Wednesday, 13 May 2009
NRL Tips Round 10 2009 - AFL Tips Round 08 - Super 14 Tips Week 14
There has been a lot of google searches for Round 10 Tipping in AFL this week May 25-29 and if you find yourself on this page - the current article you are searching for is located here - http://wdnicolson.blogspot.com/2009/05/nrl-tips-round-12-2009-afl-tips-round.html the AFL tips for Round 10 are located mid page. This is an archived story - so check the main page - www.wdnicolson.blogspot.com for the current round of tipping for NRL, AFL and Super 14. The site is also updated with opinion, news and features regularly. The tipping remains mediocre... but tips you still shall get. Match Previews up. NRL ROUND 10 - 2009 At this stage of the week I'm leaning towards a clean sweep for Home Teams. But am swayable on both Friday Night games and the Roosters v Knights on Saturday. Warriors are my best bet of the weekend as I just can't see the Cowboys defence holding the Warriors go-forward at bay for long. Dragons over Bulldogs > At Kogarah (where it had to stay) this game has become a sell-out and the Dragons with a number of key players back from injuries that forced them out of the Cowboys game - should win this clash. I've failed to tip the Dogs in ANY game this year and the egg is firmly attached to my face (they are 7-1) but without Josh Morris they aren't at full strength and I think that is what they need to be to take the 2 points from Kogarah. Jamie Soward will be a major factor in this game as he looks to make a statement to Country Coach Laurie Daley who left him on the bench for all but 10 mins in the rep fixture and with his main troops available this week - he will decide the match with his kicking game. Last 5 Head to Head: STI by 30, BUL by 12, BUL by 4, BUL by 16, BUL by 6. Broncos over Titans > If Scott Prince joins Luke Bailey (injured) and Anthony Laffranchi (suspended) on the sidelines for this one, the Titans are almost unbackable - despite an impressive win undermanned against the Storm earlier this year. While the Broncos may not have Karmichael Hunt or Justin Hodges they will still have one Darren Lockyer and their entire pack healthy - two huge factors in favour of the home side Broncos. If the every key Titan was playing - I'd be tempted by the Gold Coast but if one of Hunt or Hodges play then the Broncos will win this one. Last 5 Head to Head: BRI by 4, GLD by 2, BRI by 1, GLD by 12. Roosters over Knights > The Roosters showed some signs they were getting their act together on Monday Night against the Storm - but a lack of class saw them fall short when the game was there to be dominated on the scoreboard early. But this is no gimme for the Knights - who just keep winning - and it is away which is a factor to really consider. Braith Anasta has been trying hard all season for the Roosters but his halves partner Mitchell Pearce needs to ditch the robot like way he runs a game and play what is in front of him. If I see him turn an inside ball to a runner one more time when the ball clearly needs to go wide (Pearce's computer programming says by turning it inside the outside defence is more vulnerable the next play - memo to Pearce - it isn't!!!! and hasn't been all year!) - I'll give up on him ever being a star halfback in the game. The Roosters don't have the most fashionable outside backs but they can finish of a play... but they need the ball Mitchell. Knights deserve favouritism but I've got a hunch the Roosters play above their recent form and Willie Mason (who was showing signs he is running freely again last Monday) and Nate Myles will be a huge factor up the middle. Last 5 Head to Head: SYD by 2, NEW by 14, SYD by 3, NEW by 4, NEW by 14. Panthers over Sharks > The Sharks have another decent looking side on paper but they have yet to display the application to defence that was their forte in 2008 and until they do I won't be picking them again. Thus take the Panthers in this game at CUA - as Penrith have hit a purple patch of late with Matt Elliott's forward dominated game starting to look the goods. However I'm not convinced his game plan works well against teams with a swarming defence - so this matchup isn't ideal as the Sharks CAN defend if they are on their game. But thow Michael Jennings and Frank Pritchard down the left enough times and they'll worry anyone... it'll be a quesiton of whether Penrith control possession enough and get good field position for those two strikeweapons to become a factor in the game. Last 5 Head to Head: CRO by 8, CRO by 2, PEN by 1, CRO by 18, PEN by 4. Warriors over Cowboys > The apparent rivalry in this game is the fact both sides entered the competition together in 1995... both have also made just one Grand Final appearance since that time - the Warriors in a loss to the Roosters in 2002 and the Cowboys in a loss to the Tigers in 2005. They also had a dust up in a game a few years back that involved cheerleaders so there's another reason why the NRL figured this was a great matchup... On the field the Cowboys rode Johnathan Thurston to a win over the depleted Dragons but the Warriors are as close to full strength as they can get (minus Brent Tate) and I fully expect them to give the Cowboys a footballing lesson at Mt Smart this Sunday. Wouldn't touch the Cowboys with a ten foot pole on recent form despite the win over the Dragons. Last 5 Head to Head: WAR by 10, NQL by 28, NQL by 37, NQL by 6, WAR by 20. Sea Eagles over Eels > The Sea Eagles may have breathed some life into their 2009 premiership campaign by upsetting the Broncos on Sunday but the wins must continue this week against the Eels. Parramatta took advantage of a woeful Cowboys outfit two Fridays ago to get a morale boosting win but they were far from impressive. The Sea Eagles have the recent wood over the Eels and only another amazing individual display by Jarryd Hayne can give the Eels a chance here - and Manly aren't exactly going well either - but they have a better side (even without Brett Stewart) and are at home against the Eels - plus this is a game they HAVE to win to be serious about the Finals. Last 5 Head to Head: MAN by 18, MAN by 4, MAN by 8, MAN by 10, PAR by 13. Tigers over Rabbitohs > For a rivalry clash this match hasn't produced a close game since 2004 when only a single point decided the match in Round 2 at the SFS (Souths won 17-16) and in the seven matches since the average winning margin has been 31 points - and the Tigers have won six of those games. But injuries to both sides key attacking players might see this game be close for a change. No John Sutton for the Rabbitohs is a huge loss and no Chris Lawrence or Dean Collis leaves the Tigers without their two starting centres. This game is being played at the SCG so there will be no home ground advantage but the Benji Marshall-Robbie Farah factor plays the strongest hand here especially as Souths have no Sutton to counter their brilliance. Michael Crocker debuts for the Bunnies at lock. Last 5 Head to Head: WTG by 24, WTG by 20, SOU by 25, WTG by 34, WTG by 40. Storm over Raiders > If the Raiders actually win this they will be putting an end to a shocking losing streak at the hands of Melbourne. Canberra has won just 5 of the 23 matches the teams have contested and have been conquered in every game since the final Round of 2002... hardly an endorsement for the Raiders chances in this game. But you never know... Melbourne's rep stars got an extra day or two rest after the Test and now get a full week to recover for this game which is at Olympic Park... ok with those factors part of the equation we know Canberra can't win. Storm to win but a blowout... maybe not. Last 5 Head to Head: MEL by 16, MEL by 7, MEL by 28, MEL by 16, MEL by 4. AFL ROUND 08 - 2009 Only tipped 4/8 in Round 7 as I went with too many upsets... have I learnt my lesson for Round 8? Hawks over Dockers - the amazing revival of Freo ends this week as the Hawks wake up from their slumber and win by plenty. Bulldogs over Demons - Watching the second quarter of the Crows-Bulldogs was thoroughly entertaining and that's because the Dogs play such a fast paced game, the Demons are limited and lack quality to win the close games - so Dogs here. Cats over Kangaroos - don't discount the Roos entirely as the Cats still won't have Gary Ablett but you'd be a brave and rather stupid man to tip against the Cats at the Cattery. Lions over Crows - The Lions got that vital away win last week over the Tigers and will carry that momentum back home and beat a Crows team that showed some good signs (esp young Walker at full forward) but aren't a strong side in 2009... well not strong enough to take the points at the Gabba. Swans over Eagles - no Daniel Kerr is the big omission and that gives the Swans a clear advantage coupled with the home ground factor. Swans couldn't finish in the first quarter at Geelong and that cost them massively - I can't see West Coast being able to punish them like Geelong did. Power v Tigers - too close to call. Yes Port are at home but the Tigers for mine are not a 1-6 team and will claim a big scalp sooner rather than later. So its draw time at AAMI... Blues over Magpies - got sucked in by the Pies last week and foolishly picked them to beat St.Kilda who are looking very very good so far in 2009. The Blues dropped their game with Freo which won't be sitting well with the playing group and they'll rebound with a win here. Saints over Bombers - can't discount Essendon who beat the Hawks in a stirring game on Friday Night but the Saints are 7-0 and playing fantastic football - Saints for mine. SUPER 14 Week 14 - 2009 The Final Four will be decided on the last weekend of the Regular Season - for a full rundown on how each match this weekend impacts the makeup of the Finals - check out http://wdnicolson.blogspot.com/2009/05/super-14-finals-equation.html. As for the tips - check out the article for the reasons why and how that impacts the final ladder: Chiefs over Brumbies Waratahs over Lions Crusaders over Blues Hurricanes over Reds Force over Highlanders Cheetahs over Stormers Sharks over Bulls Good luck with your tips this weekend!