Wednesday 9 April 2014

#NRL 2014: Round 6 Tips Late Mail Preview | #NRLFantasy #NRLSuperCoach #NRLDreamTeam

Round 6 Tips and Late Mail 

2014 National Rugby League Premiership
By W D Nicolson - April 9, 2014

It's Round 6 and here's the skinny kids...

Our tips stink here on in fact, stink might be being too kind.

We are through 40 tips in 2014... and we haven't got to .500 yet.


However... are you doing much better?

Didn't think so... seriously this year has been a nightmare for tipsters.

But the good news is The Postman's Late Mail for all you Fantasy Footy freaks is back...

Remember our Game Previews are now purely the essentials in 2014 - I'll try to write very little fluff and you'll simply (entertainingly) get my read on each game and of course the Late Mail.
Click here for the Leaders after Round 5
You can track each week's @NRLTweet Player of the Year Award Votes on Twitter via this link: #NRLTweetPOTY

The 'Special Fried Rice' picks have returned but given it is me v me, every week - I'll just be listing my 'SFR' of the week with the FootyTab Starts as the variation aspect to keep things interesting vs just saying 'this team will win this week - guaranteed'.

HEADS UP: We will have a new episode of NOT The Footy Show - sometime in the next fortnight. So keep an eye on your iTunes Podcast folders for Episode 151 in the near future.

Round 5 Tipping was just so ordinary - 3/8 and this tipping ship is very close to capsizing... still, let's get to the Tips!
All tips are subject to last minute changes, Game Odds/FootyTab are from Wednesday night and do not update thereafter. Times listed are stadium location LOCAL time.
Friday at Penrith 8:00pm
Panthers $2.20 v $1.70 Rabbitohs
FOOTYTABPEN +2.5 Teams Analysed on our NRL Injured List
Really don't like South Sydney's bench and that plus the game being in Penrith on a Friday night - tips me towards the Panthers. If the Panthers pack rotation can hold the Burgess brothers in check early - then Souths might struggle to score points and though Penrith don't do a great deal for me offensively - Souths need a massive game from Inglis to win this on the road in any kind of shootout. Panthers by 4 points.
@NRLTweet Player of the Year Award Voters for #NRLPenSou:
| W Nicolson @NRLTweet |
| N Wilbow @parramatters |
Track live round votes via #NRLTweetPOTY
LATEST OF LATE MAIL from The Postman:
Panthers - Does Kite come back in for Brown or Latimore? Yeo is named as 18th man possibly as cover for the backline (Whare is the one in doubt apparently). Simmons is not back for another two weeks at least.
Rabbitohs - Reddy is struggling with a knee injury so we may see the return of Champion in the centres or Johnston onto the wing and Goodwin into the centres. Still no Thomas Burgess yet, their bench will look a whole lot better when he comes back though.

Friday at Gold Coast 8:00pm
Titans $2.10 v $1.75 Broncos
FOOTYTABGLD +2.5 Teams Analysed on our NRL Injured List
I may have given the Titans their due for leading the comp earlier this week - but Brisbane should bounce back after a down performance against Parra - and the Titans need Sezer and Kelly to fire inside the attacking 20m zone this week to win. Sounds stupid when a team is 4-1 but they aren't making the most of their field position and Brisbane's pack might stand up this week I reckon. Home ground isn't a factor - so Brisbane it is and Barba gets at least 2 tries to break his Bronco duck. Broncos by 6 points.
@NRLTweet Player of the Year Award Voters for #NRLGldBri:
| M McLucas @Jebadude |
| B Hoese @GunnerMcDagget |
Track live round votes via #NRLTweetPOTY
LATEST OF LATE MAIL from The Postman:
Titans - Sezer should come back in at 6, while Blair moves out to replace Tighe. Zillman is another week away at least if not two with a hamstring injury, while James wasn't even named in QLD Cup - which could be because he is 18th man for 1st Grade.
Broncos - Hodges will start, while Oates likely gets the final bench spot. But Stagg is back in QLD Cup this week and probably makes the 17 sooner or later.

Saturday at Canberra 3:00pm
Raiders $1.72 v $2.15 Knights
FOOTYTABNEW +1.5 Teams Analysed on our NRL Injured List
This game comes down to Tyrone Roberts v Anthony Milford doing the most whatever field position is handed to them from their respective packs... I think the Knights will be fired up after a poor effort in Nth Qld - while the Raiders really should have beaten Penrith given their possession in the last 15 mins down by just 6 points. Road wins aren't beyond the Knights and the Raiders haven't taken their chances at all this year... so it's Newcastle please. Knights by 4 points.
@NRLTweet Player of the Year Award Voters for #NRLCanNew:
| J Davies @DragonPunk12 |
| G Delaney @AussieGreg84 |
Track live round votes via #NRLTweetPOTY
LATEST OF LATE MAIL from The Postman:
Raiders - Not convinced Tupou holds his spot despite being named and Sauiluma didn't prove up to the challenge defensively (reading Penrith's attack wise - he was exposed badly) so maybe Hawkins gets his chance after good form in NSW Cup of late. Boyd and Kennedy will come back in after missing with illness, while Papalii should also return. Learoyd-Lahrs has a few games under his belt in NSW Cup and can't be far away though.
Knights - It was a MNF squad named Tuesday but Wayne Bennett's main inclusion (if he's ready) will be Jarrod Mullen for Michael Dobson at five-eighth. Otherwise Sims might be under pressure from Houston for a bench spot but realistically, I expect Bennett to give his team a chance to bounce back after their bad loss in Nth Qld.

Saturday at Parramatta 5:30pm
Eels $2.80 v $1.45 Roosters
FOOTYTABPAR +6.5 Teams Analysed on our NRL Injured List
Roosters, Roosters, Roosters... it's not like I haven't liked what Parra have done of late but I've watched Easts play in person the past fortnight and they have defended exceptionally and still lost... unless Parra can do the same - the Chooks could win this by a large margin... for the second time this year. Surprise me Parra - genuinely, please do. Roosters by 14 points.
@NRLTweet Player of the Year Award Voters for #NRLParSyd:
| V Parmar @vinnyparmar |
| T Schroder @troy_79 |
Track live round votes via #NRLTweetPOTY
LATEST OF LATE MAIL from The Postman:
Eels - Brad Arthur rewards performance - so hard to see changes for the Eels at home... unless MoiMoi (leg) is not ready to return, in which case Junior Paulo would come straight back in.
Roosters - JWH returns - so it'll be Liu or Napa for the final bench spot. PS - Be afraid NRL, the Roosters are practically full strength now.

Saturday at Campbelltown 7:35pm
Tigers $2.00 v $1.83 Cowboys
FOOTYTABNQL +1.5 Teams Analysed on our NRL Injured List
Have enjoyed watching the Tigers at times this year but just as you get enthused about them... well they've been smashed. First the Dragons in Round 1 (I liked what potential the Tigers had pre-Rd1) and then by the Warriors in Round 4. So who knows what we get this week... as for the Cowboys - the same rings true but if there's a game that I like JT in - it is an open game like this one promises to be. Risky going the Cowboys on the road - but it's not like I'm tipping well anyway in 2014! Cowboys by 4 points.
@NRLTweet Player of the Year Award Voters for #NRLWstNql:
| D McLucas @DMcLucas28 |
V Parmar @vinnyparmar |
Track live round votes via #NRLTweetPOTY
LATEST OF LATE MAIL from The Postman:
Tigers - Rowe will be the fullback - the club has otherwise made a bad choice to feature him on their website with feel good stories this week - so Lulia will be 18th man and there are unlikely to be any other changes with Austin finally getting his chance this week.
Cowboys - They won by 26 points and didn't concede a try - and knowing how much Paul Green loves his stats - hard to believe anyone gets dropped for Round 6. Taumalolo's shoulder is only a small concern - though Hall likely travels as 18th man.

Sunday at Eden Park 4:00pm
Warriors $2.05 v $1.80 Bulldogs
FOOTYTABWAR +1.5 Teams Analysed on our NRL Injured List
Shoot me now having to make a choice here... I'm not tipping the Warriors and despite the Bulldogs taking out the Storm and Roosters in back to back weeks... I'm hardly convinced about them either. To be honest didn't rate Andrew McFadden's first team for turning things around potential - so Dogs it is even on the road. Bulldogs by 2 points.
Just one more note - Warriors fans... care to turn out in force please? This is a huge game for showing that Auckland still believes in their team - given it is at Eden Park which if the Warriors can capture their fans' imagination - should be their permanent home.
@NRLTweet Player of the Year Award Voters for #NRLWarCby:
| D Chapman @Mr_DC11 |
| M Perry @Chandler_BANG |
Track live round votes via #NRLTweetPOTY
LATEST OF LATE MAIL from The Postman:
Warriors - Two extra men on the bench - Havili  and Bhana could easily beat out Peyroux and Gubb as they probably fit the makeup of the bench better. Townsend and Mateo will play NSW Cup - hard to think they can get a late reprieve barring injury - simply put: they've been dropped on form.
Bulldogs - Even if Pritchard travels he's no certainty - as co-captain he might simply be going over for a holiday. Though also check if Inu makes the trip as Thompson's spot will eventually become his... especially with Stanley's injury.

Sunday at Brookvale 3:00pm
Sea Eagles $1.25 v $4.05 Sharks
FOOTYTABCRO +10.5 Teams Analysed on our NRL Injured List
Manly's pack and veteran crew surely can't turn it up two weeks in a row... while Cronulla were gifted their first win of the year last weekend by the Warriors. Manly at Brookie please. Sea Eagles by 12 points.
@NRLTweet Player of the Year Award Voters for #NRLManCro:
| T Schroder @troy_79 |
| M Vickers @MercurialMattyV |
Track live round votes via #NRLTweetPOTY
LATEST OF LATE MAIL from The Postman:
Sea Eagles - Taufua is cleared to play but is it in the NRL or NSW Cup? Toovey may not reveal that til Sunday to be honest... Hiku likely misses (but could be on the bench) with Williams holding on to his spot for at least another week if Taufua plays. Hasson or Sene-Lefao will get the final bench spot, with Symonds relegated to NSW Cup. Also King may start for Starling as Toovey looks for some fire early on. Word coming through now that Buhrer has a leg problem and may miss.
Sharks - Arona to start for Heighington probably happens again, while Ryan's comeback is a mystery... Gordon and Carney played last week shrugging off niggles and probably play again... though reports Thursday have Carney in doubt with a virus. Feki in for Wright has also been floated elsewhere.

Monday at AAMI 7:00pm
Storm $1.30 v $3.60 Dragons
FOOTYTABSGI +8.5 Teams Analysed on our NRL Injured List
Melbourne... no way I'm putting my faith in the Dragons on the road (even though somehow adding Michael Witt is an upgrade) and despite showing some good signs against the Gold Coast, Melbourne have a ways to go to turn their attitude around - and by that I mean: they refuse to lose. I think it returns this Monday, possibly in emphatic fashion. Storm by 10 points.
@NRLTweet Player of the Year Award Voters for #NRLMelSgi:
| M Duncan @MrPeninsula |
| W Nicolson @NRLTweet |
Track live round votes via #NRLTweetPOTY
LATEST OF LATE MAIL from The Postman:
Storm - Don't be surprised to see Glasby replaced on the bench by anyone else not named Glasby... but otherwise squad is settled.
Dragons - Witt surely starts this weekend with Quinlan either missing out or replacing Stanley on the bench, but remember Price loves a smokescreen... it's just a shame they rarely come off. Also don't be stunned if Thompson goes to the bench allowing Ah Mau or Cooper to start.
Warrick D. Nicolson, The NRL Tweet
Panthers by 2, Broncos by 6, Knights by 4, Roosters by 14, Cowboys by 4, Bulldogs by 2, Sea Eagles by 12, Storm by 10.
LW: 3/8 | SEASON: 17/40
PEN +2.5, BRI -2.5, NEW +1.5, SYD -6.5, NQL +1.5, WAR +1.5, MAN -10.5, MEL -8.5.
LW: 4/8 | SEASON: 18/40
Special Fried Rice: Sea Eagles -6.5. | Season SFR: 1/5
NQL -10.5, SYD -14.5, SOU -14.5, SOU -8.5, MEL -12.5, MAN -6.5
TIPPING Record after 5 Rounds - 17/40 @ 42.5%
FOOTYTAB Record after 5 Rounds - 18/40 @ 45.0%
SPECIAL FRIED RICE after 5 Rounds - 1/5 @ 20.0%
| V Parmar @vinnyparmar |
| J Gemmell @godofcheeseau |
| T Schroder @troy_79 |
| J Davies @DragonPunk12 |
| M McLucas @Jebadude |
| D McLucas @DMcLucas28 |
| N Wilbow @parramatters |
| G Delaney @AussieGreg84 |
| B Hoese @GunnerMcDagget |
| M Vickers @MercurialMattyV |
| M Perry @Chandler_BANG |
| D Chapman @Mr_DC11 |
| M Duncan @MrPeninsula |
| W Nicolson @NRLTweet |
Subscribe to the NOT The Footy Show Podcast on iTunes here and although we're not sure how often we'll record this year - it's worth being prepared right?