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Thursday, 28 July 2011

NRL 2011 - Round 21 NRL Preview Tips Teams Predictions Late Mail Fantasy News Odds

ROUND 21 NRL PREVIEW - 2011 SEASON
The best NRL Preview on the net is back online with all the info you need to make an 'informed decision' in your Fantasy and Tipping Competitions.
Make sure you bookmark www.wdnicolson.com and compare your picks to the Podcast Panel's Tips every week. Download the Podcast and check back on Friday for the Latest Mail as it breaks.
NOT The Footy Show Episode 75
- Round 21 Preview Released July 27, 2011 -
Right Click Save Target As This Link if you don't have iTunes.
| We speak to former Manly and Canberra prop Mark Bryant about the demise of the Crusaders club in the UK Super League this week.  How big a deal is Petero Civoniceva moving to the Broncos? The Rugby League Week Players' Poll, NRL Captions take off and can players like Jarryd Hayne expect to be treated normally or do they realise they'll be targeted by idiots when out?
And to discuss this we've got regulars - Maria Tsialis, Nic McInerney and Dave Chapman joining Warrick Nicolson to dissect Rugby League.
Plus we Review Round 20 of the 2011 NRL Premiership, while giving you our Special Fried Rice selections and tips for Round 21.
TIPPING VIDEO PREVIEW -

SPECIAL FRIED RICE - ROUND 21
- Waz 10/20: Cowboys; Matt 16/20: Broncos; Dave 14/20: DragonsNic 16/20: Storm -
Note: The order in which Special Fried Rice (the game we guarantee that team will win) is chosen rotates - this week Matt had 1st choice, Dave 2nd, Nic 3rd and Waz 4th. So it isn't as easy as it sounds to tip correctly each week.
You can check out who the NOT The Footy Show Experts picked for the 2011 Premiership via this link.
NOT The Footy Show Podcast is available every Thursday - subscribe now on iTunes so you don't miss out.
Check out the Round 21 Tipping Preview below...
ROUND 21 MATCHUPS 
28/07 Odds are courtesy of Sportingbet Australia
$1.20 V $4.65 Fri @ Suncorp | LINE: CRO +12.5 GAME STATS
$1.48 V $2.70 Fri @ Bluetongue | LINE: WTG +6.0 GAME STATS
$1.87 V $1.95 Sat @ SFS | LINE: CBY +2.0 GAME STATS
$1.65 V $2.25 Sat @ Dairy Farmers | LINE: PEN +4.0 GAME STATS
$1.45 V $2.80 Sun @ Mt Smart | LINE: CAN +6.5 GAME STATS
$1.38 V $3.10 Sun @ AusGrid | LINE: GLD +8.0 GAME STATS
$1.16 V $5.25 Sun @ WIN Wollongong | LINE: SOU +14.5 GAME STATS
$3.10 V $1.38 Mon @ Parramatta | LINE: PAR +8.0 GAME STATS
NRL TWEET PLAYER OF THE YEAR VOTES
The Leaderboard has gone silent... we will however still be posting the Votes each week in the Results Blog.
THE NRL TWEET's ROUND 21 PREVIEW
Welcome to Season 2011... after an off-season that often feels longer (or shorter - depends if you like cricket or not) than it is - the footy is back. Here on www.wdnicolson.com we've got all the Tuesday Team News, Wednesday or Thursday Previews and Friday Late Mail (sourced from SMH and beyond) that will keep your Tipping and Fantasy habit well fed. This preview integrates our NRL Injured List - which if you haven't bookmarked by now - I suggest you do so.
FRIDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL
              V
7:45pm (Local) 29 July @ Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane. 
Coming In... 
5th BRONCOS TEAM RECORD 12-6 for 28 Points, +50.
11th SHARKS TEAM RECORD 7-11 for 18 Points, -61.
Head to Head Last 10...
BRONCOS 7 SHARKS 3 - Brisbane won 34-18 in Round 13 earlier this year and did it easily. The Sharks haven't won since Round 15 of 2009.
Tuesday Team News...
BRI: Hoffman, Beale, Reed, Hodges, Yow Yeh, Lockyer (c), Wallace, Hannant, McCullough, Anderson, Glenn, Thaiday, Parker. Bench: Gillett, Hunt, Hala, McGuire.
[Team Changes - The Broncoshave dropped  Mitchell Dodds from the team that was overrun by the Storm late and recalled another giant young prop in David Hala. Darren Lockyer picked up a head knock in the game but has been named to play. ]
CRO: Gardner, Williams, M Wright, Best, Stapleton, Graham, Townsend, Cordoba, Morris, Douglas, Tautai, Tupou, Smith (c). Bench: Snowden, Tagataese, Flanagan, Pomeroy, Mannah.
[Team Changes - The Sharks didn't bother to name Paul Gallen this week - which meant he was never any chance to play against the Knights last weekend. That being said he might still be some hope for the trip to Brisbane. Nathan Gardner has recovered from a head knock and Kade Snowden's shoulder injury was just a stinger. Matthew Wright returns from a neck injury to displace Ben Pomeroy in the centres. Taulima Tautai keeps his starting spot in the backrow. ]
Wednesday Game Preview...
To find out the Panel's tips and why they are tipping them - listen to the Podcast or watch the Tipping Video.
Tipping + Fantasy Late Mail... 
SMH and Other Late Mail 29/07 - There is a strong chance Paul Gallen will play for Cronulla after travelling with the side to Brisbane. Darren Lockyer (hammy) is expected to play after training all week. Latest... Paul Gallen remains a strong chance to play - roll the dice if he's in your fantasy team. Kade Snowden's shoulder shouldn't keep him out. DT reports Gallen won't play (at 12pm) and Tyson Frizell will make his NRL debut.
The NRL Tweet's Tip... 
BRONCOS To Win By 14 Points.
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FRIDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL
              V
7:45pm (Local) 29 July @ Bluetongue Stadium, Gosford.
Coming In... 
2nd SEA EAGLES TEAM RECORD 14-4 for 32 Points, +159.
7th TIGERS TEAM RECORD 9-9 for 22 Points, +15.
Head to Head Last 10...
SEA EAGLES 6 TIGERS 4 - Manly won a high scoring clash at Bluetongue last season 38-20 but the Tigers have won 2 of the last 3... Manly though has won 6 of the last 8.
Tuesday Team News...
MAN: B Stewart, Robertson, Lyon (c), Matai, Hopoate, K Foran, Cherry-Evans, King (c), Ballin, Kite, Watmough, Galuvao, G Stewart. Bench: Mauro, Buhrer, Rodney, Rose, Robinson, Lussick.
[Team Changes - Manly have named Anthony Watmough to return from a shoulder injury in the backrow and Shane Rodney goes back to the bench. Michael Robertson is also back on the wing for Michael Oldfield, while Tim Robinson is the new face on an extended bench. ]
WTG: Moltzen, Ryan, Ayshford, Lawrence, Utai, Marshall, Lui, Gibbs, Farah (c), Galloway, Fulton, Ellis, Heighington. Bench: McKinnon, Payten, Brown, Woods, Groat.
[Team Changes - The Tigers have lost winger Lote Tuqiri again - just a week after getting him back from a long layoff (again) and have named Matt Utai to replace him. Andrew Fifita is omitted for a second straight week, while Todd Payten and Wade McKinnon are back on the bench with youngster Matt Groat. ]
Wednesday Game Preview...
To find out the Panel's tips and why they are tipping them - listen to the Podcast or watch the Tipping Video.
Tipping + Fantasy Late Mail... 
SMH and Other Late Mail 29/07 - The Tigers will give Todd Payten as long as possible to be right and if he is - Matt Groat will probably make way. Anthony Watmough is expected to play as is Michael Robertson after they missed last week. Latest... Wade McKinnon has been ruled out with a rib complaint, meaning Andrew Fifita may get a late reprieve. The Sea Eagles should have Watmough and Robertson.
The NRL Tweet's Tip... 
SEA EAGLES To Win By 8 Points.
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SATURDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL
              V
5:35pm (Local) 30 July @ Sydney Football Stadium, Sydney.
Coming In... 
15th ROOSTERS TEAM RECORD 5-13 for 14 Points, -111.
10th BULLDOGS TEAM RECORD 8-10 for 20 Points, -64.
Head to Head Last 10...
ROOSTERS 4 BULLDOGS 6 - Canterbury won 24-20 in Round 3 when they were in form and have actually won 3 of the last four since 2009.
Tuesday Team News...
SYD: Minichiello, Perrett, Linnett, Kenny-Dowall, Leilua, T Carney, Pearce, Ryles, Friend, Myles, Anasta (c), Guerra, Nu'uausala. Bench: Mitchell, Waerea-Hargreaves, Takairangi, Arona, Symonds.
[Team Changes - The Roosters have doubt surrounding the availability of Frank-Paul Nu'uausala after he decided to challenge a one week suspension at the Judiciary - his fate will be decided Wednesday night. Kane Linnett is named despite a knee injury, while Tom Symonds and Tinirau Arona come in for the omitted Mose Masoe. ]
CBY: Barba, Turner, Lafai, Idris, Wright, Roberts, Hodkinson, Tolman, Romelo, Kasiano, Pritchard, Ryan (c), Halatau. Bench: Eastwood, Armit, Payne, Reynolds.
[Team Changes - The Bulldogs have lost David Stagg to an ankle injury and Corey Payne comes back from a week in the NSW Cup to replace him on the bench. Martin Taupau is also out for the rest of the season with an ankle injury and Chris Armit gets another chance in the top grade. The big news is the retention of Tim Lafai ahead of Josh Morris - who promptly scored a hat-trick in his first game in the NSW Cup after being dropped. ]
Wednesday Game Preview...
To find out the Panel's tips and why they are tipping them - listen to the Podcast or watch the Tipping Video.
Tipping + Fantasy Late Mail... 
SMH and Other Late Mail 29/07 - Frank-Paul Nu'uausala was rubbed out for two weeks after unsuccessfully contesting a dangerous tackle charge and Tom Symonds will now get a run. Latest... Kane Linnett is still no certainty with Phil Graham the player most likely on standby.
The NRL Tweet's Tip... 
ROOSTERS To Win By 4 Points.
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SATURDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL
              V
7:35pm (Local) 30 July @ Dairy Farmers Stadium, Townsville
Coming In... 
4th COWBOYS TEAM RECORD 12-6 for 28 Points, +72.
9th PANTHERS TEAM RECORD 8-10 for 20 Points, -8.
Head to Head Last 10...
COWBOYS 4 PANTHERS 6 - The Panthers have had the wood over the Cowboys recently, winning 4 of the last 5 games since 2008 and 30-20 in Penrith in Round 16.
Tuesday Team News...
NQL: Bowen, Graham, Tate. Tonga, Fai-Fai Loa, Thompson, Jones, Scott (c), Payne, A Sims, Cooper, T Sims, Johnson. Bench: Segeyaro, Hall, Paterson, Tamou, L Ah Mau, .
[Team Changes - The Cowboys added Leeson Ah Mau to their extended bench for the visit from the Panthers in their only change. Scott Bolton and Michael Bani will return via the QLD Cup for the Northern Pride. Johnathan Thurston is still at least 2 weeks away. ]
PEN: Simmons, Walker, Jennings, Tighe, Purtell, Seijka, Walsh, Grant, Kingston, Civoniceva (c), Waterhouse, Plum, Lewis. Bench: McKendry, Weston, Smith, Bell.
[Team Changes - The Panthers have lost Lachlan Coote for a couple of weeks with a leg injury and have moved David Simmons to fullback as cover. Ryan Walker comes onto the wing and with Travis Burns also hurt, Harry Seijka gets his chance at five-eighth. Luke Lewis has been named t play but is probably no better than a 50/50 prospect at this stage. Nafe Seluini has been dropped. ]
Wednesday Game Preview...
To find out the Panel's tips and why they are tipping them - listen to the Podcast or watch the Tipping Video.
Tipping + Fantasy Late Mail... 
SMH and Other Late Mail 29/07 - The Cowboys have Scott Bolton coming back from injury in the QLD Cup but could be a roughie here. The Panthers will likely take Luke Lewis to Townsville but he is no certainty to play. Latest... Luke Lewis has until today (Friday) to prove his fitness (passed a fitness test will travel). Johnathan Thurston is running but not expected to return until next week at the earliest.
The NRL Tweet's Tip... 
COWBOYS To Win By 7 Points.
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SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOOTBALL
              V
2:05pm (Local) 31 July @ Mt Smart Stadium, Auckland.
Coming In... 
6th WARRIORS TEAM RECORD 10-8 for 24 Points, +63.
13th RAIDERS TEAM RECORD 6-12 for 16 Points, -97.
Head to Head Last 10...
WARRIORS 5 RAIDERS 5 - Canberra won 23-16 in Round 8 of 2010 but neither team has really held any sort of advantage since 2004.
Tuesday Team News...
WAR: Locke, Tupou, Moon, Berrigan, Vatuvei, Maloney, Johnson, Packer, Heremaia, Lillyman, Mateo, Mannering (c), Luck. Bench: Godinet, Sam Rapira, Matulino, Taylor.
[Team Changes - The Warriors will be without utility Lance Hohaia for a second week due to a knee injury, allowing Pita Godinet to get another chance on the bench. Feleti Mateo and Jacob Lillyman are listed to start but don't be surprised if Elijah Taylor and Ben Matulino start in their place again. ]
CAN: Dugan, Ferguson, Croker, Thompson, Vidot, McCrone, Williams, White, Tongue (c), Tilse, Papalii, Harrison, Fensom. Bench: Buttriss, Miller, Galea, Mataora, Picker.
[Team Changes - Canberra kept their incredible winning run over the Dragons going and in return David Furner has kept the 16 of the 17 that won and added Joe Picker and Josh Miller to the bench as cover for the loss of Trevor Thurling (Achilles). Joel Thompson is expected to overcome a head knock to play, while Jarrod Croker seemed fine in his comeback from a back injury. As did Josh Papalii who continues to start for the Raiders despite hurting his groin just a few weeks ago. ]
Wednesday Game Preview...
To find out the Panel's tips and why they are tipping them - listen to the Podcast or watch the Tipping Video.
Tipping + Fantasy Late Mail... 
SMH and Other Late Mail 29/07 - The Raiders have trained this week without Joel Thompson who is suffering headaches after a head knock on Monday, Danny Galea would likely start for him and there is a chance David Shillington might make the trip to Auckland after completing a training session this week. Latest... David Shillington is expected to travel to Auckland and play Sunday. The Warriors are fine.
The NRL Tweet's Tip... 
WARRIORS To Win By 8 Points.
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SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOOTBALL
              V
2:05pm (Local) 31 July @ AusGrid Stadium, Newcastle.
Coming In... 
8th KNIGHTS TEAM RECORD 9-9 for 22 Points, -5.
16th TITANS TEAM RECORD 4-14 for 12 Points, -175.
Head to Head Last 10...
KNIGHTS 4 TITANS 3 - The teams split their two games in 2010 - the Knights won 24-16 on the Gold Coast and the Titans won 38-36 in Newcastle.
Tuesday Team News...
NEW: Gidley (c), McManus, Sa'u, Lulia, Uate, Stig, Mullen, Tuimavave, De Gois, Kaufusi, Houston, Costigan, Edwards. Bench: Hilder, Taufua, Ciraldo, Tetevano, Karawana.
[Team Changes - The Knights have listed Neville Costigan and Evarn Tuimavave to return from injury and have also named Jarrod Mullen despite hurting his pectoral again last week. Rookie Zane Tetevano and Marvin Karawana hold their spots on the bench. ]
GLD: Rankin, Peyroux, Zillman, Toopi, Mead, Henry, Prince (c), Bailey, Srama, Laffranchi, Thompson, Minichiello, Bird. Bench: White, Lawrence, O'Dwyer, Campbell.
[Team Changes - The Titans won't have Ashley Harrison back but have dropped Luke Capewell and replaced him with Jordan Rankin at fullback. Steve Michaels is also out with concussion and Dominique Peyroux will make his NRL debut on the wing]
Wednesday Game Preview...
To find out the Panel's tips and why they are tipping them - listen to the Podcast or watch the Tipping Video.
Tipping + Fantasy Late Mail... 
SMH and Other Late Mail 29/07 - The Knights are expected to rule Jarrod Mullen out by the weekend. Tyrone Roberts or Peter Mata'utia would come in if he is out. Latest... Is this the opening the Titans have been looking for? Not only is Jarrod Mullen long odds to play but Ryan Stig has a groin problem and although he'l play Kurt Gidley's hamstring is not 100%. Evarn Tuimavave has a virus but should play. Scott Prince has a cold but should play.
The NRL Tweet's Tip... 
KNIGHTS To Win By 6 Points.
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SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOOTBALL
              V
3:05pm (Local) 31 July @ WIN Stadium, Wollongong.
Coming In... 
3rd DRAGONS TEAM RECORD 12-5-1 for 29 Points, +140.
12th RABBITOHS TEAM RECORD 7-11 for 18 Points, -94.
Head to Head Last 10...
DRAGONS 8 RABBITOHS 2 - The Dragons won 16-0 in Round 6 at ANZ Stadium and have had South Sydney's measure of late.
Tuesday Team News...
STI: Boyd, Morris, Gasnier, Cooper, Nightingale, Soward, Hornby (c), Hunt, Fien, Weyman, Scott, Creagh, Prior. Bench: Cuthbertson, Green, Merrin, Rein, Stanley.
[Team Changes - The Dragons get their skipper and halfback Ben Hornby back from a hand injury which sees Nathan Fien go back to hooker and Mitch Rein join Kyle Stanley on the bench. Trent Merrin also moves to the bench with Dan Hunt returning, as does Jon Green on the bench. Jack De Belin and David Gower are omitted. ]
SOU: Wesser, Merritt, Farrell, Inglis, McQueen, Sutton, Sandow, Ross, Luke, McPherson, Clark, Pettybourne, Crocker (c). Bench: L Burgess, Tyrrell, Lowe, Peats, Corrigan.
[Team Changes - The Bunnies have named skipper Michael Crocker to return from a one week rest due to a head knock and he has forced Ben Lowe back to the bench. Shaune Corrigan is once again listed on an extended bench as cover in the outside backs. Otherwise there are no changes from the team that got pummelled 48-16 by the Warriors. ]
Wednesday Game Preview...
To find out the Panel's tips and why they are tipping them - listen to the Podcast or watch the Tipping Video.
Tipping + Fantasy Late Mail... 
SMH and Other Late Mail 29/07 - The Dragons expect Ben Hornby, Dan Hunt and Jon Green to play, while Jamie Soward has had the flu this week. The Bunnies hope to get Michael Crocker back from a concussion this week. Latest... All suspect Dragons should play and the Bunnies expect Crocker to as well.
The NRL Tweet's Tip... 
DRAGONS To Win By 20 Points.
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MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL
              V
7:05pm (Local) 1 August @ Parramatta Stadium, Parramatta.
Coming In... 
14th EELS TEAM RECORD 5-12-1 for 15 Points, -93.
1st STORM TEAM RECORD 15-3 for 34 Points, +209.
Head to Head Last 10...
STORM 6 EELS 4 - Melbourne thrashed Parramatta 38-0 in Round 5 in Melbourne but Parramatta had won 3 of the previous 4 before that... however the game they lost during that period was the 2009 Grand Final.
Tuesday Team News...
PAR: Burt, Uaisele, Horo, Smith, Atkins, Hayne, Robson, Mannah, Keating, MoiMoi, Hindmarsh (c), Lasalo, Maitua. Bench: McGuire, Shackleton, Allgood, O'Hanlon.
[Team Changes - Jeff Robson holds the halfback job after his return on Friday and relegates Casey McGuire to the bench. Reni Maitua will start at lock with Justin Horo replacing Ryan Morgan once again at centre. Pat O'Hanlon remains on the bench despite barely being used again last week. ]
MEL: Slater, Duffie, Nielsen, M Blair, O'Neill, Widdop, Cronk, Bromwich, Smith (c), Norrie, A Blair, Manu, Proctor. Bench: Kostjasyn, Hinchcliffe, Woolnough, Lowe.
[Team Changes - The Storm will trot out the same 16 of the 17 man squad that beat the Broncos - with Matt Duffie's return from a sternum injury for Beau Champion on the wing the only change. But as always with Melbourne - don't discount a late change. ]
Wednesday Game Preview...
To find out the Panel's tips and why they are tipping them - listen to the Podcast or watch the Tipping Video.
Tipping + Fantasy Late Mail... 
SMH and Other Late Mail 29/07 - The Storm might carry Beau Champion to Sydney as cover for Matt Duffie (sternum) after the flanker missed last Friday's game. Latest... Shane Shackleton has a calf issue but should play.
The NRL Tweet's Tip... 
STORM To Win By 12 Points.
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ROUND 21 BYES
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FANTASY LEAGUE SCORE UPDATE
PHASE THREE LEADERBOARD AVAILABLE DURING ROUND 21
Apologies for the delay
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2011 TIPPING TIPS:
This year not only do you get The NRL Tweet's Tips each week but the whole NOT The Footy Show team will have their picks listed by Thursday so you can back a smoky or a favourite by seeing who we all picked (or didn't pick). Truthfully there is no perfect formula but here's a vital tip to help you cope with the copious amounts of NRL Tipping Comp's
@NRLTWEET's 2011 TIPPING RECORD 
TOTAL AFTER 20 ROUNDS - 83/144 @ 57.3%
The NRL Tweet finished with 125 correct tips from 192 Games in 2010 at a strike rate of 65%.

ROUND 21 SELECTIONS
Warrick Nicolson, The NRL Tweet + NTFS Host
Broncos
Sea Eagles
Roosters
Cowboys
Warriors
Knights
Dragons
Storm
| SEASON 83/144
Nic McInerney, NTFS Co-Host
Broncos
Sea Eagles
Roosters
Cowboys
Warriors
Knights
Dragons
Storm
| SEASON 96/144
Broncos
Sea Eagles
Roosters
Cowboys
Warriors
Knights
Dragons
Eels
| SEASON 86/144
Dave Chapman, NTFS Co-Host
Broncos
Sea Eagles
Bulldogs
Cowboys
Warriors
Knights
Dragons
Storm
| SEASON 91/144
Maria Tsialis, Big League Magazine
Broncos
Sea Eagles
Bulldogs
Cowboys
Warriors
Titans
Dragons
Storm
| SEASON 80/144
Andy Raymond, Fox Sports Commentator
Broncos
Sea Eagles
Bulldogs
Cowboys
Warriors
Titans
Dragons
Eels
| SEASON 76/144
Eyes, The Kid Who Sees All
To Come...
| SEASON 70/144
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]-[ There are just 6 weeks left in NOT The Footy Show's Tipping Competition and the outright winner walks away with an Official Steeden Match ball.
TIPS DONE, GO OUT AND ENJOY THE FOOTY

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