Thursday 20 September 2012

NRL 2012: Finals Week 3 NRL Preview Tips Teams Predictions Late Mail Podcast Odds

By W D Nicolson 

Well we've reached the pointy end of the 2012 season everyone, and is cheering because as much as we enjoy bringing you our weekly preview, podcast and coveted Late Mail - we've only got one more edition after this one to go!

Happy days!

But that's with my team done in September after a surprising run into the finals, there are still four sets of fans who are living the dream for at least another week and here is a look at the odds entering the two Preliminary Finals.

The current premiership market as it stands after Week 2:
$2.75 - BULLDOGS (W1: $4.50, W2: $2.75)
$3.25 - STORM (W1: $4.00, W2: $3.50)
$4.00 - SEA EAGLES (W1: $3.00, W2: $6.00)
$5.75 - RABBITOHS (W1: $6.00, W2: $9.00)

Sea Eagles and even the Storm remain the value... as the big game experience of both teams gives them the edge once one of them get into the Grand Final. Dogs still too short unless they tear the Bunnies a new one on Saturday night.

If you want to hear who the NOT The Footy Show team likes for this weekend's Preliminary Finals - grab yourself our 84 minute NRL Finals Podcast (right click/save target as).

The Toyota Cup market after Week 2:
$3.00 - RAIDERS U20s (W1: $4.25, W2: $3.50)
$3.75 - ROOSTERS U20s (W1: $11.00, W2: $9.00)
$3.75 - DRAGONS U20s (W1: $21.00, W2: $11.00)
$4.00 - TIGERS U20s (W1: $6.00, W2: $3.75)

After Week 2 - Upset wins by the Roosters and Dragons make the Toyota Cup race interesting, as the Tigers and Raiders were the underdogs in their opening week semis... and now the Dogs and Warriors are gorn! Enjoy two good semis here people...

 | To the NRL Finals for Week 3 and NOT The Footy Show delivers a full preview of Melbourne v Manly and Canterbury v South Sydney plus plenty more (including a QLD Cup Grand Final Preview)... so join Warrick Nicolson, DC Chapman, Matthew Duncan and guest Adrian McMurray for Episode 127.

So grab NOT The Footy Show for 84 minutes of Rugby League!

Be sure to check all the Team news on the NRL Injured List which is updated every Tuesday afternoon - and the Podcast has plenty of insight on those selections and your Late Mail and Panel Picks are below.

All the panel's picks are below with their Special Fried Rice selections - which is our lock of the week but we can't choose the same team as what one of the other six tipsters has already selected.
20/09 Odds are courtesy of Sportingbet Australia
For some more insight into the markets check out NOT The Footy Show's resident betting maestro's site GT Tips
All Kick-Offs are LOCAL time.
Finals Week 3 Late Mail... 
If you have any reputable mail - Let me know via @NRLTweet
#2 STORM $1.65 v $2.30 #4 SEA EAGLES (+3.5)
MEL: B Slater, S Waqa, D Nielsen, W Chambers, J O'Neill, G Widdop, C Cronk, J Bromwich, C Smith (c), B Norrie, S Manu, R Hoffman, R Hinchcliffe.
Bench: T Lowrie, J Ryles, J Lowe, K Proctor, R Kostjasyn, M Fonua, R Fa'aoso.
[Late Mail - Jason Ryles will miss with a hamstring injury, Richie Fa'aoso or Rory Kostjasyn will make the bench as his replacement. Mahe Fonua is on standby for Will Chambers and a dodgy hamstring. Sika Manu will play. ]
MAN: B Stewart, J Taufua, J Lyon (c), S Matai, D Whare, K Foran, D Cherry-Evans, J King (c), M Ballin, B Kite, A Watmough, T Williams, G Stewart.
Bench: J Buhrer, J Galuvao, D Lussick, V Mauro, G Rose.
[Late Mail - Jason King's shoulder is kaput but he will probably play anyway, meaning the last spot on the bench comes down to Vic Mauro v George Rose. ]
Great matchup worthy of a Grand Final without 'salary cap' issues... but instead we get them in a Prelim Final and that's the next best thing.
If the Storm hold the middle then the Big 3 win the game, but if Manly win the physical battle - they could do a number on the Storm... leaning home team, just.
Taking Storm in Melbourne... just worried about Manly's front row holding Bromwich if King is no good.. but Sea Eagles better than a $2.30 outsider in a Preliminary Final.

#1 BULLDOGS $1.48 v $2.72 #3 RABBITOHS (+6.0)
CBY: B Barba, S Perrett, J Morris, K Inu, J Wright, J Reynolds, K Keating, A Tolman, M Ennis (c), S Kasiano, F Pritchard, J Jackson, G Eastwood.
Bench: J Graham, D Finucane, C Payne, D Stagg, D Halatau.
[Late Mail - The Bulldogs only added Dene Halatau to their squad from the team that won in the semi final against Manly but there's only a slim chance he replaces someone on the bench. ]
SOU: G Inglis, N Merritt, C McQueen, D Farrell, A Everingham, J Sutton, A Reynolds, L Burgess, I Luke, R Asotasi, S Burgess, D Taylor, M Crocker.
Bench: N Peats, D Tyrrell, E Pettybourne, B Lowe, J Hunt, J Clark.
[Late Mail - Nathan Merritt is back on the wing with Justin Hunt going to the bench and Jason Clark is added to the squad as well. Luke Burgess starts at prop, Sam Burgess into the backrow (where he played last weekend) and Ben Lowe and Dave Tyrrell look set to keep their spots on the bench. ]
South Sydney are a team that has to click from the get go and they can be very hard to stop, the Dogs however have won a few games when not at their best - but great starts were a huge factor in their minor premiership run. If Souths do their homework they can shut down Canterbury's two most effective set moves. but the Dogs could harass the Bunnies into error to square the ledger... hopefully there's at least 60,000 there on Saturday at ANZ..
Souths aren't going great... and the Dogs are nicely rested. Down to Barba and Reynolds v Sutton and Luke... because Greg Inglis will be great regardless. Dogs by 6.

For more on how we see the Weekend unfolding, check out the Podcast and Preview below.
For game-specific Late Mail every week - check back on Friday (or if there's an earlier game, earlier) for all your tipping and fantasy game needs.
NOT The Footy Show TV is taking a short hiatus - we will be back for the Grand Final, promise.
Just one win from the big one... and two wins from a ring.
NOT The Footy Show Episode 127 with Manly's Kieran Foran and Steve Matai on the eve of the Preliminary Finals.
Join hosts Warrick Nicolson and DC Chapman as they preview both Preliminary Finals: Melbourne v Manly and Canterbury v Souths with Matthew Duncan and Adrian McMurray.
We talk the sheer genius of the Video Referees these days, recap all the votes from Week 2 of the #NRLTweetPlayerofSeptember Award, Ask how has it been to be a South Sydney fan? Preview the Queensland Cup Grand Final between Redcliffe and Wynnum, Talk the standards that some mainstream media don't seem to get and predict more Over/Unders for the crowds at AAMI Park and ANZ Stadium this weekend.
NOT The Footy Show where you get a brand new Macca's burger to request next time you are out - for absolutely nothing... well just 84 minutes of your life.
NOT The Footy Show Episode 127
NRL Finals Week 3 Preview - Released Wednesday September 19, 2012
Right Click Save Target As This Link if you don't have iTunes for the MP3 File

Subscribe to the Podcast via this link / Download mp3 version

LIKE the show on Facebook for all the latest updates.
NOT The Footy Show will release another Podcast for our Grand Final Show next Wednesday September 25 AND A VIDEO!
This year not only do you get The NRL Tweet's Tips each week but the whole NOT The Footy Show team will have their picks listed by Thursday so you can back a smoky or a favourite by seeing who we all picked (or didn't pick).
TOTAL AFTER 26 ROUNDS - 115.5/192 @ 60.2%
SPECIAL FRIED RICE involves each tipster taking a 'certainty' in a set order, with the tipster with the highest score at the end of the year literally winning a mountain of Special Fried Rice.
Origin does not count in the panel tips, but DOES for competition
Storm by 2
Bulldogs by 6
LW: 2/2 | PLAYOFFS: 4/6
| REGULAR SEASON: 115.5/192

Final Special Fried Rice: BULLDOGS
Season SFR: 17/26
Not on Twitter
Nic McInerney, NTFS Co-Host
Storm by 3
Bulldogs by 13
LW: 0/2 | PLAYOFFS: 3/6
| REGULAR SEASON: 105.5/192

Final Special Fried Rice: PANTHERS
Season SFR: 15/26
Matt Duncan, 101.5 FM's SportsFever
Storm by 13
Bulldogs by 30
LW: 2/2 | PLAYOFFS: 3/6
| REGULAR SEASON: 105.5/192

Final Special Fried Rice: STORM
Season SFR: 15/26

Not on Twitter
DC Chapman, NTFS Co-Host
Sea Eagles by 4
Bulldogs by 8
LW: 0/2 | PLAYOFFS: 2/6
| REGULAR SEASON: 112.5/192

Final Special Fried Rice: DRAGONS
Season SFR: 12/26

Maria Tsialis, Big League Magazine
Storm by 1-12
Bulldogs by 1-12
LW: 1/2 | PLAYOFFS: 4/6
| REGULAR SEASON: 109.5/192

Final Special Fried Rice: SEA EAGLES
Season SFR: 21/26

George 'GT' Taylor, GT's Tips Expert
LW: 2/2 | PLAYOFFS: 4/6
| REGULAR SEASON 106.5/192

Final Special Fried Rice: RABBITOHS
Season SFR: 15/26
Not on Twitter
Eyes, The Kid Who Sees All
Sea Eagles by 6
Rabbitohs by 6
LW: 0/2 | PLAYOFFS: 3/6
| REGULAR SEASON 102.5/192

Eyes does not eat Special Fried Rice... yet.
Make sure you enter NOT The Footy Show's Tipping Competition, the outright winner walks away with an Official Steeden Match ball!
1st Prize: NRL Match Steeden Ball. 2nd to 5th: NTFS Club Mascot T-Shirts.
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If you want a full 2012 NRL Season Preview you'll need to pick yourself up a copy of the 2012 Rugby League Almanac for just $10.00 - where every team is analysed in depth and our Predicted Ladder and Premiership pick is published.

So while you go grab a copy, here is the short sharp and boldly premature 2012 Prediction for each NRL Club. If you want our Final Ladder - see the Almanac.

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