Wednesday 13 March 2013

NRL 2013: Round 2 Tips Late Mail Predictions Preview | Dream Team Supercoach Picks #nrlparcby

Plus NRL Dream Team/NRL Super Coach Picks

2013 NRL Premiership

By W D Nicolson - March 13, 2013


Ding Ding! Round 2 gets underway...

And here on we're pleased to report that we didn't steer you too badly in Round 1 - securing a solid 5/8 on our Regular Tipping and FootyTab selections.

In fact only DC Chapman from our 'Awesome Foursome' panel went below 5/8 for the week (he picked 4/8), and you will do yourself good by following Jake Hauritz and Matthew Duncan's picks each week.

There was value to be had for the punters with the Storm giving the start against the Dragons, while the money flowed for the Cowboys right up to kick-off... and they duly did the business on the Dogs.

For our analysis of Tuesday team selections for Round 2 - click here.

As far as Late Mail went - the rolling lockout for all you NRL Dream Team and NRL Super Coach nerds should have allowed you to make any last minute changes quite easily, but once again our Latest of Late Mail should've helped in any selections you made before Thursday's season opener.

If you want to read about the things that matter from the last week of footy on and off the field - check out our new Complete Set Column published earlier this week.

Below you'll find the Round 2 Tipping Preview with our heavily researched Latest of Late Mail going up from Thursday morning onwards. Keep track of game-day Late Mail via #NRLLateMail.

ROUND 2 2013
Wednesday Odds Courtesy of Sportingbet | NRL LADDER

Thursday 8:00pm at ANZ Stadium
EELS $2.20 v $1.70 BULLDOGS
Tuesday Teams Analysed on NRL Injured List
@NRLTweet Player of the Year Award Voters:
| W Nicolson @nrltweet and M Spillane @devonhead
Track live round votes via #NRLTweetPOTY
Parramatta in 2nd huh? Don't get comfortable... sure they finished up 30 point winners but they only led by 8 points with 17 minutes left against the Warriors, so late points don't get much value in my book against that kind of effort from the opposition. The Dogs went alright against a good Cowboys unit - and if they had of held the ball in attacking situations probably could've won in Gosford. Plus news today that Ben Barba will be back sooner rather than later is a boost. Yes his actual presence (and that of Sam Kasiano and Frank Pritchard as well) would be handier - they'll still be too good for the Eels at ANZ Stadium. Bulldogs by 10.
Word is filtering through that Ken Sio will miss with a leg injury, with his replacement yet to be named (Vai Toutai is the favourite from the NYC), while youngster Kelepi Tanginoa will be getting a few minutes off the bench at some point. Ben Roberts is also likely to come on after 20-odd minutes.
The Postman's DT/SC TIP: Easy on the Chris Sandow love - he's just as capable of scoring 15 this week as whatever score he put up against the Warriors. The Dogs will run at him all night with plenty of missed tackles as a result.
Ben Barba won't play first grade just yet, so Drury Low stays at fullback. Sam Kasiano and Frank Pritchard probably won't be risked for another week.
LATE UPDATE: Steve Turner misses out (perhaps knee soreness?) with Mitch Brown coming onto the wing.
The Postman's DT/SC TIP: Consider starting Drury Low this week... he looked lively against the Cowboys and will get more room to move against the Parramatta kick-chase line.
Friday 8:00pm at WIN Stadium
DRAGONS $2.20 v $1.70 BRONCOS
Tuesday Teams Analysed on NRL Injured List
@NRLTweet Player of the Year Award Voters:
|  M Tsialis @mtsialis and A McMurray @adrmcm
Track live round votes via #NRLTweetPOTY
The WIN Stadium factor is well... a big factor here. Brisbane weren't terrible at home v Manly, while the Dragons were far from good away v Melbourne. So who to pick? Well the Dragons are home, relatively fit and every few games might look like scoring points. As for the Broncos - just not sold on that Prince-Wallace combination being the answer, and Norman should be in the #6. This game gets decided up front... and though I really want to pick Brisbane - I just can't do it on the road in Round 2. Dragons by 7.
Dan Vidot will likely come in for Chase Stanley, while Jack Stockwell could be a late additon on the bench if Michael Weyman's knee doesn't settle down. Don't expect to see Josh Drinkwater yet... though, maybe Steve Price will see the light in the next 48 hours.
LATE UPDATE: Stanley will play, Stockwell drops out of the squad and Merrin/Weyman go to the bench for Harrison/Ah Mau.
The Postman's DT/SC TIP: Give Gerard Beale a few weeks before you write his poor Round 1 score off... because he's so cheap that you won't lose that much money if he can't get it together soon. Got a feeling this might be an up-week from Jamie Soward - but he shouldn't be on your team anyway so move on.
Mitchell Dodds or Scott Anderson will get the final bench spot, otherwise expect the Scott Prince/Corey Norman experiment to last at least another week.
LATE UPDATE: Hunt misses out and Anderson comes onto final bench. Hannant starts for McGuire.
The Postman's DT/SC TIP: Corey Parker played just 68 minutes last week and Andrew McCullough the same amount... and when they were off the field the Broncos fell apart. Expect 80 from Parker and at least 75 from McCullough.
Saturday 7:30pm at Eden Park (Local NZ Time)
Tuesday Teams Analysed on NRL Injured List
@NRLTweet Player of the Year Award Voters:
| B Jones @benwah87 and B Hoese @gunnermcdagget
Track live round votes via #NRLTweetPOTY
Yikes... the Warriors don't deserve any benefit of the doubt after their 'effort' against the Eels. And you can give the Roosters a pass for being beaten by a fine South Sydney outfit in their first game together. Sonny Bill Williams showed enough last week to suggests he's not bothered by that arm injury. But the key here is how much faith do you have in Matt Elliott turning around his side's attitude in the space of a week without Manu Vatuvei, Jerome Ropati, Nathan Friend and Russell Packer? Not enough to take them - even at Eden Park - given the Roosters have a healthier squad with a few more game breakers keen to register win #1 of the year. Roosters by 4 but it is not a confident pick.
No one knows what's happened to Jerome Ropati so expect Konrad Hurrell to hold his spot for this week at least. There's a chance Jacob Lillyman could start in the second row with Steve Rapira going back to the bench or Feleti Mateo starting at five-eighth, Thomas Leuluai to hooker and Elijah Taylor into the backrow for Rapira.
The Postman's DT/SC TIP: Shaun Johnson was poor last week but so was everyone else on the team. Persist. Todd Lowrie played 80 minutes but wasn't a big scorer... though Matt Elliott clearly loves him.
Boyd Cordner and Luke O'Donnell should play, with Daniel Mortimer possibly missing out altogether to allow the Roosters to play a massive bench.
The Postman's DT/SC TIP: Sonny Bill Williams starting and looking fit? Get him back in your team if you are willing to burn the trade... which given the increased number of trades in 2013 - means he should be in there and could explode in front of Eden Park.
Saturday 6:30pm at 1300 Smiles Stadium (Local QLD Time)
COWBOYS $1.95 v $1.87 STORM
Tuesday Teams Analysed on NRL Injured List
@NRLTweet Player of the Year Award Voters:
| M Spillane @devonhead and M Trodden @trods2906
Track live round votes via #NRLTweetPOTY
Yep, that's the Cowboys' logo alright. Although I picked the Dogs last weekend, I liked the Cowboys but couldn't bring myself to pick them on the road. But at home, with the Storm coming off a short week and likely sweltering tropical conditions... yep give me the Cowboys. Having said all that - Melbourne are a superb footy team who smashed the Cowboys in the corresponding Townsville game last year but JT's re-signing puts them over the top here for mine. Cowboys by 6.
The Cowboys will be 1-17.
The Postman's DT/SC TIP: JT scored big time last weekend... don't discount him doing that again - even against the Storm. Tariq Sims needs Gavin Cooper to be out of the lineup entirely if you want him to be a DT or SC option.
Craig Bellamy said he'd rest players early this season but he's said that a lot... remember Cooper Cronk was going to be rested late last year but instead of missing a game he just missed training. The devil is in the detail. Bryan Norrie will likely come in for Slade Griffin.
The Postman's DT/SC TIP: Since you picked up the Big 3 (or any of the Big 3) then keep the Big 3 til at least Origin time. And skipper Cameron Smith confidently, even if you think the Cowboys will win.

Sunday 1:00pm at Skilled Park (Local QLD Time)
TITANS $1.48 v $2.70 RAIDERS
Tuesday Teams Analysed on NRL Injured List
@NRLTweet Player of the Year Award Voters:
| M Vickers @mercurialmattyv and G Delaney @gregdelaney84
Track live round votes via #NRLTweetPOTY
Sure Josh Dugan is a goose but the Raiders might be better off this weekend without him... Long term - maybe not, but the team will be itching to not only make up for last weekend's insipid performance but prove to Dugan and probably Blake Ferguson that the team comes first. They'll be fired up, but the Titans won't be happy with coming away from Sharks Stadium without two points given their effort, so it's up to them to match the Raiders' fire early. I've got the Raiders higher than the Titans come the end of the season - so I can't pick the Raiders to start 0-2. Take Canberra by 4 points given the motivation coming of this week's events.
Still no Mark Minichiello and Luke O'Dwyer is the probable 18th man.
LATE UPDATE: Gordon will play despite a thigh bruise.
The Postman's DT/SC TIP: Greg Bird's performance was worth of consideration to bring him into your team... while Ryan James was money for jam in limited minutes.
Reece Robinson should be fine, while Jarrod Croker will play. There's a chance Dane Tilse might come off the bench and Tom Learoyd-Lahrs starts. Shaun Fensom is likely at this stage despite a wrist injury.
LATE UPDATE: Thompson is a late withdrawal, with Edwards to start. White is in doubt with an arm injury, and Nicholls will travel on standby.
The Postman's DT/SC TIP: Reece Robinson is a taaaaasty pick at fullback, but Shaun Fensom's wrist injury is a real worry for his 80 minute value. Joel Edwards also looked pretty good when he came on... be worried about Fensom's DT/SC value, but not his value to the team.
Sunday 3:00pm at Campbelltown Stadium
TIGERS $1.65 v $2.27 PANTHERS
Tuesday Teams Analysed on NRL Injured List
@NRLTweet Player of the Year Award Voters:
| Justin Davies @dragonpunk12 and A McMurray @adrmcm
Track live round votes via #NRLTweetPOTY
Hello BOUNCE BACK FACTOR. The Panthers got a win thanks to Canberra's ill-discipline handing the field position and possession regularly, while the Tigers stunk it up in Newcastle. So what do you take from that? Well, not a great deal. This is at Campbelltown and the Tigers can't be that bad again... surely. Let's take the Tigers by 10 in a classic bounce back performance.
Who knows what Mick Potter will do... watch this space for late changes.
The Postman's DT/SC TIP: Robbie Farah could be as good as Cameron Smith (minus the goals) this season... because who else is going to tackle at the Tigers based on Monday's performance?
If Wes Naiqama or Brad Tighe aren't right - Geoff Daniela will get the call up, with Lewis Brown likely to move to the centres if both are ruled out.
The Postman's DT/SC TIP: Josh Mansour was a beast last week and Dean Whare showed promising signs... there's some options in the Penrith lineup isn't there?
Sunday 6:30pm at Brookvale Oval
SEA EAGLES $1.65 v $2.27 KNIGHTS
Tuesday Teams Analysed on NRL Injured List
@NRLTweet Player of the Year Award Voters:
| M Trodden @trods2906 and M Duncan @mrpeninsula
Track live round votes via #NRLTweetPOTY
Manly were good enough in the 2nd half against the Broncos, but the Broncos did a decent job of rolling over. The Knights on the other hand ripped the Tigers a new one on Monday night. So which was more impressive - well clearly Newcastle's win but this is at Brookie and Manly should be well rested. Plus Jarrod Mullen's hand injury is a real concern here and though I'm taking the Knights +2.5 on FootyTab - give me the Sea Eagles by 2.
Anthony Watmough is a week to week proposition with rib damage, expect him to get a rest once Glenn Stewart returns. Jason King is not expected to play.
The Postman's DT/SC TIP: DCE is a great player - so no one should be shocked by his numbers last week. Anthony Watmough is playing hurt so be careful, while Justin Horo's 74 minutes is why you keep him.
Newcastle should be 1-17 with David Fa'alogo 18th man.
The Postman's DT/SC TIP: Akuila Uate probably has 4 or 5 big games in him this year... last week was certainly one of them. Kurt Gidley can be a bigger fantasy factor than he was against the Tigers - only his 7 from 9 goals made him useful.
Monday 7:00pm at ANZ Stadium
RABBITOHS $1.30 v $3.55 SHARKS
Tuesday Teams Analysed on NRL Injured List
@NRLTweet Player of the Year Award Voters:
| W Nicolson @nrltweet and N Wilbow @parramatters
Track live round votes via #NRLTweetPOTY
Cannot believe the Sharks are 7.5 point outsiders... especially with no Sam Burgess. That being said the emotion of Round 1 will have taken its toll on Cronulla, and getting back up for this game over a week later could be an issue as some realities hit home at training this week (as in no coach). As for the Bunnies - they have to wait the longest to play again of any team between Round 1 and Round 2 and as we just mentioned - don't have Sam Burgess. I think the price you can get on the Sharks is ridiculous as I give them a big chance in this one, but the safe pick here is the Bunnies by 4 in a close one given how focused they looked against the Roosters.
Jeff Lima is in some doubt after a knee issue in Round 1 but the long wait between games makes him probable. Dave Tyrrell or Jason Clark will get the final bench spot. Don't rule out Beau Champion just yet, though Bryson Goodwin is a fine replacement.
The Postman's DT/SC TIP: Why isn't Greg Inglis in your team already? Be careful - Nathan Merritt is useless unless he's scoring tries... then again he did score 3 last week.
That backrow might change again with Wade Graham to the pine, but otherwise it is unlikely that Ben Pomeroy will be back this week.
The Postman's DT/SC TIP: Paul Gallen was in everything in Round 1 but did anyone else think he looked less than 100%? That backrow situation outside of Gallen is still a fantasy concern, though Wade Graham got great minutes off the bench.

 What are your tips for Round 2? 
Think you'll take any advice from our Awesome Foursome panel this year?
Let us know by commenting below or replying on Twitter.

SPECIAL FRIED RICE involves each tipster taking a 'certainty' in a set order, with the tipster with the highest score at the end of the year literally winning a mountain of Special Fried Rice. The SFR Order rotates every week.
ROUND 2 SELECTIONS | The Awesome Foursome
Warrick D. Nicolson, The NRL Tweet
Bulldogs Dragons Roosters Cowboys Raiders Tigers Sea Eagles Rabbitohs
LW: 5/8 | SEASON: 5/8
CBY -2.5 STI +2.5 WAR +2.5 NQL +2.5
CAN +3.5 WTG -4.5 NEW +2.5 CRO +7.5
LW: 5/8 | SEASON: 5/8
Special Fried Rice: BULLDOGS over Eels (Has 3rd Pick)
Season SFR: 0/1
Eels Broncos Warriors Cowboys Raiders Panthers Sea Eagles Rabbitohs
LW: 5/8 | SEASON: 5/8
PAR +2.5 BRI -2.5 WAR +2.5 NQL +2.5
CAN +3.5 PEN +4.5 MAN -2.5 SOU -7.5
LW: 5/8 | SEASON: 5/8
Special Fried Rice: RABBITOHS over Sharks (Has 1st Pick)
Season SFR: 1/1 

Jake Hauritz, Channel 9 Darwin
Bulldogs Broncos Roosters Storm Titans Tigers Sea Eagles Rabbitohs
LW: 5/8 | SEASON: 5/8
CBY -2.5 BRI -2.5 SYD -2.5 MEL -2.5
GLD -3.5 PEN +4.5 MAN -2.5 SOU -7.5ALW: 5/8 | SEASON: 5/8
Special Fried Rice: BRONCOS over Dragons (Has 4th Pick)
Season SFR: 1/1

Not on Twitter
DC Chapman, League Lover
Bulldogs Dragons Roosters Cowboys Titans Panthers Sea Eagles Rabbitohs
LW: 4/8 | SEASON: 4/8
CBY -2.5 STI +2.5 SYD -2.5 NQL +2.5
GLD -3.5 PEN +4.5 MAN -2.5 SOU -7.5
LW: 4/8 | SEASON: 4/8
Special Fried Rice: SEA EAGLES over Knights (Has 2nd Pick)
Season SFR: 1/1

The NRL Injury List is updated regularly during each week of the season, making it an invaluable Fantasy and Tipping Tool alongside our Weekly NRL Previews once again.

Remember if you want game-specific Late Mail every week, then check out our Round Previews Every Wednesday and they are updated with all the very latest Late Mail on Friday.

If we are missing any players on this list - please comment below, reply on Twitter or email this address.
Who will take Ben Barba's mantle as champion in the 2013 @NRLTweet Player of the Year Awards?

The Prestigious Award returns for a 4th season in 2013.

@NRLTweet Player of the Year Award Voters:
Warrick Nicolson @NRLTweet | Nigel Wilbow @parramatters
Justin Davies @dragonpunk12 | Greg Delaney @gregdelaney84
Matt Spillane @devonhead | Matt Trodden @trods2906
Matt Vickers @mercurialmattyv | Ben Hoese @gunnermcdagget
Adrian McMurray @adrmcm | Matthew Duncan @mrpeninsula
Maria Tsialis @mtsialis | Ben Jones @benwah87

Review all of the voting results from 2012 right here

Remember you can track all the votes each week after each match in 2013 via the Twitter hashtag #nrltweetpoty