Friday 28 September 2012

NRL 2012: Grand Final Preview - Bulldogs v Storm Tips Teams Predictions Late Mail Podcast Odds

By W D Nicolson 

It's Grand Final time people!

We get to watch the two best teams go at it this weekend, when the Bulldogs face the Storm, and pass on commiserations to the other 14 teams for being practically useless in 2012.

The whole NOT The Footy Show gang has their intricate predictions for the big one below or on the Podcast - which if you've never listened to I suggest you give it a go this week, as it could be the last one we ever do.

NOT The Footy Show
Episode 128
NRL Grand Final Preview 
Released Wednesday September 26, 2012
Right Click Save Target As This Link if you don't have iTunes for the MP3 File

The current premiership market as it stands after Week 3:
$1.80 - STORM (W1: $4.00, W2: $3.50, W3: $3.25)
$2.05 - BULLDOGS (W1: $4.50, W2: $2.75, W3: $2.75)

Dogs were favourites until the bookies saw what Melbourne did to Manly in the prelim final. But really the Dogs shouldn't be far out of even money status as they match up well with the Storm.

If you want to hear who the NOT The Footy Show team likes for between the Bulldogs and Storm in Sunday's Grand Final - grab yourself our 2 hour NRL Grand Final Podcast (right click/save target as).

The Toyota Cup market after Week 3:
$1.55 - RAIDERS U20s (W1: $4.25, W2: $3.50, W3: $3.00)
$2.45 - TIGERS U20s (W1: $6.00, W2: $3.75, W3: $4.00)

After Week 3 - Well the one team that's had Canberra's number this season is... you guessed it - the Wests Tigers. This Grand Final will be decided by whoever defends for the longest, because both teams can attack with the best of them - and that's why they are here on Grand Final Day.

Kick-off is at 2pm at ANZ Stadium and we like the Raiders by 8 points.

Canberra's Edrick Lee, Mitch Cornish and Anthony Milford hold the key.

Now there will be a Man of the Match Award voted on Twitter for the NYC Grand Final (#NYCGF) - follow #NRLTweetPlayerofSeptember during the coverage, as we vote on the #NRLGF, NYC and #VBNSWCupGF throughout the day.

In the NSW Cup Grand Final - the Newtown Jets take on the Balmain-Ryde Tigers with kick-off at 12pm at ANZ Stadium.

 | To the NRL Grand Final and NOT The Footy Show delivers a full preview of Canterbury v Melbourne plus we go one on one with former NRL star Luke Patten... so join Warrick Nicolson, Maria Tsialis, Matthew Duncan, Nic McInerney, DC Chapman and Eyes is back for our final show - Episode 128.

Be sure to check all the Team news on the NRL Injured List which is updated every Tuesday afternoon - and the Podcast has plenty of insight on those selections and your Late Mail and Panel Picks are below.

All the panel's picks are below with their Special Fried Rice selections - which is our lock of the week but we can't choose the same team as what one of the other six tipsters has already selected.
28/09 Odds are courtesy of Sportingbet Australia
For some more insight into the markets check out NOT The Footy Show's resident betting maestro's site GT Tips
All Kick-Offs are LOCAL time.
Grand Final Late Mail... 
If you have any reputable mail - Let me know via @NRLTweet
#1 BULLDOGS (+1.5) $2.05 v $1.80 #2 STORM
CBY: B Barba, S Perrett, J Morris, K Inu, J Wright, J Reynolds, K Keating, A Tolman, M Ennis (c), S Kasiano, F Pritchard, J Jackson, G Eastwood.
Bench: J Graham, D Finucane, C Payne, D Stagg, D Halatau.
[Late Mail - The Bulldogs will not bring Dene Halatau into the Grand Final 17 unless there is an injury in the warm-up, with Corey Payne and Dale Finucane set to hold their spots on the bench. ]
MEL: B Slater, S Waqa, D Nielsen, W Chambers, J O'Neill, G Widdop, C Cronk, J Bromwich, C Smith (c), B Norrie, S Manu, R Hoffman, T Lowrie.
Bench: R Hinchcliffe, K Proctor, J Lowe, R Fa'aoso, R Kostjasyn, M Fonua, S Vave, A Quinn.
[Late Mail - Sisa Waqa will just have to get through the pre-game warmup to take his place, with Mahe Fonua beating out Anthony Quinn to be his shadow player on the day. Rory Kostjasyn and Siosia Vave will be the other leftover men who miss out on a spot on the final bench. Kevin Proctor may start for Sika Manu as well. ]
The reasons for the Dogs and Storm winning this Grand Final are well documented in our Podcast - so do yourself a favour and have a listen.
In short - the start is where the Dogs can lose the game... but having said that - Melbourne aren't the all conquering team they once were, if they have to chase points late I'm not sold they are up to that challenge, Big 3 or not.
And the other crucial factor is the Dogs getting away with slowing Melbourne's play the ball... the reason Melbourne grind teams out of games is they play the ball super quick and slow the game down in defence... up to the Dogs to convince Tony Archer and Ben Cummins that they aren't doing anything more than the Storm on GF day.
Gee the Dogs could win this, but I have to pick Melbourne. Both teams can hang on in a game, so this shouldn't be completely decided until the final 10 minutes... go with Melbourne though, by 4 points.

For more on how we see the Weekend unfolding, check out the Podcast and Preview below.
For game-specific Late Mail every week - check back on Friday (or if there's an earlier game, earlier) for all your tipping and fantasy game needs.
NOT The Footy Show TV is going to try and film one very last video at the GF on Sunday...
Luke Patten joins us to preview the Canterbury v Melbourne NRL Grand Final in our final show for 2012.
NOT The Footy Show Episode 128 - Where too much League is just about enough in our super sized final episode... which could be our final ever.
Download the mp3 version
Join host Warrick Nicolson as he previews the Decider with former NRL star Luke Patten, Maria Tsialis, Matthew Duncan, Jake Hauritz, Nic McInerney, DC Chapman and Eyes is back with his GF tip.
So you get a comprehensive preview of the Dogs-Storm and all our predictions in all our categories for the decider.
So How do the Bulldogs Win?
And How do the Storm win?
NOT The Footy Show answers those questions and more with all our Guests.
Luke Patten takes us through a few key areas from his time at the Steelers, Dragons and Bulldogs - in particular how a team reacts to Salary Cap penalties and do they use that as ammunition for a run at a title a couple of years later?
Also who can win the #NRLTweetPlayerofSeptember Award with just the Grand Final to go?
We recap the Queensland Cup Grand Final between Redcliffe and Wynnum, talk about Joey Johns and his impending Immortal status, celebrate the return of Roy and HG's Festival of the Boot on the ABC and look at why Tim Sheens got shafted and expect him to head to the Warriors in 2013.
NOT The Footy Show has been somewhat part of your life for 3 years and if this is the end, THANK YOU for listening.
NOT The Footy Show Episode 128
NRL Grand Final Preview - Released Wednesday September 26, 2012
Right Click Save Target As This Link if you don't have iTunes for the MP3 File

Subscribe to the Podcast via this link / Download mp3 version

LIKE the show on Facebook for all the latest updates.
NOT The Footy Show is done for 2012... we may have a sneaky NTFS at the GF Video for you but that's a maybe, not a promise.
This year not only do you get The NRL Tweet's Tips each week but the whole NOT The Footy Show team will have their picks listed by Thursday so you can back a smoky or a favourite by seeing who we all picked (or didn't pick).
TOTAL AFTER 26 ROUNDS - 115.5/192 @ 60.2%
SPECIAL FRIED RICE involves each tipster taking a 'certainty' in a set order, with the tipster with the highest score at the end of the year literally winning a mountain of Special Fried Rice.
Origin does not count in the panel tips, but DOES for competition
FT Score: MEL 20-16
HT Score: MEL 12-4
1st Tryscorer: Justin O'Neill
Last Tryscorer: Ben Barba
Clive Churchill Medallist: Cameron Smith
1st Penalty: Michael Ennis
1st Knock On: Sam Kasiano
Crowd: 82,367
LW: 2/2 | PLAYOFFS: 6/8
| REGULAR SEASON: 115.5/192

Final Special Fried Rice: BULLDOGS
Season SFR: 17/26
Not on Twitter
Nic McInerney, NTFS Co-Host
FT Score: MEL 28-20
HT Score: MEL 16-10
1st Tryscorer: Billy Slater
Last Tryscorer: Ben Barba
Clive Churchill Medallist: Gareth Widdop
1st Penalty: Greg Eastwood
1st Knock On: Aiden Tolman
Crowd: 81,769
LW: 2/2 | PLAYOFFS: 5/8
| REGULAR SEASON: 105.5/192

Final Special Fried Rice: PANTHERS
Season SFR: 15/26
Matt Duncan, 101.5 FM's SportsFever
FT Score: MEL 23-16
HT Score: MEL 11-10
1st Tryscorer: Billy Slater
Last Tryscorer: Cooper Cronk
Clive Churchill Medallist: Cooper Cronk
1st Penalty: James Graham
1st Knock On: Krisnan Inu
Crowd: 81,912
LW: 2/2 | PLAYOFFS: 5/8
| REGULAR SEASON: 105.5/192

Final Special Fried Rice: STORM
Season SFR: 15/26

Not on Twitter
DC Chapman, NTFS Co-Host
FT Score: MEL 24-20
HT Score: MEL 16-10
1st Tryscorer: Billy Slater
Last Tryscorer: Ben Barba
Clive Churchill Medallist: Cameron Smith
1st Penalty: Frank Pritchard
1st Knock On: Michael Ennis
Crowd: 81,537
LW: 1/2 | PLAYOFFS: 3/8
| REGULAR SEASON: 112.5/192

Final Special Fried Rice: DRAGONS
Season SFR: 12/26

Maria Tsialis, Big League Magazine
FT Score: CBY 20-18
HT Score: MEL 12-10
1st Tryscorer: Will Chambers
Last Tryscorer: Krisnan Inu
Clive Churchill Medallist: Aiden Tolman
1st Penalty: Michael Ennis
1st Knock On: Frank Pritchard
Crowd: 65,500
LW: 2/2 | PLAYOFFS: 6/8
| REGULAR SEASON: 109.5/192

Final Special Fried Rice: SEA EAGLES
Season SFR: 21/26

George 'GT' Taylor, GT's Tips Expert
Dogs to win...
LW: 0/2 | PLAYOFFS: 4/8
| REGULAR SEASON 106.5/192

Final Special Fried Rice: RABBITOHS
Season SFR: 15/26
Not on Twitter
Eyes, The Kid Who Sees All
FT Score: CBY 20 MEL 1
LW: 0/2 | PLAYOFFS: 3/8
| REGULAR SEASON 102.5/192

Eyes does not eat Special Fried Rice... yet.

Jake Hauritz, Nine News Darwin
FT Score: CBY 18-14
HT Score: CBY 10-4
1st Tryscorer: Ben Barba
Last Tryscorer: Will Chambers
Clive Churchill Medallist: Josh Reynolds
1st Penalty: Aiden Tolman
1st Knock On: Frank Pritchard
Crowd: 80,152

Make sure you enter NOT The Footy Show's Tipping Competition, the outright winner walks away with an Official Steeden Match ball!
1st Prize: NRL Match Steeden Ball. 2nd to 5th: NTFS Club Mascot T-Shirts.
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If you want a full 2012 NRL Season Preview you'll need to pick yourself up a copy of the 2012 Rugby League Almanac for just $10.00 - where every team is analysed in depth and our Predicted Ladder and Premiership pick is published.

So while you go grab a copy, here is the short sharp and boldly premature 2012 Prediction for each NRL Club. If you want our Final Ladder - see the Almanac.

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