Latest NOT The Footy Show Podcasts

Monday, 12 April 2010

NHL Playoff Preview - 2010 - wdnicolson.blogspot.com

2010 NHL PLAYOFF PREVIEW

Incredibly the NHL's Regular Season is done and dusted for 2009/2010 - where have the last 7 months (and 1,230 NHL games for that matter) gone?

The Stanley Cup Champion Pittsburgh Penguins (backstopped once again by Marc-Andre Fleury who made THAT save LEFT) will mount their defence from the 4th seed position in the Eastern Conference (the same seed as last season), while the team they defeated last June - the Detroit Red Wings will try and make it a three-peat of Penguins-Red Wings Finals from the unfamiliar 5th seed in the Western Conference (they were 2nd last season).

The dominant team of the Regular Season was the Washington Capitals who took out the President's Trophy with a 54 win and 121 point season. Their nearest challenger for the first silverware handed out in 2009/2010 was the San Jose Sharks who claimed the top seed in the Western Conference with 51 wins and 113 points.

So onto to the Playoff Predictions for Round 1... and free of charge we give you our predictions for the second and third rounds and picks for the combatants of the 2009/2010 Stanley Cup Finals.

What are your picks?

Conference Quarter Finals - Predictions


EASTERN CONFERENCE
#1 Washington CAPITALS
v
#8 Montreal CANADIENS
Quarter Final Preview: This series starts and ends with Alexander Ovechkin right? There isn't a more dominant player in the NHL and he happens to play on the team that was the most dominant in the NHL during the regular season. His supporting cast of Mike Green, Nicklas Backstrom, Alexander Semin and the now under-rated Jose Theodore (how weird is it not saying 'over-rated'?) will be looking to oust the Penguins for Eastern Conference supremacy this spring but first they need to account for the Montreal Canadiens. The Habs don't suck - they have some playoff veterans in Scott Gomez, Brian Gionta, Roman Hamrlik and Hal Gill and a couple of long term Canadiens who could take their regular season success and have a big say in this series in Tomas Plekanec (70 points) and Andrei Markov (34pts in 45games). Jose Theodore v Jaroslav Halak is an underwhelming goaltending matchup, but it could very well be Semyon Varlamov v Carey Price if the coaches get jittery. This series could be very entertaining if the Caps offence goes unchecked...
Bottom Line: The Caps have goals-a-go-go in them and the only way Montreal have a say in this series is for goaltender Halak to stand on his head for 7 games. That seems unlikely... Caps in 5.

#2 New Jersey DEVILS
v
#7 Philadelphia FLYERS
Quarter Final Preview: The Flyers overcame a final weekend challenge by the New York Rangers to qualify for the Playoffs and get to face the New Jersey Devils and a now in-form Martin Brodeur in the first round. Philly have some stars on the roster in Mike Richards, Jeff Carter, Daniel Briere, Simon Gagne and of course Chris Pronger but a pathetic start to their 2009/2010 campaign saw them barely scrape into the playoffs. The Devils have been consistent all season long and having Brodeur back to form for the playoffs is an ominous sign. Up front Zach Parise is an irresistible force (38 goals & 81 points) and gets good support from Travis Zajac and veterans Patrick Elias and Jamie Langenbrunner. Oh yeah - New Jersey also has Ilya Kovalchuk on its roster for the playoffs... he's handy. Clutch scoring and goaltending is the Devils' strength going into this series - but will the Flyers big forwards push around the New Jersey D?
Bottom Line: When the goaltending matchup features Martin Brodeur v Brian Boucher in net... you have to pick the Devils in 5.

#3 Buffalo SABRES
v
#6 Boston BRUINS
Quarter Final Preview: Ryan Miller was the story of the 2010 Winter Olympics in Vancouver and for one playoff round at least he'll be the story in the playoffs. The Bruins never addressed their lack of goal-scoring punch at the trade deadline (they had just ONE 20-goal scorer and Marco Sturm only had 21) and the presence of Miller and the strong team-defence of the Sabres looks good enough to outlast the Bruins, in a series that could go the distance. Will Tuukka Rask hold onto the starting goaltender's job for the Bruins if the Sabres take an early lead? Or will Tim Thomas take the reigns if Rask falters only for an instant? The Sabres have no such issues in net with Miller and their prime goalscorer Thomas Vanek had 5 goals in the final 2 regular season games - a great omen for the playoffs. Rookie blueliner Tyler Myers was outstanding this season and could prove to be more than a match for Boston's star defenceman Zdeno Chara in a key matchup.
Bottom Line: The Sabres have home ice for the first two games and if the Bruins don't get standout goaltending from whoever coach Claude Julien goes with - the advantage is with the Sabres... albeit still in 7 games.

#4 Pittsburgh PENGUINS
v
#5 Ottawa SENATORS
Quarter Final Preview: The Penguins find themselves back in the same situation as last spring - a tough first round opponent but high expectations for a long playoff run. This time the Ottawa Senators will be out to end the Stanley Cup defence early but they will have to do it without Alexei Kovalev - a massive loss. Pittsburgh didn't have the services of last year's Conn Smythe winner Evgeni Malkin for parts of the last month but he had 4 points alongside Sidney Crosby (5 points including his 50th & 51st goals of the year) in the regular season finale against the Islanders. Jason Spezza and Daniel Alfredsson will carry the Senators offence in this series but the play of goaltender Brian Elliott will have to be beyond stunning to make this go back to Ottawa for a Game 6. Pittsburgh will roll out superstar duo Crosby and Malkin ahead of Sergei Gonchar and Marc-Andre Fleury and a supporting cast that is both playoff tested and boltered by some new faces eager for a crack at the dance. On paper the Senators need a miracle.
Bottom Line: As long as the Penguins don't take Ottawa lightly - their all-star core will use this series as a nice warm up for their likely second round opponents - Washington. Pens in 4.

WESTERN CONFERENCE - To be added.

#1 San Jose SHARKS
v
#8 Colorado AVALANCHE
Quarter Final Preview: Shock horror - the San Jose Sharks are the #1 seed in the West! Seriously though the fact the Colorado Avalanche are IN the playoffs at all is truly a shock. Goaltender Craig Anderson, rookie head coach Joe Sacco and a bunch of rookies have given the Avs a chance at a Cindarella story but the San Jose Sharks have so much to prove this spring that you can't see the fairytale coming true this year. The Sharks are loaded at forward with Dany Heatley (39 goals) and Patrick Marleau (44 goals) likely to form a dominant unit alongside Joe Thornton (69 assists and 89 points) - either on the power play or on the Sharks top line. The supporting cast is solid with Devin Setoguchi and Joe Pavelski scoring 20 goals each and Dan Boyle adding 58 points from the blueline. But goaltender Evgeni Nabokov will not be a San Jose Shark if he fails in these playoffs... 44 wins in 71 starts is impressive but he's impressive every regular season. The team could really use a big playoff performance from veteran Rob Blake as teams will be looking to shut down Boyle first and foremost in the game plan. For Colorado they need Anderson to be stellar in every game (38 wins & 7 shutouts for the season suggests he may be up to it) but the offence needs to click from Game One with the pressure on Milan Hejduk (23 goals), Matt Duchene (24 goals), Chris Stewart (20 goals), late season acquisition Peter Mueller (9 goals in 15 games) and playmaker Paul Stastny (59 assists) to replicate their regular season numbers. The Avs didn't have a dominant defenceman and it's hard to see anyone outside of Kyle Quincey stepping up... yes Kyle Quincey is Colorado's potential shining light on the blue line... uh oh. (alright we'll give you Jean-Michael Liles but he's never blossomed like everyone expected).
Bottom Line: San Jose must make a run to the Conference Finals at the very least in order to not waste yet another great regular season. It all starts with a 5 game handling of the Avalanche but in truth needs to end with a Stanley Cup Finals appearance... they certainly have the talent to do it (and yes, we say that every year).

#2 Chicago BLACKHAWKS
v
#7 Nashville PREDATORS
Quarter Final Preview: You've gotta admire the Nashville Predators ability to make the playoffs with the roster they have. They have missed just once in the past five seasons (by 3 points in 2008/2009) and qualify in 7th spot to get a matchup against a Western Conference heavyweight in the Chicago Blackhawks. Seriously name Nashville's best player - not only this season but since they started making the playoffs in 2003/2004 - it isn't easy is it? That's the reason they are such a good team but also the reason they haven't advanced past the first round once. The Blackhawks added Marian 'Stanley Cup Finals Curse' Hossa in the off-season and although he's been solid (51 points in 57 games), Chicago fans will expect at least 10 goals from him this playoff campaign. He's surrounded by stars in Chicago with Patrick Kane (30 goals), Jonathan Toews (68 points in 76 games) and defenceman Duncan Keith (69 points) ready to rumble in the playoffs (the Blackhawks also had Patrick Sharp, Troy Brouwer & Kris Versteeg pass 20 goals). But the loss of Brian Campbell to an Alexander Ovechkin hit induced injury (back possibly in May) is seen as the one thing holding the Blackhawks back from a Stanley Cup run... oh and goaltending.
Antti Niemi will start Game One (he had 26 wins in 35 starts with 7 shutouts) ahead of Cristobal Huet (26 wins in 46 starts) but who starts Game Two through Seven is anyone's guess if the Blackhawks falter early in the series. The Predators are a little more settled in net with Pekka Rinne (32 wins in 54 starts with 7 shutouts) the starter but Dan Ellis is a handy #2. For Nashville to prevail their forwards must spread the scoring and the team defence needs to hold firm... but in truth they need a Jason Arnott to stand up and score 8 goals in the series for Nashville to really put Chicago out on their butt in the first round.
Bottom Line: Chicago have the firepower to blow Nashville away in a sweep but I'm giving the Predators some credit and if Rinne can steal a game on the road the Blackhawks might have to go the distance and win in 7 games.

#3 Vancouver CANUCKS
v
#6 Los Angeles KINGS
Quarter Final Preview: How good was it to see the LA Kings finally have a good season? Mind you they slipped up in the season's second half to only claim a 6th seed in the West but their presence in the playoffs is a breath of fresh air. Their opponents the Vancouver Canucks have massive expectations entering the spring - with a true Stanley Cup or bust feel about the team. They think they are good enough to make a Cup Run but they'll have to deal with the upstart Kings first. Roberto Luongo delivered gold on the Olympic stage for Canada and for as long as you can remember he's been the best young goalie in the game... now he's 31 years old and has yet to play in a Cup Final. Heck he's never got past the second round and has only played playoff hockey twice in his career! For all his talent this is the playoff run that will have the most to say about his hockey legacy... his opponent in net is Jonathan Quick - who has had an amazing start to his NHL career - and significantly he's done that playing for the Kings! Luongo had 40 wins on the year but Quick was right behind him with 39 - plus they both had 4 shutouts. It is an intriguing goaltending duel and one that the Canucks will expect to win. Henrik Sedin took out his first Art Ross with a whopping 112 points and twin brother Daniel had 85 in just 63 games (projected to 111 points in 82 games) - so it's clear these two are the heartbeat of the Vancouver offence. Alexandre Burrows and Mikael Samuelsson both cracked 30 goals, while Mason Raymond, Ryan Kesler and the Sedins all had at least 25. The goals are there entering the playoffs but the wildcard is veteran Pavol Demitra who despite only having 3 goals in 28 games during an injury interrupted regular season - has 21 playoff markers, more than anyone else on the team. The Kings will throw Anze Kopitar (81 points), Dustin Brown (24 goals) and playoff veteran Ryan Smyth (25 career playoff goals) onto the ice to try and counter the Vancouver offence but it will be their defence headed by Rob Scuderi, Sean O'Donnell and youngsters Drew Doughty and Jack Johnson who hold LA's playoff hopes in their hands. There are some defensive minded forwards who can be a factor too in Michal Handzus and Jeff Halpern but if the Los Angeles D can't hold firm - the Kings will get beaten.
Bottom Line: The Kings might spring a surprise if their offence gets going early but Luongo has a point to prove and the you can expect the Sedins to keep right on scoring as the Canucks roll to series win in 5 games.

#4 Phoenix COYOTES
v
#5 Detroit RED WINGS
Quarter Final Preview: Did anyone in their right mind (inside or outside the Phoenix organisation for that matter) expect the Coyotes to be the #4 seed in the Western Conference come playoff time? Even the most wildly optimistic fan or official might've hoped for a playoff birth but FOURTH! Wow that's impressive for a team who had (and may still have) an uncertain future entering the season. Relieving 'The Great One' of his head coaching duties seems like the best decision of the decade by a GM and as harsh as it sounds - it was totally the right call to punt Wayne Gretzky even if Phoenix hadn't put together such a great season under his replacement Dave Tippett. On the flip side the Red Wings have been to the playoffs in each of coach Mike Babcock's five seasons at the helm and have two trips to the Stanley Cup Finals and one championship to show for it.
On the ice the Coyotes need huge production from their offensive stars like Shane Doan, Wojtek Wolski, Matthew Lombardi, Radim Vrbata Shane Doan and Lee '14 goals in 18 Games in Phoenix' Stempniak because the Red Wings own attacking arsenal of Pavel Datsyuk, Henrik Zetterberg, Johan Franzen, Todd Bertuzzi & Tomas Holmstrom will produce since it's spring (although it is a shock to see Datsyuk as their leading goalscorer with just 27 goals in the regular season). The bluelines feature experience corps of Detroit (headlined by Nicklas Lidstrom & Brian Rafalski) vs the surprisingly successful Coyotes unit that helped the team to 50 wins (an improvement of 14 on 2008/2009). If Phoenix have an edge it is in net with Vezina contender Ilya Bryzgalov facing Detroit's Jimmy Howard - the latter of which has zero minutes played in the playoffs. Bryzgalov has been incredible in the two playoff campaigns he had with the Ducks (9-5 with a 1.68gaa, 3 shutouts & a .937 sv%) and had 42 wins in the regular season with the Coyotes as the unquestioned #1. Howard (39 wins) has held veteran Chris Osgood at bay for most of the season but you can't help but wonder if he falters in Game 1 & 2 - will Babcock go straight to the proven playoff performer in Osgood.
Bottom Line: Detroit didn't have the regular season we've come to expect of this unit but they aren't as loaded as in year's past either... but they have superstars who know what it takes to win in the playoffs and even if Bryzgalov stands on his head in net (hey it's the spring), you have to take the Red Wings in 6 games.

Our NHL Playoff Preview continues with picks for the Conference Semi-Finals, Conference Finals & Stanley Cup Finals... here they are:

Conference Semi Finals
EAST

PENGUINS over CAPITALS
DEVILS over SABRES

WEST

SHARKS over RED WINGS
CANUCKS over BLACKHAWKS

Conference Finals
EAST
PENGUINS over DEVILS
WEST
CANUCKS over SHARKS

PREDICTED 2009/2010 Stanley Cup Finals (14/04/2010)
PITTSBURGH PENGUINS
v
VANCOUVER CANUCKS
Stanley Cup Finals Prediction: It'll be Team Canada v Team USA once again... only this time the two Olympic heroes for Canada will be on different teams. Can Sidney Crosby take Pittsburgh to back-to-back titles ala Mario Lemieux or will Roberto Luongo prove his mettle in the toughest arena of all - the Stanely Cup Finals... Marc-Andre Fleury did it last year and he'll have a say about it once again. I'm banking on Sid the Kid to have a huge Cup Final to break Luongo's back and the hearts of Canadians who get on the Vancouver bandwagon come June.
Pittsburgh Penguins in 6 games.
Conn Smythe: Sidney Crosby.

Just in case you missed the end of last season's Stanley Cup Finals and want a low-res but reaction filled video of the final seconds of last year's Game 7... here is how it went down.

No comments: