Monday 5 November 2012

2012 Melbourne Cup Bluffer's Guide

The Bluffer's Guide to the 2012 Melbourne Cup
By W D Nicolson - November 5, 2012
Welcome to the 5th Annual 'Bluffer's Guide to the Melbourne Cup'.

It has become a bit of a novelty here at every November, as we take a quick look at the huge field for the 3,200m race at Flemington and judge the horses in the race based on the quality of their name as much as anything.

This is our track record over the last four Melbourne Cups:
In 2008 - Bauer was picked to run 2nd and did.
In 2009 - Shocking was picked to run 4th and won.
In 2010 - Maluckyday was picked to run 2nd and did, So You Think was picked to run 1st and was 3rd, Americain was picked to run 5th and won and Harris Tweed was picked to run 3rd and finished 5th).
Dunaden beats Red Cadeaux at the line in 2011
And last year, in 2012 - American was picked to repeat and finished 4th, Dunaden was picked to run 4th and won, and Lucas Cranach was picked to run 5th and was 3rd.
So while the notes about the horses are what drives this piece, our track record picking runners to feature at the pointy end of the field isn't bad at all.

But you aren't here for the punting tips, you're here to see if for the 5th straight year I can come up with some moderately interesting lines pertaining to the competing horses in the 2012 Melbourne Cup field.

As we stress here on every year, think long and hard about what you could spend (or save) the excessive money you punt with on Melbourne Cup day... in short, don't be an idiot.

Anyhoo, to the Bluffer's Guide for another year and each horse has its current Sportingbet prices (as of 5/11/12) listed next to the horse's name and then you can read the Scouting Report.

Now all horses are listed in the barrier draw... 1 through 24, actual racing number is next to the name.
(Those horses listed below the field were scouted prior to the final field being culled)
A Noble name for this stallion... Roger Wilco would also be proud if it finds some space.
FIORENTE #11 @ $26
Taking time out from it's one horse campaign in the Italian Serie A... where it sits in a very credible 4th after 11 games. So look for a Top 6 finish here...
MOURAYAN #16 @ $26 
Late scratching last year, and that left punters wanting more...
SANAGAS #9 @ $51
Should sandwich itself amongst the field somewhere...
GREEN MOON $14 @ $16
The Pride of Endor. Enough said.
It was an Olympic year so... the $51 looks taaaaasty if you like those kind of instances.
MOUNT ATHOS #8 @ $7.50
Coolest name in the field... and can run apparently (has won its last three starts).
MALUCKYDAY #15 @ $14
I've actually heard of this horse... must be its _______?
KELINNI #24 @ $19
Is it just me or does this horse sound like a Scandavian white-goods company?
Funnily enough this horse does not have astronomical odds to win... shame.
Americain won the Cup in 2010
AMERICAIN #2 @ $4.80
Goes very very good... you don't need me to tell you about this French gun.
VOILA ICI #6 @ $151
If it wins at $151 it might receive an icy reception from favourite punters...
ETHIOPIA #10 @ $21
What a pity this horse isn't actually out of Africa...
NIWOT #18 @ $51
Never invest with other's tips.
DUNADEN #1 @ $7.50
Genius that won the Caufield Cup a week or two ago... and held of Red Cadeaux last year to win. Big fan.
Star... get it? Also has won every third time out in its 18 starts.
Means 'Red Gift' apparently... last year it was $23 and almost gifted its backers a huge payday... still at $9 you'll make a tidy profit.
One of the million flavour options at Boost Juice I believe...
PRECEDENCE #21 @ $101
I'd be checking out this horse's form if I were you...
Sounds like he should be a rowdy character in a bad US sitcom...
Hasn't lived up to its name for a while... has finished 6th, 9th, 9th and 9th in last four starts.
I did the Keyser Söze joke last year...
At $41 if you were to invest say 40 or 50 billion on this horse, you might just become a Zabeelionaire.

Ok that's the horses taken care of... now to the actual predictions.

Mount Athos is our tip for 2012
2012 PREDICTIONS as of November 5...
(I reserve the right to change once the final field is set, will lock in my selections by Tuesday 3pm)
1st - Mount Athos.
2nd -  Dunaden
3rd - Americain
Others -
4th - Red Cadeaux
5th - My Quest for Peace
6th - Lights of Heaven
Roughies - Fiorente $26 and Glencadam Gold $51.

Good luck.
So after that mishmash of referential wit, what are your Melbourne Cup selections?
Comment below or tweet me @wdnicolson