Thursday 13 September 2012

NRL 2012: Finals Week 2 NRL Preview Tips Teams Predictions Late Mail Podcast Odds

By W D Nicolson 

Welcome to the first real set of great semi finals... well at least that's the hope here at because the four games we saw last weekend - only Friday and Sunday came close to genuine Finals Footy.

So let's hope the games just go up a notch or three in quality in Week 2.

But don't just expect to see it on TV - get to the game you lazy 'fans' - even if your team isn't playing, Finals Footy is the BEST there is. So get to it!

The current premiership market as it stands after Week 1:
$2.75 - BULLDOGS (LW: $4.50)
$3.50 - STORM (LW: $4.00)
$6.00 - SEA EAGLES (LW: $3.00)
$6.00 - COWBOYS (LW: $13.00)
$9.00 - RABBITOHS (LW: $6.00)
$17.00 - RAIDERS (LW: $26.00)

Canberra remain the 'extreme value' bet but Manly at $6 is highway robbery if you think they beat themselves last weekend... Dogs way too short for mine though.

If you want to hear who the NOT The Footy Show team likes for this weekend's semi finals - grab yourself our 60 minute NRL Finals Podcast (right click/save target as).

The Toyota Cup market after Week 1:
$3.50 - RAIDERS U20s (LW: $4.25)
$3.75 - TIGERS U20s (LW: $6.00)
$4.25 - WARRIORS U20s (LW: $4.50)
$5.00 - BULLDOGS U20s (LW: $3.50)
$9.00 - ROOSTERS U20s (LW: $11.00)
$11.00 - DRAGONS U20s (LW: $21.00)

After Week 1 - it's clear whichever of the six teams left in the Toyota Cup decides to defend - will win the title. Canberra and the Tigers have the week off, while the Warriors play the Roosters and Bulldogs take on the Dragons.

| To the NRL Finals for Week 2 and NOT The Footy Show delivers a full preview of both Manly v North Queensland and Canberra v South Sydney and plenty more... so join Warrick Nicolson, DC Chapman and Maria Tsialis for Episode 126.

So grab NOT The Footy Show for 60 minutes of Rugby League Peasantry.

Be sure to check all the Team news on the NRL Injured List which is updated every Tuesday afternoon - and the Podcast has plenty of insight on those selections and your Late Mail and Panel Picks are below.

All the panel's picks are below with their Special Fried Rice selections - which is our lock of the week but we can't choose the same team as what one of the other six tipsters has already selected.
13/09 Odds are courtesy of Sportingbet Australia
For some more insight into the markets check out NOT The Footy Show's resident betting maestro's site GT Tips
All Kick-Offs are LOCAL time.
Finals Week 2 Late Mail... 
If you have any reputable mail - Let me know via @NRLTweet
#4 SEA EAGLES $1.91 v $1.91 #5 COWBOYS
MAN: B Stewart, J Taufua, J Lyon (c), D Whare, M Oldfield, K Foran, D Cherry-Evans, J King (c), M Ballin, B Kite, A Watmough, T Williams, G Stewart.
Bench: J Buhrer, J Galuvao, D Lussick, V Mauro, G Rose.
[Late Mail - The Sea Eagles have lost Steve Matai who was suspended for one week for another high tackle, so Dean Whare moves to left centre and Michael Oldfield comes onto the right wing. If Jamie Lyon is not fit, Jamie Buhrer will go to the centres and George Rose join the bench OR it has been reported that Liam Foran could find his way into the lineup instead. ]
NQL: M Bowen, A Graham, B Tate, K Linnett, A Winterstein, J Thurston (c), M Morgan, M Scott (c), J Segearyo, J Tamou, G Cooper, G Hall, D Johnson.
Bench: J Taumalolo, A Sims, S Bolton, A Mitchell, J Riethmuller.
[Late Mail - North Queensland will be without Aaron Payne due to a knee injury suffered early in last weekend's final, expect James Segeyaro to start and Anthony Mitchell to make the final bench. ]
Both teams had a great end to the regular season, and Manly are actually the last team to beat the Cowboys back in Round 22 in Townsville. Manly are the defending champs but without Matai and potentially a lame Lyon - the Cowboys have a big chance here if they can get the game to open up. Manly need to keep it tight, and let DCE and Foran do the business.
Manly by 4... or 7. Something tells me Daly Cherry-Evans and Kieran Foran aren't ready to give up the title yet.

#3 RABBITOHS $1.42 v $2.95 #6 RAIDERS (+7.5)
SOU: G Inglis, N Merritt, A Everingham, D Farrell, J Hunt, J Sutton, A Reynolds, S Burgess, N Peats, R Asotasi, E Pettybourne, D Taylor, M Crocker.
Bench: J Clark, L Burgess, C McQueen, I Luke, B Lowe, D Tyrrell, S Corrigan.
[Late Mail - Souths have lost Matt King to an arm injury, so Andrew Everingham goes into the centres and Justin Hunt comes onto the wing. At this stage Nathan Merritt is playing despite a shoulder complaint. Shaune Corrigan is on standby in jumper 20 and Ben Lowe and Dave Tyrrell are unlikely to play despite Jason Clark having an ankle injury. Also Issac Luke may start, with Nathan Peats going back to the bench. ]
CAN: J Dugan, S Earl, J Thompson, B Ferguson, R Robinson, J McCrone, S Williams, D Shillington (c), G Buttriss, D Tilse, J Papalii, J Picker, S Fensom.
Bench: S Berrigan, J Wighton, M Nicholls, T Learoyd-Lahrs, J Kennedy, T Waddell, D Pelo.
[Late Mail - Jarrod Croker will miss with a fractured cheekbone so Joel Thompson goes into the centres and Joe Picker starts in the second row. Jack Wighton returns to first grade on the bench, while Travis Waddell, Jarrad Kennedy and Dimitri Pelo are the standby players. There is a decent chance Wighton could start at centre, but he's more likely to come off the bench late in the first half. ]
Souths were awful, Canberra were pretty good. But the Bunnies are a better side if they don't hand the game to Canberra like they did Melbourne last weekend. Conversely Canberra earned their win over Cronulla with a willingness to play footy... but truth be told this isn't the slam dunk some Souths fans think it is.
Souths get home by 1 or 20 if they decide to be more disciplined... but the Raiders are more than capable if the Rabbitohs open the door

For more on how we see the Weekend unfolding, check out the Podcast and Preview below.
For game-specific Late Mail every week - check back on Friday (or if there's an earlier game, earlier) for all your tipping and fantasy game needs.
NOT The Footy Show TV is taking a short hiatus - we will be back for the Grand Final, promise.
Can we solve the NRL fan no-shows at Semi Finals in Sydney?
NOT The Footy Show Episode 126 asks why don't NRL fans just go to the Finals even if their team isn't playing?
Join hosts Warrick Nicolson and DC Chapman as they preview both Semi Finals: Manly v Cowboys and Souths v Canberra with Maria Tsialis.
We also talk about the leaders for the #NRLTweetPlayerofSeptember Award, the NRL Museum at RL Central, the NRL Media Touch Footy Day and predict Over/Unders on the crowds at the SFS and ANZ this weekend.
Plus you find out what the 'D' stands for in and we have some GT Tips for you punters out there.
NOT The Footy Show one hour of footy stuff you simply cannot get anywhere else... and may not want to.
NOT The Footy Show Episode 126
NRL Finals Week 2 Preview - Released Wednesday September 12, 2012
Right Click Save Target As This Link if you don't have iTunes for the MP3 File

Subscribe to the Podcast via this link / Download mp3 version

LIKE the show on Facebook for all the latest updates.
NOT The Footy Show will release another Podcast on Sunday night - September 16 with our Semi Finals Review.
This year not only do you get The NRL Tweet's Tips each week but the whole NOT The Footy Show team will have their picks listed by Thursday so you can back a smoky or a favourite by seeing who we all picked (or didn't pick).
TOTAL AFTER 26 ROUNDS - 115.5/192 @ 60.2%
SPECIAL FRIED RICE involves each tipster taking a 'certainty' in a set order, with the tipster with the highest score at the end of the year literally winning a mountain of Special Fried Rice.
Origin does not count in the panel tips, but DOES for competition
Sea Eagles by 4
Rabbitohs by 1
LW: 2/4 | PLAYOFFS: 2/4
| REGULAR SEASON: 115.5/192

Final Special Fried Rice: BULLDOGS
Season SFR: 17/26
Not on Twitter
Nic McInerney, NTFS Co-Host
Cowboys by 6
Raiders by 6
LW: 3/4 | PLAYOFFS: 3/4
| REGULAR SEASON: 105.5/192

Final Special Fried Rice: PANTHERS
Season SFR: 15/26
Matt Duncan, 101.5 FM's SportsFever
Sea Eagles by 16
Rabbitohs by 1
LW: 1/4 | PLAYOFFS: 1/4
| REGULAR SEASON: 105.5/192

Final Special Fried Rice: STORM
Season SFR: 15/26

Not on Twitter
DC Chapman, NTFS Co-Host
Cowboys by 2
Raiders by 2
LW: 2/4 | PLAYOFFS: 2/4
| REGULAR SEASON: 112.5/192

Final Special Fried Rice: DRAGONS
Season SFR: 12/26

Maria Tsialis, Big League Magazine
Cowboys by 6
Rabbitohs by 10
LW: 3/4 | PLAYOFFS: 3/4
| REGULAR SEASON: 109.5/192

Final Special Fried Rice: SEA EAGLES
Season SFR: 21/26

George 'GT' Taylor, GT's Tips Expert
Sea Eagles by 4
Rabbitohs by 4
LW: 2/4 | PLAYOFFS: 2/4
| REGULAR SEASON 106.5/192

Final Special Fried Rice: RABBITOHS
Season SFR: 15/26
Not on Twitter
Eyes, The Kid Who Sees All
Cowboys by 6
Raiders by 6
LW: 3/4 | PLAYOFFS: 3/4
| REGULAR SEASON 102.5/192

Eyes does not eat Special Fried Rice... yet.
Make sure you enter NOT The Footy Show's Tipping Competition, the outright winner walks away with an Official Steeden Match ball!
1st Prize: NRL Match Steeden Ball. 2nd to 5th: NTFS Club Mascot T-Shirts.
|-| |-| |-|
If you want a full 2012 NRL Season Preview you'll need to pick yourself up a copy of the 2012 Rugby League Almanac for just $10.00 - where every team is analysed in depth and our Predicted Ladder and Premiership pick is published.

So while you go grab a copy, here is the short sharp and boldly premature 2012 Prediction for each NRL Club. If you want our Final Ladder - see the Almanac.

|-| |-| |-|
Catch NOT THE FOOTY SHOW in 2012
With our weekly NRL Podcasts - Subscribe via iTunes here.
Podcasts are normally available at 11pm each Wednesday.