Tuesday 30 May 2017

The Postman's 2017 State of Origin Game 1 Predictions

The Postman's Game 1 Tips
2017 State of Origin Series
By W D Nicolson - May 30, 2017

Well NSW... there's never been a better time.

No JT, no GI, no Matt Scott, and thanks to Kevin Walters - NO BILLY SLATER!

Sure NSW left out Matt Moylan and Robbie Farah from what would have been their most potent attacking team (oh and Tom Trbojevic who would've got the wing spot Brett Morris occupies) but this is a NSW team with enough firepower to match what Darius Boyd, Anthony Milford, Cooper Cronk and Cameron Smith can throw at them...

Actually when you write down that QLD spine on paper - it's actually much better than James Tedesco, James Maloney, Mitchell Pearce and Nathan Peats. 

But NSW have an ace in the backline - no, it's not Josh 'Glass Jaw' Dugan - his name is Jarryd Hayne.
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Going back to that 2014 drought-breaking series win by NSW - Hayne had the biggest bearing on the series outcome (closely followed by Farah but he's not coming back this time around) - and Hayne will lineup in the centres for the Blues on Wednesday.

Now this is the area that NSW have to target time and time again on Wednesday - QLD's outside men. Sure they need to win the battle up front - and with a bench rotation featuring Klemmer, Trbojevic and Graham this is something NSW might actually be able to maintain if the starters do the job early - but if NSW don't chance their arm and attack QLD's outside backs - they simply won't win.

NSW's biggest problem for most of this era of QLD dominance (beyond QLD's array of champions) was the lack of attacking class in their own lineup... now that doesn't mean they've had the troops to match QLD but they haven't always picked their most classy players over the years and its cost them big time when chances to win games presented themselves.

At the end of the day you only need to be better than your opposition in 2 of 3 games... we're not talking about a full season then semi finals and then a Grand Final here - we're talking about winning two games.

Therefore - I believe NSW need at least 16 points to win Game 1 for mine... and although I love James Maloney's goalkicking - that still means I want 3 tries from the Blues.

QLD will score at least 2 tries - no matter how good NSW think they are defensively - you aren't keeping QLD to under 4 tries in two games within an Origin Series again... (2014 was seriously freakish in Game 1 and 2 when you reflect on it... QLD scored just 3 tries in the 'live' games of that series and NSW scored a grand total of 3... but won both games).

So NSW need 3 tries - that means more than just pressure = points. You've gotta beat QLD - otherwise they'll do that to you. So get the ball wide whenever you can NSW and give your backs a chance to do what they are paid to do. I'm all for beating QLD through the middle like Peter Sterling has been repeating for the last 6 months but you've still gotta risk it to get the biscuit... or something.

In the end - NSW aren't a better team on paper even with QLD missing so many guns (highlighting just how overmatched NSW have been for the years while all of QLD's champions hit and played through their prime) - but they can win this game... so they get my tip for Game 1.

To sum up - NSW win the middle and pass the ball to Jarryd Hayne more than 3 times and they win.

If only it was that simple... to the predictions!

Tips for Origin 1

Each year - The Postman and his mates fill out a State of Origin Predictions 'card' and here's your chance to take a stab or play amongst your mates:

NSW 16
QLD 12

Brett Morris, NSW

Mitchell Pearce, NSW (but Klemmer to be HUGE)

7 (QLD 3 NSW 4)

Scoring if you want to play at home...

There's my Origin tips - got your own?
Comment below or reply on Twitter

58/92 at 63.0
Round by Round: 5/8 | 5/8 | 5/8 | 5/8 | 5/8 | 2/8 | 7/8 | 5/8 | 5/8 | 5/8 | 6/8 | 3/4

2016 Tipping: 136/192 at 70.8%
2016 Round by Round: 5/8 | 6/8 | 4/8 | 5/8 | 7/8 | 5/8 | 5/8 | 7/8 | 4/8 | 4/8 | 3/4 | 5/7 | 5/8 | 4/4 | 6/8 | 3/4 | 5/6 | 7/8 | 7/8 | 4/8 | 4/8 | 6/8 | 5/8 | 7/8
2015 Tipping: 115/192 at 59.9%
2014 Tipping: 122/192 at 63.5%
2013 Tipping: 121/192 at 63.0%
2012 Tipping: 115.5/192 at 60.2%
2011 Tipping: 115/192 at 59.9%
2010 Tipping: 125/192 at 65.1%

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