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Tuesday, 15 May 2012

NRL 2012: Round 11 NRL Preview Tips Teams Predictions Late Mail Fantasy News Odds

NRL ROUND 11 TIPPING PREVIEW
By W D Nicolson 

Okay so Origin is really all that matters at this time of year but if I stop producing this all encompassing Round Preview you'd just get poorly informed elsewhere.

Even though www.wdnicolson.com is off to Melbourne this weekend - that means you get the preview two days early! It'll be updated with Late Mail Thursday and Friday, and the Podcast featuring our Origin Preview with NSW legend Paul Sironen will be available on Wednesday night.

That all sounds great... if only we didn't tip so badly last weekend after three weeks of great form...

For more on how we see the Weekend unfolding, check out the Podcast and Preview below.

For game-specific Late Mail every week - check back on Friday (or if there's an earlier game, earlier) for all your tipping and fantasy game needs.

NOT The Footy Show Episode 106
WITH PAUL SIRONEN OUR SPECIAL GUEST!
State of Origin Game 1 and Round 11 Preview - Released Wednesday May 16, 2012
Right Click Save Target As This Link if you don't have iTunes for the MP3 File.

NOT The Footy Show airs again next Monday night - May 21 with our comprehensive tip guide to Origin 1 with Matt Duncan and Warrick Nicolson - airs at 9:35pm.

Subscribe to the Podcast via this link /  Download mp3 version

1st Prize: NRL Match Steeden Ball. 2nd to 5th: NTFS Club Mascot T-Shirts.
NRL ROUND 11 PREVIEW - 2012
15/05 Odds are courtesy of Sportingbet Australia
For some more insight into the markets check out NOT The Footy Show's new resident tipster's site GT Tips http://www.gttips.co.uk
All Kick-Offs are LOCAL time.


FRIDAY - MAY 18
TIGERS $1.80 v $2.00 WARRIORS 
WAR +1.5 | GAME STATS | @ Leichhardt Oval, Leichhardt. 7:35pm Kick-Off.

NRL TWEET PLAYER OF THE YEAR AWARD VOTERS
M Spillane and M Vickers. Follow #NRLTweetPOTY for every Vote in 2012.
COMING IN
Tigers are 4-5 and 9th, Warriors are 5-5 and 8th.
HEAD TO HEAD LAST 10
Tigers 4 Warriors 6
Tigers have won 3 of last 4 - but that Warriors win came in the semi final last year.
TUESDAY TEAM NEWS

WTG: T Moltzen, B Ryan, J Reddy, B Ayshford, L Tuqiri, C Lawrence, B Marshall, A Woods, T Humble, K Galloway, A Blair, L Fulton, M Bell.
Bench: B Murdoch-Masila, M Utai, R Cashmere, P Politoni.
[Team Changes - The Tigers have lost Robbie Farah (to Origin finally!) and Tom Humble will start at hooker and Chris Lawrence continues at five-eighth. Matt Utai and Pat Politoni are added to the bench with Junior Moors missing out. ]

WAR: G Fisiiahi, B Tupou, B Henry, K Hurrell, M Vatuvei, J Maloney, S Johnson, R Packer, A Mara, B Matulino, E Taylor, S Mannering (c), F Mateo.
Bench: L Brown, Sam Rapira, Sione Lousi, J Lillyman.
[Team Changes - The Warriors aren't touched by Origin with Jacob Lillyman and Feleti Mateo failing to get call ups to QLD or NSW. Sam Rapira returns from an ankle injury on the bench for Ukuma Ta'ai, while Glen Fisiiahi goes to fullback after the season ending injury to Jerome Ropati. Lewis Brown and Alehana Mara will share time at hooker once again. ]
THURSDAY GAME PREVIEW
Listen to the Podcast for a full preview, but we like the Warriors at this stage - Farah is a gigantic loss for the Tigers who still don't have Ellis or Heighington.
TIPPING AND FANTASY LATE MAIL
SMH and Other Late Mail - The Tigers should be 1-17 with Matt Utai back from injury, Chris Heighington won't be rushed back until the next week or two. Pita Godinet is the travelling 18th man for the Warriors who get Sam Rapira back from an ankle injury - and he could start for Russell Packer.
THE NRL TWEET'S PICK
Warriors by 8.

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NOT The Footy Show Video for Round 11 and State of Origin - No Video this week.

In the Podcast: 

NSW Legend Paul Sironen talks State of Origin Game 1 and what it means to be a New South Welshman.

NOT The Footy Show has delivered another huge guest at the best time of the season - hear how he learned about Origin the hard way, cut down the 'Axe' Trevor Gillmeister in an Origin game in Melbourne and enjoyed his role in the Blues dynasty from 90-94. It's a great chat with a passionate Cockroach - please take a listen.

So join Warrick Nicolson and DC Chapman - plus a quick look at the teams from a Queenslander we tolerate called Matt Duncan, as they talk Origin 1 Teams - Predictions, Game Plans, NSW Snubs, and also find time to preview Round 11 and talk some NRL News on NOT The Footy Show Episode 106.

NOT The Footy Show is moderately priced footy goodness.
1st Prize: Your name permanent markered onto our prestigious NTFS Trophy and a NTFS T-Shirt for the Top 3 finishers.
We have two comps running in Dream Team and Super Coach.
SATURDAY - MAY 19
COWBOYS $1.57 v $2.40 PANTHERS 
PEN +4.5 | GAME STATS | @ Dairy Farmers Stadium, Townsville. 7:30pm Kick-Off.

NRL TWEET PLAYER OF THE YEAR AWARD VOTERS
M McLucas and M Duncan. Follow #NRLTweetPOTY for every Vote in 2012.
COMING IN
Cowboys are 6-4 and 4th, Panthers are 3-7 and 15th.
HEAD TO HEAD LAST 10
Cowboys 4 Panthers 6
The team playing at home has won the last four games in a row.
TUESDAY TEAM NEWS

NQL: M Bowen, A Graham, A Winterstein, K Linnett, K Fai-Fai Loa, M Morgan, R Thompson, A Sims, A Payne, G Hall, G Cooper, T Sims, D Johnson.
Bench: J Segeyaro, R Thorby, S Bolton, J Taumalolo, C Paterson.
[Team Changes - James Segeyaro, Scott Bolton, Jason Taumalolo and Cory Paterson return to the squad but that's mainly because Johnathan Thurston, Brent Tate, James Tamou and Matthew Scott will be playing Origin. Michael Morgan was in the squad last week and goes into five-eighth for Thurston, while the other four make up all but one spot on the bench (Ricky Thorby is the other). Glenn Hall starts at prop with Ashton Sims, while Kalifa Fai-Fai Loa comes onto the wing now that Tate is unavailable. ]

PEN: L Coote, E Uaisele, G Daniela, B Tighe, J Mansour, B Austin, T Burns, S McKendry, K Kingston, T Grant, C Newton, C Ciraldo, R Simpkins.
Bench: D Galea, D Weston, M Robinson, M Achurch.
[Team Changes - Michael Jennings goes from NSW Cup to NSW Blues... Luke Lewis also fronts up for the Blues. Ryan Simpkins moves to lock and Cameron Ciraldo returns from injury to start in the second row. Mitch Achurch comes onto the bench, with Chris Armit rumoured to have aggravated his hamstring injury against the Dragons. ]
THURSDAY GAME PREVIEW
Listen to the Podcast for a full preview, but we like the Cowboys at this stage.
TIPPING AND FANTASY LATE MAIL
SMH and Other Late Mail - Cameron Ciraldo may not travel with the team due to a hamstring strain, while Luke Walsh might make the trek to Townsville. If Walsh plays, expect Blake Austin to move to the bench and Travis Burns to five-eighth. Ricky Thorby's rib injury could keep him out and that would open up a spot for the Cory Paterson on the bench.
THE NRL TWEET'S PICK
Cowboys by 7.

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SUNDAY - MAY 20
SEA EAGLES $1.55 v $2.45 ROOSTERS 
SYD +4.5 | GAME STATS | @ Brookvale Oval, Brookvale. 2:00pm Kick-Off.

NRL TWEET PLAYER OF THE YEAR AWARD VOTERS
M Tsialis and C Buchanan. Follow #NRLTweetPOTY for every Vote in 2012.
COMING IN
Sea Eagles are 6-4 and 5th, Roosters are 5-5 and 11th.
HEAD TO HEAD LAST 10
Sea Eagles 8 Roosters 2
The Sea Eagles have won 4 of the last 5.
TUESDAY TEAM NEWS

MAN: D Whare, J Taufua, J Lyon (c), S Matai, D Williams, K Foran, D Cherry-Evans, J King (c), M Ballin, B Kite, A Watmough, D Harrison, J Galuvao.
Bench: L Foran, V Mauro, D Lussick, G Rose, N Skinner.
[Team Changes - Brett and Glenn Stewart, Jamie Buhrer and Tony Williams will play for NSW, while Daly Cherry-Evans will be QLD's 18th man (but will play for Manly on Sunday). So Dean Whare goes to fullback, Kieran Foran returns at five-eighth and the backrow now has Anthony Watmough (has an injured neck), Daniel Harrison and Joe Galuvao starting. Liam Foran is on the bench with the recalled Vic Mauro and Nick Skinner. ]

SYD: A Minichiello, T Moga, J Leilua, S Kenny-Dowall, S Perrett, B Anasta (c), D Mortimer, J Waerea-Hargreaves, J Friend, M Kennedy, A Guerra, M Aubusson, T Arona.
Bench: B Cordner, L Tasi, B Takairangi, M Masoe, J Bosden.
[Team Changes - New kid on the block Tautau Moga holds his wing spot, with Peni Tagive injured. Daniel Mortimer comes in at halfback for Mitchell Pearce who is playing for NSW, while Jack Bosden is once again 18th man. ]
THURSDAY GAME PREVIEW
Listen to the Podcast for a full preview, but we like the Sea Eagles in a close one.
TIPPING AND FANTASY LATE MAIL
SMH and Other Late Mail - David Williams is still troubled by a corked hamstring and Michael Oldfield would likely come in if the winger is forced out. Liam Foran or Nick Skinner will make the final bench. The Roosters should be 1-17.
THE NRL TWEET'S PICK
Sea Eagles by 4.

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SUNDAY - MAY 20
DRAGONS $1.90 v $1.90 RABBITOHS 
EVEN LINE | GAME STATS | @ WIN Jubilee Stadium, Kogarah. 3:00pm Kick-Off.

NRL TWEET PLAYER OF THE YEAR AWARD VOTERS
G Delaney and J Davies. Follow #NRLTweetPOTY for every Vote in 2012.
COMING IN
Dragons are 5-5 and 10th, Rabbitohs are 5-4 and 6th.
HEAD TO HEAD LAST 10
Dragons 7 Rabbitohs 3
The Dragons slide last year was confirmed when the Bunnies gave the home side a huge start and ran them down 34-24 in Round 21.
TUESDAY TEAM NEWS

STI: B Morris, D Vidot, K Stanley, M Cooper, J Nightingale, J Soward, B Hornby (c), D Hunt, M Rein, J Latimore, J Marketo, L Ah Mau, D Young.
Bench: C King, A Vea, D Gower, J de Belin, C Stanley, J Stockwell.
[Team Changes - Jamie Soward returns from a lightly corked thigh but Michael Weyman hurt his knee and the prognosis is still to come - he won't play here though. Ben Creagh and Trent Merrin are St.George-Illawarra's lone Origin reps, while Jake Marketo and Leeson Ah Mau are the new starting second rowers. Jeremy Latimore comes in at prop and Jack de Belin, Chase Stanley, Cameron King and Jack Stockwell are stocked on a well stocked bench. ]

SOU: N Merritt, A Everingham, M King, D Farrell, J Hunt, J Sutton, A Reynolds, S Geddes, I Luke, D Tyrrell, E Pettybourne, S Burgess, M Crocker.
Bench: J Clark, B Lowe, J Starling, L Burgess, C McQueen, N Peats.
[Team Changes - The Rabbitohs lose Greg Inglis and Dave Taylor to Origin so Nathan Merritt goes to fullback and Justin Hunt d├ębuts on the wing. Sam Burgess is in the starting team this week with brother Luke returning from a foot injury on the bench alongside fellow recalls Chris McQueen and Nathan Peats. ]
THURSDAY GAME PREVIEW
Listen to the Podcast for a full preview, but we like the Dragons at this stage.
TIPPING AND FANTASY LATE MAIL
SMH and Other Late Mail - The Dragons could do anything with their final team - they are incredibly unreliable putting the same team they name on Tuesday out on the weekend - Jamie Soward should play, while the whole pack minus Dan Hunt and Dean Young could be different come kick-off. Dylan Farrell didn't train on Thursday but should be ok, while Luke Burgess or Chris McQueen will get the final bench spot.
THE NRL TWEET'S PICK
Rabbitohs by 6

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MONDAY - MAY 21
BULLDOGS $1.45 v $2.75 SHARKS 
CRO +6.0 | GAME STATS | @ ANZ Stadium, Sydney. 7:00pm Kick-Off.

NRL TWEET PLAYER OF THE YEAR AWARD VOTERS
B Hoese and N Wilbow. Follow #NRLTweetPOTY for every Vote in 2012.
COMING IN
Bulldogs are 5-5 and 7th, Sharks are 7-3 and 3rd.
HEAD TO HEAD LAST 10
Bulldogs 7 Sharks 3
The Dogs have won 5 of the last 6 but Cronulla's lone win came in Round 15 last year.
TUESDAY TEAM NEWS

CBY: B Barba, L MacDougall, T Lafai, J Wright, B Goodwin, J Reynolds, K Keating, A Tolman, M Ennis (c), S Kasiano, F Pritchard, D Halatau, G Eastwood.
Bench: J Graham, D Stagg, C Payne, J Romelo.
[Team Changes - Josh Morris gets the call for NSW, so Jonathan Wright comes back into the centres after being wasted on the wing and Luke MacDougall is the new face on the wing. David Stagg has been named despite a knee injury he picked up in Round 10, while Sam Kasiano is free to play after only attracting a minor penalty for high contact on Luke O'Dwyer. Michael Ennis failed to make the NSW squad and there is still no Trent Hodkinson. ]

CRO: M Wright, I Gordon, B Pomeroy, C Best, J Williams, W Graham, J Robson, B Gibbs, I De Gois, B Ross, S Tagataese, J Bukuya, J Smith (c).
Bench: A Fifita, M Taufua, J Morris, T Frizell, J Green.
[Team Changes - Paul Gallen and Todd Carney will represent the NSW Blues, so in come Wade Graham at five-eighth and Jeremy Smith stays at lock after Gallen missed last week. Sam Tagataese starts in the second row and Isaac Gordon holds onto his wing spot after being a late inclusion for the injured Stewart Mills. Jon Green and Tyson Frizell will fight it out for the final bench spot after being included in this week's squad. ]
THURSDAY GAME PREVIEW
Listen to the Podcast for a full preview, but we like the Bulldogs at this stage but barely and could well be changing that selection by Friday.
TIPPING AND FANTASY LATE MAIL
SMH and Other Late Mail - Will the Bulldogs finally activate Trent Hodkinson for this game after a long time out with a knee injury that was supposed to only keep him out for 6 weeks? The Sharks could hand Tyson Frizell his first game of 2012, but Jon Green looms as the safer bet.
THE NRL TWEET'S PICK
Bulldogs by 2.

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BYES - Broncos, Raiders, Titans, Storm, Knights and Eels.
CLICK FOR MOST RECENT UPDATE
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This year not only do you get The NRL Tweet's Tips each week but the whole NOT The Footy Show team will have their picks listed by Thursday so you can back a smoky or a favourite by seeing who we all picked (or didn't pick). 
@NRLTWEET's 2012 TIPPING RECORD 
TOTAL AFTER 10 ROUNDS - 47/79 @ 59.5%
SPECIAL FRIED RICE involves each tipster taking a 'certainty' in a set order, with the tipster with the highest score at the end of the year literally winning a mountain of Special Fried Rice.
ROUND 11 SELECTIONS
Warriors
Cowboys
Sea Eagles
Rabbitohs
Bulldogs
LW: 2/7 | SEASON 47/79
Special Fried Rice: TBA
Season SFR: 6/10
Not on Twitter
Nic McInerney, NTFS Co-Host
Tigers
Cowboys
Sea Eagles
Dragons
Bulldogs
LW: 3/7 | SEASON 47/79
Special Fried Rice: TBA
Season SFR: 6/10
@mrpeninsula
Matt Duncan, 101.5 FM's SportsFever
Warriors
Cowboys
Sea Eagles
Rabbitohs
Bulldogs
LW: 4/7 | SEASON: 47/79
Special Fried Rice: TBA
Season SFR: 6/10

Not on Twitter
DC Chapman, NTFS Co-Host
Warriors
Cowboys
Sea Eagles
Dragons
Bulldogs
LW: 3/7 | SEASON 47/79
Special Fried Rice: SHARKS
Season SFR: 5/10

@mtsialis
Maria Tsialis, Big League Magazine
Warriors
Cowboys
Roosters
Rabbitohs
Bulldogs
LW: 3/7 | SEASON 42/792
Special Fried Rice: TBA
Season SFR: 6/10

@GT_Tips
George 'GT' Taylor, GT's Tips Expert
Tigers
Cowboys
Sea Eagles
Dragons
Bulldogs
LW: 3/7 | SEASON 42/79
Special Fried Rice: TBA
Season SFR: 6/10
Not on Twitter
Eyes, The Kid Who Sees All
Tigers
Cowboys
Roosters
Rabbitohs
Bulldogs
LW: 3/7 | SEASON 39/79
Eyes does not eat Special Fried Rice... yet.
Make sure you enter NOT The Footy Show's Tipping Competition, the outright winner walks away with an Official Steeden Match ball!
TIPS DONE, GO OUT AND ENJOY THE FOOTY!
If you want a full 2012 NRL Season Preview you'll need to pick yourself up a copy of the 2012 Rugby League Almanac for just $10.00 - where every team is analysed in depth and our Predicted Ladder and Premiership pick is published.


So while you go grab a copy, here is the short sharp and boldly premature 2012 Prediction for each NRL Club. If you want our Final Ladder - see the Almanac.

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