ROUND 14 NRL PREVIEW - 2011 SEASON
The best NRL Preview on the net is back online with all the info you need to make an 'informed decision' in your Fantasy and Tipping Competitions.Make sure you bookmark www.wdnicolson.com and compare your picks to the Podcast Panel's Tips every week. Download the Podcast and check back on Friday for the Latest Mail as it breaks.
- Waz 7/13: Dragons, Matt 11/13: Warriors, Dave 8/13: Sea Eagles; Nic 11/13: Roosters -
Note: The order in which Special Fried Rice (the game we guarantee that team will win) is chosen rotates - this week Dave had 1st choice, Nic 2nd, Waz 3rd and Matt 4th. So it isn't as easy as it sounds to tip correctly each week.
You can check out who the NOT The Footy Show Experts picked for the 2011 Premiership via this link.NOT The Footy Show Podcast is available every Thursday - subscribe now on iTunes so you don't miss out.
09/06 Odds are courtesy of Sportingbet Australia
$1.83 V $1.97 
Fri @ WIN Jubilee | LINE: EVEN
$1.16 V $5.25 
Sat @ Brookvale | LINE: NQL +14.5
$1.91 V $1.91 
Sun @ Suncorp | LINE: EVEN
$1.59 V $2.40 
Sun @ Mt Smart | LINE: WTG +4.5
$1.75 V $2.10 
Mon @ AAMI | LINE: SYD +2.0
$2.30 V $1.63 
Wed @ ANZ | LINE: NSW +4.0
THE NRL TWEET's ROUND 14 PREVIEW
Welcome to Season 2011... after an off-season that often feels longer (or shorter - depends if you like cricket or not) than it is - the footy is back. Here on www.wdnicolson.com we've got all the Tuesday Team News, Wednesday Previews and Friday Late Mail (sourced from SMH and beyond) that will keep your Tipping and Fantasy habit well fed. This preview integrates our NRL Injured List - which if you haven't bookmarked by now - I suggest you do so.
FRIDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL
Coming In...
1st DRAGONS TEAM RECORD 10-1-1 for 23 Points, +122.
15th TITANS TEAM RECORD 3-9 for 8 Points, -98.
Head to Head Last 10...
DRAGONS 7 TITANS 2 - The Dragons won the first 5 games between the clubs but the Titans have split the last 4 games since Round 13, 2009. The Dragons won 25-16 in Round 1, 2011.
Tuesday Team News...
STI: Nightingale, Tagive, McKinnon, Prior, Simmonds, Fien, Hornby (c), Hunt, Young, Weyman, Bosden, Greenfield, Cuthbertson. Bench: Green, Gower, Penese, Marketo, Rein.[Team Changes - The Dragons have Boyd, Gasnier, Soward, Merrin and Creagh on Origin duty, while Brett Morris and Matt Cooper are injured. As a result the new faces are Alex McKinnon at centre, Reece Simmonds on the wing, Jack Bosden and Michael Greenfield in the second row and David Gower, Daniel Penese and Jake Marketo on the bench. Jason Nightingale goes to fullback and Nathan Fien to five-eighth in the more significant positional changes. ]
GLD: Zillman, Michaels, Toopi, Tomane, Mead, Campbell, Prince (c), Bailey, Srama, Henderson, Laffranchi, Minichiello, O'Dwyer. Bench: White, James, Thompson, Ridge, Lawrence.
[Team Changes - The Titans will miss Ashley Harrison and Greg Bird to Origin duty but get Anthony Laffranchi back from injury which is a huge boost. Preston Campbell is named at five-eighth and Joseph Tomane comes in for Bodene Thompson in the centres - the latter moves to the bench. Luke O'Dwyer starts at lock. Prop Brenton Lawrence is the new face on an extended bench, while Sam Tagataese is dropped. ]
Rewind 12 months and a Titans team featuring Prince, Campbell, Bailey, Laffranchi and Zillman would be dead certainties to beat a Dragons side that doesn't have Boyd, Soward, Gasnier, Cooper, Morris, Scott or Creagh. But this is 2011 and the Titans are terrible, they can't score points and their error rate has gone through the roof. The Dragons are at home and still have some very handy footballers so I'm sticking with the team leading the Minor Premiership by 3 points after 13 Rounds. But for the Gold Coast's sake - I hope I'm wrong.
Tipping + Fantasy Late Mail...
SMH and Other Late Mail 10/06 - Two injured Dragons - Brett Morris and Kyle Stanley trained lightly on Thursday but are extremely long odds to play this week. There is speculation Will Matthews is the 18th man ahead of Brenton Lawrence who was named on Tuesday. Luke Bailey should play.
The NRL Tweet's Tip...
DRAGONS To Win By 4 Points.|-| |-| |-|
SATURDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL
Coming In...
3rd SEA EAGLES TEAM RECORD 9-3 for 20 Points, +113.
4th COWBOYS TEAM RECORD 9-3 for 20 Points, +84.
Head to Head Last 10...
SEA EAGLES 4 COWBOYS 6 - The Cowboys won 22-20 in controversial circumstances in Round 8, while Manly have won 3 of the last 5 since the semis of 2007.
Tuesday Team News...
MAN: B Stewart, D Williams, Lyon (c), Matai, Oldfield, K Foran, Cherry-Evans, King (c), Ballin, Rose, T Williams, Galuvao, G Stewart. Bench: Mauro, Buhrer, Robinson, Lussick, Harrison.
[Team Changes - Brent Kite is still out with a rib injury and William Hopoate and Anthony Watmough are in the NSW team. Tony Williams holds his starting spot in the second row for Watmough and impressive rookie Michael Oldfield is on the wing for Hopoate, Darcy Lussick and Daniel Harrison are the new faces on the bench. ]
NQL: Bowen, Graham, Winterstein, Cooper, Fai-Fai Loa, Thompson, Morgan, A Sims, Payne (c), Tamou, T Sims, Hall, Johnson. Bench: Segeyaro, Jones, Bolton, L Ah Mau.
[Team Changes - Just two changes for the Cowboys and they are significant. Johnathan Thurston and Matthew Scott will play for QLD and Michael Morgan goes to halfback, Ashton Sims starts at prop and James Segeyaro and Ben Jones join the bench. ]
What a game this would be if it wasn't scheduled on a weekend that is killed by Origin duty. Take Matt Scott and Johnathan Thurston out of any team and they'll be missed... the Sea Eagles lose Anthony Watmough and Will Hopoate but still have a few game breakers that - if Manly's forwards hold their own - means the Sea Eagles should be too good on Saturday Night. That being said - don't be shocked if the Cowboys find a way to win based off the self belief they've found again in 2011.
Tipping + Fantasy Late Mail...
SMH and Other Late Mail 10/06 - The Sea Eagles will choose between Darcy Lussick and Daniel Harrison for their final bench spot, while Jason Taumalolo or Will Tupou will be 18th man for the Cowboys.
The NRL Tweet's Tip...
SEA EAGLES To Win By 12 Points.|-| |-| |-|
SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOOTBALL
Coming In...
5th BRONCOS TEAM RECORD 8-4 for 18 Points, +42.
16th RAIDERS TEAM RECORD 3-9 for 8 Points, -100.
Head to Head Last 10...
BRONCOS 5 RAIDERS 5 - Even stevens in the last 10 games but Brisbane won 20-4 in Round 2 earlier this year in Canberra.
Tuesday Team News...
BRI: Hoffman, Gagai, Copley, Beale, Moylan, Norman, Wallace, Kenny, McCullough, Anderson, Glenn (c), Carlaw, Reed. Bench: Baptiste, Lui, Dodds, Hala.
[Team Changes - The Broncos lose Lockyer, Thaiday, Hannant, Yow Yeh and Parker to Origin and hand Shea Moylan, Dane Gagai, Corey Norman, Nick Kenny and Dunamis Lui another chance at First Grade. Significantly young second rower Alex Glenn has been handed the captaincy, while Jack Reed moves from centre to lock. ]
CAN: Massey, Stuart, Ferguson, Croker, Robinson, McCrone, Williams, Tilse, Tongue (c), White, Picker, Harrison, Fensom. Bench: Buttriss, Miller, Learoyd-Lahrs, Shillington, Papalii.
[Team Changes - Canberra lost Terry Campese, Joel Thompson and Josh Dugan to medium term injuries in the loss to the Cowboys. Although they get David Shillington back from injury, the team has been forced to move Blake Ferguson to the centres for Thompson, bring James Stuart onto the wing and pick young Nathan Massey at fullback. ]
This game reminds me a lot of when South Sydney went up to Brisbane to face a star-less Broncos team and got man-handled at Suncorp. I tipped the Bunnies that day and it still haunts me. As a result I'm tipping Brisbane at home and it's not like the Raiders are going well or anything...
Tipping + Fantasy Late Mail...
SMH and Other Late Mail 10/06 - The Broncos had a welcome sight at training with Justin Hodges running... but it's a big gamble if he plays the first week back he can run. Still - don't rule it out. Shea Moylan would make way. Canberra will have David Shillington available, as is Josh Hoffman for the Broncos after he suffered a cork in last week's win over Cronulla.
The NRL Tweet's Tip...
BRONCOS To Win By 7 Points.|-| |-| |-|
SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOOTBALL
Coming In...
6th WARRIORS TEAM RECORD 7-5 for 16 Points, +23.
7th TIGERS TEAM RECORD 6-6 for 14 Points, +18.
Head to Head Last 10...
WARRIORS 6 TIGERS 4 - The Tigers won 20-12 in Round 2 earlier this year and in Round 12 last year but the Warriors had won 6 of the previous 7 before that.
Tuesday Team News...
WAR: Locke, Inu, Brown, Mannering (c), Vatuvei, Maloney, Johnson, Packer, Berrigan, Lillyman, Mateo, Taylor, Luck. Bench: Hohaia, Latimore, Lousi, Matulino, Steve Rapira.[Team Changes - The Warriors lose Aaron Heremaia to a hand injury but replace him with Shaun Berrigan at hooker and get Lance Hohaia back from a rib injury on the bench. Sione Lousi is added to the bench with Steve Rapira unlikely to play due to a wrist injury. QLD Origin 2 18th man Jacob Lillyman will play, while Shaun Johnson gets another crack at the halfback job. ]
WTG: McKinnon, Tuqiri, Ayshford, Moltzen, Brown, Marshall, Lui, Gibbs, Farah (c), Galloway, Dwyer, Ellis, Heighington. Bench: Ryan, Fulton, Woods, Fifita, A Schirnack.[Team Changes - The Tigers lost Lote Tuqiri as soon as they got him back as a leg injury ended his comeback on Monday after just 5 minutes and while Tuqiri has been named to play the Warriors don't expect him to play. Youngster Tim Simona may yet play again after a promising debut or Beau Ryan could find himself on the wing again if Wade McKinnon recovers from his hamstring strain in time. Alan Schirnack is the new face on the bench for the trip to Auckland, while Bryce Gibbs who was good off the bench against Newcastle starts for Aaron Woods. ]
We get to see both teams play without any representative drain but the Tigers are still missing a few key players through injury. The Warriors didn't play poorly in their loss to the Roosters, while the Tigers were not great in their win over the Knights. Take the home team, especially if the conditions are greasy which might hurt the Tigers who have been poor with their ball control in recent weeks. Warriors for me.
Tipping + Fantasy Late Mail...
SMH and Other Late Mail 10/06 - The Tigers won't have Lote Tuqiri for a month despite naming him on Tuesday. Alan Schirnack comes into the side and Beau Ryan will likely start on the wing. Rookie centre Tim Simona may still yet come into the mix as he will travel with the Toyota Cup side. The Warriors should be 1-17 with Steve Rapira unlikely to play with a wrist injury and Elijah Taylor overcoming shoulder soreness.
The NRL Tweet's Tip...
WARRIORS To Win By 2 Points.|-| |-| |-|
MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL
Coming In...
2nd STORM TEAM RECORD 9-3 for 20 Points, +120.
13th ROOSTERS TEAM RECORD 4-8 for 10 Points, -60.
Head to Head Last 10...
ROOSTERS 3 STORM 7 - The Roosters waltzed into AAMI Park last year and crushed the Storm 38-6 in Round 14 but it has generally been all Melbourne since 2005.
Tuesday Team News...
MEL: O'Neill, Waqa, Champion, M Blair, Quinn, Widdop, Kostjasyn, Bromwich, Hinchcliffe, Norrie, A Blair (c), Proctor, Lowrie. Bench: Vea, Manu, Woolnough, Lowe.
[Team Changes - State of Origin reps Slater, Smith, Cronk and Nielsen are out, with Todd Lowrie, Beau Champion, Anthony Quinn, and Atelea Vea coming into the squad. Justin O'Neill goes to fullback, while Rory Kostjasyn is at halfback. Ryan Hinchcliffe goes to hooker. ]
SYD: Pritchard, Perrett, J Carney, Mataka, Leilua, Anasta (c), T Carney, Ryles, Friend, Nu'uausala, Symonds, Cordner, Guerra. Bench: Waerea-Hargreaves, Arona, Riddell, Takairangi.
[Team Changes - The Roosters lost Shaun Kenny-Dowall to an ankle injury and Nate Myles, Mitchell Pearce and Anthony Minichiello are on Origin duty. Sam Perrett returns from injury on the wing with Rhys Pritchard named at fullback. Willie Mataka comes in at centre for Kenny-Dowall. Boyd Cordner debuted last week and gets a start at lock. Mark Riddell returns from the flu and Brad Takairangi gets another cup of coffee in First Grade on the bench. ]
Well we will get a good look at just how important the Terrific Trio of Cronk, Smith and Slater are to the Storm style on Monday as all three are missing through Origin duty. The Roosters won't have Minichiello, Pearce or Myles but still have Todd Carney and Braith Anasta and a decent front row so I'll go with the Roosters on the road v the star depleted Storm.
Tipping + Fantasy Late Mail...
SMH and Other Late Mail 10/06 - The Roosters will test the fitness of winger Sam Perrett on the weekend before clearing him for Monday Night. The Storm won't confirm their team til Monday but Beau Champion is expected to make his comeback from a shoulder injury.
The NRL Tweet's Tip...
ROOSTERS To Win By 10 Points.|-| |-| |-|
WEDNESDAY - STATE OF ORIGIN FOOTBALL
V
8:05pm (Local) 15 June @ ANZ Stadium, Sydney.
QLD TEAM RECORD 48 Games Won, 15 Series Wins, 170 Players Used.
NSW TEAM RECORD 41 Games Won, 12 Series Wins, 239 Players Used.
Stats courtesy of the great website RUGBYLEAGUEPROJECT.ORG
MAROONS 8 BLUES 2 - The Maroons won the 2010 Series 3-0 and have won 8 of the last 9 games dating back to Game 2 of the 2008 Series. The Blues are therefore continue to struggle big time...
Tuesday Team News...
Tuesday Team News...
QLD: Slater, Boyd, Nielsen, Inglis, Yow Yeh, Lockyer (c), Thurston, Scott, Smith, Civoniceva, Myles, Thaiday, Harrison. Bench: Cronk, Parker, Taylor, Hannant, Lillyman (18th Man).
[Team Changes - Queensland welcomed back Greg Inglis and he replaces Willie Tonga who is injured. Jacob Lillyman and Dave Taylor have swapped spots as 18th man for Origin 2. ]
NSW: Minichiello, Hayne, Hopoate, Gasnier, Uate, Soward, Pearce, Gallen (c), Ennis, Mannah, Scott, Creagh, Bird. Bench: Merrin, Gidley, Watmough, Lewis, Young (Likely 18th Man).
[Team Changes - Out go Brett Morris, Kade Snowden and Michael Jennings injured and Dean Young and Jason King were dropped. Josh Dugan was ruled out the day after being named and Anthony Minichiello comes in. Jarryd Hayne, William Hopoate, Kurt Gidley, Anthony Watmough and Luke Lewis are the new faces in Origin 2. ]
Listen to the State of Origin Game 2 Preview Podcast on Tuesday June 14.
Tipping + Fantasy Late Mail...
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ROUND 14 BYES
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NRL TWEET PLAYER OF THE YEAR VOTES
AFTER ROUND 13
FANTASY LEAGUE SCORE UPDATE
Phase Two of NOT The Footy Show's Fantasy League.
TIPPING TIPS:This year not only do you get The NRL Tweet's Tips each week but the whole NOT The Footy Show team will have their picks listed by Thursday so you can back a smoky or a favourite by seeing who we all picked (or didn't pick). Truthfully there is no perfect formula but here's a vital tip to help you cope with the copious amounts of NRL Tipping Comp's
@NRLTWEET's 2011 TIPPING RECORD
TOTAL AFTER 13 ROUNDS - 55/96 @ 57.3%
The NRL Tweet finished with 125 correct tips from 192 Games in 2010 at a strike rate of 65%.
ROUND 13 SELECTIONS
Warrick Nicolson, The NRL Tweet + NTFS Host
Dragons
Sea Eagles
Broncos
Warriors
Roosters
| SEASON 55/96
Nic McInerney, NTFS Co-Host
Titans
Sea Eagles
Broncos
Warriors
Roosters
| SEASON 64/96
Matt Duncan, 101.5 FM's SportsFever
Dragons
Sea Eagles
Broncos
Warriors
Roosters
| SEASON 58/96
Dave Chapman, NTFS Co-Host
Dragons
Sea Eagles
Broncos
Warriors
Storm
| SEASON 62/96
Maria Tsialis, Big League Magazine
Titans
Sea Eagles
Raiders
Warriors
Storm
| SEASON 54/96
Andy Raymond, Fox Sports Commentator
Titans
Sea Eagles
Raiders
Warriors
Storm
| SEASON 51/96
Eyes, The Kid Who Sees AllDragons
Cowboys
Raiders
Tigers
Roosters
| SEASON 47/96
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]-[ It's not too late to join our Tipping Competition as long as you're already signed up for Tipping on the Daily Telegraph Website. We use that site because their overall prize is pretty good and you'll be on there for Super Coach anyway. Our League Code is 446386 and you can invite as many people as you want to take on the boys and girls from NOT The Footy Show.1st Prize is an Official Steeden Match ball.
Fantasy League Phase 2 is underway...
As an added bonus - here is a Fantasy League BYE Week Cheat Sheet.
Especially for the NRL Dream Team, Super Coach or Fantasy NRL minded crew.
