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Thursday, 7 June 2012

NRL 2012: Round 14 NRL Preview Tips Teams Predictions Late Mail Podcast Odds

NRL ROUND 14 TIPPING PREVIEW
By W D Nicolson 

With State of Origin Game 2 on our doorstep - and half the NRL season done and dusted - it's probably worth recapping how successful www.wdnicolson.com has been with our NRL preview so far in 2012.

Honestly, we've tipped better - namely in 2010 when we took out a couple of online comps and a Weber BBQ!

But the numbers aren't terrible - TOTAL TIPS AFTER 13 ROUNDS - 60/98 @ 61.2%

We don't include Origin games and don't award bonus points for perfect rounds but sadly the latter hasn't applied in 2012.

That being said - this preview is all about giving you all the information relevant to YOU picking a winner, we just try and give you some guidance and if we make sense most of the time - stick with us.

Just 5 games on the schedule this week with Origin 2 next Wednesday. And why the heck isn't there a dedicated Queen's Birthday Long Weekend Monday DAY game? NRL you've missed a trick in a major way by not scheduling a 2pm kick-off and the clubs have swung and missed by not lining up to play a game every year against the same opponent.

For more on how we see the Weekend unfolding, check out the Podcast and Preview below.

For game-specific Late Mail every week - check back on Friday (or if there's an earlier game, earlier) for all your tipping and fantasy game needs.

NOT The Footy Show Episode 110
Origin 2 and Round 14 NRL Preview - Released Wednesday June 6, 2012 
Right Click Save Target As This Link if you don't have iTunes for the MP3 File.

NOT The Footy Show will release another Podcast next Thursday night - June 14 with our State of Origin Game 2 Recap and Round 15 Preview Show.


LIKE the show on Facebook for all the latest updates.
1st Prize: NRL Match Steeden Ball. 2nd to 5th: NTFS Club Mascot T-Shirts.
NRL ROUND 14 PREVIEW - 2012
07/06 Odds are courtesy of Sportingbet Australia
For some more insight into the markets check out NOT The Footy Show's new resident tipster's site GT Tips http://www.gttips.co.uk
All Kick-Offs are LOCAL time.


FRIDAY - JUNE 8
STORM $2.75 v $1.47 TIGERS 
MEL +6.0 | GAME STATS | @ AAMI Park, Melbourne. 7:35pm Kick-Off.

NRL TWEET PLAYER OF THE YEAR AWARD VOTERS
W Nicolson and C Buchanan. Follow #NRLTweetPOTY for every Vote in 2012.
COMING IN
Storm are 11-1 and 1st, Tigers are 7-5 and 4th.
HEAD TO HEAD LAST 10
Storm 6 Tigers 4
Neither club has won two in a row since 2006-2007.
TUESDAY TEAM NEWS

MEL: G Widdop, M Duffie, D Nielsen, W Chambers, J O’Neill, M Blair, R Kostjasyn, J Bromwich, R Hinchcliffe, J Ryles, A Quinn, R Hoffman, T Lowrie.
Bench: L Kelly, M Greenfield, S Vave, J Lowe, S Waqa, K Bromwich, M Garbutt.
[Team Changes - With Billy Slater, Cameron Smith and Cooper Cronk on Origin duty, Gareth Widdop goes to fullback, Maurice Blair to five-eighth, Rory Kostjasyn to halfback and Ryan Hinchcliffe will start at hooker. Anthony Quinn is in the second row and the bench now features new faces in Luke Kelly, Michael Greenfield, Sisa Waqa, Kenneath Bromwich and Mitchell Garbutt. There's also room for Sika Manu and Kevin Proctor to make a comeback if fit. ]

WTG: T Moltzen, M Utai, B Ryan, C Lawrence, L Tuqiri, C Sironen, B Marshall (c), A Woods, T Humble, K Galloway, A Blair, L Fulton, C Heighington.
Bench: M Iosefa, B Ayshford, M Bell, B Murdoch-Masila, J Reddy.
[Team Changes - The Tigers take so long to name pretty much the same lineup as last week, there's no point going through what changes did happen - bar Farah to Origin. ]
THURSDAY GAME PREVIEW
Listen to the Podcast for a full preview, but we like the Tigers because they've got Marshall and the Storm don't have Cronk, Slater or Smith. And the Tigers are only missing Farah from the team that has won half a dozen in a row. Storm will fight but the Tigers should win.
TIPPING AND FANTASY LATE MAIL
SMH and Other Late Mail - The Storm lost Will Chambers indefinitely with a health condition, so Sisa Waqa or Anthony Quinn will start on the wing and Justin O'Neill goes to the centres. Michael Greenfield could miss to allow either Mitch Garbutt or Kenny Bromwich to debut or make room for an experienced forward to return from injury. The Tigers will leave Joel Reddy out if Blake Ayshford is over a wrist injury.
THE NRL TWEET'S PICK
Tigers by 10.

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NOT The Footy Show Video is taking a short hiatus - we will be back just not every week.
In the Podcast: 

The Gallop wants a job? NOT The Footy Show asks the question: What could David Gallop do next?

Get NOT The Footy Show Episode 110 and 'enjoy' Warrick Nicolson, Matthew Duncan, DC Chapman and YES Nic McInerney (we found him!) talking Gallop's legacy and future, Preview Origin 2 and tip Round 14 of the NRL.

Also in Episode 110 we hear an exclusive, breaking, developing, we're hearing, official announcement over the future of an NRL coach... Eyes has the mail you don't want to miss.

We also ask why doesn't the NRL play a regular fixture during the day on the Queen's Birthday Long Weekend Monday and why aren't clubs lining up to play on the day?

NOT The Footy Show is getting so popular we hear the Queen wants us at her next diamond jubilee celebrations.
1st Prize: Your name permanent markered onto our prestigious NTFS Trophy and a NTFS T-Shirt for the Top 3 finishers.
We have two comps running in Dream Team and Super Coach.
SATURDAY - JUNE 9
KNIGHTS $1.50 v $2.67 RAIDERS 
CAN +6.0 | GAME STATS | @ Hunter Stadium, Newcastle. 7:35pm Kick-Off.

NRL TWEET PLAYER OF THE YEAR AWARD VOTERS
W Nicolson and G Delaney. Follow #NRLTweetPOTY for every Vote in 2012.
COMING IN
Knights are 4-8 and 13th, Raiders are 4-8 and 15th.
HEAD TO HEAD LAST 10
Knights 6 Raiders 4
Newcastle won both games last year but the teams have split the past 6 games.
TUESDAY TEAM NEWS

NEW: P Mata’utia, J McManus, D Gagai, T Tahu, K Naiqama, J Mullen, T Roberts, K Snowden, D Buderus (c), W Mason, C Houston, J Edwards, N Costigan.
Bench: C Adams, Z Taia, A Cuthbertson, A McKinnon, J Sa’u.
[Team Changes - Peter Mata'utia replaces Darius Boyd at fullback and Kevin Naiqama fills in for Akuila Uate with the two rep stars playing Origin 2. Timana Tahu comes back in after missing last week and he is joined by new buy Dane Gagai in the centres with Wes Naiqama punted and Junior Sa'u is shifted to the bench. Zeb Taia is reinstated to the bench after a week in NSW Cup for Richie Fa'aoso. ]

CAN: R Robinson, D Pelo, J Croker, B Ferguson, E Lee, J Dugan, J McCrone, D Tilse, T Waddell, T Learoyd-Lahrs, J Papalii, J Thompson, S Fensom.
Bench: M McIlwrick, B Harrison, S Mataora, J Picker, T Thurling, M Nicholls, S Williams.
[Team Changes - David Shillington is playing Origin (lucky guy) and Dane Tilse replaces him as the starting prop in the only change to the starting 13 for the Raiders. Bronson Harrison and Matthew McIlwrick are added to the bench, while Trevor Thurling, Mark Nicholls and Sam Williams will travel with the team as extra men on the bench. As of yet, there are no changes to the coaching staff. ]
THURSDAY GAME PREVIEW
Listen to the Podcast for a full preview, but we like the Knights in the battle of the busted teams. While the Knights will improve under Wayne Bennett (eventually), the Raiders have rotted under the direction of David Furner and he won't be there much longer... win or lose.
TIPPING AND FANTASY LATE MAIL
SMH and Other Late Mail - Junior Sa'u likely misses out but Matt Hilder could be a late inclusion for Chris Adams on the bench. Sam Williams could play if Furner decides to play Josh McCrone at hooker and leave Matt McIlwrick out of the team. Trevor Thurling is the man most likely to force his way onto the bench from the extended group if Shaun Fensom's head or knee keep him out of the contest.
THE NRL TWEET'S PICK
Knights by 6.

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SUNDAY - JUNE 10
SHARKS $1.70 v $2.15 TITANS 
GLD +2.5 | GAME STATS | @ Toyota Stadium, Cronulla. 2:00pm Kick-Off.

NRL TWEET PLAYER OF THE YEAR AWARD VOTERS
M Vickers and M Tsialis. Follow #NRLTweetPOTY for every Vote in 2012.
COMING IN
Sharks are 7-5 and 6th, Titans are 5-7 and 10th.
HEAD TO HEAD LAST 10
Sharks 4 Titans 4
Cronulla have won 2 of the last 3 - but the Titans won their last meeting in Round 22, 2012.
TUESDAY TEAM NEWS

CRO: M Wright, I Gordon, B Pomeroy, C Best, N Stapleton, C Townsend, J Robson, B Gibbs, I De Gois, B Ross, J Smith, J Bukuya, W Graham.
Bench: A Fifita, J Green, J Morris, M Taufua, S Tagataese.
[Team Changes - Chad Townsend is the new face in the team at five-eighth, with Wade Graham picked at lock this week with Paul Gallen and Todd Carney on Origin duty. Jon Green comes onto the bench from NSW Cup. ]

GLD: W Zillman, K Gordon, J Idris, B Champion, D Mead, A Sezer, S Prince (c), B Lawrence, M Srama, M White, L Douglas, M Minichiello, L O’Dwyer.
Bench: R James, M Henderson, B Ridge, S Michaels.
[Team Changes - Greg Bird, Nate Myles and Ashley Harrison are on Origin duty and Luke Bailey has busted ribs so they are all out. Brenton Lawrence and Matt White start at prop, Luke Douglas is picked in the second row and Luke O'Dwyer is the new lock forward. Ryan James makes his return from a long term knee injury on the bench alongside Michael Henderson and Steve Michaels. ]
THURSDAY GAME PREVIEW
Listen to the Podcast for a full preview, but we like the Sharks. Yes Cronulla have the wobbles but don't get carried away with the Titans - they won't have Bird, Bailey, Myles or Harrison - while Cronulla still have a good team and are at home.
TIPPING AND FANTASY LATE MAIL
SMH and Other Late Mail - Jon Green will beat out Sam Tagataese for a bench spot for Cronulla and Ben Pomeroy should play despite a slight groin strain, while the Titans will take an 18th man but won't confirm their team til Sunday.
THE NRL TWEET'S PICK
Sharks by 7.

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SUNDAY - JUNE 10
ROOSTERS $1.70 v $2.15 BRONCOS 
BRI +2.5 | GAME STATS | @ Allianz Stadium, Sydney. 3:00pm Kick-Off.

NRL TWEET PLAYER OF THE YEAR AWARD VOTERS
J Davies and M Spillane. Follow #NRLTweetPOTY for every Vote in 2012.
COMING IN
Roosters are 5-7 and 12th, Broncos are 8-4 and 2nd.
HEAD TO HEAD LAST 10
Roosters 3 Broncos 7
These two teams haven't played in over a year (Round 6, 2011) but the Roosters have won 2 of the last 3.
TUESDAY TEAM NEWS

SYD: A Minichiello, A Henry, J Leilua, T Moga, S Perrett, B Anasta, D Mortimer, J Waerea-Hargreaves, J Friend, M Kennedy, A Guerra, M Aubusson, B Cordner.
Bench: F-P Nuuausala, L Tasi, T Arona, M Masoe, J Carney, B Takairangi.
[Team Changes - Adam Henry will debut for the club after joining from the Warriors at the end of last year, while Joseph Leilua is recalled after only one week in the NSW Cup. Daniel Mortimer deputises for Mitchell Pearce who is on Origin duty, while Justin Carney is the only addition to a six man bench. ]

BRI: J Hoffman, L Maranta, J Reed, G Beale, D Copley, C Norman, P Wallace, J McGuire, A McCullough, S Anderson, A Glenn, B Te’o, C Parker (c).
Bench: B Hunt, M Dodds, N Slyney, D Lui.
[Team Changes - The Origin group will miss (Hannant, Gillett, Civoniceva, Thaiday and Hodges) this game so Lachlan Maranta, Scott Anderson and Ben Te'o start, and Nick Slyney and Dunamis Lui join the bench. Corey Parker is 18th man for Origin 2 but he will play in this game. ]
THURSDAY GAME PREVIEW
Listen to the Podcast for a full preview, but we like the Broncos who despite the 'Baby Broncos' tag, still have 6 internationals. The Roosters need to start well or the Broncos will grind them out of it.
TIPPING AND FANTASY LATE MAIL
SMH and Other Late Mail - Corey Parker will miss this game after replacing team-mate Sam Thaiday in the Queensland, while the Broncos will announce their replacement closer to Sunday. The Roosters will whittle their bench to 17 by Sunday - expect Justin Carney and either Mose Masoe or Brad Takairangi to miss out.
THE NRL TWEET'S PICK
Broncos by 4.

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MONDAY - JUNE 11
PANTHERS $2.80 v $1.46 WARRIORS 
PEN +6.5 | GAME STATS | @ Centrebet Stadium, Penrith. 5:30pm Kick-Off.

NRL TWEET PLAYER OF THE YEAR AWARD VOTERS
M McLucas and M Duncan. Follow #NRLTweetPOTY for every Vote in 2012.
COMING IN
Panthers are 4-8 and 14th, Warriors are 5-7 and 9th.
HEAD TO HEAD LAST 10
Panthers 3 Warriors 6 Draw 1
The Warriors have won 3 straight.
TUESDAY TEAM NEWS

PEN: L Coote, E Uaisele, G Daniela, B Tighe, J Mansour, T Burns, L Walsh, S McKendry, K Kingston (c), D Weston, C Newton, C Ciraldo, R Simpkins.
Bench: M Robinson, C Armit, D Galea, N Plum.
[Team Changes - Luke Lewis, Michael Jennings and Tim Grant will play for NSW, so Chris Armit and Matt Robinson join the squad. Ryan Simpkins starts at lock and Dayne Weston in the front row. ]

WAR: K Locke, B Tupou, B Henry, K Hurrell, M Vatuvei, J Maloney, S Johnson, R Packer, A Mara, B Matulino, E Taylor, S Mannering (c), F Mateo.
Bench: L Brown, Steve Rapira, Sione Lousi, J Lillyman, G Fisiiahi.
[Team Changes - Kevin Locke is back quickly after just one game in the NSW Cup, and Glen Fisiiahi makes way. Sam Rapira badly damaged his triceps and is out for months, so brother Steve joins the bench. There are no other changes to report. ]
THURSDAY GAME PREVIEW
Listen to the Podcast for a full preview, but we like the Warriors to right the ship and beat a Penrith team minus Jennings, Lewis and Grant.
TIPPING AND FANTASY LATE MAIL
SMH and Other Late Mail - Locke should play, while Fisiiahi would miss out. Ukuma Ta'ai might also be a late inclusion for the Warriors. The Panthers should be 1-17, with Michael Gordon still a few weeks away and Blake Austin languishing in NSW Cup with half the starting team from the early rounds.
THE NRL TWEET'S PICK
Warriors by 16.

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BYES - Eels, Rabbitohs, Bulldogs, Dragons, Cowboys, Sea Eagles.
CLICK FOR MOST RECENT UPDATE
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This year not only do you get The NRL Tweet's Tips each week but the whole NOT The Footy Show team will have their picks listed by Thursday so you can back a smoky or a favourite by seeing who we all picked (or didn't pick). 
@NRLTWEET's 2012 TIPPING RECORD 
TOTAL AFTER 13 ROUNDS - 60/98 @ 61.2%
SPECIAL FRIED RICE involves each tipster taking a 'certainty' in a set order, with the tipster with the highest score at the end of the year literally winning a mountain of Special Fried Rice.
Origin does not count in the panel tips, but DOES for NRL.com competition
ROUND 14 SELECTIONS
Tigers
Knights
Sharks
Broncos
Panthers
NSW
LW: 4/7 | SEASON 60/98
Special Fried Rice: SHARKS
Season SFR: 8/13
Not on Twitter
Nic McInerney, NTFS Co-Host
Tigers
Knights
Titans
Broncos
Warriors
NSW
LW: 4/7 | SEASON 60/98
Special Fried Rice: WARRIORS
Season SFR: 9/13
@mrpeninsula
Matt Duncan, 101.5 FM's SportsFever
Storm
Knights
Titans
Broncos
Warriors
QLD
LW: 2/7 | SEASON: 56/98
Special Fried Rice: BRONCOS
Season SFR: 7/13

Not on Twitter
DC Chapman, NTFS Co-Host
Tigers
Knights
Titans
Broncos
Warriors
NSW
LW: 4/7 | SEASON 58/98
Special Fried Rice: KNIGHTS
Season SFR: 7/13

@mtsialis
Maria Tsialis, Big League Magazine
Tigers
Knights
Titans
Roosters
Warriors
TBA
LW: 5/7 | SEASON 55/98
Special Fried Rice: TIGERS
Season SFR: 9/13

@GT_Tips
George 'GT' Taylor, GT's Tips Expert
Storm
Knights
Sharks
Broncos
Warriors
TBA
LW: 4/7 | SEASON 55/98
Special Fried Rice: STORM
Season SFR: 7/13
Not on Twitter
Eyes, The Kid Who Sees All
Tigers
Raiders
Titans
Roosters
Panthers
NSW
LW: 0/7 | SEASON 47/98
Eyes does not eat Special Fried Rice... yet.
Make sure you enter NOT The Footy Show's Tipping Competition, the outright winner walks away with an Official Steeden Match ball!
TIPS DONE, GO OUT AND ENJOY THE FOOTY!
If you want a full 2012 NRL Season Preview you'll need to pick yourself up a copy of the 2012 Rugby League Almanac for just $10.00 - where every team is analysed in depth and our Predicted Ladder and Premiership pick is published.


So while you go grab a copy, here is the short sharp and boldly premature 2012 Prediction for each NRL Club. If you want our Final Ladder - see the Almanac.

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