Plus NRL Dream Team/NRL Super Coach Picks
2013 NRL Premiership
By W D Nicolson - March 6, 2013
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KEY LATE MAIL ADDED OVER THE WEEKEND
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Below you'll find the Round 1 Tipping Preview with our heavily researched Latest of Late Mail NOW UP. Keep track of game-day Late Mail via #NRLLateMail.
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For our analysis of each team for Round 1, with our NRL Dream Team and NRL Super Coach tips for players you need to consider/ignore from each side - click here.
ROUND 1 2013
Wednesday Odds Courtesy of Sportingbet
Thursday 8:00pm at Allianz StadiumFOOTYTAB: SYD +3.5
Tuesday Teams Analysed on NRL Injured List
Warrick Nicolson @NRLTweet | Maria Tsialis @mtsialis
Track live round votes via #NRLTweetPOTY
Don't believe the hype... yes, the Roosters should be pretty good this year but in Round 1 they shouldn't be better than the Bunnies. South Sydney have spent the whole off-season priming themselves for a season that ends in the ultimate prize. The Roosters on the other hand - they've been doing the 'getting to know you' thing, so give me Souths by 6 (or maybe a lot more).
SBW will play, but he'll come off the bench. Boyd Cordner or Martin Kennedy will get the final bench spot alongside Luke O'Donnell and Daniel Mortimer.
The Postman's DT/SC TIP: Don't touch SBW yet, even if he plays he might take a few weeks to be at his best - and then his price might be down.
Expect Souths to be 1-13 with Jeff Lima likely to take his place on the bench after missing the trials with a knee injury. George Burgess looks set to keep Jason Clark out of the squad on the bench.
The Postman's DT/SC TIP: Greg Inglis and Sam Burgess will be worth every cent people.
Friday 8:00pm at Suncorp Stadium (7pm QLD time)FOOTYTAB: MAN +2.5
Tuesday Teams Analysed on NRL Injured List
Matt Vickers @mercurialmattyv | Ben Hoese @gunnermcdagget
Track live round votes via #NRLTweetPOTY
Manly will be stinging to make amends for their woeful display in the preliminary final last year and they should be primed for this game. Brisbane have been adjusting to a new halfback in Scott Prince and until he leads them to a few wins - I can't tip them confidently against a good side. Manly by 8 thanks.
Mitchell Dodds or Scott Anderson will be the final bench forward, while there remains a chance that Ben Hannant could start ahead of Josh McGuire come kick-off.
The Postman's DT/SC TIP: Avoid Scott Prince - you'll only be disappointed and Corey Parker won't be a dud without the goalkicking, he'll still be a weapon fantasy wise.
Jorge Taufua is expected to play after missing the trials with a hamstring strain, while Richie Fa'aoso could swap with Brenton Lawrence and start. Joe Galuvao is the only other bench player guaranteed of a run with two of David Gower, Jesse Sene-Lefao, Pita Hiku and George Rose.
#NRLLateMail Taufua will play after getting clearance for an off-field judicial matter.
The Postman's DT/SC TIP: Jamie Buhrer and Justin Horo look tasty mid to low priced backrowers here.
FOOTYTAB: WAR +2.5
Tuesday Teams Analysed on NRL Injured List
@NRLTweet Player of the Year Award Voters:Greg Delaney @gregdelaney84 | Matt Spillane @devonhead
Track live round votes via #NRLTweetPOTY
Parramatta were terrible last year, don't forget that. But the Warriors couldn't win a game to save themselves in the final two months... so who to pick? Well ask yourself this: Would you feel worse picking the Eels or the Warriors and watching them lose? My answer to that question is Parra, so give me the Warriors by 10 points if Shaun Johnson is even remotely fit.
Parramatta expect to be 1-17.
The Postman's DT/SC TIP: Jacob Loko might be tempting here, while Darcy Lussick seems to be a popular upside pick in the front row.
The Warriors will play Shaun Johnson given the importance of a Round 1 win over a team they will expect to beat. Steve Rapira or Sebastine Ikahihifo will get the final bench spot if Ben Henry is cleared to return from an ankle injury.
#NRLLateMail Ben Henry will not play, Steve Rapira comes onto the bench.
The Postman's DT/SC TIP: Glen Fisiiahi just became relevant given his price and Shaun Johnson playing makes him a serious consideration as your halfback once again.
FOOTYTAB: NQL +1.5
Tuesday Teams Analysed on NRL Injured List
@NRLTweet Player of the Year Award Voters:
Matthew Duncan @mrpeninsula | Ben Hoese @gunnermcdagget
Track live round votes via #NRLTweetPOTY
Take Ben Barba out of any team and it's a big loss... but for a season opener - there's a case that the Dogs won't miss him as much in this game as maybe a month down the track. I really like the Cowboys this season - particularly early in the season, but even though this game is in Gosford and not Sydney - I just have to give the Dogs the edge (even without Sam Kasiano and Frank Pritchard their pack is excellent). So in a back and forth tussle, give me the Bulldogs by 2 points.
No sign of Sam Kasiano or Frank Pritchard for this one, although the latter is the best chance if there is one. Steve Turner and Drury Low will share time at fullback, while Mitch Brown is 18th man.
The Postman's DT/SC TIP: Drury Low come on down - he's dirt cheap and will see time at fullback. Martin Taupau, Dale Finucane, Tim Browne and David Klemmer are all worth considering for your cheap seats. And if you like what you saw from Josh Jackson late last year - pick him, he's starting after all.
Kane Linnett will play after proving his fitness last weekend in a QLD Cup trial, while Scott Bolton might make a late push for Ashton Sims' bench spot.
The Postman's DT/SC TIP: Tariq Sims is a popular pick but you have to ask yourself - how many minutes does he get in Round 1? Ditto for Jason Taumalolo.
Make sure you take a look at our dedicated NRL Injured List
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FOOTYTAB: PEN +1.5
Tuesday Teams Analysed on NRL Injured List
Adrian McMurray @adrmcm | Matthew Duncan @mrpeninsula
Track live round votes via #NRLTweetPOTY
Penrith might have restocked the cupboard but surely Canberra's coaching staff has learnt from their conservative approaches to the last four seasons... and attack from the get go. Penrith will win a few games at Centrebet that they probably shouldn't but if Canberra are fair dinkum about taking the next step as a team - the Raiders win this by 8 points.
PENRITH PANTHERS:Penrith expect to be 1-17 with Adam Docker as 18th man.
The Postman's DT/SC TIP: Get on Lewis Brown and/or Nathan Smith. Thank me later.
CANBERRA RAIDERS:Plenty of doubts here - Reece Robinson's back seized up at training so even if Josh Dugan doesn't play - his replacement Robinson might not either... Jarrod Croker is considered unlikely due to a knee injury, and Brett White will play in the NSW Cup for game time.
#NRLLateMail Dugan believes he will play, Croker has also trained and is expected t play. Wighton however looks set to replace Robinson (back) and although Lee did not play in NSW Cup he is likely 18th man.
The Postman's DT/SC TIP: Don't get carried away with Jack Wighton or Edrick Lee - once Jarrod Croker and Josh Dugan are back they won't be in the starting team. Matt McIlwrick will be the backup #9 for the first month - will you take the punt on him?
FOOTYTAB: STI +9.5
Tuesday Teams Analysed on NRL Injured List
@NRLTweet Player of the Year Award Voters:Matt Spillane @devonhead | TBA @tba
Track live round votes via #NRLTweetPOTY
Melbourne are the Premiers... so stick by them, especially after their quality performance in the World Club Challenge. The Dragons aren't the team they once were but they passed up a chance to be a different team on the attacking side of the ball if Josh Drinkwater had been given the #7 from the get-go. Melbourne win this by 12 and I don't mind admitting I'd be stunned if the Dragons sprung the upset.
MELBOURNE STORM:Siosaia Vave could start for Bryan Norrie, with Brett Finch coming into the running for a bench spot ahead of Junior Moors, Lagi Setu or a straight swap for Norrie if he's hurt. Matt Duffie should play after a hamstring strain disrupted his pre-season.
The Postman's DT/SC TIP: Mahe Fonua will get an extended run on the wing now and Tohu Harris is a must in the second row.
Expect Matt Cooper to play, meaning Dan Vidot stays in NSW Cup. And if Cooper withdraws late, then Tyson Frizell could end up in the centres and Jack Stockwell would join the bench. Stockwell remains a chance of beating out Leeson Ah Mau as it is.
The Postman's DT/SC TIP: Gerard Beale is value if he plays even half decently at fullback, while the absence of Josh Drinkwater shouldn't necessarily rule him out of your squad entirely. Trent Merrin at lock is taaaaasty.
SHARKS $1.45 v $2.80 TITANS
FOOTYTAB: GLD +6.5
Tuesday Teams Analysed on NRL Injured List
Justin Davies @dragonpunk12 | Greg Delaney @gregdelaney84
Track live round votes via #NRLTweetPOTY
@NRLTweet's PREDICTION:Right now... we don't know what's going on at Cronulla off the field, but on face value (and hopefully nothing drastic is about to happen... hopefully) we have to take the Sharks at home. Give the Titans due credit though - they can and will be fired up for their first game and that forward pack and even if Cronulla get good news in the next few days - the Titans will smell a huge win on the road. Let's see what the future brings first though before we hand this to the Gold Coast, so Sharks by 4. LATE NOTE: Can you pick the Sharks without their coach? Wow....
CRONULLA SHARKS:Well we just don't know yet if any/or any Cronulla players will be out of this match due to the off-field drama engulfing the club, but fitness wise they should be 1-13, with Jon Green's spot on the bench under the most pressure from Jayson Bukuya and Mark Taufua.
#NRLLateMail Right now consider all Sharks playing... but their coaching staff has been stood down.
The Postman's DT/SC TIP: Andrew Fifita looks a very handy play given he's starting at prop and there's no Bryce Gibbs, while the backrow logjam looks like its cost Anthony Tupou and Jayson Bukuya big time.
GOLD COAST TITANS:Brad Takairangi should start in the centres but don't rule out a late shift by John Cartwright - either Luke O'Dwyer in a straight swap or maybe Anthony Don or Steve Michaels.
The Postman's DT/SC TIP: Brad Takairangi isn't the cheapest option but he'll get a game or two early... Albert Kelly is worth a punt, but you need to sacrifice Jacob Miller or Josh Drinkwater to do so.
KNIGHTS $1.52 v $2.55 TIGERS
FOOTYTAB: WTG +3.5
Tuesday Teams Analysed on NRL Injured List
Warrick Nicolson @NRLTweet | Nigel Wilbow @parramatters
Track live round votes via #NRLTweetPOTY
Newcastle haven't been shy in admitting they are a more committed defensive side after a pre-season and a few trials - so we'll take them on their word and think they'll stifle the Tigers on Monday. Aaron Woods' fitness is a big factor but even if he lines up for the Tigers - I just don't like their chances of clicking offensively with a rookie halfback up... that being said - the Knights have a brand spanking new hooker who only signed a contract a few days ago. Take the Knights at home by 8 points.
NEWCASTLE KNIGHTS:Wayne Bennett will decide between Robert Rochow and David Fa'alogo for his final bench spot, with Tyrone Roberts a certainty as Travis Waddell's backup at hooker.
#NRLLateMail Willie Mason's calf was 'tight' at training on Friday, so he didn't run. Expects to play, if he withdraws then David Fa'alogo will definitely play. Adam Cuthbertson trained with the team as the new 18th man.
The Postman's DT/SC TIP: Steer clear of Travis Waddell - just not enough upside to waste a hooking spot on him. Kurt Gidley should already be in your team.
WESTS TIGERS:Aaron Woods will make a push to play given the game is on Monday, but Jack Buchanan or Matthew Bell may still start. Bodene Thompson or Ben Murdoch-Masila would miss out if Woods lines up. Joel Reddy's presence on the bench is because Chris Lawrence and Blake Ayshford picked up knocks in their final trial, but both should play.
The Postman's DT/SC TIP: Jack Buchanan come on down! Bodene Thompson is also cheap as, and will play up front as well as in the backrow.
What are your tips for Round 1? Think you'll take any advice from our Awesome Foursome panel this year?
Would you like us to open up the Tipping Comp for 2013?
Let us know by commenting below or replying on Twitter.
Matt Duncan, 101.5 FM's SportsFever
@NRLTWEET's 2013 TIPPING RECORD
TIPPING TOTAL AFTER 1 ROUNDS - 0/0 @ 0%
FOOTYTAB TOTAL AFTER 1 ROUNDS - 0/0 @ 0%
SPECIAL FRIED RICE involves each tipster taking a 'certainty' in a set order, with the tipster with the highest score at the end of the year literally winning a mountain of Special Fried Rice. The SFR Order rotates every week.
ROUND 1 SELECTIONS | The Awesome Foursome
TIPPING:
Rabbitohs Sea Eagles Warriors Bulldogs Raiders Storm Sharks* Knights
LW: 0/0 | SEASON: 0/0
FOOTYTAB:
SOU -3.5 MAN +2.5, WAR +2.5 CBY -1.5
CAN -1.5 MEL -9.5 GLD +6.5 NEW -3.5
LW: 0/0 | SEASON: 0/0
Special Fried Rice: RAIDERS (Has 4th Pick)
Season SFR: 0/0
Rabbitohs Sea Eagles Warriors Bulldogs Raiders Storm Sharks* Knights
LW: 0/0 | SEASON: 0/0
FOOTYTAB:
SOU -3.5 MAN +2.5, WAR +2.5 CBY -1.5
CAN -1.5 MEL -9.5 GLD +6.5 NEW -3.5
LW: 0/0 | SEASON: 0/0
Special Fried Rice: RAIDERS (Has 4th Pick)
Season SFR: 0/0
 |
| @mrpeninsula |
TIPPING:
Rabbitohs Broncos Eels Bulldogs Panthers Storm Titans Knights
LW: 0/0 | SEASON: 0/0
FOOTYTAB:
SOU -3.5 BRI -2.5 PAR -2.5 NQL +1.5
PEN +1.5 STORM -9.5 GLD +6.5 NEW -3.5
LW: 0/0 | SEASON: 0/0
Special Fried Rice: RABBITOHS (Has 2nd Pick)
Season SFR: 0/0
Rabbitohs Broncos Eels Bulldogs Panthers Storm Titans Knights
LW: 0/0 | SEASON: 0/0
FOOTYTAB:
SOU -3.5 BRI -2.5 PAR -2.5 NQL +1.5
PEN +1.5 STORM -9.5 GLD +6.5 NEW -3.5
LW: 0/0 | SEASON: 0/0
Special Fried Rice: RABBITOHS (Has 2nd Pick)
Season SFR: 0/0
TIPPING:
Rabbitohs, Broncos, Eels, Bulldogs, Raiders, Storm, Sharks, Knights.
LW: 0/0 | SEASON: 0/0
FOOTYTAB:
SOU -3.5 BRI -2.5 WAR +2.5 NQL +1.5
CAN -1.5 MEL -9.5 GLD +6.5 WTG +3.5
LW: 0/0 | SEASON: 0/0
Special Fried Rice: STORM over Dragons (Has 1st Pick)
Season SFR: 0/0
Rabbitohs, Broncos, Eels, Bulldogs, Raiders, Storm, Sharks, Knights.
LW: 0/0 | SEASON: 0/0
FOOTYTAB:
SOU -3.5 BRI -2.5 WAR +2.5 NQL +1.5
CAN -1.5 MEL -9.5 GLD +6.5 WTG +3.5
LW: 0/0 | SEASON: 0/0
Special Fried Rice: STORM over Dragons (Has 1st Pick)
Season SFR: 0/0
The NRL Injury List is updated regularly during each week of the season, making it an invaluable Fantasy and Tipping Tool alongside our Weekly NRL Previews once again.
Remember if you want game-specific Late Mail every week, then check out our Round Previews Every Wednesday and they are updated with all the very latest Late Mail on Friday.
If we are missing any players on this list - please comment below, reply on Twitter or email this address.
The Prestigious Award returns for a 4th season in 2013.
Review all of the voting results from 2012 right here
Remember you can track all the votes each week after each match in 2013 via the Twitter hashtag #nrltweetpoty
