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Friday, 16 September 2011

NRL 2011 - Elimination Semi Finals Preview - Finals Week 2 Tips Teams Predictions Late Mail Fantasy News Odds

2011 NRL ELIMINATION FINALS 
WEEK 2 PREVIEW

The best NRL Preview on the net kicks into gear for the Finals with all the info you need to make an 'informed tipping decision' or feel better about your team's chances in September.
Make sure you bookmark www.wdnicolson.com and compare your picks to the Podcast Panel's Tips all month long and make sure you grab the Podcast every Thursday. Check back on Friday for the Latest Mail as it breaks.
Check out the Elimination Finals Tipping Preview below...
New Feature For the Finals - What's the Game Plan?

NOT The Footy Show Episode 84
Elimination Finals Preview / Renee Gartner Interview Sept 15, 2011

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FINALS WEEK 2 MATCHUPS
15/09 Odds are courtesy of Sportingbet Australia - Line Varies.
1st ELIMINATION FINAL
 FULL GAME PLAN PREVIEW HERE 
 TIGERS 1.35 v $3.25 WARRIORS 
7:45pm (Local) Friday 16 September @ Sydney Football Stadium, Sydney. 
LINE: Warriors +8.5 GAME STATS
Winner advances to 2nd Preliminary Final against Melbourne on Saturday Week.
2nd ELIMINATION FINAL
 BRONCOS $1.68 v $2.20 DRAGONS 
7:45pm (Local) Saturday 17 September @ Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane.
LINE: Dragons +2.5 GAME STATS
Winner advances to 1st Preliminary Final against Manly on Friday Week.

$3.25
$4.00
$5.00
$6.00
$6.50
$21.00
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THE NRL TWEET SKINNY... Click the game plan links for in-depth analysis.
FRIDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL

 TIGERS v WARRIORS 
 Read the Game Plan for both sides here 
Prospective Game Plans for each team are on the Game Page link above.
Coming In... 
4th Seed TIGERS defeated Dragons 21-12 in 1st Qualifying Final.
6th Seed WARRIORS lost to Broncos 40-10 in 2nd Qualifying Final.
Head to Head Last 10...
TIGERS 4 WARRIORS 6 - The Tigers roared back late to beat the Warriors 26-22 in Auckland in Round 14, and also won 20-12 at Leichhardt in Round 2 this year. The Tigers have actually won 3 straight after the Warriors won 6 of the previous 7 dating back to 2005.
Last Time In Finals: These sides have never met in Semi Final Football.
Tuesday Team News...
WTG: Moltzen, Ryan, Ayshford, Lawrence, Tuqiri, Marshall, Lui, Gibbs, Farah (c), Galloway, Fulton, Ellis, Heighington. Bench: Brown, Flanagan, Groat, Woods, Utai, Murdoch-Masila.
[Team Changes - The Tigers bring Chris Lawrence back from a hamstring strain for the second week in a row at the selection table but this time he is almost certain to play. Matt Utai shifts back to the bench alongside Mitch Brown - with one of the two to miss out come game day. Ben Murdoch-Masila is added to the extended bench at the expense of Wade McKinnon and Andrew Fifita - both of which failed to make the final bench against the Dragons. ]
WAR: Locke, Tupou, Brown, Inu, Vatuvei, Maloney, Johnson, Sam Rapira, Heremaia, Lillyman, Mateo, Mannering (c), Luck. Bench: Hohaia, Packer, Matulino, Ta'ai, Taylor.
[Team Changes - The Warriors have recalled Krisnan Inu at centre for the injured Joel Moon (broken ankle) and Lewis Brown remains in the centres with Shaun Berrigan (hip) not right. Jacob Lillyman, Simon Mannering and Kevin Locke picked up knocks against the Broncos but will all play, while Elijah Taylor gets a recall on an extended bench. Sam Rapira avoided suspension with an early guilty plea from a charge in the Qualifying Final. ]
Wednesday Game Preview...
The Tigers should... I stress should - win this semi final given they are currently riding an 8 game winning streak and found another gear last week to out-gun the defending premiers in their qualifying final. The Warriors on the other hand turned up to Brisbane with a great chance of causing an upset and all they did was upset their coach who was at a loss to explain their 40-10 loss. You can't discount any team from the second week of the Finals on - but the Tigers have their sights set on a Premiership and it's hard to see the Warriors standing in their way.
To find out the Panel's tips and why they are tipping them - listen to the Podcast or watch the Tipping Video here.
Tipping + Fantasy Late Mail... 
SMH and Other Late Mail 16/09 - Chris Lawrence remains the biggest doubt for the Tigers but he believes he will be 100%. Todd Payten could be a late inclusion but has not been named (knee). Simon Mannering (leg) struggled last weekend and could be in some doubt, while Kevin Locke suffered a head knock in the loss to the Broncos.
The NRL Tweet's Tip... 
TIGERS To Win By 10 Points
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Toyota Cup:
 #3 v #5  - Winner to play the Cowboys.
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SATURDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL
 BRONCOS v DRAGONS 
Get Tickets | Match Info | Game Stats

 Read the Game Plan for both sides here 
Prospective Game Plans for each team are on the Game Page link above.
Coming In... 
3rd Seed BRONCOS defeated Warriors 40-10 in 2nd Qualifying Final.
5th Seed DRAGONS lost to Tigers 21-12 in 1st Qualifying Final.
Head to Head Last 10...
BRONCOS 4 DRAGONS 6 - Brisbane won 21-14 at Suncorp in Round 15 and have actually won 4 of the last 5 games dating back to Round 24, 2009.
Last Time In Finals: The Broncos eliminated the Dragons 24-10 in the Elimination Final of 2009 at Suncorp - as the Dragons went out of the Finals in straight sets despite being Minor Premiers.
Tuesday Team News...
BRI: Beale, Copley Reed, Hodges, Yow Yeh, Lockyer (c), Wallace, McGuire, McCullough, Hannant, Glenn, Te'o, Parker. Bench: Gillett, Hunt, Anderson, Hala.
[Team Changes - The Broncos need to win against the Dragons in order for Sam Thaiday to play again this season. He remains suspended, while Justin Hodges did not complete training on Tuesday due to a hamstring complaint but has been named. The side is 1-17 from last Saturday's 40-10 win over the Warriors in Brisbane. This will definitely be Darren Lockyer's final game at Suncorp. ]
STI: Boyd, Morris, Gasnier, Cooper, Nightingale, Soward, Hornby (c), Hunt, Fien, Weyman, Scott, Creagh, Young. Bench: Green, Prior, Cuthbertson, Merrin, Rein.
[Team Changes - The Dragons will start Dean Young at lock on the team sheet this week after he replaced Matt Prior from the bench the last two games. Nathan Fien has been listed to start at hooker, with Mitch Rein moving back to the bench. Adam Cuthbertson seems to be fighting Jon Green or Rein for the final bench spot. The rest of the starting side is unchanged. ]
Wednesday Game Preview...
This will definitely be Darren Lockyer's last game at Suncorp Stadium - win or lose and the way the Broncos took full advantage of the Warriors ineptness last week - they deserve to enter this game as favourites. But they are playing the defending premiers and the Dragons did play very well for 40 minutes last week. But they also got convincingly beaten in the 2nd half against the Tigers and mentally look shot. Although Lockyer finishing his career with a Grand Final is a fairytale way to end things - if his younger team-mates start thinking too far ahead, the Dragons will make them pay. A good start is crucial for the Dragons, while Lockyer's boys won't be out of it even if they trail at halftime. Should be a good'n.
To  find out the Panel's tips and why they are tipping them - listen to the Podcast or watch the Tipping Video here.
Tipping + Fantasy Late Mail... 
SMH and Other Late Mail 16/09 - The Dragons appear to be full strength, while the Broncos have concerns over Justin Hodges (hip/hammy) after he left training early on Tuesday.
The NRL Tweet's Tip... 
BRONCOS To Win By 2 Points.
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Toyota Cup:
 #4 v #6  - Winner to play the Warriors.
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FANTASY LEAGUE SCORE UPDATE
FINALS PHASE WEEK 1 LEADERBOARD (QF-EF-PF-GF)
To be added today.
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2011 TIPPING TIPS:
This year not only do you get The NRL Tweet's Tips each week but the whole NOT The Footy Show team will have their picks listed by Thursday so you can back a smoky or a favourite by seeing who we all picked (or didn't pick). Truthfully there is no perfect formula but here's a vital tip to help you cope with the copious amounts of NRL Tipping Comp's
@NRLTWEET's 2011 TIPPING RECORD 
TOTAL AFTER 26 ROUNDS - 115/192 @ 59.9%
The NRL Tweet finished with 125 correct tips from 192 Games in 2010 at a strike rate of 65%.

ELIMINATION FINALS SELECTIONS
All Tipsters need to tip with the start/line in mind. So if a team is +7.5 then if they pick the other team, that side must win by 8 points or more to get the tip correct (if it is +2.0 then the other side must win by 3 points). Starts for each game are based on Thursday's Line - as listed in the matchups at the top of the preview.
Warrick Nicolson, The NRL Tweet + NTFS Host
Tigers -8.5
Dragons +2.5
| FINALS 2/4
| SEASON 115/192
Nic McInerney, NTFS Co-Host
Tigers -8.5
Broncos -2.5
| FINALS 1/4
| SEASON 134/192
Warriors +8.5
Broncos -2.5
| FINALS 3/4
| SEASON 120/192
DC Chapman, NTFS Co-Host
Tigers -8.5
Broncos -2.5
| FINALS 2/4
| SEASON 127/192
Maria Tsialis, Big League Magazine
Tigers -8.5
Broncos -2.5
| FINALS 1/4
| SEASON 112/192
Eyes, The Kid Who Sees All
Tigers -8.5
Dragons +2.5
| FINALS 2/4
| SEASON 99/192


TIPS DONE, GO OUT AND ENJOY THE SEMI FINAL FOOTY!
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