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Friday, 23 September 2011

NRL 2011 - Preliminary Finals Preview - Finals Week 3 Tips Teams Predictions Late Mail Fantasy News Odds

2011 NRL PRELIMINARY FINALS 
WEEK 3 PREVIEW

The best NRL Preview on the net continues during the Finals with all the info you need to make an 'informed tipping decision' or feel better about your team's chances in September.
Make sure you bookmark www.wdnicolson.com and compare your picks to the Podcast Panel's Tips all month long and make sure you grab the Podcast every Thursday. Check back on Friday for the Latest Mail as it breaks.
Check out the Preliminary Finals Tipping Preview below...
New Feature For the Finals - What's the Game Plan?

NOT The Footy Show Episode 86
- Preliminary Finals Preview Released September 22, 2011 -
Right Click Save Target As This Link if you don't have iTunes.
Preliminary Finals Preview. 
Our Footy Forecast Pitch and Putt, Grand Final Care Factor and the Lockyer Double Bluff headline Week 3 of the Finals.
Join Nic, Matt, Maria, Eyes, Dave and Waz as they predict who makes the 2011 Grand Final from the Sea Eagles v Broncos and Storm v Warriors Games. 
Also... Who are the Next Gen of QLD Cup talent in the NRL? The myth that is the Warriors hoodoo over the Storm, Will Manly fans turn up? Josh McGuire forfeits a Kangaroo jersey, WINd Stadium, Grand Final Care Factor? Eels Place, Hodges on Morris, Fantasy League Update, Team of the Week and a Toyota Cup Preview.
So join Matthew Duncan, Maria Tsialis, Eyes and Nic McInerney with your hosts DC Chapman and Warrick Nicolson on Episode 86.

FINALS WEEK 3 MATCHUPS
22/09 Odds are courtesy of Sportingbet Australia - Line Varies.
1st PRELIMINARY FINAL FULL GAME PLAN PREVIEW HERE
 SEA EAGLES $1.40 v $3.00 BRONCOS 
7:45pm (Local) Friday 23 September @ Sydney Football Stadium, Sydney. 
LINE: Broncos +8.0 GAME STATS
Winner advances to Grand Final against the winner of Storm v Warriors on Sunday Week.
2nd PRELIMINARY FINAL FULL GAME PLAN PREVIEW HERE
 STORM $1.42 v $2.90 WARRIORS 
7:45pm (Local) Saturday 24 September @ AAMI Park, Melbourne.
LINE: Warriors +7.5 GAME STATS
Winner advances to Grand Final against the winner of Sea Eagles v Broncos on Sunday Week.
$2.65
$2.75
$5.00
$7.50

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THE NRL TWEET SKINNY... Click the game plan links for in-depth analysis.
FRIDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL

 SEA EAGLES v BRONCOS 
Get Tickets | Match Info | Game Stats
 Read the Game Plan for both sides here 
Prospective Game Plans for each team will go on the Game Page link above Friday.
Coming In... 
2nd Seed SEA EAGLES defeated Cowboys 42-8 in 3rd Qualifying Final.
3rd Seed BRONCOS defeated Dragons 13-12 in 2nd Elimination Final.
Head to Head Last 10...
SEA EAGLES 6 BRONCOS 4 - Brisbane won 18-10 in Round 26 at Suncorp a few weeks ago, but Manly won convincingly 34-10 in Round 12 at Brookvale. Manly have won 5 of the last 7.
Last Time In Finals: Brisbane and Manly last played a Final in 1994 when Brisbane won 16-4 in the Minor Preliminary Semi Final (Week 1) to eliminate Manly from arguably the most even Finals Series of recent memory. The game was played on a Sunday afternoon and attracted 34,891 fans to the SFS.
Tuesday Team News...
MAN: B Stewart, Robertson, Lyon (c), Matai, Hopoate, Foran, Cherry-Evans, Galuvao, Ballin, Kite, Watmough, T Williams, Rodney. Bench: Robinson, Buhrer, Mauro, Rose, Seuseu.
[Team Changes - Manly still don't have Glenn Stewart or Darcy Lussick due to suspension but the will return if Manly win this week. Brett Stewart's knee and Joe Galuvao's concussion are the only concerns but both should play. Terence Seuseu or Tim Robinson seem the players most likely to miss out. ]
BRI: Beale, Copley, Reed, Hodges, Yow Yeh, Lockyer (c)/Gillett, Wallace, McGuire, McCullough, Hannant, Glenn, Thaiday, Parker. Bench: Gillett/Norman, Hunt, Anderson, Te'o, Hala.
[Team Changes - The Broncos have regained Sam Thaiday from suspension but Darren Lockyer's cheekbone injury was deemed too great a risk and despite being named - the Broncos announced on Wednesday that the champion five-eighth will not play. Matt Gillett is expected to start at five-eighth with David Hala expected to beat out Corey Norman for a place on the bench. ]
Wednesday Game Preview...
Brisbane were dealt a heavy blow with the withdrawal of Darren Lockyer due to a broken face and the Broncos will be doing extremely well to run with Manly if the Sea Eagles get an even share of possession. But the Broncos are playing that well at the moment that they might just be able to spring the upset without their champion five-eighth. Tempering this enthusiasm is the fact that Manly have two in form halves to throw back at the Broncos - who counter with just Peter Wallace (who must steer the ship in Lockyer's absence) and Matt Gillett who will be asked to run the ball at five-eighth. Manly's class in the halves wins out here - but Brisbane do hold a slight edge up front - so if they can starve Manly's attack of good field position, they are a real big hope. But it is Manly for me in a tight one.
Tipping + Fantasy Late Mail... 
SMH and Other Late Mail 23/09 - The Darren Lockyer Double Bluff continues to dominate the news even with his announcement Wednesday that he would not play... then he trained on Thursday.
The NRL Tweet's Tip... 
SEA EAGLES To Win By 4 Points.
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Toyota Cup:
 #2 v #3  - Winner to play in the Grand Final.
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SATURDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL
 STORM v WARRIORS 
Get Tickets | Match Info | Game Stats
 Read the Game Plan for both sides here 
Prospective Game Plans for each team will go on the Game Page link above Friday.
Coming In... 
1st Seed STORM defeated Knights 18-8 in 4th Qualifying Final.
6th Seed WARRIORS defeated Tigers 22-20 in 1st Elimination Final.
Head to Head Last 10...
STORM 5 WARRIORS 4 DRAW 1 - Melbourne won 16-8 in Round 16 in Auckland but the Warriors upset the Storm 18-14 in Round 7 in Melbourne. The Warriors have actually won 2 of the past 3 games.
Last Time In Finals: The Warriors became the first team to ever upset the Minor Premiers in Week 1 of the Semi Finals in 2008 when they scored in the final two minutes to beat Melbourne 18-15 at Olympic Park. That is their only match in the Finals.
Tuesday Team News...
MEL: Slater, Duffie, Nielsen, Champion, Quinn, Widdop, Cronk, Bromwich, Smith (c), Norrie, Proctor, Manu, Lowrie. Bench: Hinchcliffe, Kostjasyn, Woolnough, Lowe, Thompson, Waqa, M Blair, Vea.
[Team Changes - The Storm are at full strength outside of the suspended Adam Blair with Rory Kostjasyn and Maurice Blair available to play from the bench. Gareth Widdop's ankle was fine against the Knights and he will definitely play. The Storm have little in the way of excuses entering the preliminary final. ]
WAR: Locke, Tupou, Brown, Inu, Vatuvei, Maloney, Johnson, Sam Rapira, Heremaia, Lillyman, Mateo, Mannering (c), Luck. Bench: Hohaia, Taylor, Packer, Matulino, Steve Rapira.
[Team Changes - The Warriors have omitted Ukuma Ta'ai and brought Elijah Taylor and Steve Rapira on to the bench after their win over the Tigers last Friday. Taylor seems the favourite to come in and he may start if Ivan Cleary decides to move Feleti Mateo to the bench again. Russell Packer may also start for Sam Rapira - as happened last week. ]
Wednesday Game Preview...
The Storm have only won one of their past three games but don't let the statistics fool you into thinking that just because the Warriors beat the Tigers last week - they are the ones with all the momentum. The Storm have still won 13 of their last 15 - so stats can work for them as well. The Warriors didn't really deserve their second chance last week but they took it by stunning the Tigers late and will believe that if they can stick with the Storm as well - they can find a way to win such a big game. The Storm on the other hand were okay against the Knights in Week 1 but have plenty of improvement in them - something the Warriors really haven't shown us in either of their two games. If the Warriors start well and blow the Storm away early - they can win this - but if they try and grind with the Storm - Melbourne will play in their fifth Grand Final in the last six seasons. And I believe Melbourne will do just that and win.
Tipping + Fantasy Late Mail... 
SMH and Other Late Mail 23/09 - The Storm will make a final decision on their bench Saturday with Maurice Blair and Rory Kostjasyn in the most doubt with injury.
The NRL Tweet's Tip... 
STORM To Win By 12 Points.
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Toyota Cup:
 #1 v #6  - Winner to play in the Grand Final.

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FANTASY LEAGUE SCORE UPDATE
FINALS PHASE WEEK 2 LEADERBOARD (QF-EF-PF-GF)
Has been announced on the Episode 86 Podcast - grab it at the top of the page.
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2011 TIPPING TIPS:
This year not only do you get The NRL Tweet's Tips each week but the whole NOT The Footy Show team will have their picks listed by Thursday so you can back a smoky or a favourite by seeing who we all picked (or didn't pick). Truthfully there is no perfect formula but here's a vital tip to help you cope with the copious amounts of NRL Tipping Comp's
@NRLTWEET's 2011 TIPPING RECORD 
TOTAL AFTER 26 ROUNDS - 115/192 @ 59.9%
The NRL Tweet finished with 125 correct tips from 192 Games in 2010 at a strike rate of 65%.

PRELIMINARY FINALS SELECTIONS
All Tipsters need to tip with the start/line in mind. So if a team is +7.5 then if they pick the other team, that side must win by 8 points or more to get the tip correct (if it is +2.0 then the other side must win by 3 points). Starts for each game are based on Thursday's Line - as listed in the matchups at the top of the preview.
Warrick Nicolson, The NRL Tweet + NTFS Host
Broncos +8.0
Storm -7.5
| FINALS 3/6
| SEASON 115/192
Nic McInerney, NTFS Co-Host
Sea Eagles -8.0
Storm -7.5
| FINALS 1/6
| SEASON 134/192
Matt Duncan, 101.5 FM's SportsFever
Broncos +8.0
Warriors +7.5
| FINALS 4/6
| SEASON 120/192
DC Chapman, NTFS Co-Host
Sea Eagles -8.0
Warriors +7.5
| FINALS 2/6
| SEASON 127/192
Maria Tsialis, Big League Magazine
Broncos +8.0
Storm -7.5
| FINALS 1/6
| SEASON 112/192
Eyes, The Kid Who Sees All
Sea Eagles -8.0
Warriors +7.5
| FINALS 3/6
| SEASON 99/192


TIPS DONE, GO OUT AND ENJOY THE SEMI FINAL FOOTY!
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