Wednesday 20 March 2013

NRL 2013: Round 3 Tips Late Mail Predictions Preview | #NRLDT #Supercoach #nrlmelcby

Plus NRL Dream Team/NRL Super Coach Picks

2013 NRL Premiership

By W D Nicolson - March 20, 2013


Okay Melbourne are pretty good...

And for whatever reason a pre-season scroll through the draw gave their Round 2 match on the road to the Cowboys... and when it came to pick for Round 2 - some goose here on went with pre-season thoughts instead of registering how good Melbourne were in Round 1. So there's a gimme tip given away, but overall 10 from 16 correct tips is nothing to sneer at people.

But no matter the process - does anyone give the Dogs a chance on Thursday night in the Grand Final rematch?
For our analysis of Tuesday team selections for Round 3 - click here.

They shouldn't based on any kind of form we've seen so far this season, but the Dogs might - I stress might - have Ben Barba and one or two of Sam Kasiano and Frank Pritchard back and will have had two full days more rest than the Storm.

Des Hasler can protest his innocence as much as he likes in terms of declaring Barba will not play Thursday night - but anyone with half a memory of how Des operates will not believe a word he says until that team sheet is handed in at around 7pm on Thursday night.

Continue reading below for the Round 3 Tipping Preview.

@NRLTweet Player of the Year - Round 2 Results here
Voting Allocation for Round 3 of the NRL is below.

As far as Late Mail goes the rolling lockout for all you NRL Dream Team and NRL Super Coach nerds should have allowed you to make any last minute changes quite easily, but once again our Latest of Late Mail should help in any selections you make before the round begins.

If you want to read about the things that matter from the last week of footy on and off the field - check out our new Complete Set Column published earlier this week.

Below you'll find the Round 3 Tipping Preview with our heavily researched Latest of Late Mail going up from Thursday morning onwards. Keep track of game-day Late Mail via #NRLLateMail.

ROUND 3 2013
Wednesday Odds Courtesy of Sportingbet | NRL LADDER

Thursday 8:10pm at AAMI Park
STORM $1.25 v $4.05 BULLDOGS
Tuesday Teams Analysed on NRL Injured List
@NRLTweet Player of the Year Award Voters:
| Warrick Nicolson @NRLTweet Matthew Duncan @mrpeninsula |
Track live round votes via #NRLTweetPOTY
Well we both know we're tipping Melbourne... but is it going to be a walkover?
Don't rule the Dogs out of the contest just because they fell to the Cowboys and got pushed all the way by the Eels... and probably don't have Barba, Kasiano or Pritchard. Okay, rule them out.
Good teams are always a chance but Melbourne's biggest danger here is a let down from the trip to Townsville and back, not the Bulldogs themselves. Melbourne by 10.
Maurice Blair or Junior Moors will be 18th man, with Moors favoured to make the bench. Though with the Storm's recent travel to Townsville - this is the kind of game that Craig Bellamy rests a player or two... beware and get ready to make a swap late.
LATE UPDATE? Storm 1-17.
The Postman's DT/SC TIP: Junior Sa'u might get a few games here in the centres with Justin O'Neill and Sisa Waqa out... but beware - he's not that consistent, look elsewhere around his price range.
The Dogs keep saying Barba won't play and wasn't on the same plane as the team to Melbourne... but that doesn't mean he could catch another flight right? Kasiano and Pritchard remain unlikely, with Tim Lafai set to be 18th man and the squad as named on Tuesday... or with Barba at fullback.
LATE UPDATE? Bulldogs 1-17.
The Postman's DT/SC TIP: Krisnan Inu is playing like he doesn't care at the moment... unless you think he's going to turn it around long term (which he could) then as far as panic trades go - he's a decent candidate.

Friday 8:05pm at Leichhardt Oval
TIGERS $1.70 v $2.20 EELS
Tuesday Teams Analysed on NRL Injured List
@NRLTweet Player of the Year Award Voters:
Justin Davies @dragonpunk12 Greg Delaney @gregdelaney84 |
Track live round votes via #NRLTweetPOTY
Robbie Farah and Benji Marshall are pretty good... they reminded everyone of that fact by dispatching the Panthers on Sunday. The Eels are improved... well enough to beat the Warriors (who are maybe worse) and keep up with the Dogs (who are under-strength) in the opening weeks. The Tigers will miss Keith Galloway and if Parramatta play this up the middle then the Tigers are in trouble... but I get the feeling the Eels still think they need Chris Sandow and Jarryd Hayne creating plenty of points to win - which they definitely do - they lose this game. In short - listen to Ricky Stuart and Parra win... but I don't think they will (but they should learn a lot). Tigers by 8 at Leichhardt.
Matt Utai's neck is the official reason why Reddy is on the wing for the next few weeks, while Mick Potter will choose between rookies Seumanufagai and Sue or Iosefa for his final bench spot. Lawrence should play after leaving the field early against Penrith.
LATE UPDATE? Tigers 1-17.
The Postman's DT/SC TIP: With Keith Galloway out for most of the next few months (if not the whole year) - it is time to lock Jack Buchanan into your side for the foreseeable future.
Don't rule out Maitua just yet... if he thinks he can play, Stuart will let him and Ken Edwards or Kelepi Tanginoa will miss out. Sio could also come into the reckoning for Toutai - but watch this space.
LATE UPDATE? Lookey lookey - Maitua will play. Edwards misses out - bad luck if you made your trade for him before Thursday.
The Postman's DT/SC TIP: Vai Toutai and Ken Edwards are short term first graders - don't waste a trade THIS week that could be used on grabbing a more valuable cash cow option before they rise.
Saturday 4:30pm at Skilled Park (QLD Time)
TITANS $2.40 v $1.60 SEA EAGLES
Tuesday Teams Analysed on NRL Injured List
@NRLTweet Player of the Year Award Voters:
Matt Vickers @mercurialmattyv Matt Spillane @devonhead |
Track live round votes via #NRLTweetPOTY
Manly are riding high after back to back wins against good teams, and head to the Gold Coast to take on the Titans who played well in Round 1 and were handed 2 points in Round 2. This is a big test for young Gold Coast halves Aidan Sezer and Albert Kelly who have impressed so far with a more expansive John Cartwright game plan - but they come up against Daly Cherry-Evans and Kieran Foran... arguably the most influential pairing in the game. On paper the Titans have the advantage up front, but I'm sticking with Manly with those halves and guy called Jamie Lyon. Manly by 7.
Awesome Foursome Tipster Matthew Duncan on this game: Manly to cover the line is the bet of the year!
Cartwright won't make any changes... so Mark Minichiello continues to serve time in the QLD Cup.
LATE UPDATE? Titans 1-17.
The Postman's DT/SC TIP: Grab Albert Kelly if you don't have him but he might score low against Manly this weekend. Don't let that dissuade you..
Jason King a late addition? If he boards the plane to the Gold Coast, the David Gower would miss out. Matai should be okay to play, with Symonds his cover on the bench.
LATE UPDATE? Sea Eagles 1-17.
The Postman's DT/SC TIP: Anthony Watmough has started like a steam train... injured. He's a quality player but I'll pass on him this year as those damaged ribs will let him down eventually..
Saturday 7:35pm at Allianz Stadium
ROOSTERS $1.54 v $2.55 BRONCOS
Tuesday Teams Analysed on NRL Injured List
@NRLTweet Player of the Year Award Voters:
Ben Hoese @gunnermcdagget Matthew Duncan @mrpeninsula |
Track live round votes via #NRLTweetPOTY
The Roosters almost found a way to lose in Auckland... but importantly - didn't. The Broncos defended their butts off in Wollongong... and won. But the Roosters have more points in them than those Dragons did - and if Brisbane hand the Roosters that amount of footy - SBW, Maloney and Jennings will make them pay. If half of the fans that showed up to the season opener at the SFS turn up this Saturday night - the Broncos will be rather shocked. As for the game itself - let's go with the home team if the support is half decent, so Roosters by 6.
Aidan Guerra has an ankle problem so don't expect him back this week. The Roosters should be 1-17.
LATE UPDATE? Roosters 1-17
The Postman's DT/SC TIP: I've always like Mitch Aubusson but his scores in Round 1 and 2 are inflated by line breaks... he won't do that every week and his minutes will drop again when Guerra comes back. Don't get sucked in.
Hodges is the big worry - hamstring tightness is what he reported last Friday but if he feels anything in the warm-up the Broncos won't risk him. If that happens Gillett or Glenn go into the centres and Thaiday would move to the backrow (or Stagg into the second row).
LATE UPDATE? Hodges is OUT. Talk Stagg will replace him and Lui onto the final bench.
The Postman's DT/SC TIP: If you invested in Scott Prince before Round 1 - get out NOW. I will say no more...
Sunday 2:00pm at Sharks Stadium
SHARKS $1.45 v $2.80 WARRIORS
Tuesday Teams Analysed on NRL Injured List
@NRLTweet Player of the Year Award Voters:
Maria Tsialis @mtsialis Ben Jones @benwah87 |
Track live round votes via #NRLTweetPOTY
Can the Warriors win this? Of course, but the Sharks have put two gutsy games back to back and the Warriors haven't. Throw in the home ground advantage on a Sunday afternoon  and this points to the Sharks winning. Which in some respects they should, but the Warriors have an upset in their near future based simply on the talent they have... and haven't really used of yet. Still take Cronulla by 10 points.
Lewis is the biggest concern with ankle damage... he was named but it is rare to see a Monday night team name a different squad the next day - so he's a big doubt here. Jayson Bukuya would likely start, and Sam Tagataese would get a run off the bench.
LATE UPDATE? Green replaced by Tagataese.
The Postman's DT/SC TIP: Paul Gallen remains a beast... ride him til he gets hurt or starts playing Origin.
Henry could force his way into the squad here... with Steve Rapira possibly the one to make way.
LATE UPDATE? Fisiiahi (Family tragedy) and Sam Rapira are OUT. Ngani Laamape comes onto the wing, Steve Rapira starts at prop and Ben Henry in the second row.
The Postman's DT/SC TIP: Sam Rapira was a cheap option before Round 1 and while he's been okay... he's not a better option than a cheaper rookie like George Burgess or Jack Buchanan. Swap now.
Sunday 3:00pm at Centrebet Stadium
Tuesday Teams Analysed on NRL Injured List
@NRLTweet Player of the Year Award Voters:
Adrian McMurray @adrmcm Matt Trodden @trods2906 |
Track live round votes via #NRLTweetPOTY
It has to be South Sydney and FootyTab has already given the Panthers 12.5 points start... at home. Sam Burgess is back and that's enough for me to say forget Penrith's encouraging start to the season and look at the Bunnies 2-0 record and the fact they looked capable of more against the Sharks - yet still won without showing that potential. Rabbitohs by 16.
Humble got the nod ahead of Isaac John and Blake Austin on the team sheet... but don't discount either one making it onto the bench or even starting for poor old Tommy Humble. That bench looks set, while we aren't sure how far away Brad Tighe is from returning.
The Postman's DT/SC TIP: Sika Manu has 3 tries in 2 games... beware - it's a Fantasy shock to see him play back to back games.
Beau Champion is out for a month so Bryson Goodwin's spot is safe for now. Expect Tyrrell, Hunt and Clark to miss out on game day.
The Postman's DT/SC TIP: George Burgess will go up in value next week but with brother Sam back in the team - his minutes could be limited to just 20 in the middle of the match. Caveat Emptor people.
Sunday 6:35pm at Canberra Stadium
RAIDERS $1.60 v $2.40 DRAGONS
Tuesday Teams Analysed on NRL Injured List
@NRLTweet Player of the Year Award Voters:
Matt Spillane @devonhead Greg Delaney @gregdelaney84 |
Track live round votes via #NRLTweetPOTY
Do we really have to pick either team? Canberra have been arguably the most ordinary team in the first two weeks (let alone the most disappointing), while the Dragons just can't score points. But upon closer inspection - the Dragons have one more try than the Raiders! So crown St George Illawarra now!
Hold your horses... there's a curse in play here. So despite Canberra being all kinds of useless in the opening fortnight and the Dragons suffering from a bad case of attacking impotence - take Canberra by 4 with Reece Robinson the difference.
White and Buttriss should return from injuries, while Nicholls, Foster and Picker probably miss out come game day.
LATE UPDATE? Blake Ferguson is reinstated at the expense of Edrick Lee, while McIlwrick, Nicholls and Foster will all play NSW Cup.
The Postman's DT/SC TIP: Scoop up Reece Robinson if you can now he's locked in at fullback... especially if you've got the cash to move on from the very disappointing Gerard Beale. Robinson could have one of those really good days on Sunday... and if you're picking him up - it's a long term investment.
Steve Price hasn't made any changes to the squad... but the Harrison/Ah Mau for Merrin/Weyman swap looks set to happen again.
The Postman's DT/SC TIP: Time to jettison Gerard Beale? Well if you can afford to upgrade maybe... but a decent game or two from him and he makes you money. Needs to find his feet playmaking to be a long term option.
Monday 7:00pm at Hunter Stadium
KNIGHTS $1.91 v $1.91 COWBOYS
Tuesday Teams Analysed on NRL Injured List
@NRLTweet Player of the Year Award Voters:
Warrick Nicolson @NRLTweet | Nigel Wilbow @parramatters |
Track live round votes via #NRLTweetPOTY
Newcastle have the most impressive win of the two teams taking the field on Monday night - but the Cowboys second effort showed they have a bit more oomph in attack than the Knights when they come up against a good defensive team. Normally the Knights would get the benefit of the doubt at home against most teams but the absence of Willie Mason is key here - especially with the Cowboys trotting out dual internationals in Matt Scott and James Tamou. Manly rolled over the Knights last week and Kurt Gidley and Jarrod Mullen struggled, until the Knights show they can stop good teams up the middle - stick with the Cowboys by 6.
The Knights will give Tahu and Mason all weekend to be right for Monday.
LATE UPDATE? Mason and Tahu are OUT. Buderus is cleared to return and either he or Hilder will start at hooker. McKinnon will play right centre.
The Postman's DT/SC TIP: Keep the faith with Kurt Gidley - he scored okay last week without a shot on goal. Only consider moving him if he's your top halfback.
JT was a bit groggy after the Storm game but don't consider him in any doubt given the big gap between Round 2 and 3 for the Cowboys. Michael Morgan should also return.
The Postman's DT/SC TIP: Last week starting props Matt Scott and James Tamou played big minutes for big base stats - stick with them til Origin.
 What are your tips for Round 3? 
Think you'll take any advice from our Awesome Foursome panel this year?
Let us know by commenting below or replying on Twitter.

SPECIAL FRIED RICE involves each tipster taking a 'certainty' in a set order, with the tipster with the highest score at the end of the year literally winning a mountain of Special Fried Rice. The SFR Order rotates every week.
ROUND 2 SELECTIONS | The Awesome Foursome
Warrick D. Nicolson, The NRL Tweet
Storm Tigers Sea Eagles Roosters Sharks Rabbitohs Raiders Cowboys
LW: 5/8 | SEASON: 10/16
CBY +12.5 WTG -2.5 MAN -3.5 SYD -4.5
CRO -6.5 SOU -12.5 CAN -2.5 NQL +0.5
LW: 4/8 | SEASON: 9/16
Special Fried Rice: RABBITOHS over Panthers (Has 2nd Pick)
Season SFR: 1/2
Storm Eels Sea Eagles Broncos Warriors Rabbitohs Raiders Knights
LW: 4/8 | SEASON: 9/16
MEL -12.5 PAR +2.5 MAN -3.5 BRI +4.5
WAR +6.5 SOU -12.5 CAN -2.5 NEW -0.5
LW: 3/8 | SEASON: 8/16
Special Fried Rice: STORM over Bulldogs (Has 4th Pick)
Season SFR: 2/2 
MATT SAYS: Manly to cover the line is the bet of the year!

Jake Hauritz, Channel 9 Darwin
Storm Tigers Sea Eagles Roosters Sharks Rabbitohs Raiders Cowboys
LW: 7/8 | SEASON: 12/16
CBY +12.5 WTG -2.5 MAN -3.5 SYD -4.5
CRO -6.5 PEN +12.5 CAN -2.5 NQL +0.5
LW: 5/8 | SEASON: 10/16
Special Fried Rice: SEA EAGLES over Titans (Has 3rd Pick)
Season SFR: 2/2
JAKE SAYS: Sticking with a winning formula. Should be a good week for the favourites once again I feel. Only worries are Raiders and Tigers...

Not on Twitter
DC Chapman, League Lover
Storm Eels Sea Eagles Broncos Sharks Rabbitohs Dragons Cowboys
LW: 4/8 | SEASON: 8/16
MEL -12.5 PAR +2.5 MAN -3.5 BRI +4.5
CRO -6.5 SOU -12.5 STI +2.5 NQL +0.5
LW: 3/8 | SEASON: 7/8
Special Fried Rice: SHARKS over Warriors (Has 1st Pick)
Season SFR: 2/2

The NRL Injury List is updated regularly during each week of the season, making it an invaluable Fantasy and Tipping Tool alongside our Weekly NRL Previews once again.

Remember if you want game-specific Late Mail every week, then check out our Round Previews Every Wednesday and they are updated with all the very latest Late Mail on Friday.

If we are missing any players on this list - please comment below, reply on Twitter or email this address.
Who will take Ben Barba's mantle as champion in the 2013 @NRLTweet Player of the Year Awards?

The Prestigious Award returns for a 4th season in 2013.

@NRLTweet Player of the Year Award Voters:
Warrick Nicolson @NRLTweet | Nigel Wilbow @parramatters
Justin Davies @dragonpunk12 | Greg Delaney @gregdelaney84
Matt Spillane @devonhead | Matt Trodden @trods2906
Matt Vickers @mercurialmattyv | Ben Hoese @gunnermcdagget
Adrian McMurray @adrmcm | Matthew Duncan @mrpeninsula
Maria Tsialis @mtsialis | Ben Jones @benwah87

Review all of the voting results from 2012 right here

Remember you can track all the votes each week after each match in 2013 via the Twitter hashtag #nrltweetpoty