Latest NOT The Footy Show Podcasts

Sunday, 29 July 2012

NRL 2012: The Run Home to September... Your Team's Finals Chances

THE RUN HOME...
2012 NRL Playoff Push
By W D Nicolson 


So who plays in the meaningful games come September?

NOT The Footy Show has already taken you through each of the 13 teams who were still in contention entering Round 21 in our latest NRL Podcast - but with Round 21 now all but over - let's see where all the teams are placed with 5 games to go.

The results are predicted from Round 22 on, obviously there are variables that are not able to be taken into consideration when predicting games in the future - but this is our best guesstimate.


This is a guide to what might happen, it's impossible to say what will.


How do you see the Top 8 shaping up? Comment below.


Minor Premiership contenders...
CANTERBURY BULLDOGS
End Round 20: 1st (13-5 for 30pts, +156)
R21 - v Cowboys WIN 32-18
R22 - @ Knights WIN
R23 - v Broncos LOSS
R24 - v Tigers WIN
R25 - @ Raiders WIN
R26 - v Roosters WIN
Predicted Total: 5W 1L for 10 points, finish with 40 points
Predicted Finish: 1st

MELBOURNE STORM
End Round 20: 2nd (12-6 for 28pts, +155)
R21 - @ Dragons LOSS 26-18
R22 - v Panthers WIN
R23 - v Titans WIN
R24 - @ Broncos WIN
R25 - v Sharks WIN
R26 - @ Tigers WIN
Predicted Total: 5W 1L for 10 points, finish with 38 points
Predicted Finish: 2nd
SOUTH SYDNEY RABBITOHS
End Round 20: 3rd (12-6 for 28 points, +77)
R21 - v Tigers WIN 32-6
R22 - @ Titans WIN
R23 - v Sea Eagles LOSS
R24 - @ Sharks WIN
R25 - v Eels WIN
R26 - @ Knights WIN
Predicted Total: 5W 1L for 10 points, finish with 38 points
Predicted Finish: 3rd
NORTH QUEENSLAND COWBOYS
End Round 20: 4th (11-7 for 26 points, +96)
R21 - @ Bulldogs LOSS 32-18
R22 - v Sea Eagles LOSS 
R23 - v Warriors WIN
R24 - @ Dragons WIN
R25 - v Knights WIN
R26 - @ Sharks WIN
Predicted Total: 4W 2L for 8 points, finish with 34 points
Predicted Finish: 5th
BRISBANE BRONCOS
End Round 20: 5th (11-7 for 26 points, +82)
R21 - v Eels WIN TBC
R22 - @ Raiders WIN
R23 - @ Bulldogs WIN
R24 - v Storm LOSS
R25 - @ Sea Eagles LOSS
R26 - v Panthers WIN
Predicted Total: 4W 2L for 8 points, finish with 34 points
Predicted Finish: 6th

On the bubble...
CRONULLA SHARKS
End Round 20: 6th (10-7-1 for 25 points, -11)
R21 - v Panthers LOSS 21-10
R22 - @ Warriors LOSS
R23 - @ Knights WIN
R24 - v Rabbitohs LOSS
R25 - @ Storm LOSS
R26 - v Cowboys LOSS
Predicted Total: 1W 5L for 2 points, finish with 27 points
Predicted Finish: 9th
MANLY SEA EAGLES
End Round 20: 7th (19-8 for 24 points, +33)
R21 - v Warriors WIN 24-22
R22 - @ Cowboys WIN
R23 - @ Rabbitohs WIN
R24 - v Knights WIN
R25 - v Broncos WIN
R26 - @ Titans WIN
Predicted Total: 6W 0L for 12 points, finish with 36 points
Predicted Finish: 4th
WESTS TIGERS
End Round 20: 8th (9-9 for 22 points, -9)
R21 - @ Rabbitohs LOSS 32-6
R22 - v Eels WIN
R23 - v Dragons WIN
R24 - @ Bulldogs LOSS
R25 - @ Roosters WIN
R26 - v Storm LOSS
Predicted Total: 3W 3L for 6 points, finish with 28 points
Predicted Finish: 8th

On the outside looking in...
WARRIORS
End Round 20: 9th (8-10 for 20 points, +25)
R21 - @ Sea Eagles LOSS 24-22
R22 - v Sharks WIN
R23 - @ Cowboys LOSS
R24 - v Panthers WIN
R25 - @ Dragons WIN
R26 - v Raiders WIN
Predicted Total: 4W 2L for 8 points, finish with 28 points
Predicted Finish: 7th
GOLD COAST TITANS
End Round 20: 10th (8-10 for 20 points, -22)
R21 - @ Roosters WIN 36-16
R22 - v Rabbitohs  LOSS
R23 - @ Storm  LOSS
R24 - v Eels WIN
R25 - @ Panthers LOSS
R26 - v Sea Eagles LOSS
Predicted Total: 2W 4L for 4 points, finish with 24 points
Predicted Finish: 11th
NEWCASTLE KNIGHTS
End Round 20: 11th (8-10 for 20 points, -34)
R21 - @ Raiders WIN 36-6
R22 - v Bulldogs LOSS
R23 - v Sharks WIN
R24 - @ Sea Eagles LOSS
R25 - @ Cowboys LOSS
R26 - v Rabbitohs LOSS
Predicted Total: 2W 4L for 4 points, finish with 24 points
Predicted Finish: 12th
CANBERRA RAIDERS
End Round 20: 12th (8-10 for 20 points, -39)
R21 - v Knights LOSS 36-6
R22 - v Broncos LOSS
R23 - @ Panthers WIN
R24 - v Roosters WIN
R25 - v Bulldogs LOSS
R26 - @ Warriors LOSS
Predicted Total: 2W 4L for 4 points, finish with 24 points
Predicted Finish: 13th
ST GEORGE ILLAWARRA DRAGONS
End Round 20: 13th (8-10 for 20 points, -58)
R21 - v Storm WIN 26-18
R22 - @ Roosters WIN
R23 - @ Tigers LOSS
R24 - v Cowboys LOSS
R25 - v Warriors LOSS
R26 - @ Eels WIN
Predicted Total: 3W 3L for 6 points - finish with 26 points.
Predicted Finish: 10th

Goooooone, no chance lance.
SYDNEY ROOSTERS | End Round 21: 14th (6-12-1 for 17 points, -154)
PENRITH PANTHERS | End Round 21: 15th (6-13 for 16 points, -125)
PARRAMATTA EELS | End Round 20: 16th (4-14 for 12 points, -191)
PREDICTED LADDER... (From Round 22-26)
40 - BULLDOGS
38 - STORM
38 - RABBITOHS
36 - SEA EAGLES
36 - COWBOYS
34 - BRONCOS
28 - WARRIORS
28 - TIGERS
==============
27 - SHARKS
26 - DRAGONS
24 - TITANS
24 - KNIGHTS
24 - RAIDERS
18 - PANTHERS
17 - ROOSTERS
14 - EELS

So that would leave the Opening Weekend of the Finals as:
QF1: Bulldogs v Sea Eagles at ANZ | Winner advances to PF1
QF2: Storm v Rabbitohs @ AAMI Park/Etihad | Winner advances to PF2
EF1: Cowboys v Tigers @ Dairy Farmers | Winner plays loser QF1 in SF1
EF2: Broncos v Warriors @ Suncorp | Winner plays loser QF2 in SF2

Remember the big difference between this system and the one the ARL had in 1995/96 is that there is a cross over that happens in the 2nd week (Semi Finals) that allows the teams who play off in the first week from the Top 4 to play each other in the Grand Final. This was not the case in 1995 for example when Canberra played Brisbane as team's 2 v 3 and would have played each other again in the Preliminary Final 2 weeks later had Canterbury not beaten Brisbane in their respective semi final.

Agree or Disagree? And most importantly - why?

Post your comments below or reply @NRLTweet
Get the whole scoop on... 

NOT The Footy Show Episode 117
Round 21 NRL Preview - Released Wednesday July 25, 2012
Right Click Save Target As This Link if you don't have iTunes for the MP3 File.

Subscribe to the Podcast via this link / Download mp3 version

LIKE the show on Facebook for all the latest updates.
NOT The Footy Show will release another Podcast next Wednesday night - August 1 with our Round 22 Preview.

No comments: