Wednesday 3 April 2013

NRL 2013: Round 5 Tips Late Mail Predictions Preview | #NRLDT #Supercoach #nrlcbyman #NRLLateMail

Plus The Postman's NRL Dream Team/NRL Super Coach Picks

2013 NRL Premiership

By W D Nicolson - April 3, 2013


Straight to the tips this week...

If you want some insight and analysis in an opening paragraph then come back in a week when hasn't written a 'Best of' Feature - this time on the opening month of the season.

For how your team is travelling a month into 2013 - go here, then come back to the Tips and Late Mail.

But the good news is that The Postman is back with team by team NRL Dream Team and NRL Super Coach picks for you to consider entering Round 5 - as Break-Evens (BE's) start to warrant careful consideration.
For our analysis of Tuesday team selections for Round 5 - click here.

Continue reading below for the Round 5 Tipping Preview.

@NRLTweet Player of the Year - Round 4 Results here
Voting Allocation for Round 5 of the NRL is below.

As far as Late Mail goes the rolling lockout for all you NRL Dream Team and NRL Super Coach nerds should have allowed you to make any last minute changes quite easily, but once again our Latest of Late Mail should help in any selections you make before the round begins.

If you want a rundown on how your team has travelled through the opening month of the season - check out our Best of March Feature published earlier this week.

Below you'll find the Round 5 Tipping Preview with our heavily researched Latest of Late Mail going up from Thursday morning onwards. Keep track of game-day Late Mail via #NRLLateMail.

ROUND 5 2013
Wednesday Odds Courtesy of Sportingbet | NRL LADDER

Friday 7:45pm at ANZ Stadium
Tuesday Teams Analysed on NRL Injured List
@NRLTweet Player of the Year Award Voters:
Warrick Nicolson @NRLTweet Adrian McMurray @adrmcm |
Track live round votes via #NRLTweetPOTY
Is this the week Canterbury fire? The defending Minor Premiers would not have envisaged a 1-3 start with or without Ben Barba, so dropping to 1-4 isn't quite panic stations for the Top 8 but it is for a Top 4 spot. Manly have just been going about their business (bar sleeping in against the Titans) but I'm not convinced they have the pack right now to quell the Dogs up the middle (Though Eastwood out is a big concern). The Michael Ennis concussion is - believe it or not given my history of adoration for the hooker - a worry, he doesn't play - I'm picking Manly. Right now Ennis seems to think he is playing, so throw in some Barba and my two Josh's magic (that's Morris and Reynolds) and take the Bulldogs by 7.
Ennis is the big concern, if he doesn't come good then expect Joel Romelo in at hooker, alternating with Dene Halatau. Sam Kasiano has to be close... wait til Friday about 6:30pm to find out how close (he is out til early May with more ankle surgery). That would mean the end of the road for David Klemmer and Tim Browne in first grade for a while.
LATE UPDATE? Greg Eastwood is reportedly out, expect to see either Josh Jackson move to lock and Frank Pritchard start, or Dene Halatau come in at #13.
The Postman's DT/SC TIP: Time to sell David Klemmer if you can, his minutes are going to dissipate into nothingness very soon and Jack Stockwell isn't a bad swap.
Richie Fa'aoso is a certainty, while Tom Symonds is expected to keep Jamie Buhrer on the bench again. Steve Matai will apply the stick-tape and play.
LATE UPDATE? Manly should be 1-17.
The Postman's DT/SC TIP: Having put my faith in Jamie Buhrer to secure 80 minutes of about 35 tackles and 15 hitups a week with Watmough busted, Williams gone and Glenn Stewart hurt - I'm jumping off. He made you a bit of money early, but Symonds is Toovey's flavour of the month right now and Stewart isn't that far off returning. 
If you have a DT/SC question grab The Postman on Twitter @NRLTweet and I'll answer there.
Friday 7:45pm at Skilled Park (QLD Time)
TITANS $1.57 v $2.40 BRONCOS
Tuesday Teams Analysed on NRL Injured List
@NRLTweet Player of the Year Award Voters:
Ben Jones @benwah87 Matt Vickers @mercurialmattyv |
Track live round votes via #NRLTweetPOTY
The Gold Coast have burned a few of us so far this year... But I'm sure the 1-3 Broncos have burnt more. Brisbane aren't particularly good and now that Sam Thaiday is out suspended (quite rightly for pulling the shirt of the referee to make a point - no no no Sammy). He's going to be missed, make no mistake about that but how good are the Titans really? Their pack is good, their halves have proven to be good but that backline doesn't instill me with much confidence... right now if Justin Hodges plays and the Broncos get more out of Peter Wallace and Scott Prince than they have all season - I'm tipping Brisbane by 2 points. But I am a big big big chance of swapping to the Titans come Friday night - come back then for my final pick... no swapping - Sezer out and Hodges playing confirms my Wednesday pick.
Brad Takairangi remains a doubt with a hamstring strain, while Ashley Harrison is expected to play after recovering from his head knock. With Hodges in the lineup - don't be shocked to see Luke O'Dwyer and not Steve Michaels get the left centre spot if Takairangi is out.
LATE UPDATE? Matt Srama's shoulder injury won't keep him out, while Harrison and Takairangi are expected to play. AIDAN SEZER IS OUT WITH A HAMSTRING STRAIN, Bird to 5/8, Taylor starts, Michaels to bench.
The Postman's DT/SC TIP: I have read that Albert Kelly's time is up... I don't buy it. In that you shouldn't sell him yet. He's a running five-eighth - that means cheap points that don't come from kick and pass happy halves who rely on try assists for their points. Stick with him for a while yet esp in DT - for SC you can jump off due to his BE being a little higher but beware he might keep scoring.
Thaiday is OUT. So Scott Anderson is expected to start and Nick Slyney or Jarrod Wallace will get a bench spot. Hodges remains confident but we'll all wait til that hammy warms up before agreeing with him - Jordan Kahu is on standby.
LATE UPDATE? Hodges says he is good to go... but wait til the warm-up.
The Postman's DT/SC TIP: With Thaiday out, expect Ben Hannant to continue to get great minutes and he's been quietly going gangbusters the past fortnight. Thing is his BE isn't that tempting, so if you trade him in you do for the long haul - remember he's no guarantee for Origin in 2013 though. 
If you have a DT/SC question grab The Postman on Twitter @NRLTweet and I'll answer there.
Saturday 5:30pm at Parramatta Stadium
EELS $2.50 v $1.53 SHARKS
Tuesday Teams Analysed on NRL Injured List
@NRLTweet Player of the Year Award Voters:
Justin Davies @dragonpunk12 Matthew Duncan @mrpeninsula |
Track live round votes via #NRLTweetPOTY
Parramatta just got lapped by 50... but the Sharks turned it up against the hapless Dragons. So who to pick? Well I for one am not picking Parramatta any time soon, so Cronulla - even minus Todd Carney with a foot injury for a few weeks - it is. Plus I rate Chad Townsend and think Parra's carrying 3 or 4 passengers across the park - and even that might be unders. Go with Cronulla by 10 points, don't over-think things and regret doing that at about 7:20pm on Saturday night.
Could be plenty of changes... but given the Eels didn't both naming anything different to Round 4's lineup given it was a MNF game - watch this space when news comes to hand.
LATE UPDATE? Some talk Pat O'Hanlon could find his way onto the bench... no idea for who.
The Postman's DT/SC TIP: If you jumped on Chris Sandow then live with your decision... because you know if you jump off him this weekend - he'll put up another big score. What to do?
Townsend starts for Carney and Stapleton replaces Matt Wright. Really don't expect much to change outside of Bukuya maybe getting a run for Tagataese on the bench.
LATE UPDATE? Sharks should be 1-13 with the bench makeup the only variable.
The Postman's DT/SC TIP: Paul Gallen has been good this year per usual but despite 94 in SC and 63 in DT - his BE's are well above that. If he's not on your squad give it at least another week before you try and get some PG13 on your fork. But remember - Origin means Gallen is pretty much an NRL no-show. 
If you have a DT/SC question grab The Postman on Twitter @NRLTweet and I'll answer there.
Saturday 7:30pm at 1300SMILES Stadium
COWBOYS $1.25 v $4.00 PANTHERS
Tuesday Teams Analysed on NRL Injured List
@NRLTweet Player of the Year Award Voters:
Matt Trodden @trods2906 Matt Spillane @devonhead |
Track live round votes via #NRLTweetPOTY
If North Queensland don't win by 20+ it'll be stunning. Penrith aren't any good - they aren't Parramatta-terrible mind you - and the Cowboys have got the shakes after everyone talked them up as the biggest threat outside of Melbourne in the pre-season. But surely, surely they can't lose this one. At home in front of their fans on a steamy Townsville night - this just screams North Queensland drubbing of an inferior opponent. Given their recent form they could certainly prove me wrong but I don't think so, not with a 1-4 record staring them in the face should they lose. Cowboys by 20.
Neil Henry said there could be changes and he has brought Robert Lui in for Michael Morgan and maybe Scott Moore gets a rest (he does as predicted, with Anthony Mitchell coming in). Ashley Graham might also return, consigning Fe Fi Fo Fum (Kalifa Fai-Fai Loa) to QLD Cup. Ricky Thorby is also the new 18th man.
LATE UPDATE? We know Lui is in for Morgan, and Mitchell for Moore - both demoted players will play QLD Cup.
The Postman's DT/SC TIP: If the Cowboys win like they should - Bowen and Thurston could both crack 100 in SC and 65 in DT... if they are on your team give them this weekend to repay your faith.
Austin gets his big chance, while Cleary sends Walsh to NSW Cup. Cleary isn't a huge tinkerer so I don't expect much difference between this team named Tuesday and the one that gets swamped on Saturday night.
LATE UPDATE? Don't expect to see Luke Walsh, bench is about only thing that might change and Tim Grant might start.
The Postman's DT/SC TIP: Tom Humble is going to be out of a job in a few weeks if Austin sticks and Walsh is recalled... but he'll earn you some cash if you want to use up two trades on him. Your choice.
If you have a DT/SC question grab The Postman on Twitter @NRLTweet and I'll answer there.
Sunday 2:00pm at Mt Smart Stadium (NZ Time)
Tuesday Teams Analysed on NRL Injured List
@NRLTweet Player of the Year Award Voters:
Adrian McMurray @adrmcm Matt Trodden @trods2906 |
Track live round votes via #NRLTweetPOTY
Well the Warriors did a number on the Cowboys at home so why not the Rabbitohs? Well for one the Rabbits are 4-0 and another the Cowboys are now 1-3. Souths won't let complacency beat them like the Cowboys do - their coach has dropped enough veteran players in the opening month to ensure that when Souths get beat - it'll be on the merit of the other team outplaying them. While a win is still worth celebrating - the Warriors are a team that looks like they'll mosey around for the first ten weeks or so before getting too serious - so with the Bunnies focused on a great season from start to finish - take the Rabbitohs by 12.
Good news for the Warriors with Jerome Ropati, Russell Packer and Carlos Tuimavave making comebacks... in NSW Cup. Ropati played last weekend, while Packer and Tuimavave run out for the Auckland Vulcans. Interestingly Ropati wasn't named for Auckland, and Nielsen is carrying bad ribs so do the math there. Vatuvei if fit plays, with Laumape the man most likely to miss out.
LATE UPDATE? Ben Henry's head knock will likely keep him out, though Kevin Locke thinks he will play. Jacob Lillyman has an ankle concern as well with Russell Packer a possible replacement. Vatuvei is a near certainty for Laumape, while Nielsen remains 50/50.
The Postman's DT/SC TIP: Todd Lowrie has been reliability personified in a team that is anything but that. Kudos if you jumped on him before Round 1 - but don't go chasing him at his inflated price people. Invest your cash elsewhere if you are going to make a trade.
Which veteran gets the sack this weekend? I'm going with Ben Lowe in the sweepstakes, with Mick Crocker coming in. Otherwise the Rabbitohs should be as named.
LATE UPDATE? Apparently Crocker hasn't forced his way into the team, though wait until they board the plane to Auckland for confirmation.
The Postman's DT/SC TIP: Sam Burgess is playing 65-80 minutes a week, getting it DONE and is named at lock against the Warriors. So what's not to like? As sideways trades go - he's worth it and he won't play rep footy. His biggest threat is his health - like 90% of your DT/SC options.  
If you have a DT/SC question grab The Postman on Twitter @NRLTweet and I'll answer there.
Sunday 3:00pm at WIN Jubilee Oval
DRAGONS $2.25 v $1.65 KNIGHTS
Tuesday Teams Analysed on NRL Injured List
@NRLTweet Player of the Year Award Voters:
Ben Hoese @gunnermcdagget Maria Tsialis @mtsialis |
Track live round votes via #NRLTweetPOTY
Don't particularly like the Knights here but what's the alternative? Pick the Dragons? Not gonna happen. You can have your one win against a disinterested Sharks and I'll cop the wrong tip, but I'm not picking St George Illawarra based on that. Yet I'm not sold on the Knights if Kurt Gidley isn't playing 80 minutes... right now the Knights (3-1 somehow) are the lesser of two evils, and I'll take Newcastle by 7 points.
As always - expect a late change in the starting lineup. This week Jack de Belin and Leeson Ah Mau are back in the first grade mix and play if Dan Vidot and Michael Henderson get the punt. Don't expect Josh Drinkwater to play, not yet anyway.
LATE UPDATE? Henderson and de Belin are fighting with Ah Mau for a spot on the bench.
The Postman's DT/SC TIP: Somehow Jason Nightingale and Brett Morris keep piling up the points despite getting very little quality ball in attacking situations - but Morris is the one who has a high BE breathing down his neck. But if either are on your team odds are you are a Dragons fan - so you've gotta have faith they have better days ahead when they get decent service.
Gidley needs to pass his concussion test and apparently it was the first of his career - so the odds seem good that he plays (rightly or wrongly). I would be surprised if Timana Tahu forces his way into the starting team, and the same goes for Joseph Leilua who plays his first game of the year in NSW Cup. The only other doubt is James McManus who also copped a head knock against Canberra.
LATE UPDATE? There is talk Tahu could replace Quinn in the centres, which means McKinnon holds his spot.
The Postman's DT/SC TIP: Kurt Gidley is a funny one - because his price says it might be time to sell if you aren't convinced he's got big games in his future at hooker, yet he also will make 30+ tackles a game and maybe run it more than he did at halfback... so basically - you have to make the call - is Gidley a better DT/SC player at 9 or 7? If it's the latter - SELL.
If you have a DT/SC question grab The Postman on Twitter @NRLTweet and I'll answer there.
Sunday 6:30pm at Canberra Stadium
RAIDERS $2.55 v $1.50 ROOSTERS
Tuesday Teams Analysed on NRL Injured List
@NRLTweet Player of the Year Award Voters:
Greg Delaney @gregdelaney84 Ben Jones @benwah87 |
Track live round votes via #NRLTweetPOTY
Canberra suck and the Roosters just piled 50 on the Eels... So really the only question to ask yourself here is are the Roosters a good enough team to back up a shellacking with a controlled performance that will account for a rudderless Raiders team? That seems more likely than Canberra turning things around the way things seem to be game planned at the moment - simply holding the ball is pointless if you don't do anything with it. Yes Canberra could win this, but I'm still picking the Roosters by 6.
Anthony Milford needs David Furner to want to light a rocket under Sam Williams to get a run... and it might just happen. Dane Tilse is no certainty either on form, while Joel Thompson and Glen Buttriss should play despite shoulder worries. Jack Wighton and Sandor Earl are 50/50.
LATE UPDATE? Plenty of doubt still around Earl and Wighton, while Buttriss and Thompson expect to play.
The Postman's DT/SC TIP: Josh Papalii has a haircut and somehow that equated to him remembering how hard he is to tackle. His price is about what it was at the start of 2013 and his BE is low for Round 5 plus as far as job security goes he's very safe - so if you want a POD in your backrow - give the Papaya King a run.
Only question is do Luke O'Donnell and Aidan Guerra come straight back in?
LATE UPDATE? Down to O'Donnell v Guerra v Lui for that final bench spot.
The Postman's DT/SC TIP: Michael Jennings has been money for jam so far this season - averaging 53 in DT and 60 in SC - his BE's aren't that high either so if you think he's got more monster games in him leading into Origin - get on the Jennings train now.
If you have a DT/SC question grab The Postman on Twitter @NRLTweet and I'll answer there.
Monday 7:00pm at AAMI Park
STORM $1.18 v $4.75 TIGERS
Tuesday Teams Analysed on NRL Injured List
@NRLTweet Player of the Year Award Voters:
Warrick Nicolson @NRLTweet Nigel Wilbow @parramatters |
Track live round votes via #NRLTweetPOTY
Melbourne are 4-0, well rested and at home. The Tigers have three quality players, a bunch of stock standard first graders and Braith Anasta at halfback. You do the math. Storm by 16.
Melbourne get a long break from Good Friday to the Monday after the Monday that followed that Friday... - following? Thus the only change that might happen is Sisa Waqa coming into calculations in the backline but he probably plays one more game in NSW Cup first.
LATE UPDATE? Might be a change in the three-quarter line come kick-off (As predicted SISA WAQA IS IN! Duffie drops out) but with the long break - expect Melbourne 1-17.
The Postman's DT/SC TIP: Billy Slater torched the Broncos - scoring a hatrick and picking up a couple of try assists... well in SuperCoach anyway. He scored 120 in SC but only 50 in DT - which is a monumental difference. Given yours truly has Slater in both formats - it was sweet and sour checking the scores on Saturday. A swap for Ben Barba is well and truly on the cards in two or three weeks.
Bodene Thompson is named in the second row but it wouldn't be a shock to see Matt Bell or Ben Murdoch-Masila start instead. Otherwise there probably isn't anything much to discuss.
LATE UPDATE? Expect a reshuffle come kickoff but no new names in the squad.
The Postman's DT/SC TIP: Robbie Farah's BE is 87 in SC and 58 in DT - not astronomical but if the Storm swamp the Tigers and most importantly - Farah doesn't set up any points - then his BE could be really big next week. Thus if you can wait two weeks - Farah might be relatively cheap again.  
If you have a DT/SC question grab The Postman on Twitter @NRLTweet and I'll answer there.
 What are your tips for Round 5? 
Think you'll take any advice from our Awesome Foursome panel this year?
Let us know by commenting below or replying on Twitter.

SPECIAL FRIED RICE involves each tipster taking a 'certainty' in a set order, with the tipster with the highest score at the end of the year literally winning a mountain of Special Fried Rice. The SFR Order rotates every week and is a fun way to put your rice where your mouth is.
ROUND 5 SELECTIONS | The Awesome Foursome
Warrick D. Nicolson, The NRL Tweet
Bulldogs Broncos Sharks Cowboys Rabbitohs Knights Roosters Storm
LW: 4/8 | SEASON: 20/32
CBY -1.5 BRI +2.5 CRO -4.5 NQL -8.5
SOU -6.5 NEW -2.5 SYD -4.5 MEL -12.5
LW: 3/8 | SEASON: 17/32
Special Fried Rice: SHARKS over Eels (Has 4th Pick)
Season SFR: 3/4
Bulldogs Broncos Eels Cowboys Rabbitohs Knights Raiders Storm
LW: 4/8 | SEASON: 18/32
CBY -1.5 BRI +2.5 PAR +4.5 PEN +8.5
WAR +6.5 NEW -2.5 CAN +4.5 WTG +12.5
LW: 6/8 | SEASON: 16/32
Special Fried Rice: COWBOYS over Panthers (Has 2nd Pick)
Season SFR: 2/4 

Jake Hauritz, Channel 9 Darwin
Sea Eagles Titans Sharks Cowboys Rabbitohs Knights Roosters Storm
LW: 6/8 | SEASON: 24/32
MAN +1.5 GLD -2.5 CRO -4.5 NQL -8.5
SOU -6.5 NEW -2.5 SYD -4.5 WTG +12.5
LW: 3/8 | SEASON: 19/32
Special Fried Rice: STORM over Tigers (Has 1st Pick)
Season SFR: 3/4

DC Chapman, League Lover
Bulldogs Broncos Sharks Cowboys Rabbitohs Dragons Roosters Storm
LW: 4/8 | SEASON: 15/32
CBY -1.5 BRI +2.5 CRO -4.5 PEN +8.5
SOU -6.5 STI +2.5 SYD -4.5 WTG +12.5
LW: 2/8 | SEASON: 10/32
Special Fried Rice: RABBITOHS over Warriors (Has 3rd Pick)
Season SFR: 4/4

The NRL Injury List is updated regularly during each week of the season, making it an invaluable Fantasy and Tipping Tool alongside our Weekly NRL Previews once again.

Remember if you want game-specific Late Mail every week, then check out our Round Previews Every Wednesday and they are updated with all the very latest Late Mail on Friday.

If we are missing any players on this list - please comment below, reply on Twitter or email this address.
Who will take Ben Barba's mantle as champion in the 2013 @NRLTweet Player of the Year Awards?

The Prestigious Award returns for a 4th season in 2013.

@NRLTweet Player of the Year Award Voters:
Warrick Nicolson @NRLTweet | Nigel Wilbow @parramatters
Justin Davies @dragonpunk12 | Greg Delaney @gregdelaney84
Matt Spillane @devonhead | Matt Trodden @trods2906
Matt Vickers @mercurialmattyv | Ben Hoese @gunnermcdagget
Adrian McMurray @adrmcm | Matthew Duncan @mrpeninsula
Maria Tsialis @mtsialis | Ben Jones @benwah87

Review all of the voting results from 2012 right here

Remember you can track all the votes each week after each match in 2013 via the Twitter hashtag #nrltweetpoty