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Wednesday, 7 September 2011

NRL 2011 - Qualifying Finals Preview - Finals Week 1 Tips Teams Predictions Late Mail Fantasy News Odds

2011 NRL QUALIFYING FINALS 
WEEK 1 PREVIEW

The best NRL Preview on the net kicks into gear for the Finals with all the info you need to make an 'informed tipping decision' or feel better about your team's chances in September.
Make sure you bookmark www.wdnicolson.com and compare your picks to the Podcast Panel's Tips all month long and make sure you grab the Podcast every Thursday. Check back on Friday for the Latest Mail as it breaks.
Check out the Qualifying Finals Tipping Preview below...
New Feature For the Finals - What's the Game Plan?
The Results Blog is here.
Be sure to enter NOT The Footy Show's Finals Phase for Fantasy League
Pick your team from the positional tables and watch them score Tries for you throughout the Finals Series. There are triple points on offer for Grand Final Points and the winner walks away with a specially created NOT The Footy Show 'Old School Team Logo' T-Shirt.
Cut-off is 7:30pm before the 1st Qualifying Final on September 9.
NOT The Footy Show Episode 82

Qualifying Finals Podcast Preview
Released September 8, 2011. 

FINALS WEEK 1 MATCHUPS
07/09 Odds are courtesy of Sportingbet Australia - Line Varies.
$2.10 V $1.757:45pm Fri @ ANZ | LINE: WTG +2.0 GAME STATS
$1.70 V $2.156:30pm Sat @ Suncorp | LINE: WAR +2.5 GAME STATS
$1.42 V $2.908:30pm Sat @ SFS  | LINE: NQL +7.5 GAME STATS
$1.28 V $3.754:00pm Sun @ AAMI | LINE: NEW +10.5 GAME STATS
FRIDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL
#4
              V
#5
7:45pm (Local) 9 September @ ANZ Stadium, Sydney.
Get Tickets | Match Info
4th TIGERS TEAM RECORD 15-9 for 34 Points, +89.
5th DRAGONS TEAM RECORD 14-9-1 for 33 Points, +142.
Head to Head Last 10...
TIGERS 5 DRAGONS 5 - The Tigers stunned the Dragons late in Round 22 - winning 16-14 at the SFS in a semi-final like atmosphere. But the Dragons had won four in a row before that.
Last Finals Match: St.George-Illawarra moved into the 2010 Grand Final at the Tigers' expense 13-12 at ANZ in the Preliminary Final.
Tuesday Team News...
WTG: Moltzen, Ryan, Ayshford, Lawrence, Tuqiri, Marshall, Lui, Gibbs, Farah (c), Galloway, Fulton, Ellis, Heighington. Bench: Brown, Flanagan, Groat, Woods, Utai, McKinnon, Fifita.
[Team Changes - The Tigers bring Chris Lawrence back from a hamstring strain but he is not a certain starter. Matt Utai goes to the bench and Beau Ryan and Keith Galloway also return from a week's rest. The most interesting selection is the addition of Andrew Fifita on the bench after spending the last two months in NSW Cup purgatory. Ben Murdoch-Masila goes back to Toyota Cup. ]
STI: Boyd, Morris, Gasnier, Cooper, Nightingale, Soward, Hornby (c), Hunt, Young, Weyman, Scott, Creagh, Prior. Bench: Green, Fien, Cuthbertson, Merrin, Rein.
[Team Changes - The Dragons have added Jon Green to their bench for the clash with the Tigers in the only change to their squad from Round 26. The Dragons look settled and relatively fit - a worry for the other seven teams still in contention for the Premiership. ]
Wednesday Game Preview...
To find out the Panel's tips and why they are tipping them - listen to the Podcast or watch the Tipping Video. Out Thursday.
Tipping + Fantasy Late Mail... 
SMH and Other Late Mail 08/09 - The Tigers will not risk Chris Lawrence, with Matt Utai or Mitch Brown coming into the centres to replace him. The Dragons will choose between Adam Cuthbertson and Mitch Rein for their final bench spot.
The NRL Tweet's Tip... 
TIGERS To Win By 4 Points.
|-| |-| |-|
Toyota Cup:
Starts at 5:15pm.
 #2 v #7 

]-[ ]-[ ]-[
SATURDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL
#3
              V
#6
6:30pm (Local) 10 September @ Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane.
Get Tickets | Match Info
3rd BRONCOS TEAM RECORD 18-6 for 40 Points, +139.
6th WARRIORS TEAM RECORD 14-10 for 32 Points, +111.
Head to Head Last 10...
BRONCOS 5 WARRIORS 5 - Brisbane won a thriller 21-20 at Suncorp in Round 22 but the Warriors had won both games in 2010.
Last Finals Match: Have never played a NRL First Grade Semi Final but met in the Semi Finals of the 1997 World Club Challenge with Brisbane winning 22-16 in Brisbane.
Tuesday Team News...
BRI: Beale, Copley Reed, Hodges, Yow Yeh, Lockyer (c), Wallace, McGuire, McCullough, Hannant, Glenn, Te'o, Parker. Bench: Gillett, Hunt, Anderson, Hala.
[Team Changes - The Broncos bring Justin Hodges back from a hammy injury but lost Josh Hoffman to a knee injury for the rest of the season and Sam Thaiday was suspended for 2 weeks for a dangerous tackle. Ben Te'o moves to the second row for Thaiday and Dale Copley comes onto the wing for Hoffman, with Gerard Beale moving to fullback. David Hala is the new face on the bench. ]
WAR: Locke, Tupou, Moon, Berrigan, Vatuvei, Maloney, Johnson, Sam Rapira, Heremaia, Lillyman, Mateo, Mannering (c), Luck. Bench: Brown, Hohaia, Matulino, Packer, Ta'ai.
[Team Changes - The Warriors bring Manu Vatuvei, Shaun Berrigan and Aaron Heremaia into the team that defeated the Cowboys 18-6 in Round 26. Out goes Krisnan Inu and Alehana Mara, while Lewis Brown is on the bench. Brown or Ukuma Ta'ai will fight it out for the final bench spot, while Elijah Taylor didn't even make the squad. ]
Wednesday Game Preview...
To find out the Panel's tips and why they are tipping them - listen to the Podcast or watch the Tipping Video. Out Thursday.
Tipping + Fantasy Late Mail... 
SMH and Other Late Mail 08/09 - The Warriors have lost Shaun Berrigan to a hip injury and Lewis Brown will play in the centres.
The NRL Tweet's Tip... 
WARRIORS To Win By 1 Point.
|-| |-| |-|
Toyota Cup:
Starts at 4:00pm.
#1 v #8 

]-[ ]-[ ]-[
SATURDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL
#2
              V
#7
8:30pm (Local) 10 September @ Sydney Football Stadium, Sydney.
Get Tickets | Match Info
2nd SEA EAGLES TEAM RECORD 18-6 for 40 Points, +208.
7th COWBOYS TEAM RECORD 14-10 for 32 Points, +52.
Head to Head Last 10...
SEA EAGLES 5 COWBOYS 5 - Manly won 24-4 at Brookvale in Round 14, but the Cowboys won 22-20 in Round 8 in Townsville. The teams have split the last 4 games.
Last Finals Match: Manly moved into the 2007 Grand Final after defeating the Cowboys 28-6 at the SFS in the Preliminary Final.
Tuesday Team News...
MAN: B Stewart, Robertson, Lyon (c), Matai, Hopoate, Foran, Cherry-Evans, Galuvao, Ballin, Kite, Watmough, Mauro, Rodney. Bench: Robinson, Buhrer, Rose, T Williams, Seuseu.
[Team Changes - Manly still don't have Glenn Stewart or Darcy Lussick due to suspension but they get Brett Stewart and Kieran Foran back from suspension for this one. Brett Stewart has a knee injury but is expected to play. Will Hopoate is named on the wing after being a late withdrawal last weekend and Michael Oldfield is on standby for him here. Vic Mauro is listed to start in the second row with Shane Rodney at lock forward. Terence SeuSeu and Tim Robinson are the extra men on the bench. ]
NQL: Bowen, Graham, Tate, Tonga, Fai-Fai Loa, Thompson, Thurston (c), Scott (c), Payne, Tamou, Cooper, Hall, Johnson. Bench: Segeyaro, Bolton, Taumalolo, A Sims, C Paterson.
[Team Changes - The Cowboys have named Dallas Johnson to return from concussion symptoms in a significant change to their squad that lost to the Warriors on Saturday. Leeson Ah Mau makes way, while Cory Paterson joins the bench. Matt Scott's back is a concern but he will play. ]
Wednesday Game Preview...
To find out the Panel's tips and why they are tipping them - listen to the Podcast or watch the Tipping Video. Out Thursday.
Tipping + Fantasy Late Mail... 
SMH and Other Late Mail 08/09 - There remains some doubt over Will Hopoate (Knee) and Brett Stewart (Knee) but they will be given until Saturday to be right.
The NRL Tweet's Tip... 
COWBOYS To Win By 4 Points.
|-| |-| |-|
Toyota Cup:
Starts at 6:00pm.
 #3 v #6 

]-[ ]-[ ]-[
SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOOTBALL
#1
              V
#8
4:05pm (Local) 11 September @ AAMI Park, Melbourne.
Get Tickets | Match Info
1st STORM TEAM RECORD 19-5 for 42 Points, +213.
8th KNIGHTS TEAM RECORD 12-12 for 28 Points, +35.
Head to Head Last 10...
STORM 8 KNIGHTS 2 - Melbourne are well on top in this rivalry - winning 42-12 at AAMI in Round 8 and winning 4 of the last 5 back to 2009.
Last Finals Match: Newcastle beat Melbourne 30-16 in their 2000 Qualifying Final and eliminated the Storm - the defending premiers.
Tuesday Team News...
MEL: Slater, Duffie, Nielsen, Champion, Quinn, M Blair, Cronk, Bromwich, Smith (c), Norrie, Proctor, Manu, Lowrie. Bench: Hinchcliffe, Kostjasyn, Woolnough, Lowe, Thompson, Waqa.
[Team Changes - The Storm are likely to be without Gareth Widdop with an ankle injury for at least the first week of the Finals, but Jaiman Lowe (Knee) and Maurice Blair (Hammy) have been named despite getting hurt last week. Blair replaces Widdop at five-eighth. Cameron Smith, Billy Slater, Bryan Norrie and Jesse Bromwich return from a rest, while Sika Manu and Sisa Waqa also return from suspension. Troy Thompson ans Waqa are on the bench, while Manu, Smith, Slater and Norrie start. Matt Duffie went off late on Monday but should be ok. ]
NEW: Gidley (c), McManus, Sa'u, MacDougall, Uate, Stig, Mullen, Tuimavave, De Gois, Kaufusi, Houston, Costigan, Edwards. Bench: Southern, Tetevano, Fa'aoso, Taufua.
[Team Changes - The Knights have named Junior Sa'u to return from an ankle injury but Siuatonga Likiliki will be on standby if he fails a fitness test. Steven Southern is the new man on the bench with Matt Hilder not named on doctor's orders. Cameron Ciraldo has been omitted. ]
Wednesday Game Preview...
To find out the Panel's tips and why they are tipping them - listen to the Podcast or watch the Tipping Video. Out Thursday.
Tipping + Fantasy Late Mail... 
SMH and Other Late Mail 08/09 - The Storm may not have Maurice Blair (hammy) and if he is out, Rory Kostjasyn would move into the halves from the bench. The Knights should have Junior Sa'u after he passed a fitness test on Thursday.
The NRL Tweet's Tip... 
STORM To Win By 10 Points.
|-| |-| |-|
Toyota Cup:
Starts at 1:30pm.
#4 v #5

]-[ ]-[ ]-[

NOT The Footy Show Episode 81
- Player of the Year Awards Show Released September 6, 2011 -

Right Click Save Target As This Link if you don't have iTunes.
Benji Marshall wins the 2011 NRL Tweet Player of the Year Award. Join Nic, Russ and Waz to find out who he beat for the top prize and will the Dally M's copy our results 24 hours later (they didn't with Billy Slater taking out the prize)?
Plus we hand out the Rookie of the Year, Representative Player of the Year, Team of the Year, Mr Consistency and NRL Game Breaker Awards.
Plus a quick Qualifying Finals Preview.
We will review Round 26 of the 2011 NRL Premiership on Thursday and give you our expanded thoughts on the first week of the Finals in Episode 82 with guests Andy Raymond, Matt Duncan, DC Chapman and Maria Tsialis.
]-[ ]-[ ]-[
FANTASY LEAGUE SCORE UPDATE
PHASE THREE FINAL LEADERBOARD (RD19-26)
Congratulations to Luke Wheeler's entry 'Spookalicious' - you have won a NTFS T-Shirt in the team of your choice.
]-[ ]-[ ]-[
2011 TIPPING TIPS:
This year not only do you get The NRL Tweet's Tips each week but the whole NOT The Footy Show team will have their picks listed by Thursday so you can back a smoky or a favourite by seeing who we all picked (or didn't pick). Truthfully there is no perfect formula but here's a vital tip to help you cope with the copious amounts of NRL Tipping Comp's
@NRLTWEET's 2011 TIPPING RECORD 
TOTAL AFTER 26 ROUNDS - 115/192 @ 59.9%
The NRL Tweet finished with 125 correct tips from 192 Games in 2010 at a strike rate of 65%.

QUALIFYING FINALS SELECTIONS
All Tipsters need to tip with the start/line in mind. So if a team is +7.5 then if they pick the other team, that side must win by 8 points or more to get the tip correct (if it is +2.0 then the other side must win by 3 points). Starts for each game are based on Thursday's Line - as listed in the matchups at the top of the preview.
Warrick Nicolson, The NRL Tweet + NTFS Host
Tigers +2.0
Warriors +2.5
Cowboys +7.5
Knights +10.5
| FINALS 0/0
| SEASON 115/192
Nic McInerney, NTFS Co-Host
Dragons -2.0
Broncos -2.5
Cowboys +7.5
Storm -10.5
| FINALS 0/0
| SEASON 134/192
Tigers +2.0
Broncos -2.5
Cowboys +7.5
Knights +10.5
| FINALS 0/0
| SEASON 120/192
DC Chapman, NTFS Co-Host
Tigers +2.0
Broncos -2.5
Cowboys +7.5
Storm -10.5
| FINALS 0/0
| SEASON 127/192
Maria Tsialis, Big League Magazine
Tigers +2.0
Warriors +2.5
Cowboys +7.5
Storm -10.5
| FINALS 0/0
| SEASON 112/192
Andy Raymond, Fox Sports Commentator
To Come...
| SEASON 112/192
Eyes, The Kid Who Sees All
Tigers +2.0
Warriors +2.5
Cowboys +7.5
Knights +10.5
| FINALS 0/0
| SEASON 99/192
]-[ The winner of NOT The Footy Show's Tipping Competition is Steven Benham and he has won an Official Steeden Match ball.
TIPS DONE, GO OUT AND ENJOY THE SEMI FINAL FOOTY!
]-[ ]-[ ]-[

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