FORM... WHAT FORM?
Good Luck... that's all I'll offer as we enter Round 3 of the 2011 Premiership as my tipping has imploded so far and although I'm sticking to my formula... the way form has gone in the opening two weeks - you might be better served on your own...
Or not... check out the Round 3 Tipping Preview & Podcast below.
Here on www.wdnicolson.com we've got all the Tuesday Team News, Wednesday Previews and Friday Late Mail that will keep your Tipping and Fantasy habit well fed. This preview integrates our NRL Injured List - which if you haven't bookmarked by now - I suggest you do so.
This year not only do you get The NRL Tweet's Tips each week but the whole NOT The Footy Show team will have their picks listed by Thursday so you can back a smoky or a favourite by seeing who we all picked (or didn't pick).
There is no perfect formula but here's a vital tip to help you cope with the copious amounts of NRL Tipping Comp's you are already in - PICK ON TUESDAY and enter your tips into all the sites no later than Wednesday. The reason for this is you can A. There is nothing worse than trying to cram your picks in late on a Friday afternoon and B. If you pick on Tuesday you can always change your mind and you would have given the Round some thought before Friday 7:29pm.
NOT The Footy Show's Round 3 Podcast is NOW LIVE.
Latest Podcast 24/03/2011: Episode 52 NRL 2011 - Round 3 Preview
You can check out who the NOT The Footy Show Experts picked for the 2011 Premiership via this link.NOT The Footy Show Podcast is available every Thursday - subscribe now on iTunes so you don't miss out.
ROUND 3 MATCHUPS
24/3 Odds are courtesy of Sportingbet Australia
$1.97 V $1.85
Fri @ ANZ | LINE: PAR +2.0
$2.15 V $1.70 
Fri @ Skiled | LINE: GLD +2.5
$1.45 V $2.75 
Sat @ Centrebet | LINE: CRO +6.5
$1.56 V $2.45 
Sat @ Campbelltown | LINE: CAN + 4.5
$2.20 V $1.70 
Sun @ Mt Smart | LINE: WAR +2.5
$2.00 V $1.83 
Sun @ ANZ | LINE: CBY +1.5
$1.56 V $2.45 
Sun @ Brookvale | LINE: NEW +4.5
$2.45 V $1.56 
Mon @ Dairy Farmers | LINE: NQL +4.5
24/3 Odds are courtesy of Sportingbet Australia
$1.97 V $1.85 Fri @ ANZ | LINE: PAR +2.0$2.15 V $1.70 Fri @ Skiled | LINE: GLD +2.5$1.45 V $2.75 Sat @ Centrebet | LINE: CRO +6.5$1.56 V $2.45 Sat @ Campbelltown | LINE: CAN + 4.5$2.20 V $1.70 Sun @ Mt Smart | LINE: WAR +2.5$2.00 V $1.83 Sun @ ANZ | LINE: CBY +1.5$1.56 V $2.45 Sun @ Brookvale | LINE: NEW +4.5$2.45 V $1.56 Mon @ Dairy Farmers | LINE: NQL +4.5
THE NRL TWEET's ROUND 3 PREVIEW
FRIDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL
Coming In...
EELS (10th) - RECORD 1-1 for 2 Points, -8.
RABBITOHS (15th) - RECORD 0-2 for 0 Points, -20.
Head to Head Last 10...
RABBITOHS 4 EELS 5 DRAW 1 - Souths upset the Eels 24-16 in Round 25 last year after the Eels had similarly upset the Rabbitohs 22-8 in Round 6.
Tuesday Team News...
PAR: Hayne, Burt, Walker, Morgan, Uaisele, Mortimer, Robson, Mannah, McGuire, Shackleton, Hindmarsh (c), Lasalo, Smith. Bench: Keating, Horo, Rogers, MoiMoi.
[Team Changes - Chris Walker and Etu Uaisele both come back in for Paul Whatuira and Chris Hicks after missing last week and Shane Shackleton and Ben Smith start. Young prop Mitchell Allgood didn't make the 17 (he did pick up a hand injury v Penrith however) and Billy Rogers makes the bench. While Justin Horo is demoted to the bench. ]
SOU: Wesser, Merritt, Inglis, Farrell, Talanoa, Sutton, Sandow, Asotasi (c), Luke, Stuart, Pettybourne, Taylor, Tyrrell. Bench: Crocker, Ross, McPherson, McQueen.
[Team Changes - No changes for the Bunnies... if they drop to 0-3 you can bet your bottom dollar John Lang either makes mass changes for Round 4 or isn't in the job. ]
Wednesday Game Preview...
WHow do you confidently pick either team in this game? The Eels at least have a victory on the board but they looked very dull against the Panthers last week and the Rabbitohs just can't play smart when they get the lead. If this game was at Parramatta Stadium then I'm sure the Eels would be the favourites but it is at ANZ so the Bunnies are getting the edge according to the Bookies. Jarryd Hayne is the variable here that tips the scales in Parra's favour and the fact I have more confidence in the Eels forward pack standing up with a lead than the depleted Bunnies unit.Take Parramatta but one of these weeks the Bunnies will wake up to the fact they've got a boatload of talent on their roster.
Tipping + Fantasy Late Mail...
EELS To Win By 4 Points.|-| |-| |-|
FRIDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL
Coming In...
TITANS (16th) - RECORD 0-2 for 0 Points, -37.
BRONCOS (4th) - RECORD 1-1 for 2 Points, +14.
Head to Head Last 10...
TITANS 3 BRONCOS 6 - The Broncos have won the last 3 games including a semi final in 2009.
Tuesday Team News...
GLD: Zillman, Tonga, Michaels, Thompson, Mead, Bird, Prince (c), Bailey, Brown, White, Laffranchi, Minichiello, Harrison. Bench: Henderson, Tagataese, James, Campbell, Meyers.
[Team Changes - Luke Capewell and Clinton Toopi have been dropped, while Kevin Gordon will miss the rest of 2010 with an ACL tear. Esi Tonga gets a start on the wing, Bodene Thompson moves to the centres, Greg Bird goes to five-eighth and Anthony Laffranchi & Mark Minichiello start. Brad Meyers and Michael Henderson join a 5 man bench. ]
BRI: Hoffman, Beale, Reed, Hodges, Yow Yeh, Lockyer (c), Wallace, Thaiday, McCullough, Hannant, Glenn, Gillett, Parker. Bench: Hunt, Te'o, McGuire, Tronc.
[Team Changes - Both Ben Hannant and Justin Hodges have been named to return from injury against the Titans, Gerard Beale goes to the wing. Scott Anderson did his calf in the warm-up before the Canberra game and Dale Copely has been returned to the Toyota Cup. Ben Te'o suffered a concussion against Canberra but should play.]
Wednesday Game Preview...
Will the real Titans please stand up? Or have the real Titans stood up already and things are going downhill fast on the Gold Coast?I'm yet to buy into the end of the era entirely with the Titans as they get Anthony Laffranchi and Brad Meyers back this week and Nathan Friend (arguably their 2nd most important player after Scott Prince) back by Round 5. They also get a home game here which should ensure they actually turn up to play the Broncos. Brisbane went well against Canberra and get Hannant and Hodges back but the Titans have more improvement in them and will not want to fall into an 0-3 hole.
Pick the Titans at home and hope that they turn things around.
Tipping + Fantasy Late Mail...
SMH Late Mail 25/3 No changes for the Broncos (Hannant and Hodges should play) and the Titans are contemplating whether to play Brad Meyers from the bench.
The NRL Tweet's Tip...
TITANS To Win By 2 Points.|-| |-| |-|
SATURDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL
Coming In...
PANTHERS (12th) - RECORD 1-1 for 2 Points, -20.
SHARKS (13th) - RECORD 1-1 for 2 Points, -22.
Head to Head Last 10...
PANTHERS 5 SHARKS 5 - Penrith have won the past 3 games and beat the Sharks by a combined 84-26 in 2010.
Tuesday Team News...
PEN: Coote, M Gordon, Jennings, Purtell, Simmons, Lewis, Walsh, Grant, Kingston, Civoniceva (c), Waterhouse, Plum, Bell. Bench: McKendry, Iosefa, Fatiaki, Earl.
[Team Changes - Travis Burns has been ruled out with a hamstring stain and Brad Tighe was suspended for a week for a lifting tackle, so Luke Lewis goes to five-eighth and Adrian Purtell starts at centre. Matthew Bell starts at lock while Sandor Earl and Masada Iosefa join the bench. Timana Tahu was not named but remains a chance to play after signing with the club last week. ]
CRO: Gardner, M Wright, Pomeroy, Best, Williams, Kelly, Graham, Snowden, Morris, Douglas, Smith, Tupou, Gallen (c). Bench: Cordoba, B Wright, Aiton, Collis, Mannah.
[Team Changes - Shane Flanagan is the only player dropped from the team that upset the Dragons on Monday. Paul Aiton takes his place on the bench and Dean Collis comes onto the 5 man bench after being dropped for Ben Pomeroy. ]
Wednesday Game Preview...
Which Penrith team shows up this week at Centrebet? The one that dominated the Eels or the one that was dominated by the Knights? And then there is Cronulla who couldn't hold Canberra's forwards yet totally smashed their St.George-Illawarra counterparts... so clearly this is a lucky dip.But it is at Penrith and the Panthers are a team I've got in my Top 8... as for the Sharks I've got them finishing with the wooden spoon so they've already got one more win than I'd like at this stage of the season.
Penrith to win.
Tipping + Fantasy Late Mail...
SMH Late Mail 25/3 Tahu remains a strong chance to play with Sandor Earl or Masada Iosefa making way on the bench, the Sharks will likely leave Dean Collis off their 5 man bench.
The NRL Tweet's Tip...
PANTHERS To Win By 12 Points.|-| |-| |-|
SATURDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL
Coming In...
TIGERS (9th) - RECORD 1-1 for 2 Points, -2.
RAIDERS (5th) - RECORD 1-1 for 2 Points, +12.
Head to Head Last 10...
TIGERS 7 RAIDERS 3 - The Tigers had Canberra's number in 2010 - winning at Canberra in Round 4, at Leichhardt in Round 15 and again in Canberra in the semi finals. The Tigers have won the past 5 in all.
Tuesday Team News...
WTG: McKinnon, Tuqiri, Ayshford, Lawrence, Utai, Marshall, Lui, Fifita, Farah (c), Galloway, Dwyer, Payten, Heighington. Bench: Moltzen, Woods, J Schirnack, A Schirnack.
[Team Changes - Bryce Gibbs has not been named after missing the first two weeks with a knee injury. He joins Gareth Ellis and Liam Fulton on the injured list. But in saying that he might be a late starter - so be aware. Andrew Fifita starts with the Schirnack brothers (Jason and Alan) keeping their spots on the bench. There is still no Beau Ryan. ]
CAN: Milne, Ferguson, Croker, Thompson, Vidot, McCrone, Orford, Learoyd-Lahrs, Buttriss, Shillington (c), Picker, Harrison (c), Fensom. Bench: Waddell, Thurling, Tilse, White, Stuart, Robinson.
[Team Changes - Brett White returns on the bench after a one week suspension, while David Milne remains at fullback for Josh Dugan. Dugan however is a strong chance to play after training already this week. Jarrod Croker has a cork in his leg and is in some doubt which explains the presence of James Stuart and Reece Robinson on an extended bench. ]
Wednesday Game Preview...
This is a real test for both teams this early in the season. Both are expected to contend for the title and both have had let downs already. The Tigers got done by the Bulldogs in Round 1 despite having a chance to win and the Raiders threw away chance after chance in their loss to the Broncos in Round 2. Canberra do have a full strength pack and the Tigers don't; so that's the factor that really looks to be the difference maker here, despite the presence of Benji Marshall and Robbie Farah.Pick Canberra to produce the upset at Campbelltown on the back of their big men.
Tipping + Fantasy Late Mail...
SMH Late Mail 25/3 Canberra centre Jarrod Croker has a corked thigh and remains in doubt with Reece Robinson on standby for him. Josh Dugan looks to be a genuine chance of playing and he would replace David Milne. The Tigers should be 1-17.
Later Mail 25/3 Josh Dugan and Jarrod Croker are likely to play after getting through training on Friday. David Milne and James Stuart were left out of the squad, with Nathan Massey and Reece Robinson travelling with the team.
Later Mail 25/3 Josh Dugan and Jarrod Croker are likely to play after getting through training on Friday. David Milne and James Stuart were left out of the squad, with Nathan Massey and Reece Robinson travelling with the team.
The NRL Tweet's Tip...
RAIDERS To Win By 8 Points.|-| |-| |-|
SUNDAY FOOTBALL
Coming In...
WARRIORS (14th) - RECORD 0-2 for 0 Points, -14.
DRAGONS (6th) - RECORD 1-1 for 2 Points, +3.
Head to Head Last 10...
WARRIORS 2 DRAGONS 8 - The Dragons have won the last 4 games and 8 of the last 9. The Warriors last win came in Round 18, 2007.
Tuesday Team News...
WAR: Hohaia, Locke, Moon, Ropati, Inu, Maloney, Seymour, Rapira, Packer, Mannering (c), Mateo, Luck. Bench: Berrigan, Lillyman, Matulino, Brown, Taylor.
[Team Changes - James Maloney comes straight back in after missing a week through suspension and he replaces Isaac John who picked up an ankle injury v the Tigers. Jeremy Latimore's spot as 18th man has also gone to Elijah Taylor. Kevin Locke keeps his spot ahead of Glen Fisiiahi. ]
STI: Boyd, Morris, Gasnier, Cooper, Nightingale, Soward, Hornby (c), Hunt, Fien, Gower, Scott, Creagh, Prior. Bench: Greenfield, Green, Merrin, Stanley, Rein.
[Team Changes - Beau Scott will likely miss a week through suspension and Michael Weyman has re-aggravated the groin injury that plagued him in 2010 and has been replaced by David Gower at prop. Mitch Rein has joined the bench and a player may yet be added to the squad to cover the impending loss of Scott. ]
Wednesday Game Preview...
WOAH! Did you see that beating the Dragons got at the hands of the Sharks coming? The Dragons sure didn't and never looked in the game. They also lose Michael Weyman and Beau Scott for this game and they suddenly look very vulnerable up front. But the Warriors are 0-2 and haven't played very well in either game so far, whereas the Dragons were very good in their Round 1 win. This is at Mt Smart so the Warriors will come to play but out of respect for the Premiers - I'm sticking with the Dragons.Dragons to win on the road as the Warriors drop to 0-3.
Tipping + Fantasy Late Mail...
SMH Late Mail 25/3 No new news on Ben Hornby's corked thigh although there is a suggestion Dean Young might make the trip to Auckland in a bid to play. Jack Bosden and Adam Cuthbertson are fighting it out to replace Beau Scott (suspended) if Young can't play. The Warriors will leave Elijah Taylor as 18th man if everyone else is fit.
The NRL Tweet's Tip...
DRAGONS To Win By 2 Points.|-| |-| |-|
SUNDAY FOOTBALL
Coming In...
BULLDOGS (3rd) - RECORD 2-0 for 4 Points, +19.
ROOSTERS (7th) - RECORD 1-1 for 2 Points, +0.
Head to Head Last 10...
BULLDOGS 5 ROOSTERS 5 - Canterbury crushed the Roosters 60-14 in Round 3 last year but the Roosters rallied in Round 19 to win 36-32 in one of the games of the year.
Tuesday Team News...
CBY: Barba, Turner, Lafai, Idris, Goodwin, Keating, Hodkinson, Tolman, Ennis, Kasiano, Foster, Ryan (c), Stagg. Bench: Paea, Pritchard, Payne, Halatau.
[Team Changes - The return of David Stagg who missed Sunday's match with a minor quad strain is the only change and he comes in for Chris Armit. Tim Lafai remains in the centres with Dene Halatau holding on to his spot on the bench. The club announced that Greg Eastwood may be available come Round 5. ]
SYD: Minichiello, Perrett, Linnett, Kenny-Dowall, Leilua, Carney, Pearce, Ryles, Riddell, Kennedy, Anasta (c), Aubusson, Myles. Bench: Waerea-Hargreaves, Masoe, Friend, Nu'uausala, Symonds.
[Team Changes - The addition of Tom Symonds to the bench is the only change from the team that got beaten by Manly. Todd Carney is officially listed at five-eighth and Mark Riddell starts at hooker (which he has done in both rounds despite being named on the bench). ]
Wednesday Game Preview...
Full credit to the Bulldogs - they are 2-0 and have looked pretty good beating the Tigers and Rabbitohs so far. The Roosters were goodish against the Bunnies but didn't show nearly enough intensity against the Sea Eagles and got beaten up. Todd Carney was solid in his first game and will be a bigger factor this week and that's what gets the Roosters home.Roosters to end Canterbury's unbeaten start to the season at ANZ.
Tipping + Fantasy Late Mail...
ROOSTERS To Win By 10 Points.|-| |-| |-|
SUNDAY FOOTBALL
Coming In...
SEA EAGLES (8th) - RECORD 1-1 for 2 Points, +-1.
KNIGHTS (1st) - RECORD 2-0 for 4 Points, +46.
Head to Head Last 10...
SEA EAGLES 5 KNIGHTS 5 - They split their two meetings in 2010 and Manly are the only team to have won 2 games in a row during the last 10.
Tuesday Team News...
MAN: B Stewart, Robertson, Hopoate, T Williams, D Williams, K Foran, Cherry-Evans, King (c), Ballin, Kite, Watmough, Galuvao, G Stewart. Bench: Seu Seu, Buhrer, Rose, Mauro, Robinson.
[Team Changes - The team welcomes back skipper Jason King after a one week suspension. George Rose goes back to the bench that also features Vic Mauro, Tim Robinson, Terence Seu Seu and Jamie Buhrer. Glenn Stewart has been named at lock but may still not play, expect Buhrer to start instead. Tony Williams and David Williams have been named despite picking up injuries against the Roosters. ]
NEW: Gidley (c), McManus, Sa'u, W Naiqama, Uate, Henry, Mullen, Kaufusi, Hilder, Tuimavave, Taia, Ciraldo, Houston. Bench: Rogers, Paterson, Fa'aoso, Tolar, Edwards.
[Team Changes - Kurt Gidley has been named to return from a back injury but is long odds to play - Shannon McDonnell would come back in for him. Jarrod Mullen has a sternum injury but is likely play. Adam MacDougall can't unseat Wes Naiqama at centre and Matt Hilder continues at hooker for Isaac De Gois. ]
Wednesday Game Preview...
Des Hasler must love it when his team has their backs against the wall... because he no doubt was a huge factor in getting them revved up for their win over the Roosters in Round 2. But can he keep the intensity up for a visit by the (very quietly) league leading Newcastle Knights?The Knights have taken advantage of two poorly performing opposition and cruised to a 2-0 record thanks to Jarrod Mullen and despite not having Kurt Gidley for this game will come to Brookvale expecting to win.
However Manly are at Brookie for Brett Stewart's first home game in two seasons... so take the Sea Eagles.
Tipping + Fantasy Late Mail...
SMH Late Mail 25/3 Newcastle haven't ruled out Kurt Gidley (back) yet although Jarrod Mullen (sternum) and Junior Sa'u (groin) still have to pass fitness tests to play. Manly will likely play Vic Mauro over Tim Robinson on the bench.
The NRL Tweet's Tip...
SEA EAGLES To Win By 4 Points.|-| |-| |-|
MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL
Coming In...
COWBOYS (11th) - RECORD 1-1 for 2 Points, -10.
STORM (2nd) - RECORD 2-0 for 4 Points, +40.
Head to Head Last 10...
COWBOYS 2 STORM 8 - The Storm have dominated the Cowboys since Round 10, 2006 by winning the last 8 games. They crushed the Cowboys in both games in 2010 by a combined 92-18.
Tuesday Team News...
NQL: Bowen, Graham, Tupou, Tonga, Fai-Fai Loa, Thompson, Thurston (c), Scott (c), Payne, Tamou, Cooper, Hall, Johnson. Bench: Segeyaro, L Ah Mau, T Sims, A Sims.
[Team Changes - Neil Henry has finally promoted young winger Kalifa Fai-Fai Loa ahead of Michael Bani - who is punted to the QLD Cup and boom hooker James Segeyaro gets a start on the bench for Ben Jones. ]
MEL: Slater, O'Neill, Nielsen, Champion, Quinn, Widdop, Cronk, Proctor, Smith (c), Norris, Blair, Manu, Hinchcliffe. Bench: Lowrie, Lowe, Thompson, Bromwich, Duffie, Woolnough.
[Team Changes - Anthony Quinn holds his wing spot ahead of Matt Duffie who is named on the bench after missing last week with a shoulder injury. Kevin Proctor is named at prop but will likely start in the second row with Adam Blair at prop. Adam Woolnough joins an extended bench as cover for Sika Manu who has a corked calf. ]
Wednesday Game Preview...
Danger game for the Storm and a vital game for the future of Neil Henry at the Cowboys. Melbourne have started the season very well with wins over the Sea Eagles and Titans and their Big 3 (Smith, Slater and Cronk) have been excellent with a new look squad. The Cowboys on the other hand edged out the Broncos with a decent display then tanked it against the Knights - which finally prompted Henry to make some changes. But the danger for Henry is he's only made a few moves to shake things up and if they don't produce a display with more heart against the Storm - there's a very real chance he could be done in Townsville sooner rather than later.The Cowboys are in this but you have to pick the Storm because odds are they won't turn it up like the Cowboys can.
Tipping + Fantasy Late Mail...
SMH Late Mail 25/3 North Queensland will not hand Michael Bani a late reprieve and should be 1-17. The Storm might get Matt Duffie back on the wing and Anthony Quinn might miss out. Sika Manu will test out his corked calf on Friday in an attempt to prove his fitness for Monday.
The NRL Tweet's Tip...
STORM To Win By 2 Points.]-[ [-] ]-[
- TOTAL AFTER ROUND 2 -
5/16 @ 31.25%The NRL Tweet finished with 125 correct tips from 192 Games in 2010 at a strike rate of 65%.
ROUND 3 SELECTIONS
Warrick Nicolson, The NRL Tweet + NTFS Host
Eels
Titans
Panthers
Raiders
Dragons
Roosters
Sea Eagles
Storm
SEASON 5/16
Titans
Panthers
Raiders
Dragons
Roosters
Sea Eagles
Storm
SEASON 5/16
Nic McInerney, NTFS Co-Host
Rabbitohs
Broncos
Panthers
Tigers
Dragons
Roosters
Sea Eagles
Storm
SEASON 5/16
Broncos
Panthers
Tigers
Dragons
Roosters
Sea Eagles
Storm
SEASON 5/16
Matt Duncan, 101.5 FM's SportsFever
Rabbitohs
Broncos
Panthers
Raiders
Warriors
Roosters
Knights
Cowboys
SEASON 6/16
Broncos
Panthers
Raiders
Warriors
Roosters
Knights
Cowboys
SEASON 6/16
Dave Chapman, NTFS Co-Host
Rabbitohs
Titans
Panthers
Raiders
Dragons
Roosters
Sea Eagles
Cowboys
SEASON 7/16
Titans
Panthers
Raiders
Dragons
Roosters
Sea Eagles
Cowboys
SEASON 7/16
Maria Tsialis, Big League Magazine
Rabbitohs
Broncos
Panthers
Raiders
Warriors
Bulldogs
Sea Eagles
Storm
SEASON 5/16
Broncos
Panthers
Raiders
Warriors
Bulldogs
Sea Eagles
Storm
SEASON 5/16
Andy Raymond, Fox Sports Commentator
Eels
Titans
Panthers
Tigers
Warriors
Bulldogs
Sea Eagles
Storm
SEASON 7/16
Titans
Panthers
Tigers
Warriors
Bulldogs
Sea Eagles
Storm
SEASON 7/16
Eyes, The Kid Who Sees All
Rabbitohs
Broncos
Panthers
Tigers
Warriors
Bulldogs
Knights
Cowboys
Broncos
Panthers
Tigers
Warriors
Bulldogs
Knights
Cowboys
SEASON 8/16
NOT THE FOOTY SHOW LEAGUE LEADERS
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1st Prize is an Official Steeden Match ball.
And if you miss the Round 1 Deadline for our Fantasy League - don't worry the 2nd phase begins in Round 10.
As an added bonus - here is a Fantasy League BYE Week Cheat Sheet. Especially for the NRL Dream Team, Super Coach or Fantasy NRL minded crew.
