Thursday 26 September 2013

#NFL 2013: Week 4 Picks - Head to Head and with Spread | #nflpicks #nflpickem

- AFC and NFC Picks - Head to Head and with the Spread -
By The Postman, September 27, 2013

WEEKLY RECAP: Week 3 was poor in Head to Head as we went 8-8, while with the Spread we dramatically improved to go 8-7 with a push in the TEN-SDG game. So we're barely above 60% now in H2H... the glorious days of season 2012 are well and truly behind us. But we persist!

H2H UPSETS PICKED: Went with 8 Upsets in Week 3 - ridiculous for a start but 6 teams won as the underdog... pity we only had 3 of them. Getting Cincy over Green Bay, Detroit over Washington and Baltimore over Houston is nice and all but 3 from 8 is not good. So 3 from 8 Correct (per Pick'Em favourite/underdog listing)

H2H LESSONS LEARNED: Kansas City are actually pretty good and I've thrown away 3 picks this year going against them every week... Philadelphia stink, teams without genuine QBs will find it hard to win when the other team plays well - ie. Tampa, Minnesota, while Pittsburgh just blew their last chance of me having any confidence in them by getting picked apart by Chicago (who are better than I thought). Bad losses for San Francisco, NY Giants and Buffalo but Seattle, New Orleans and Denver are in cruise control right now... New England still not sold on, despite them being my Super Bowl pick pre-season.

My 2013 NFL Season Preview and SuperBowl picks are here - and every week throughout the NFL in 2013 I will be posting my picks here on and via @wdnicolson.

Last year in the Yahoo! Sports Pro Football Pick'em competition I managed to finish in the 98th percentile (so Top 2%) of tipsters across the world... completely surprising myself by using the rule of thumb I (for some reason) refuse to back entirely in my NRL Tipping (that is pick favourites and then pick favourites and then, and only then... pick favourites and maybe one or two gut picks - which doesn't hurt you as much with up to 16 NFL games a week v 8 NRL games).

Week 4 began with St Louis hosting San Francisco on Friday Morning Australian time - we didn't get these picks up on site til Friday arvo but our picks were in on the sites Thursday night - we had San Francisco giving 3.0 points and head to head.
=====WEEK 4 PICKS===== 

Head to Head Picks per Yahoo! Pick'Em Overall League:
TNF: San Francisco over St Louis, Sunday: Baltimore over Buffalo, Cincinnati over Cleveland, Chicago over Detroit (Away Upset), Kansas City over NY Giants, Minnesota over Pittsburgh (Away Upset - game in London though), Tampa Bay over Arizona, Indianapolis over Jacksonville, Houston over Seattle (Home Upset), Tennessee over NY Jets, Denver over Philadelphia, Washington over Oakland, Dallas over San Diego, SNF: New England over Atlanta (Away Upset), MNF: New Orleans over Miami.
Year to Date: 29/48 @ 60.4%
Week 1: 11-5 (Overall Rank 20,862 - 65th percentile)
Week 2: 10-6 (Overall Rank 25,998 - 59th percentile)
Week 3: 8-8 (Overall Rank 20,274 - 64th percentile)

'With the Spread' Picks per my Yahoo! Pick'Em League:
San Francisco -3.0, Baltimore -3.0, Cincinnati -4.0, Chicago +3.0, Kansas City -4.0, Minnesota +3.0, Arizona +2.5, Indianapolis -8.0, Houston +2.5, Tennessee -3.5, Denver -10.5, Washington -3.0, Dallas -2.0, New England +2.0, New Orleans -6.5.
Year to Date: 18-28-2 @ 39.1%
Week 1: 4-11-1
Week 2: 6-10-0
Week 3: 8-7-1

You can tweet me your NFL picks every week @wdnicolson and I will list my final picks from that account every Thursday Night.
You can join the Pro Football Pick'em League I'm in here - which is a 'SPREAD' competition (Tony Kornheiser's Radio Show Group - so if you join best you are somewhat familiar with who TK is and possibly his radio show or PTI). | Group ID#: 35104 | Password: andy | Or just join the regular Pick'em Overall league.
During 2013 I will be reading Peter King's 'THE MMQB' Website every week - I suggest you do the same.