NRL FINALS WEEK 1 TIPPING PREVIEWBy W D Nicolson
Follow @NRLTweet
Here at www.wdnicolson.com we just love this time of year, in fact bar having your team actually part of Grand Final week - this is the best time of year for the footy fan.
So who is the real favourite?
Well the bookies have got it right at the moment, with Manly the defending premiers slightly ahead of the Storm and Bulldogs with the Rabbitohs and Cowboys the outsiders. Canberra, Brisbane and Cronulla won't get a serious look until they win two semi finals in a row.
The current premiership market stands at:
$3.00 - SEA EAGLES
$4.00 - STORM
$4.50 - BULLDOGS
$6.00 - RABBITOHS
$13.00 - COWBOYS
$26.00 - BRONCOS, RAIDERS
$41.00 - SHARKS
If you want to hear who the NOT The Footy Show team likes as Grand Finalists and Premiers this spring - grab yourself our 54 minute NRL Finals Podcast (right click/save target as).
The Toyota Cup market is also worth a quick look:
$3.50 - BULLDOGS U20s
$4.25 - RAIDERS U20s
$4.50 - WARRIORS U20s
$6.00 - TIGERS U20s
$11.00 - ROOSTERS U20s
$17.00 - PANTHERS U20s
$21.00 - DRAGONS U20s, RABBITOHS U20s
The Raiders have a hugely talented backline but in Toyota Cup - most teams can score points. It'll be the teams that can defend that will get themselves to the Grand Final in the NYC - so go with the team that you've seen actually defend this year.
Good luck to all the teams - NRL or NYC - left in the running, and just enjoy this time of year everyone - it is a LONG off-season.
| To the NRL Finals for Week 1 and NOT The Footy Show delivers our new addition to the #BringTheNoise song campaign and preview all four games in depth and with actual football analysis. Trust us.So grab NOT The Footy Show for 54 minutes of Rugby League Royalty...
Be sure to check all the Team news on the NRL Injured List which is updated every Tuesday afternoon - and the Podcast has plenty of insight on those selections and your Late Mail and Panel Picks are below.
All the panel's picks are below with their Special Fried Rice selections - which is our lock of the week but we can't choose the same team as what one of the other six tipsters has already selected.
06/09 Odds are courtesy of Sportingbet Australia
For some more insight into the markets check out NOT The Footy Show's resident betting maestro's site GT Tips http://www.gttips.co.uk
All Kick-Offs are LOCAL time.
If you have any reputable mail - Let me know via @NRLTweet
#1 BULLDOGS (+2.5) $2.15 v $1.73 #4 SEA EAGLES
CBY: B Barba, S Perrett, J Morris, K Inu, J Wright, J Reynolds, K Keating, A Tolman, M Ennis (c), S Kasiano, F Pritchard, J Jackson, G Eastwood.
Bench: J Graham, D Finucane, C Payne, D Stagg, D Halatau, M Taupau.
Bench: J Graham, D Finucane, C Payne, D Stagg, D Halatau, M Taupau.
[Late Mail - The Bulldogs are unlikely to hand Dene Halatau a spot on the bench given the job Corey Payne and Dale Finucane have done this year. ]
MAN: B Stewart, J Taufua, J Lyon (c), S Matai, D Whare, K Foran, D Cherry-Evans, J King (c), M Ballin, B Kite, A Watmough, T Williams, G Stewart.
Bench: J Buhrer, J Galuvao, D Lussick, V Mauro, G Rose.
Bench: J Buhrer, J Galuvao, D Lussick, V Mauro, G Rose.
[Late Mail - The Sea Eagles will likely keep Vic Mauro over George Rose on the bench. ]
Canterbury are the minor premiers but Manly are the favourites... make of that what you will. They split their two games this year, with the team that had the most chances to win losing and the team that defended like terriers winning. For me this is Canterbury's 'grand final' in the sense that they know that getting another win over Manly will be a huge confidence booster, as for the Sea Eagles - win or lose they are in Sydney next week and still every chance of defending their title.
Dogs by 2 in a great match, decided by Krisnan Inu's boot... maybe from touch.
#2 STORM $1.65 v $2.30 #3 RABBITOHS (+4.0)
MEL: B Slater, S Waqa, J O'Neill, D Nielsen, A Quinn/M Fonua, G Widdop, C Cronk, J Bromwich, C Smith (c), J Ryles, S Manu, R Hoffman, R Hinchcliffe.
Bench: R Kostjasyn, B Norrie, J Lowe, K Proctor, R Fa'aoso, S Vave.
Bench: R Kostjasyn, B Norrie, J Lowe, K Proctor, R Fa'aoso, S Vave.
[Late Mail - The Storm lose Anthony Quinn and at this stage Mahe Fonua could get the start on the wing. Richie Fa'aoso and Siosaia Vave will be the extra men. ]
SOU: G Inglis, N Merritt, M King, D Farrell, A Everingham, J Sutton, A Reynolds, S Burgess, N Peats, R Asotasi, E Pettybourne, D Taylor, M Crocker.
Bench: J Clark, L Burgess, C McQueen, I Luke, B Lowe, D Tyrrell, J Hunt.
Bench: J Clark, L Burgess, C McQueen, I Luke, B Lowe, D Tyrrell, J Hunt.
[Late Mail - Souths will cut Ben Lowe, Dave Tyrrell and Justin Hunt from their bench. ]
| BOTTOM LINE |
This is a huge chance for the Bunnies to get their premiership campaign off to great start because despite the presence of Smith, Slater and Cronk - Melbourne are not playing well. They are playing ok and have a good 5 match winning streak under their belts entering September (after losing 6 from 7 before that) but South Sydney's pack is their strength and that's where Melbourne look vulnerable. If the Storm win it's because Reynolds and Sutton do didly... but look for Luke to have a huge game off the bench and a guy called Inglis.
Souths by 1 - in regulation or golden point. Like Manly though, Melbourne not overly phased.
| BOTTOM LINE |This is a huge chance for the Bunnies to get their premiership campaign off to great start because despite the presence of Smith, Slater and Cronk - Melbourne are not playing well. They are playing ok and have a good 5 match winning streak under their belts entering September (after losing 6 from 7 before that) but South Sydney's pack is their strength and that's where Melbourne look vulnerable. If the Storm win it's because Reynolds and Sutton do didly... but look for Luke to have a huge game off the bench and a guy called Inglis.
Souths by 1 - in regulation or golden point. Like Manly though, Melbourne not overly phased.
Bench: J Segeyaro, J Taumalolo, A Sims, S Bolton, J Riethmuller, A Mitchell.
[Late Mail - North Queensland have Gavin Cooper still in doubt with a shoulder injury, and Joel Riethmuller is on standby. ]
BRI: J Hoffman, G Beale, J Reed, J Hodges, D Copley, C Norman, P Wallace, B Hannant, A McCullough, P Civoniceva, A Glenn, S Thaiday (c), C Parker.
Bench: B Hunt, J McGuire, B Te'o, M Gillett.
Bench: B Hunt, J McGuire, B Te'o, M Gillett.
[Late Mail - Brisbane were back at full strength last week and have no changes, but Thaiday, Reed, Parker, Hannant, Gillett and Glenn are all carrying injuries. ]
| BOTTOM LINE |
This game is decided up front - North Queensland are stacked in the starting prop department and Brisbane look great on paper... but one has earned that wrap this year. However if Cooper misses, that's a big loss for the Cowboys and he's JT's protector... so watch for Gillett, Thaiday and Te'o to run at JT all night. But it's hard not to back JT/Bowen v Wallace/Norman if the forwards cancel each other out.
Cowboys by 6 and they deserve favouritism but the Broncos at that price aren't a bad bet by any means.
| BOTTOM LINE |This game is decided up front - North Queensland are stacked in the starting prop department and Brisbane look great on paper... but one has earned that wrap this year. However if Cooper misses, that's a big loss for the Cowboys and he's JT's protector... so watch for Gillett, Thaiday and Te'o to run at JT all night. But it's hard not to back JT/Bowen v Wallace/Norman if the forwards cancel each other out.
Cowboys by 6 and they deserve favouritism but the Broncos at that price aren't a bad bet by any means.
CAN: J Dugan, S Earl, J Croker, B Ferguson, R Robinson, J McCrone, S Williams, D Shillington (c), G Buttriss, D Tilse, J Papalii, J Thompson, S Fensom.
Bench: S Berrigan, J Picker, M Nicholls, T Learoyd-Lahrs, J Kennedy, T Waddell, D Pelo.
[Late Mail - Sam Williams and Josh Dugan return from injury and that means Jarrad Kennedy, Travis Waddell and Dimitri Pelo miss out. ]
CRO: M Wright, J Williams, R Leutele, C Best, N Stapleton, T Carney, J Robson, B Gibbs, I De Gois, B Ross, J Smith, A Tupou, P Gallen (c).
Bench: A Fifita, M Taufua, J Morris, J Bukuya, T Frizell, S Tagataese, W Graham.
Bench: A Fifita, M Taufua, J Morris, J Bukuya, T Frizell, S Tagataese, W Graham.
[Late Mail - Wade Graham will play and so will Matt Wright and Anthony Tupou, but Ben Pomeroy is suspended and Ricky Leutele will replace him in the centres. Tyson Frizell will be 18th man, while Mark Taufua or Jayson Bukuya miss out to cater for Graham's inclusion. Nathan Gardner is considered a long long long shot. ]
| BOTTOM LINE |
Canberra might have a 5 match win streak that includes a win over the Dogs but the other 4 teams were struggling... conversely the Sharks are 1-2 from games with Souths, Melbourne and North Queensland. Call it scepticism but the Raiders aren't the all conquering team some experts reckon they could be and Cronulla have Paul Gallen playing out of his mind at the moment. Cronulla win the ruck they win the game, but if it becomes a shootout and Canberra hold the ball - then the home team is actually capable of winning.
Sharks by 8... yes that many.
| BOTTOM LINE |Canberra might have a 5 match win streak that includes a win over the Dogs but the other 4 teams were struggling... conversely the Sharks are 1-2 from games with Souths, Melbourne and North Queensland. Call it scepticism but the Raiders aren't the all conquering team some experts reckon they could be and Cronulla have Paul Gallen playing out of his mind at the moment. Cronulla win the ruck they win the game, but if it becomes a shootout and Canberra hold the ball - then the home team is actually capable of winning.
Sharks by 8... yes that many.
For more on how we see the Weekend unfolding, check out the Podcast and Preview below.
For game-specific Late Mail every week - check back on Friday (or if there's an earlier game, earlier) for all your tipping and fantasy game needs.
IN THE PODCAST...
We reveal the new NRL Finals Theme Song and Preview all the Semi-Finals!NOT The Footy Show Episode 124 has our take on what the NRL should have chosen as their Finals Theme Song, Why Brian Smith should take his talents to Auckland, In-depth previews of Canterbury-Manly, Melbourne-Souths, Cowboys-Broncos and Canberra-Cronulla Semi Finals, Best Bets of the Weekend, plus our expert Grand Final and Premiership picks.
So join hosts Warrick Nicolson and DC Chapman, as they talk to Matthew Duncan and George Taylor about all things Finals Week 1 of the 2012 Playoffs.
We talked to a host of Manly and Cronulla players this week but ran out of time to put them all in.
PS. Nice to see the Dally Ms copy The @NRLTweet Player of the Year Awards... again, congrats Benny Barba.
NOT The Footy Show 54 minutes of footy talk that warms the cockles...
NRL Finals Week 1 Preview - Released Thursday September 6, 2012
Right Click Save Target As This Link if you don't have iTunes for the MP3 File
Subscribe to the Podcast via this link / Download mp3 version
NOT The Footy Show will release another Podcast on Sunday night - September 9 with our Qualifying Finals Review.
This year not only do you get The NRL Tweet's Tips each week but the whole NOT The Footy Show team will have their picks listed by Thursday so you can back a smoky or a favourite by seeing who we all picked (or didn't pick).