STATE OF ORIGIN 2012
NSW v QLD GAME 1 PREVIEW
By W D Nicolson, May 22, 2012
The wait is over ladies and gents, in less than 24 hour Queensland will start their quest for an incredible 7th straight Origin series win, while New South Wales will be trying to win their first Game 1 since 2008.
Of course Darren Lockyer has retired, but Queensland will return all bar Corey Parker and Jacob Lillyman from the team that sealed the 2011 series with a comprehensive smashing of the Blues in Game 3 in Brisbane.
As for the Blues - changes abound but for the first time in years - they are positive point seeking changes that NSW have ignored for far too many years.
But the bottom line is this - Queensland's team of champions have been playing together for years and this new group of NSW attacking weapons will be playing together for pretty much the first time at this level - a team like NSW has won series in the past in huge upsets but right at the moment daring to dream that the Blues can win Game 1 and heap the pressure on Queensland is just a little fanciful at this stage.
Though if the Blues get up in Game 1 - consider www.wdnicolson.com well and truly on the NSW train!
That's not to say we can't see NSW winning the series - far from it, this team is the best NSW have had since Joey Johns retired from rep footy - but let's just say we've been burnt before...
Game 1 kicks-off at around 8:00pm on Wednesday May 23 at Etihad Stadium in Melbourne.
NOT The Footy Show Episode 107
NSW v QLD Game 1 Predictions - Released Monday May 21, 2012
Right Click Save Target As This Link if you don't have iTunes for the MP3 File.
GAME 1 PREDICTIONSOn the latest episode of NOT The Footy Show's NRL Podcast (Subscribe here to get the 40 minute long Episode 107) our panel revealed their 'cutting edge' State of Origin Game 1 Predictions across 14 categories.
There's the basic ones - 1st tryscorer, HT/FT score, Man of the Match etc, then we have our patented (and borrowed heavily from the US version of PTI) Over/Unders for special categories pertaining to the game.
FULL TIME SCORE
Warrick Nicolson - QLD 18-12
Matthew Duncan - QLD 30-10
Dave Chapman - NSW 16-12
Maria Tsialis - QLD 20-14
George Taylor - QLD 28-20
HALF TIME SCORE
Warrick Nicolson - QLD 12-6
Matthew Duncan - QLD 18-6
Dave Chapman - NSW 12-6
Maria Tsialis - QLD 10-6
George Taylor - QLD 20-10
MAN OF THE MATCH
Warrick Nicolson - Cameron Smith
Matthew Duncan - Greg Inglis
Dave Chapman - Todd Carney
Maria Tsialis - Cameron Smith
George Taylor - Greg Inglis
1ST TRYSCORER
Warrick Nicolson - Justin Hodges
Matthew Duncan - Greg Inglis
Dave Chapman - Akuila Uate
Maria Tsialis - Greg Inglis
George Taylor - Greg Inglis
LAST TRYSCORER
Warrick Nicolson - Billy Slater
Matthew Duncan - Greg Inglis
Dave Chapman - James Tamou
Maria Tsialis - Michael Jennings
George Taylor - Josh Morris
1ST ERROR MADE
Warrick Nicolson - Johnathan Thurston
Matthew Duncan - Todd Carney
Dave Chapman - Brett Stewart
Maria Tsialis - Robbie Farah
George Taylor - Michael Jennings
1ST PENALTY CONCEDED
Warrick Nicolson - Greg Bird
Matthew Duncan - Paul Gallen
Dave Chapman - Nate Myles
Maria Tsialis - James Tamou
George Taylor - Nate Myles
MOST TACKLES
Warrick Nicolson - Cameron Smith
Matthew Duncan - Ashley Harrison
Dave Chapman - Cameron Smith
Maria Tsialis - Paul Gallen
George Taylor - Cameron Smith
MOST METRES
Warrick Nicolson - Paul Gallen
Matthew Duncan - Paul Gallen
Dave Chapman - Sam Thaiday
Maria Tsialis - Paul Gallen
George Taylor - Akuila Uate
OVER/UNDER OPTIONS
Simply put you decide if the player in question will have more or less than the predetermined figure - set at a half point.
JAMIE BUHRER - Over/Under 5.5 Total Minutes
Warrick Nicolson - Under
Matthew Duncan - Under
Dave Chapman - Over
Maria Tsialis - Under
George Taylor - Over
PETERO CIVONICEVA - Over/Under 27.5 Total Minutes
Warrick Nicolson - Under
Matthew Duncan - Over
Dave Chapman - Under
Maria Tsialis - Over
George Taylor - Over
TODD CARNEY - Over/Under 1.5 Total Tries + Try Assists
Warrick Nicolson - Under
Matthew Duncan - Under
Dave Chapman - Over
Maria Tsialis - Over
George Taylor - Over
BILLY SLATER - Over/Under 1.5 Total Tries + Try Assists
Warrick Nicolson - Under
Matthew Duncan - Over
Dave Chapman - Over
Maria Tsialis - Over
George Taylor - Over
TOTAL PENALTIES - Over/Under 6.5
Warrick Nicolson - Over
Matthew Duncan - Over
Dave Chapman - Under
Maria Tsialis - Under
George Taylor - Over
For the record www.wdnicolson.com is predicting an 18-12 QLD victory.
QLD 18 (J Hodges, C Cronk, B Slater Tries; J Thurston 3/3 Goals)Defeat
NSW 12 (J Morris, L Lewis Tries; T Carney 2/2 Goals)
TEAMS GAME ONE
- Official Game 1 Team-
FB: Billy SLATER
WI: Darius BOYD
CE: Greg INGLIS
CE: Justin HODGES
WI: Brent TATE
FE: Johnathan THURSTON
HB: Cooper CRONK
PR: Matthew SCOTT
HK: Cameron SMITH (c)
PR: Petero CIVONICEVA
SR: Nate MYLES
SR: Sam THAIDAY
LK: Ashley HARRISON
Bench:
Matt GILLETT
Ben HANNANT
David SHILLINGTON
Dave TAYLOR
Coach: Mal Meninga
QUICK HIT POSITIONAL ANALYSIS:
This squad has won SIX straight Origin series... suffice to say it's pretty good all over the park.
- Official Game 1 Squad -
Likely starting team below.
FB: Brett STEWART
WI: Jarryd HAYNE
CE: Michael JENNINGS
CE: Josh MORRIS
WI: Akuila UATE
FE: Todd CARNEY
HB: Mitchell PEARCE
PR: James TAMOU
HK: Robbie FARAH
PR: Paul GALLEN (c)
SR: Greg BIRD
SR: Luke LEWIS
LK: Glenn STEWART
Bench:
Jamie BUHRER
Ben CREAGH
Trent MERRIN
Tony WILLIAMS
Coach: Ricky STUART.
QUICK HIT POSITIONAL ANALYSIS:
NSW have finally rolled the dice with a few x-factors in the lineup to support a very good forward pack... but can they be big enough x-factors when you compare them to QLD's five or six?
If you've got a view - let us know in the comments below or via @NRLTweet
NOT The Footy Show's State of Origin Game 1 Preview Podcast featuring an interview with NSW legend Paul Sironen can be listened to or downloaded below.
State of Origin Game 1 Preview with Paul Sironen - Released Wednesday May 16, 2012
Right Click Save Target As This Link if you don't have iTunes for the MP3 File.
CAN THE COCKROACHES BREAK THE CANE TOADS DOMINANCE THIS YEAR?
NOT The Footy Show's NSW and QLD Game 1 Review will be released on Thursday May 24th via an iTunes Podcast. Subscribe to the Podcast here.
