
2014 National Rugby League Premiership
By W D Nicolson - April 9, 2014
Follow @NRLTweet
Our tips stink here on www.wdnicolson.com... in fact, stink might be being too kind.
We are through 40 tips in 2014... and we haven't got to .500 yet.
YIKES!
However... are you doing much better?
Didn't think so... seriously this year has been a nightmare for tipsters.
But the good news is The Postman's Late Mail for all you Fantasy Footy freaks is back...
Remember our Game Previews are now purely the essentials in 2014 - I'll try to write very little fluff and you'll simply (entertainingly) get my read on each game and of course the Late Mail.
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Click here for the Leaders after Round 5 |
The 'Special Fried Rice' picks have returned but given it is me v me, every week - I'll just be listing my 'SFR' of the week with the FootyTab Starts as the variation aspect to keep things interesting vs just saying 'this team will win this week - guaranteed'.
HEADS UP: We will have a new episode of NOT The Footy Show - sometime in the next fortnight. So keep an eye on your iTunes Podcast folders for Episode 151 in the near future.
Round 5 Tipping was just so ordinary - 3/8 and this tipping ship is very close to capsizing... still, let's get to the Tips!
















All tips are subject to last minute changes, Game Odds/FootyTab are from Wednesday night and do not update thereafter. Times listed are stadium location LOCAL time.

Panthers $2.20 v $1.70 Rabbitohs
FOOTYTAB: PEN +2.5 Teams Analysed on our NRL Injured List


@NRLTweet Player of the Year Award Voters for #NRLPenSou:
| W Nicolson @NRLTweet |
| N Wilbow @parramatters |
Track live round votes via #NRLTweetPOTY| N Wilbow @parramatters |
Panthers - Does Kite come back in for Brown or Latimore? Yeo is named as 18th man possibly as cover for the backline (Whare is the one in doubt apparently). Simmons is not back for another two weeks at least.
Rabbitohs - Reddy is struggling with a knee injury so we may see the return of Champion in the centres or Johnston onto the wing and Goodwin into the centres. Still no Thomas Burgess yet, their bench will look a whole lot better when he comes back though.

Titans $2.10 v $1.75 Broncos
FOOTYTAB: GLD +2.5 Teams Analysed on our NRL Injured List


@NRLTweet Player of the Year Award Voters for #NRLGldBri:
| M McLucas @Jebadude |
| B Hoese @GunnerMcDagget |
Track live round votes via #NRLTweetPOTY
Titans - Sezer should come back in at 6, while Blair moves out to replace Tighe. Zillman is another week away at least if not two with a hamstring injury, while James wasn't even named in QLD Cup - which could be because he is 18th man for 1st Grade.
Broncos - Hodges will start, while Oates likely gets the final bench spot. But Stagg is back in QLD Cup this week and probably makes the 17 sooner or later.

Raiders $1.72 v $2.15 Knights
FOOTYTAB: NEW +1.5 Teams Analysed on our NRL Injured List


@NRLTweet Player of the Year Award Voters for #NRLCanNew:
| J Davies @DragonPunk12 |
| G Delaney @AussieGreg84 |
Track live round votes via #NRLTweetPOTY
Raiders - Not convinced Tupou holds his spot despite being named and Sauiluma didn't prove up to the challenge defensively (reading Penrith's attack wise - he was exposed badly) so maybe Hawkins gets his chance after good form in NSW Cup of late. Boyd and Kennedy will come back in after missing with illness, while Papalii should also return. Learoyd-Lahrs has a few games under his belt in NSW Cup and can't be far away though.
Knights - It was a MNF squad named Tuesday but Wayne Bennett's main inclusion (if he's ready) will be Jarrod Mullen for Michael Dobson at five-eighth. Otherwise Sims might be under pressure from Houston for a bench spot but realistically, I expect Bennett to give his team a chance to bounce back after their bad loss in Nth Qld.

Eels $2.80 v $1.45 Roosters
FOOTYTAB: PAR +6.5 Teams Analysed on our NRL Injured List


@NRLTweet Player of the Year Award Voters for #NRLParSyd:
| V Parmar @vinnyparmar |
| T Schroder @troy_79 |
Track live round votes via #NRLTweetPOTY
Eels - Brad Arthur rewards performance - so hard to see changes for the Eels at home... unless MoiMoi (leg) is not ready to return, in which case Junior Paulo would come straight back in.
Roosters - JWH returns - so it'll be Liu or Napa for the final bench spot. PS - Be afraid NRL, the Roosters are practically full strength now.

Tigers $2.00 v $1.83 Cowboys
FOOTYTAB: NQL +1.5 Teams Analysed on our NRL Injured List


@NRLTweet Player of the Year Award Voters for #NRLWstNql:
| D McLucas @DMcLucas28 |
| V Parmar @vinnyparmar |
Track live round votes via #NRLTweetPOTY
Tigers - Rowe will be the fullback - the club has otherwise made a bad choice to feature him on their website with feel good stories this week - so Lulia will be 18th man and there are unlikely to be any other changes with Austin finally getting his chance this week.
Cowboys - They won by 26 points and didn't concede a try - and knowing how much Paul Green loves his stats - hard to believe anyone gets dropped for Round 6. Taumalolo's shoulder is only a small concern - though Hall likely travels as 18th man.

Warriors $2.05 v $1.80 Bulldogs
FOOTYTAB: WAR +1.5 Teams Analysed on our NRL Injured List


Just one more note - Warriors fans... care to turn out in force please? This is a huge game for showing that Auckland still believes in their team - given it is at Eden Park which if the Warriors can capture their fans' imagination - should be their permanent home.
@NRLTweet Player of the Year Award Voters for #NRLWarCby:
| D Chapman @Mr_DC11 |
| M Perry @Chandler_BANG |
Track live round votes via #NRLTweetPOTY
Warriors - Two extra men on the bench - Havili and Bhana could easily beat out Peyroux and Gubb as they probably fit the makeup of the bench better. Townsend and Mateo will play NSW Cup - hard to think they can get a late reprieve barring injury - simply put: they've been dropped on form.
Bulldogs - Even if Pritchard travels he's no certainty - as co-captain he might simply be going over for a holiday. Though also check if Inu makes the trip as Thompson's spot will eventually become his... especially with Stanley's injury.

Sea Eagles $1.25 v $4.05 Sharks
FOOTYTAB: CRO +10.5 Teams Analysed on our NRL Injured List


@NRLTweet Player of the Year Award Voters for #NRLManCro:
| T Schroder @troy_79 |
| M Vickers @MercurialMattyV |
Track live round votes via #NRLTweetPOTY
Sea Eagles - Taufua is cleared to play but is it in the NRL or NSW Cup? Toovey may not reveal that til Sunday to be honest... Hiku likely misses (but could be on the bench) with Williams holding on to his spot for at least another week if Taufua plays. Hasson or Sene-Lefao will get the final bench spot, with Symonds relegated to NSW Cup. Also King may start for Starling as Toovey looks for some fire early on. Word coming through now that Buhrer has a leg problem and may miss.
Sharks - Arona to start for Heighington probably happens again, while Ryan's comeback is a mystery... Gordon and Carney played last week shrugging off niggles and probably play again... though reports Thursday have Carney in doubt with a virus. Feki in for Wright has also been floated elsewhere.

Storm $1.30 v $3.60 Dragons
FOOTYTAB: SGI +8.5 Teams Analysed on our NRL Injured List


@NRLTweet Player of the Year Award Voters for #NRLMelSgi:
| M Duncan @MrPeninsula |
| W Nicolson @NRLTweet |
Track live round votes via #NRLTweetPOTY
Storm - Don't be surprised to see Glasby replaced on the bench by anyone else not named Glasby... but otherwise squad is settled.
Dragons - Witt surely starts this weekend with Quinlan either missing out or replacing Stanley on the bench, but remember Price loves a smokescreen... it's just a shame they rarely come off. Also don't be stunned if Thompson goes to the bench allowing Ah Mau or Cooper to start.
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@NRLTweet |
Panthers by 2, Broncos by 6, Knights by 4, Roosters by 14, Cowboys by 4, Bulldogs by 2, Sea Eagles by 12, Storm by 10.
LW: 3/8 | SEASON: 17/40
FOOTYTAB:
PEN +2.5, BRI -2.5, NEW +1.5, SYD -6.5, NQL +1.5, WAR +1.5, MAN -10.5, MEL -8.5.
LW: 4/8 | SEASON: 18/40
Special Fried Rice: Sea Eagles -6.5. | Season SFR: 1/5
NQL -10.5, SYD -14.5, SOU -14.5, SOU -8.5, MEL -12.5, MAN -6.5
TIPPING Record after 5 Rounds - 17/40 @ 42.5%
FOOTYTAB Record after 5 Rounds - 18/40 @ 45.0%
SPECIAL FRIED RICE after 5 Rounds - 1/5 @ 20.0%
| V Parmar @vinnyparmar |
| J Gemmell @godofcheeseau |
| T Schroder @troy_79 |
| J Davies @DragonPunk12 |
| M McLucas @Jebadude |
| D McLucas @DMcLucas28 |
| N Wilbow @parramatters |
| G Delaney @AussieGreg84 |
| B Hoese @GunnerMcDagget |
| M Vickers @MercurialMattyV |
| M Perry @Chandler_BANG |
| D Chapman @Mr_DC11 |
| M Duncan @MrPeninsula |
| W Nicolson @NRLTweet |
Subscribe to the NOT The Footy Show Podcast on iTunes here and although we're not sure how often we'll record this year - it's worth being prepared right?