points.
 LATEST OF LATE MAIL:
PANTHERS: Coote is back in the mix... but Cleary has to decide at what position (if he plays at all). Either he drops a kid who will be a Panther next year in Moylan or supplant a guy who has been good for them this year (and is there next year) in John at five-eighth. Walsh looks safe despite being the one who isn't going to be around next year. McKendry needs medical clearance to play but would replace Masoe or Smith on the bench.
LATE UPDATE? Coote, McKendry and Manu - really surprising addition - come in for Ciraldo, Smith and Daniela.
The Postman's DT/SC TIP: Nothing overly fantasy relevant on the roster really...
COWBOYS: Thorby looks to be the travelling 18th man in an otherwise unchanged team.
LATE UPDATE? Thorby comes in for Taumalolo.
The Postman's DT/SC TIP: Johnathan Thurston could either win your DT/SC league or lose it... care to roll the dice?
If you have a DT/SC question grab The Postman on Twitter @NRLTweet and I'll answer there.
Monday 7:00pm at ANZ Stadium
BULLDOGS $1.17 v $5.25 TITANS
FOOTYTAB: GLD +10.5
Tuesday Teams Analysed on NRL Injured List
@NRLTweet Player of the Year Award Voters:
| Nigel Wilbow @parramatters Ben Hoese @gunnermcdagget |
Track live round votes via #NRLTweetPOTY
@NRLTweet's PREDICTION:
Canterbury beat the Dragons by 19 points but gee didn't St George Illawarra roll over once they got scared just a tiny bit by the Dogs? The Titans won't roll over like the Dragons did - so Canterbury will have work to do if they want to stay in 5th spot. Josh Morris at fullback was good and terrible - the kid can't pass or more to the point, doesn't look to pass and that's going to hurt the Dogs if Barba can't come back by the end of the year. But still - he's a better option than Perrett because he worries teams with his running game. The Titans need Albert Kelly back badly - Harrison is a stop gap at #6 that works against bad teams like the Tigers - and if he was playing I'd almost back the Titans on the road. But he isn't likely to make the trip - so Canterbury by 4 points.
 LATEST OF LATE MAIL:
BULLDOGS: The Dogs won't get Barba back until at least Round 24 everyone... Round 26 looks the most likely in fact. Morris to continue at #1 with Perrett to the wing. Jackson probably continues to start for Williams as well.
LATE UPDATE? Jackson/Kasiano start, Williams/Graham to the bench.
The Postman's DT/SC TIP: If you kept Trent Hodkinson... congrats, well done, whydidntthepostmangetonthehodkinsontrainfromthestationinthefirstplace?
TITANS: The long wait to Monday gives Zillman a chance of playing, he'd force Don or Dowling out of the backline. Kelly is still sore and unlikely to play this week. Bird's ankle should be okay. If Srama travels, he'll play.
LATE UPDATE? Zillman travelled... but won't play. James starts, Douglas to bench.
The Postman's DT/SC TIP: Aidan Sezer remains a points machine in DT... roll with him.
If you have a DT/SC question grab The Postman on Twitter @NRLTweet and I'll answer there.
What are your tips for Round 22? 
Jake Hauritz looks over the line in our Awesome Foursome Tipping Compettiion - have you taken any hints form him this year?
Let us know by commenting below or replying on Twitter.


@NRLTWEET's 2013 TIPPING RECORD 
TIPPING TOTAL AFTER 21 ROUNDS - 97/152 @ 63.8%
FOOTYTAB TOTAL AFTER 21 ROUNDS - 83/152 @ 54.6%
SPECIAL FRIED RICE involves each tipster taking a 'certainty' in a set order, with the tipster with the highest score at the end of the year literally winning a mountain of Special Fried Rice. The SFR Order rotates every week and is a fun way to put your rice where your mouth is.
ROUND 22 SELECTIONS | The Awesome Foursome
@NRLTweet
Warrick D. Nicolson, The NRL Tweet
TIPPING:
Storm Eels Roosters Sharks Sea Eagles Broncos Panthers Bulldogs
LW: 6/8 | SEASON: 97/152
FOOTYTAB:
SOU +10.5 PAR +4.5 SYD -10.5 NEW +8.5
WAR +10.5 BRI -6.5 PEN +2.5 GLD +10.5
LW: 4/8 | SEASON: 83/152
Special Fried Rice: BRONCOS over Dragons (Has 3rd Pick)
Season SFR: 15.5/21
CAN4 CBY3 SOU2 MEL1 CRO4 MAN3 SYD2 SYD1 SOU4 MEL3 NQL2 SOU1 MEL4 CRO3 CBY2 SOU1 SOU4 CBY3 CAN2 CBY1 SOU4 BRI3
TIPPING:
Storm Eels Raiders Knights Sea Eagles Broncos Cowboys Bulldogs
LW: 5/8 | SEASON: 83/152
FOOTYTAB:
MEL -10.5 PAR +4.5 CAN +10.5 NEW +8.5
MAN -10.5 BRI -6.5 NQL -2.5 CBY -10.5
LW: 5/8 | SEASON: 74/152
Special Fried Rice: STORM over Rabbitohs (Has 1st Pick)
Season SFR: 14/21
SOU2 SOU1 MAN4 PAR3 NQL2 MEL1 BRI4 WAR3 STI2 BRI1 NEW4 NEW3 CBY2 SOU1 MEL4 NEW3 SYD2 BRI1 WAR4 BRI3 MEL2 MEL1
@Horry37
Jake Hauritz, Channel 9 Darwin
TIPPING:
Storm Eels Roosters Sharks Sea Eagles Broncos Cowboys Bulldogs
LW: 7/8 | SEASON: 106/152
FOOTYTAB:
SOU +10.5 PAR +4.5 CAN +10.5 NEW +8.5
MAN -10.5 BRI -6.5 NQL -2.5 GLD +10.5
LW: 6/8 | SEASON: 80/152
Special Fried Rice: ROOSTERS over Raiders (Has 4th Pick)
Season SFR: 15/21
MEL1 BRI4 MEL3 CRO2 MEL1 CAN4 NQL3 MEL2 MEL1 CAN4 MAN3 CBY2 SYD1 BRI4 CAN3 MEL2 MEL1 MAN4 MAN3 SOU2 MAN1 SYD4
@MrDC
DC Chapman, League Lover
TIPPING:
Storm Tigers Roosters Sharks Sea Eagles Broncos Cowboys Bulldogs
LW: 5/8 | SEASON: 93/152
FOOTYTAB:
SOU +10.5 WTG -4.5 SYD -10.5 NEW +8.5
MAN -10.5 BRI -6.5 NQL -2.5 CBY -10.5
LW: 3/8 | SEASON: 65/152
Special Fried Rice: ROOSTERS over Raiders (Has 2nd Pick)
Season SFR: 14.5/21
NEW3 MAN2 CRO1 NEW4 SOU3 NEW2 MEL1 NEW4 BRI3 SOU2 SOU1 GLD4 PEN3 MEL2 SOU1 STI4 MAN3 PEN2 SOU1 MAN4 NEW3 SYD2
The NRL Injury List is updated regularly during each week of the season, making it an invaluable Fantasy and Tipping Tool alongside our Weekly NRL Previews once again.
Remember if you want game-specific Late Mail every week, then check out our Round Previews Every Wednesday and they are updated with all the very latest Late Mail on Friday.
Who will take Ben Barba's mantle as champion in the 4th Annual @NRLTweet Player of the Year Awards?

 The Prestigious Award is closing in on naming a new champion in 2013.
@NRLTweet Player of the Year Award Voters:
Warrick Nicolson @NRLTweet | Nigel Wilbow @parramatters
Justin Davies @dragonpunk12 | Greg Delaney @gregdelaney84
Matt Spillane @devonhead | Matt Trodden @trods2906
Matt Vickers @mercurialmattyv | Ben Hoese @gunnermcdagget
Adrian McMurray @adrmcm | Matthew Duncan @mrpeninsula
Maria Tsialis @mtsialis | Ben Jones @benwah87
Jake Hauritz @horry37

Review all of the voting results from 2012 right here

Remember you can track all the votes each week after each match in 2013 via the Twitter hashtag #nrltweetpoty
By Warrick D. Nicolson