NRL ROUND 23 TIPPING PREVIEWBy W D Nicolson
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Well good evening footy fans... do we give the Dogs or Souths the premiership or are their current 16-game combined winning streak just a good way to boost their confidence before the big boys come good in September?Judging by last week's wins by Manly and Melbourne - we might be hesitant to give the Dogs and Souths the title for good reason.
Manly won a tough game with the Cowboys in Townsville and the Storm woke up and remembered how to attack against the Panthers.
Yes the Dogs used a great start and great defence to beat Newcastle, while the Bunnies did much the same to beat the Titans.
But what the heck has happened to the Broncos?
Those questions and more are answered in this this week's NOT The Footy Show Podcast.
Grab the 57 minute Podcast right here
Be sure to check all the Team news on the NRL Injured List which is updated every Tuesday afternoon - and the Podcast has plenty of insight on those selections and your Late Mail and Panel Picks are below.
| Full Round 23 Tips are Sea Eagles by 6, Storm by 12, Eels by 10, Cowboys by 4, Tigers by 2, Panthers by 4, Bulldogs by 10 and Knights by 1.
| My 'Locks' are Melbourne and Cowboys; My 'Less than Confidents' are Knights and Eels, while My 'Don't put the house on Its' are the Sea Eagles, Tigers, Bulldogs and Panthers.
Good luck with that.
All the panel's picks are below with their Special Fried Rice selections - which is our lock of the week but we can't choose the same team.
09/08 Odds are courtesy of Sportingbet Australia
For some more insight into the markets check out NOT The Footy Show's resident betting maestro's site GT Tips http://www.gttips.co.uk
All Kick-Offs are LOCAL time.
If you have any reputable mail - Let me know via @NRLTweet
RABBITOHS $1.85 v $2.00 SEA EAGLES
Roy Asotasi is set to play one more game for the Bears in the NSW Cup before making his NRL comeback but still, wouldn't surprise anyone if he did play against Manly. Dave Tyrrell will be 18th man. Manly should be 1-17 if Jason King and Steven Matai pull up well on Friday morning, with Tim Robinson and Dean Whare the leftover players unless King and Matai miss.
| Give me Manly... Souths are playing great but Manly need a statement against the Top 4 and this is a golden opportunity to say they are here and ready to defend their title.
STORM $1.36 v $3.25 TITANS (+8.5)
Storm might leave Anthony Quinn out and play a youngster such as Mahe Fonua or Young Tonumaipea for this home game. The other option is giving Dane Nielsen a reprieve before the finals after dropping him to NSW Cup last week. Justin O'Neill's groin should be fine, while Kevin Proctor may also start with Sika Manu going to the bench. The Titans hope Greg Bird is ready to play and if he is passed fit - Ben Ridge or Luke O'Dwyer would likely miss out to accommodate his inclusion. The other option is to move Luke O'Dwyer to the centres and omit Steve Michaels.
| Melbourne win if they are fair dinkumly back...
EELS (+1.5) $2.00 v $1.80 ROOSTERS
While Brad Arthur told me on Wednesday that he is giving the same 17 from last week a chance to make up for their poor defensive effort - I'm not convinced there isn't a late change in the centres with Cheyse Blair making way for possibly Willie Tonga or another player. The Roosters will choose between Brad Takairangi and Lama Tasi for the final spot in their 17.
| Parra's defence will come good and the Roosters played their final 'big game' last weekend.
COWBOYS $1.38 v $3.15 WARRIORS (+8.0)
The Cowboys could start Ray Thompson at halfback and move Michael Morgan to the bench or out of the 17 entirely if Anthony Mitchell is preferred as the utility (word from the Cowboys is Ricky Thorby and Mitchell miss out with Jason Taumalolo a chance to come in as 18th man). The Warriors took Simon Mannering and James Maloney to Townsville despite not naming either player but Maloney seems to be the only one with a genuine chance to play. Konrad Hurrell should be fine.
| North Queensland went close last week and back up with a victory here, the Warriors have to win to stay alive but we said that last week and they got smashed at home by Cronulla.
TIGERS $1.65 v $2.30 DRAGONS (+3.5)
Gareth Ellis should shake off a bruised ankle and start, while Tim Simona could make way on the bench for another forward. The Dragons could start Jack Stockwell over Josh Miller (out with a rough head) but then again, they are known to bring in unnamed players... hello Beau Scott? Jamie Soward will play, it's a matter of whether he starts or not.
| Tigers in a tight one... Dragons are every chance but hard to back give how they attacked v Roosters.
PANTHERS (+2.0) $2.12 v $1.75 RAIDERS
Penrith should be 1-16 and either Danny Galea or Nigel Plum get the final bench spot. The Raiders will give Dane Tilse every chance to play if his wife hasn't given birth before kick-off and Bronson Harrison could come in regardless for Mark Nicholls or Joe Picker on the bench.
| Penrith did win 2 in a row before getting smashed in Melbourne - that's kinda form as far as the Panthers go... Canberra surprised everyone winning at home last week and are complete wild cards, so avoid them.
BULLDOGS $1.31 v $3.55 BRONCOS (+10.0)
Don't choke on your cornflakes but the spies have reported that not only has the DT indicated Corey Parker is a strong chance to play but wdnicolson.com's man in Brisbane has confirmed at this stage Parker IS playing. Wowser... but we've been burnt before. For those Fantasy players - take the punt he plays but don't think you'll definitely avoid a donut.
Sam Kasiano might be a late inclusion but the Dogs don't have to rush him. Kris Keating should be back with Corey Payne possibly under the most pressure from Joel Romelo for the final bench spot. James Graham will overcome a knee injury in all likelihood. Corey Norman is at fullback for the demoted Josh Hoffman and Justin Hodges should play. Luke Capewell becomes the bench utility.
| Dogs will lose... just not this week. Broncos make a tough stand on Hoffman but either way they have to play out of their skins here to win... which is possible I guess.
KNIGHTS $1.75 v $2.12 SHARKS (+2.0)
Kade Snowden will play, Joel Edwards has been made 18th man with Zane Tetevano now in the 17 and Alex McKinnon will start for Neville Costigan. Cronulla will give Bryce Gibbs and Wade Graham practically until kick-off to prove their fitness, while Tyron Frizell/Mark Taufua/Ricky Leutele would probably make way if both played.
| Knights showed me enough last week to beat the Sharks... that is unless Cronulla score 24 points in 15 minutes like the Dogs did.
For more on how we see the Weekend unfolding, check out the Podcast and Preview below.
For game-specific Late Mail every week - check back on Friday (or if there's an earlier game, earlier) for all your tipping and fantasy game needs.
IN THE PODCAST...
On this week's NOT The Footy Show Episode 119: DC Chapman joins Warrick Nicolson to chat to Matt 'Fremantle' Duncan to discuss Des Hasler's lack of respect for referees (and his team's performance evidently), Crowd Over/Unders for Round 23, Bye Bye Lote Tuqiri/Hello Marika Koroibete, What went wrong for the Warriors?, Ricky Stuart steps down as NSW coach for Phil Gould? and Finally how good is the open footy some teams are playing now?
Plus Eyes isn't well but he still finds time to talk to Mr DC about the game the youngster is attending on Sunday.
And as always we give you a full odds preview of Round 23 with all our picks (and GT's!) and Special Fried Rice selections.
NOT The Footy Show 58 minutes of what you've come to expect from our dedicated footy crew.
NOT The Footy Show Episode 119Round 23 NRL Preview - Released Wednesday August 8, 2012
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NOT The Footy Show will release another Podcast next Wednesday night - August 15 with our Round 24 Preview.
This year not only do you get The NRL Tweet's Tips each week but the whole NOT The Footy Show team will have their picks listed by Thursday so you can back a smoky or a favourite by seeing who we all picked (or didn't pick).