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Thursday, 28 June 2012

NRL 2012: Round 17 NRL Preview Tips Teams Predictions Late Mail Podcast Odds

NRL ROUND 17 TIPPING PREVIEW
By W D Nicolson 

Okay we're back!

The full NRL Preview is back in business after two hectic weeks and NOT The Footy Show Episode 113 features a new co-host in the chair joining Maria Tsialis and Warrick Nicolson taking Origin 3 and Round 17.

So with Origin 3 just around the corner www.wdnicolson.com has your NSW and QLD Team Analysis here and we'll have our Predictions on the weekend.

As for Round 17 - the Full Preview is below with all the tips from NOT The Footy Show's crack tipping panel.

Full Round 17 Tips are Sharks by 6, Knights by 4, Warriors by 10, Rabbitohs by 4 and Raiders by 2.

My 'Locks' are Cronulla and the Warriors. My 'Less than Confidents' are Knights, while my 'Don't put the house on Its' are the Rabbitohs and Raiders.

Have updated the NRL Injured List with all of this week's Late Mail as well as below.

The hot tip now is that Michael Gordon plays for Penrith on Sunday.


Round 17 Late Mail... is below. If you have any reputable mail - Let me know via @NRLTweet

For more on how we see the Weekend unfolding, check out the Podcast and Preview below.
For game-specific Late Mail every week - check back on Friday (or if there's an earlier game, earlier) for all your tipping and fantasy game needs.
NRL ROUND 17 PREVIEW - 2012
27/06 Odds are courtesy of Sportingbet Australia
For some more insight into the markets check out NOT The Footy Show's new resident tipster's site GT Tips http://www.gttips.co.uk
All Kick-Offs are LOCAL time.


FRIDAY - JUNE 29
BRONCOS $1.53 v $2.57 SHARKS 
CRO +4.5 | GAME STATS | @ Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane. 7:45pm Kick-Off.

NRL TWEET PLAYER OF THE YEAR AWARD VOTERS
Craig Buchanan and Michael McLucas. Follow #NRLTweetPOTY for every Vote in 2012.
COMING IN
Broncos are 10-5 and 3rd, Sharks are 9-5 and 4th.
HEAD TO HEAD LAST 10
Broncos 7, Sharks 3.
Brisbane have won 5 straight.
TUESDAY TEAM NEWS

BRI: J Hoffman, L Maranta, J Reed, G Beale, D Copley, C Norman, P Wallace, J McGuire, A McCullough, M Dodds, A Glenn (c), B Gibb, D Lui.
Bench: B Hunt, A Whitchurch, J Wallace, N Slyney, K Baptiste.
[Team Changes - Sam Thaiday, Justin Hodges, Corey Parker, Matt Gillett, Ben Te'o, Ben Hannant and Petero Civoniceva will likely all play Origin 3, so Alex Glenn is skipper once more. Lachlan Maranta comes onto the wing, Mitchell Dodds starts at prop, Dunamuis Lui and Brendon Gibb are in the backrow. Leaving Aaron Whitchurch, Jarrod Wallace, Nick Slyney and Kurt Baptiste as the new faces on the bench. ]

CRO: M Wright, I Gordon, B Pomeroy, C Best, N Stapleton, C Townsend, J Robson, B Gibbs, I De Gois, B Ross, J Smith (c), J Bukuya, W Graham.
Bench: A Fifita, T Frizell, J Morris, M Taufua, S Tagataese.
[Team Changes - The Sharks won't have Todd Carney and Paul Gallen but they insert Andrew Fifita, Wade Graham and Chad Townsend into their team and Tyson Frizell could once again see plenty of time from the bench. If the Sharks are fair dinkum their pack should run all over Brisbane's. ]
THURSDAY GAME PREVIEW
Listen to the Podcast for a full preview, but we like the Sharks because their pack simply cannot afford to go to Brisbane and get beat by a reserve grade unit. Too much pride at stake for the Sharks surely... if the game gets open however - then Brisbane's spine comes into the game.
TIPPING AND FANTASY LATE MAIL
SMH and Other Late Mail - The Broncos are unlikely to play two bench hookers in Ben Hunt and Kurt Baptiste so expect just Hunt to play. Otherwise the Broncos are fine. Jon Green and Sam Tagataese are the extra players in Brisbane with the Sharks but are unlikely to play.
THE NRL TWEET'S PICK
Sharks by 6.

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NOT The Footy Show TV is taking a short hiatus - we will be back towards the end of the season for the run home.
In the Podcast: 
West Coast Pirates reveal Anthony Griffin as first coach!

Get NOT The Footy Show Episode 113 hosted by Warrick Nicolson and newbie Jake Hauritz and hear all about what QLD and NSW should do with their injuries heading into the Game 3 Decider, why Ben Barba would've scared the life out of NSW, Maria Tsialis joins us to debate the value of mid-season Player Transfers and reveal the inaugural 17 players who will allegedly sign for the West Coast Pirates in 2013.

Plus a full odds preview of Round 17 with all our picks and Special Fried Rice selections.

NOT The Footy Show will be back on the weekend with more Origin 3 predictions from resident QLDer Matt Duncan in a short Podcast and the prognostications of the whole crew.
NOT The Footy Show Episode 113
Origin 3 and Round 17 NRL Preview - Released Wednesday June 27, 2012

Right Click Save Target As This Link if you don't have iTunes for the MP3 File.

Subscribe to the Podcast via this link / Download mp3 version

LIKE the show on Facebook for all the latest updates.
NOT The Footy Show will release another Podcast next Thursday night - July 5 with our Origin 3 Review Show.
1st Prize: Your name permanent markered onto our prestigious NTFS Trophy and a NTFS T-Shirt for the Top 3 finishers.
We have two comps running in Dream Team and Super Coach.
SATURDAY - JUNE 30
EELS $2.04 v $1.81 KNIGHTS 
PAR +1.5 | GAME STATS | @ Parramatta Stadium, Parramatta. 7:35pm Kick-Off.

NRL TWEET PLAYER OF THE YEAR AWARD VOTERS
Nigel Wilbow and Greg Delaney. Follow #NRLTweetPOTY for every Vote in 2012.
COMING IN
Eels are 3-11 and 16th, Knights are 5-9 and 12th.
HEAD TO HEAD LAST 10
Eels 4 Knights 6
Newcastle have won 3 straight.
TUESDAY TEAM NEWS

PAR: L Burt, R Morgan, C Blair, W Tonga, K Sio, L Kelly, C Sandow, T Mannah, M Keating, J Poore, N Hindmarsh (c), M Ryan, B Smith.
Bench: J Paulo, FF MoiMoi, M Allgood, T Lasalo, R Maitua.
[Team Changes - Hey look that's Willie Tonga! He's been named, Jarryd Hayne goes to Brisbane for Origin 3 and Reni Maitua is on an extended bench after serving another suspension. That's pretty much it from Stephen Kearney-land where change doesn't happen. ]

NEW: P Mata'utia, J McManus, D Gagai, T Tahu, A Uate, J Mullen, T Roberts, K Snowden, D Buderus (c), W Mason, C Houston, J Edwards, N Costigan.
Bench: Z Tetevano, Z Taia, A Cuthbertson, A McKinnon, K Naiqama, C Adams.
[Team Changes - Akuila Uate was dropped from Origin so he's here still but Darius Boyd is off to Brisbane after tearing the Tigers to shreds on Monday. Chris Adams could come in to give Danny Buderus a spell during the match while Peter Mata'utia is in for Boyd. Kev Naiqama is on standby for the outside backs. ]
THURSDAY GAME PREVIEW
Listen to the Podcast for a full preview, but we like the Knights because Parramatta don't have Jarryd Hayne and he's kind of a big deal to their ability to score points... I mean who's going to create for Parra - Chris Sandow? Knights to get some sort of roll going... surely.
TIPPING AND FANTASY LATE MAIL
SMH and Other Late Mail - Matt Keating has recovered from a head knock and will play, while Reni Maitua is set to replace Taniela Lasalo on the Parramatta bench. The Knights will take Chris Adams and Kevin Naiqama to Sydney and make a final decision on their 17 on gameday.
THE NRL TWEET'S PICK
Knights by 4.

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SUNDAY - JULY 1
WARRIORS $1.18 v $5.15 COWBOYS 
NQL +14.5 | GAME STATS | @ Mt Smart Stadium, Auckland. 4:00pm Kick-Off.

NRL TWEET PLAYER OF THE YEAR AWARD VOTERS
Matthew Vickers and Matthew Duncan. Follow #NRLTweetPOTY for every Vote in 2012.
COMING IN
Warriors are 6-8 and 9th, Cowboys are 9-6 and 5th.
HEAD TO HEAD LAST 10
Warriors 5 Cowboys 5.
They have split the last 6 games.
TUESDAY TEAM NEWS

WAR: K Locke, B Tupou, B Henry, K Hurrell, G Fisiiahi, J Maloney, S Johnson, R Packer, N Friend, B Matulino, L Brown, S Mannering (c), E Taylor.
Bench: J Lillyman, M Luck, Sione Lousi, F Mateo, Steve Rapira.
[Team Changes - Micheal Luck returns after a long layoff with a shoulder injury and he replaces Alehana Mara in the squad who has a broken leg. Lewis Brown starts at hooker and Manu Vatuvei has been named despite cramping in his hamstring late in the game v Penrith. ]

NQL: M Bowen, A Graham, A Winterstein, K Linnett, K Fai-Fai Loa, M Morgan, R Thompson, A Sims, A Payne (c), R Thorby, G Cooper, G Hall, D Johnson.
Bench: J Riethmuller, S Bolton, J Taumalolo, C Paterson, M Pangai.
[Team Changes - Johnathan Thurston, Matt Scott, James Tamou, Brent Tate and possibly Matt Bowen miss after being selected for Origin 3, with Michael Morgan coming in at five-eighth, Kalifa Fai-Fai Loa on the wing, and Ricky Thorby and Ashton Sims start at prop. Bowen has still been named at fullback but Mosese Pangai will come onto the wing and Ashley Graham or Fai-Fai Loa will play fullback if Bowen plays for QLD. Joel Riethmuller is the new face on the bench. ]
THURSDAY GAME PREVIEW
Listen to the Podcast for a full preview, but we like the Warriors - even though Matt Bowen will play for the Cowboys after QLD chose Greg Inglis ahead of Bowen to replace Billy Slater for Game 3.
TIPPING AND FANTASY LATE MAIL
SMH and Other Late Mail - The Warriors will leave Steve Rapira out and don't be surprised if Micheal Luck starts for Lewis Brown in the second row. Matt Bowen will play after being released by the QLD team and he bolsters the Cowboys big time. Expect Mosese Pangai to miss out on the bench with Anthony Mitchell's arrival also putting Cory Paterson under pressure to hold his spot in the 17.
THE NRL TWEET'S PICK
Warriors by 10.

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SUNDAY - JULY 1
RABBITOHS $1.28 v $3.65 PANTHERS 
PEN +10.5 | GAME STATS | @ ANZ Stadium, Homebush. 3:00pm Kick-Off.

NRL TWEET PLAYER OF THE YEAR AWARD VOTERS
Justin Davies and Ben Hoese. Follow #NRLTweetPOTY for every Vote in 2012.
COMING IN
Rabbitohs are 8-6 and 7th, Panthers are 4-11 and 15th.
HEAD TO HEAD LAST 10
Rabbitohs 5 Panthers 5.
Souths won in Round 3, but Penrith have won 3 of the last 5.
TUESDAY TEAM NEWS

SOU: N Merritt, J Hunt, S Corrigan, D Farrell, A Everingham, J Sutton, A Reynolds, S Geddes, I Luke, L Burgess, B Lowe, C McQueen, M Crocker.
Bench: J Clark, D Tyrrell, G Burgess, N Peats.
[Team Changes - Greg Inglis is playing Origin, Dave Taylor has been picked but might not. There remains a strong chance Taylor could end up playing on Sunday, so Ben Lowe's starting spot might be shortlived. No Baby John Sam Burgess yet... but yes he might play given it is a home game. Shaune Corrigan starts in the centres with Nathan Merritt going to fullback and Andrew Everingham on the flank where not passing won't matter. George Burgess is again on the bench and should make his 2nd appearance in first grade... unless his brother steals his spot. ]

PEN: L Coote, E Uaisele, B Tighe, G Daniela, D Simmons, B Austin, H Siejka, D Weston, K Kingston (c), N Plum, C Newton, C Ciraldo, R Simpkins.
Bench: M Robinson, C Armit, M Achurch, A Taumata, D Galea.
[Team Changes - Heaps of changes... key ones are Luke Walsh out (but could still play) with a shoulder injury, Blake Austin-Harry Siejka new halves, Brad Tighe in for Michael Jennings and Nigel Plum/Ryan Simpskins starting for Tim Grant/Luke Lewis. Matt Robinson, Mitch Achurch, Danny Galea and Arana Taumata are new faces on the bench. Michael Gordon (if still a Panther) will return in Round 19 after the bye. ]
THURSDAY GAME PREVIEW
Listen to the Podcast for a full preview, but we like the Rabbitohs - especially if Dave Taylor is released from the QLD Origin team. Luke Walsh plays and the Panthers are real show, but South Sydney's defence should be too good here.
TIPPING AND FANTASY LATE MAIL
SMH and Other Late Mail - Dave Taylor is now playing after being dropped by QLD in favour of - this is hilarious - Ben Te'o! Great news for the Bunnies and George Burgess is set to miss out. Sam Burgess probably won't be risked yet, but expect him back in a fortnight. The Panthers might have Luke Walsh and possibly Travis Burns for this weekend, meaning either/both Blake Austin or Harry Siejka would go to the bench if he does. Danny Galea and Mitch Achurch should beat Arana Taumata for the final two bench spots. Michael Gordon and Josh Mansour are close to returns but may be held back til after the bye next weekend... hold that thought - Gordon might be playing, in fact he's either playing or off to Cronulla effective immediately if the information I have is correct.
THE NRL TWEET'S PICK
Rabbitohs by 4.

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MONDAY - JULY 2
RAIDERS $2.40 v $1.60 DRAGONS 
CAN +4.0 | GAME STATS | @ Canberra Stadium, Canberra. 7:00pm Kick-Off.

NRL TWEET PLAYER OF THE YEAR AWARD VOTERS
Warrick Nicolson and Matt Spillane. Follow #NRLTweetPOTY for every Vote in 2012.
COMING IN
Raiders are 5-9 and 13th, Dragons are 7-8 and 10th.
HEAD TO HEAD LAST 10
Raiders 9 Dragons 1.
Canberra have won 9 of the last 10.
TUESDAY TEAM NEWS

CAN: R Robinson, D Pelo, J Croker, B Ferguson, E Lee, J McCrone, S Williams, D Tilse, T Waddell, T Learoyd-Lahrs, J Papalii, J Thompson, S Fensom.
Bench: M McIlwrick, B Harrison, S Mataora, J Picker, M Nicholls.
[Team Changes - Canberra lose David Shillignton to Origin 3 and Josh Dugan to an ankle injury. The good news is Joel Thompson's hand is not broken and he might play, and Bronson Harrison and Joe Picker have been named. Shaun Berrigan might also make a quick return from a bicep injury. Sam Williams is recalled to start at halfback with Dugan hurt. The club signed Sandor Earl for the remainder of 2012 midweek and he could play on Monday. ]

STI: J Nightingale, D Vidot, C Stanley, M Cooper, B Goodwin, J Soward, B Hornby (c), D Hunt, M Rein, J de Belin, J Marketo, L Ah Mau, D Young.
Bench: N Fien, J Latimore, M Prior, J Miller, T Merrin.
[Team Changes - With Beau Scott, Ben Creagh, Trent Merrin and now Brett Morris on Origin 3 duty, the team looks thin up front. Mind you Scott, Creagh or Merrin could end up playing Monday, so don't be certain that is how the pack lines up. Matt Prior still on the bench is a surprise, while Jeremy Latimore and Josh Miller join Leeson Ah Mau as the new additions. Jason Nightingale is now at fullback with Bronx Goodwin on the left wing, with Matt Cooper's return. ]
THURSDAY GAME PREVIEW
Listen to the Podcast for a full preview, but we like the Raiders... why? Have you looked at the stats? Canberra have won 12 of the last 13 and haven't lost in Canberra against the Dragons since 2000... they call it a curse for a reason. Oh and the Dragons are very average, and Canberra aren't that much worse.
TIPPING AND FANTASY LATE MAIL
SMH and Other Late Mail - Trent Merrin will join the Dragons for MNF after being punted by NSW and Beau Scott or Ben Creagh could join him - if two of the three play then curse or no curse, the Dragons will firm considerably. Matt Cooper should also return for the Dragons. Canberra will likely leave Sandor Earl out for at least another week but Shaun Berrigan could come back for Matt McIlwrick and Mark Nicholls is on standby for Joe Picker and Bronson Harrison. That is if Joel Thompson's hand is ok to play - and he wants to play regardless of how sore it is.
THE NRL TWEET'S PICK
Raiders by 2.

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BYES - Storm, Sea Eagles, Titans, Tigers, Roosters, Bulldogs.
This year not only do you get The NRL Tweet's Tips each week but the whole NOT The Footy Show team will have their picks listed by Thursday so you can back a smoky or a favourite by seeing who we all picked (or didn't pick). 
@NRLTWEET's 2012 TIPPING RECORD 
TOTAL AFTER 16 ROUNDS - 70/117 @ 59.8%
SPECIAL FRIED RICE involves each tipster taking a 'certainty' in a set order, with the tipster with the highest score at the end of the year literally winning a mountain of Special Fried Rice.
Origin does not count in the panel tips, but DOES for NRL.com competition
ROUND 17 SELECTIONS
Sharks
Knights
Warriors
Rabbitohs
Raiders
LW: 4/7 | SEASON 70/117
Special Fried Rice: WARRIORS
Season SFR: 10/16
Not on Twitter
Nic McInerney, NTFS Co-Host
Broncos
Knights
Warriors
Rabbitohs
Dragons
LW: 4/7 | SEASON 70/117
Special Fried Rice: KNIGHTS
Season SFR: 11/16
@mrpeninsula
Matt Duncan, 101.5 FM's SportsFever
Broncos
Eels
Warriors
Panthers
Raiders
LW: 5/7 | SEASON: 66/117
Special Fried Rice: BRONCOS
Season SFR: 9/16

Not on Twitter
DC Chapman, NTFS Co-Host
Broncos
Eels
Warriors
Rabbitohs
Dragons
LW: 4/7 | SEASON 71/117
Special Fried Rice: RABBITOHS
Season SFR: 7/16

@mtsialis
Maria Tsialis, Big League Magazine
Sharks
Eels
Warriors
Rabbitohs
Dragons
LW: 3/7 | SEASON 64/117
Special Fried Rice: SHARKS
Season SFR: 12/16

@GT_Tips
George 'GT' Taylor, GT's Tips Expert
Sharks
Eels
Warriors
Rabbitohs
Raiders
LW: 0/7 | SEASON 61/117
Special Fried Rice: RAIDERS
Season SFR: 8/16
Not on Twitter
Eyes, The Kid Who Sees All
Sharks
Knights
Warriors
Rabbitohs
Raiders
LW: 2/7 | SEASON 55/117
Eyes does not eat Special Fried Rice... yet.
Make sure you enter NOT The Footy Show's Tipping Competition, the outright winner walks away with an Official Steeden Match ball!
TIPS DONE, GO OUT AND ENJOY THE FOOTY!
1st Prize: NRL Match Steeden Ball. 2nd to 5th: NTFS Club Mascot T-Shirts.
CLICK FOR MOST RECENT UPDATE
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If you want a full 2012 NRL Season Preview you'll need to pick yourself up a copy of the 2012 Rugby League Almanac for just $10.00 - where every team is analysed in depth and our Predicted Ladder and Premiership pick is published.


So while you go grab a copy, here is the short sharp and boldly premature 2012 Prediction for each NRL Club. If you want our Final Ladder - see the Almanac.

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