Saturday 10 September 2011

NRL Finals 2011 - Brisbane Broncos v Warriors 2nd Qualifying Final Preview - What's The Game Plan?

6:30pm (Local) Saturday 10 September @ Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane.
NOT The Footy Show Episode 83
- Qualifying Finals Review Released September 12, 2011 -

Right Click Save Target As This Link if you don't have iTunes.
NRL Finals Week 1 Review.
The Semi Finals are under-way, so join Matthew Duncan and Warrick Nicolson as they dissect the wins by the Storm, Sea Eagles, Broncos and Tigers in the Qualifying Finals. The Cowboys and Knights are finished for 2011, but the Warriors and Dragons get a second chance - do they deserve one? 
There are audio highlights of all the games plus the best quotes from the press conferences.
Our Elimination Semi Finals Preview Podcast will be out Thursday as we look to NRL Finals Week 2.
What is the Game Plan for Saturday Night Football?
Game Plan Points (outside of the obvious - make minimal mistakes, complete sets etc)
  • Darren Lockyer and Peter Wallace need to turn around the Warriors with long kicks. Every chance they get to turn the Warriors' pack around - they must take it.
  • Kick away from Manu Vatuvei to limit his involvement. The big unit is a beast on kick returns but doesn't go looking for the ball that much - if a long kick goes to the opposite side of the field you can take him out of the game.
  • Don't run one out. The Warriors love to hit and if the forwards get a chance to take our runners one at a time - they will.
  • Limit the Warriors' 2nd phase play as much as possible. If you need to assign someone to shadow Feleti Mateo then do so. Stick with James Maloney - he's an excellent support player.
  • Watch the speed of Aaron Heremaia and Lance Hohaia out of dummy half - middle third has to be on high alert here.
  • Use edge backrowers Ben Te'o, Alex Glenn and Matt Gillett as much as possible on the likes of Joel Moon and Lewis Brown. They are not classic centres so make them defend and jam in/commit to open space for the centres on future plays.
  • Be patient. Ivan Cleary's game plan is patience but the Warriors' players do like to throw the ball around - if the Broncos can hold the Warriors for long periods - they'll make mistakes trying to break things open.
Game Plan Points (outside of the obvious - make minimal mistakes, complete sets etc)
  • Keep Feleti Mateo on the field for 80 minutes. His full game combination with Kevin Locke is the Warriors best chance at victory.
  • Find Darren Lockyer and Peter Wallace in the defensive line. Don't try and always go through the Broncos' middle. Find their playmakers and make them work.
  • Pressure Gerard Beale when he chimes into the backline. He's a good player but not as poised or comfortable 'joining the rush' as Josh Hoffman was. Pressure Beale into making the wrong decision.
  • Get Manu Vatuvei involved. He is the biggest game changing winger in the game - don't let the game drift away from him.
  • Cover Corey Parker's off-load. His runs (while many) won't hurt but his off-loads that create 2nd phase play will.
  • Smash any one-out Brisbane forwards. Make them pay.
  • Work over Brisbane hooker Andrew McCullough defensively. McCullough has a tendency to miss half a set in attack when out of juice from a heavy defensive set.
  • Give the ball to Locke and Mateo - did we mention that?
Coming In... 
3rd BRONCOS TEAM RECORD 18-6 for 40 Points, +139.
6th WARRIORS TEAM RECORD 14-10 for 32 Points, +111.
Head to Head Last 10...
BRONCOS 5 WARRIORS 5 - Brisbane won a thriller 21-20 at Suncorp in Round 22 but the Warriors had won both games in 2010.
Last Finals Match: Have never played a NRL First Grade Semi Final but met in the Semi Finals of the 1997 World Club Challenge with Brisbane winning 22-16 in Brisbane.
Tuesday Team News...
BRI: Beale, Copley Reed, Hodges, Yow Yeh, Lockyer (c), Wallace, McGuire, McCullough, Hannant, Glenn, Te'o, Parker. Bench: Gillett, Hunt, Anderson, Hala.
[Team Changes - The Broncos bring Justin Hodges back from a hammy injury but lost Josh Hoffman to a knee injury for the rest of the season and Sam Thaiday was suspended for 2 weeks for a dangerous tackle. Ben Te'o moves to the second row for Thaiday and Dale Copley comes onto the wing for Hoffman, with Gerard Beale moving to fullback. David Hala is the new face on the bench. ]
WAR: Locke, Tupou, Moon, Berrigan, Vatuvei, Maloney, Johnson, Sam Rapira, Heremaia, Lillyman, Mateo, Mannering (c), Luck. Bench: Brown, Hohaia, Matulino, Packer, Ta'ai.
[Team Changes - The Warriors bring Manu Vatuvei, Shaun Berrigan and Aaron Heremaia into the team that defeated the Cowboys 18-6 in Round 26. Out goes Krisnan Inu and Alehana Mara, while Lewis Brown is on the bench. Brown or Ukuma Ta'ai will fight it out for the final bench spot, while Elijah Taylor didn't even make the squad. ]
Wednesday Game Preview...
To find out the Panel's tips and why they are tipping them - listen to the Podcast or watch the Tipping Video. Out Thursday.
Tipping + Fantasy Late Mail... 
SMH and Other Late Mail 08/09 - The Warriors have lost Shaun Berrigan to a hip injury and Lewis Brown will play in the centres.
The NRL Tweet's Tip... 
WARRIORS To Win By 1 Point.
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Toyota Cup:
Starts at 4:00pm.
 #1 v #8 

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07/09 Odds are courtesy of Sportingbet Australia - Line Varies.
21 - 127:45pm Fri @ ANZ | LINE: WTG +2.0 GAME STATS
Tigers will have a home semi in Week 2 against the Warriors, Dragons avoided elimination when the Warriors were beaten and will play the Broncos in Week 2.
40 - 106:30pm Sat @ Suncorp | LINE: WAR +2.5 GAME STATS
Broncos will have a home semi in Week 2 against the Dragons, The Warriors will play the Tigers after avoiding elimination.
42 - 088:30pm Sat @ SFS  | LINE: NQL +7.5 GAME STATS
Manly will 'host' a Preliminary Final at the SFS or ANZ in Week 3. Cowboys are eliminated as one of the two lowest seeded losers in Week 1.
18 - 084:00pm Sun @ AAMI | LINE: NEW +10.5 GAME STATS
Melbourne advance to Week 3 with a home preliminary final, the Knights are eliminated.
The best NRL Preview on the net kicks into gear for the Finals with all the info you need to make an 'informed tipping decision' or feel better about your team's chances in September.
Make sure you bookmark and compare your picks to the Podcast Panel's Tips all month long and make sure you grab the Podcast every Thursday. Check back on Friday for the Latest Mail as it breaks.
Be sure to enter NOT The Footy Show's Finals Phase for Fantasy League
Pick your team from the positional tables and watch them score Tries for you throughout the Finals Series. There are triple points on offer for Grand Final Points and the winner walks away with a specially created NOT The Footy Show 'Old School Team Logo' T-Shirt.
Cut-off is 7:30pm before the 1st Qualifying Final on September 9.
NOT The Footy Show Episode 82

Qualifying Finals Podcast Preview
Released September 8, 2011. 
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NOT The Footy Show 2011
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