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Thursday, 10 May 2012

NRL 2012: Round 10 NRL Preview Tips Teams Predictions Late Mail Fantasy News Odds

NRL ROUND 10 TIPPING PREVIEW
By W D Nicolson 

A lot of people want to tell you that Melbourne's winning run comes to an end this week against the Sharks... but they are all on the good stuff, especially if Paul Gallen doesn't in fact play.

But we do like at least two genuine upsets this weekend - read on to find out which two we declared as special fried rice in Round 10.

And it looks like Tautau Moga might finally d├ębut!

For more on how we see the Weekend unfolding, check out the Podcast and Preview below.

For game-specific Late Mail every week - check back on Friday (or if there's an earlier game, earlier) for all your tipping and fantasy game needs.

NOT The Footy Show Episode 105
Round 10 Preview - Released Wednesday May 9, 2012 
Right Click Save Target As This Link if you don't have iTunes for the MP3 File.

NOT The Footy Show airs again next Wednesday night - May 9 at 8:15pm.

Subscribe to the Podcast via this link / Download mp3 version

1st Prize: NRL Match Steeden Ball. 2nd to 5th: NTFS Club Mascot T-Shirts.
NRL ROUND 10 PREVIEW - 2012
03/05 Odds are courtesy of Sportingbet Australia
For some more insight into the markets check out NOT The Footy Show's new resident tipster's site GT Tips http://www.gttips.co.uk
All Kick-Offs are LOCAL time.


FRIDAY - MAY 11
BRONCOS $2.05 v $1.81 SEA EAGLES 
BRI +1.5 | GAME STATS | @ Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane. 7pm Kick-Off.

NRL TWEET PLAYER OF THE YEAR AWARD VOTERS
N Wilbow and C Buchanan. Follow #NRLTweetPOTY for every Vote in 2012.
COMING IN
Broncos are 7-2 and 2nd, Sea Eagles are 5-4 and 6th.
HEAD TO HEAD LAST 10
Broncos 4 Sea Eagles 6.
Manly have won 6 of the last 8.
TUESDAY TEAM NEWS

BRI: J Hoffman, G Beale, J Reed, J Hodges, D Copley, C Norman, B Hunt, B Hannant, A McCullough, P Civoniceva, A Glenn, S Thaiday (c), C Parker.
Bench: L Capewell, J McGuire, M Gillett, B Te’o.
[Team Changes - Peter Wallace will miss with a badly swollen groin and Ben Hunt will deputise once more at halfback. Luke Capewell has been named as the new utlity cover on the bench. Andrew McCullough picked up an ankle injury against the Warriors but should play. Petero Civoniceva has also announced his retirement from the game at the end of the season. ]

MAN: B Stewart, J Taufua, J Lyon (c), S Matai, D Williams, L Foran, D Cherry-Evans, J King (c), M Ballin, B Kite, A Watmough, J Buhrer, G Stewart.
Bench: V Mauro, J Galuvao, D Lussick, G Rose, D Harrison, D Whare.
[Team Changes - David Williams is back on deck after a corked hammy, forcing Dean Whare to the bench. Joe Galuvao comes into the squad and there is still no Kieran Foran who is out with a dodgy hammy. ]
THURSDAY GAME PREVIEW
Listen to the Podcast for a full preview, but we like the Sea Eagles. Brisbane are a very good team but Peter Wallace has been a big reason for their form this year, Ben Hunt goes okay but Daly Cherry-Evans is playing behind a Manly pack that is aiming up again - go Manly.
TIPPING AND FANTASY LATE MAIL
SMH and Other Late Mail - Liam Foran will once again deputise for his brother at five-eighth for Manly, while Dean Whare remains on standby for David Williams who has a corked hamstring. Jamie Buhrer who moves to the bench and pushes Vic Mauro out of the 17. Brisbane could spring a surprise and play Kurt Baptiste ahead of Luke Capewell on their bench (or go with a fourth forward) but an ankle injury to Justin Hodges at training is unlikely to keep him out of the game (HODGES IS OUT! Gillett to centres). Sam Thaiday will play despite a rib complaint and Scott Anderson joins the 17 for Hodges.
THE NRL TWEET'S PICK
Sea Eagles by 7.

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NOT The Footy Show Video for Round 10 - No video this week.

In the Podcast: 

Matt Prior - Mission NOT accomplished! Hit JT harder next time!

NOT The Footy Show takes full responsibility for Prior's tent peg (allegedly) and in Episode 105 we reveal why his failure to rub out Thurston will not be tolerated by NSW fans.

Join Warrick Nicolson, Matt Duncan, Maria Tsialis and DC Chapman as they talk Petero retiring, Vossy's work on QLD Cup, Gagai's on the market, Carney v Inglis, Channel 9's disdain for the TV rights, Michael Jennings from Windsor to Origin 1, The Feedback Files and we preview Round 10 in full on NOT The Footy Show Episode 105.

We have an update on our predicted Origin teams from www.wdnicolson.com and as always we preview your team's chances in Round 10, with our panel's tips and moderately anticipated Special Fried Rice selections.

At just 61 minutes long this week - NOT The Footy Show is bite sized footy goodness.

1st Prize: Your name permanent markered onto our prestigious NTFS Trophy and a NTFS T-Shirt for the Top 3 finishers.
We have two comps running in Dream Team and Super Coach.
FRIDAY - MAY 11
BULLDOGS $1.34 v $3.35 TITANS 
GLD +9.5 | GAME STATS | @  Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane. 8:45pm Kick-Off.

NRL TWEET PLAYER OF THE YEAR AWARD VOTERS
B Hoese and M McLucas. Follow #NRLTweetPOTY for every Vote in 2012.
COMING IN
Bulldogs are 5-4 and 5th, Titans are 2-7 and 14th.
HEAD TO HEAD LAST 10
Bulldogs 5 Titans 3.
The Dogs have won the past 2 including their Round 5 clash on the Gold Coast.
TUESDAY TEAM NEWS

CBY: B Barba, J Wright, J Morris, T Lafai, B Goodwin, J Reynolds, K Keating, A Tolman, M Ennis (c), S Kasiano, F Pritchard, D Halatau, G Eastwood.
Bench: J Graham, D Stagg, C Payne, J Romelo, M Taupau.
[Team Changes - No changes for the Bulldogs - which means Trent Hodkinson is either still injured or hasn't been able to force his way past Kris Keating to get his #7 jersey back. Martin Taupau is once again, 18th man. Tim Lafai was subbed late in last week's game but the club reported no injury concerns. ]

GLD: W Zillman, K Gordon, J Idris, D Peyroux, D Mead, A Sezer, J Rankin, L Bailey (c), M Srama, N Myles, G Bird, M Minichiello, A Harrison.
Bench: M White, L Douglas, L O'Dwyer, B Thompson, P Graham.
[Team Changes - William Zillman returns at the expense of Phil Graham at fullback (Graham goes to the bench), and there is still no Scott Prince (but don't rule him out playing). Mark Minichiello starts in the second row again and Luke O'Dwyer reverts to the bench. Jordan Rankin and Aidan Sezer are retained in the halves]
THURSDAY GAME PREVIEW
Listen to the Podcast for a full preview, but we like the Bulldog simply because we can't tip the Titans. Not much else to add, other than Ben Barba could score 7 tries Friday night (let's guess 3).
TIPPING AND FANTASY LATE MAIL
SMH and Other Late Mail - Scott Prince and Beau Champion will come in for Jordan Rankin and Dominique Peyroux. Matthew White will also miss, with Brenton Lawrence favoured to come in. Phil Graham or Rankin will be 18th man. The Dogs will likely resist bringing Trent Hodkinson back until their next home game, so Kris 'The Answer' Keating will remain at halfback.
THE NRL TWEET'S PICK
Bulldogs by 10.

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SATURDAY - MAY 12
WARRIORS $1.42 v $2.95 ROOSTERS 
SYD +7.5 | GAME STATS | @ Mt Smart Stadium, Auckland. 7:30pm Kick-Off.

NRL TWEET PLAYER OF THE YEAR AWARD VOTERS
C Buchanan and J Davies. Follow #NRLTweetPOTY for every Vote in 2012.
COMING IN
Warriors are 4-5 and 11th, Roosters are 5-4 and 9th.
HEAD TO HEAD LAST 10
Warriors 6 Roosters Draw 1.
The Roosters won in Round 5 and have won two in a row but haven't won at Mt Smart since 2008.
TUESDAY TEAM NEWS

WAR: J Ropati, B Tupou, B Henry, K Hurrell, M Vatuvei, J Maloney, S Johnson, R Packer, A Mara, B Matulino, E Taylor, S Mannering (c), F Mateo.
Bench: L Brown, U Ta’ai, Sione Lousi, J Lillyman.
[Team Changes - Nathan Friend misses with a busted jaw, Alehana Mara is named in the number nine to replace him. Jacob Lillyman retains his spot on the bench after being a late replacement last week. ]

SYD: A Minichiello, P Tagive, J Leilua, S Kenny-Dowall, S Perrett, B Anasta (c), M Pearce, J Waerea-Hargreaves, J Friend, M Kennedy, A Guerra, M Aubusson, T Arona.
Bench: B Cordner, L Tasi, B Takairangi, M Masoe, J Bosden.
[Team Changes - No changes for the Roosters - who are coming off a 24-6 win over the Knights. Jack Bosden is added as 18th man for the trip to New Zealand. ]
THURSDAY GAME PREVIEW
Listen to the Podcast for a full preview, but we like the Warriors, especially if it is a typical wet cold night in Auckland in Autumn. The Roosters might have been going ok of late but those conditions won't suit the Chooks and the Warriors could really pile on the pain if they start well.
TIPPING AND FANTASY LATE MAIL
SMH and Other Late Mail - The Warriors could start with Lewis Brown at hooker and shift Alehana Mara to the bench, otherwise they should be unchanged. The Roosters are reportedly facing life without Peni Tagive with a leg injury and we might FINALLY see the arrival of Tautau Moga in the top grade. Jack Bosden will likely be 18th man, while Boyd Cordner could be a late starter at lock.
THE NRL TWEET'S PICK
Warriors by 14.

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SATURDAY - MAY 12
KNIGHTS $2.15 v $1.72 COWBOYS 
NEW +2.0 | GAME STATS | @ Hunter Stadium, Newcastle. 7:30pm Kick-Off.

NRL TWEET PLAYER OF THE YEAR AWARD VOTERS
G Delaney and M Duncan. Follow #NRLTweetPOTY for every Vote in 2012.
COMING IN
Knights are 4-5 and 10th, Cowboys are 5-4 and 4th.
HEAD TO HEAD LAST 10
Cowboys 4 Knights 6.
The Cowboys won at Hunter last season but the Knights have won 3 of the last 5.
TUESDAY TEAM NEWS

NEW: D Boyd, J McManus, J Sa’u, T Tahu, A Uate, J Mullen, T Roberts, K Snowden, M Hilder, E Tuimavave, C Houston, Z Taia, N Costigan.
Bench: R Fa’aoso, W Mason, A Cuthbertson, A McKinnon.
[Team Changes - Wes Naiqama has been dropped to NSW Cup and Joel Edwards misses a week with suspension. Junior Sa'u comes into the centres and Evarn Tuimavave returns from a corked quad at prop. Richie Fa'aoso holds his spot on the bench and is joined by Adam Cuthbertson. Alex McKinnon will likely play after suffering a head knock last week. ]

NQL: M Bowen, A Graham, B Tate, K Linnett, A Winterstein, J Thurston (c), R Thompson, M Scott (c), A Payne, J Tamou, G Cooper, T Sims, D Johnson.
Bench: J Segeyaro, R Thorby, A Sims, G Hall.
[Team Changes - Kane Linnett's return last week demoted Kalifa Fai-Fai Loa to QLD Cup and the winger is joined by Jason Taumalolo who is omitted for the return of Glenn Hall. Matt Scott's successful return from injury sees Ashton Sims on the bench once again. Johnathan Thurston should play after being cleared of a head injury. ]
THURSDAY GAME PREVIEW
Listen to the Podcast for a full preview, but we like the Knights - for two reasons. One, Wayne Bennett gets his teams up for games like these when they aren't expected to win at home and the Cowboys aren't a team you can overly trust on the road (see Round 8 v Souths). The Cowboys aren't as good as they showed last week and the Knights aren't as bad (even without Kurt Gidley) as they showed against the Roosters. If the Knights can play this game up the middle - the Cowboys might find it hard work at Newcastle.
TIPPING AND FANTASY LATE MAIL
SMH and Other Late Mail - The Knights might have a reshuffle at kick-off with Evarn Tuimavave, Alex McKinnon or Adam Cuthbertson likely to make way for rookie hooker Chris Adams on the interchange bench. You might still see Neville Costigan start at hooker and Matt Hilder either to lock or to the bench to let any of the forwards on the bench (Mason, Cuthbertson, Fa'aoso or McKinnon) start. Akuila Uate has struggled with a hip injury of late but he'll play. The Cowboys will take Scott Bolton and Michael Morgan to Newcastle and decide which one of them replaces the suspended James Segeyaro (misses one week) on the bench. Matt Scott will be fine and Johnathan Thurston should be 100% after his head got tent-pegged by Matt Prior last Friday.
THE NRL TWEET'S PICK
Knights by 4.

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SUNDAY - MAY 13
RAIDERS $1.46 v $2.80 EELS 
PAR +6.5 | GAME STATS | @ Canberra Stadium, Canberra. 2:00pm Kick-Off.

NRL TWEET PLAYER OF THE YEAR AWARD VOTERS
M Spillane and W Nicolson. Follow #NRLTweetPOTY for every Vote in 2012.
COMING IN
Raiders are 3-6 and 13th, Eels are 1-8 and 16th.
HEAD TO HEAD LAST 10
Raiders 5 Eels 5.
Canberra have won two straight but these teams have only played at Canberra once since 2007.
TUESDAY TEAM NEWS

CAN: J Dugan, B Ferguson, J Croker, J Wighton, R Robinson, J McCrone, S Williams, D Shillington (c), T Waddell, T Learoyd-Lahrs, J Papalii, J Thompson, S Fensom.
Bench: S Berrigan, J Picker, S Mataora, D Tilse, B Harrison.
[Team Changes - Shaun Berrigan is once again in the utility role on the bench with Travis Waddell starting at hooker. Jack Wighton is in the centres with Bronson Harrison unable to force his way past a bench spot despite being named to return from injury. ]

PAR: J Hayne, L Burt, R Morgan, C Blair, K Sio, C McGuire, C Sandow, T Mannah, M Keating, FF MoiMoi, N Hindmarsh (c), J Paulo, M Ryan.
Bench: T Lasalo, M Allgood, J Poore, T Tautai.
[Team Changes - Chris Sandow is back at #7, with Casey McGuire to five-eighth and Ben Roberts punted to NSW Cup. Matt Ryan goes to lock for the suspended Reni Maitua and Taniela Lasalo and Taulima Tautai join the bench. Cheyse Blair comes in at centre for the injured Willie Tonga. ]
THURSDAY GAME PREVIEW
Listen to the Podcast for a full preview, but we like the Eels for some strange reason. Look Canberra played the style they wanted to against Manly and never looked like having another gear to beat he Premiers, while Parra actually started well before imploding against the Dogs. Take a team that tries to score points vs a team that tries not to lose... and sadly that means you pick Parramatta even on the road. Canberra simply aren't very good, and granted Parra aren't much better but Jarryd Hayne and Chris Sandow will win a game by themselves sooner or later.
TIPPING AND FANTASY LATE MAIL
SMH and Other Late Mail - Bronson Harrison could miss another week, with the Raiders unchanged from last week's loss to Manly. There is a chance Shaun Berrigan could start for Travis Waddell but that seems too proactive a move for the Raiders. Cheyse Blair should return from a minor hamstring strain, while Justin Horo is believed to have trained with the team and could edge out Taulima Tautai for the final bench spot. Otherwise the Eels should be as per program.
THE NRL TWEET'S PICK
Eels by 8.

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SUNDAY - MAY 13
SHARKS $3.60 v $1.31 STORM 
CRO +9.5 | GAME STATS | @ Toyota Stadium, Cronulla. 3:00pm Kick-Off.

NRL TWEET PLAYER OF THE YEAR AWARD VOTERS
M Tsialis and M Vickers. Follow #NRLTweetPOTY for every Vote in 2012.
COMING IN
Sharks are 6-3 and 3rd, Storm are 9-0 and 1st.
HEAD TO HEAD LAST 10
Sharks 3 Storm 7.
Melbourne are on a 5 match winning streak dating back to 2008.
TUESDAY TEAM NEWS

CRO: M Wright, S Mills, B Pomeroy, C Best, J Williams, T Carney, J Robson, B Gibbs, I De Gois, B Ross, J Smith, J Bukuya, P Gallen (c).
Bench: A Fifita, W Graham, J Morris, S Tagataese, M Taufua.
[Team Changes - Same side for the Sharks but given they played last night - despite Stewart Mills and Paul Gallen picking up injuries. But as always don't be surprised to see changes later in the week. ]

MEL: B Slater, M Duffie, D Nielsen, W Chambers, J O'Neill, G Widdop, C Cronk, J Bromwich, C Smith (c), B Norrie, K Proctor, R Hoffman, T Lowrie.
Bench: R Hinchcliffe, R Kostjasyn, S Vave, J Ryles, A Quinn, J Lowe.
[Team Changes - Rory Kostjasyn is the only addition to the squad that beat the Panthers. In a positional switch - Jesse Bromwich starts for Jason Ryles, who drops back to the bench ]
THURSDAY GAME PREVIEW
Listen to the Podcast for a full preview, but we like the Storm. Yes having the Sharks cost us a perfect round last week is a factor here but it's a legitimate one. Souths played well but Cronulla were untidy and Paul Gallen is no certainty to play with Origin on the horizon and the Storm are just lethal when a team isn't on their game. You beat Melbourne with your best, Cronulla weren't at that level last week.
TIPPING AND FANTASY LATE MAIL
SMH and Other Late Mail - Paul Gallen is 50/50 but we won't know til Sunday. As a result - Fantasy players - don't make him captain if you don't have a vice captain option. Wade Graham would come into the second row and Jeremy Smith would go to lock if Gallen missed. Sam Tagataese would join the bench. Stewart Mills is set to miss with a hamstring tear, with Nathan Stapleton or Isaac Gordon to replace him.The Storm are unlikely to rest any of their starts, but Sika Manu could be a late inclusion on the bench.
THE NRL TWEET'S PICK
Storm by 10.

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MONDAY - MAY 14
PANTHERS $3.50 v $1.32 DRAGONS 
PEN +10.0 | GAME STATS | @ Centrebet Stadium, Penrith. 7:00pm Kick-Off.

NRL TWEET PLAYER OF THE YEAR AWARD VOTERS
W Nicolson and B Hoese. Follow #NRLTweetPOTY for every Vote in 2012.
COMING IN
Panthers are 2-7 and 15th, Dragons are 5-4 and 8th.
HEAD TO HEAD LAST 10
Panthers 2 Dragons 8.
The Dragons have won 7 of the last 8 games.
TUESDAY TEAM NEWS

PEN: L Coote, E Uaisele, G Daniela, B Tighe, J Mansour, B Austin, T Burns, S McKendry, K Kingston, T Grant, C Ciraldo, C Newton, L Lewis (c).
Bench: R Simpkins, D Galea, D Weston, M Robinson, C Armit.
[Team Changes - Michael Jennings has been sensationally dropped to the NSW Cup, Brad Tighe comes in for him and Etu Uaisele and Josh Mansour hold their wing spots. Travis Burns has been named at halfback but did an ankle at training, so don't be surprised if Harry Siejka gets a run from the Toyota Cup at halfback. ]

STI: B Morris, D Vidot, K Stanley, M Cooper, J Nightingale, J Soward, B Hornby (c), D Hunt, M Rein, M Weyman, T Merrin, B Creagh, D Young.
Bench: N Fien, J Latimore, D Gower, J de Belin, A Vea, J Marketo.
[Team Changes - Matt Prior will spend 5-8 weeks on the sideline for tent-pegging Thurston, so Trent Merrin gets a start in the second row and Dean Young returns from injury at lock. Jack de Belin goes back to a bench with new faces Atelea Vea, David Gower and Jake Marketo. Ben Hornby's ribs are reportedly ok. ]
THURSDAY GAME PREVIEW
Listen to the Podcast for a full preview, but we like the Dragons because like the Titans earlier - who can pick the Panthers. Yes we did pick the Eels but they were playing the Raiders. The Dragons will be without Matt 'The Assassin' Prior but they should cover his loss easily and the Panthers are playing without confidence and a fit roster. That being said - the Panthers could spring an upset or at least push the Dragons who haven't been much good of late.
TIPPING AND FANTASY LATE MAIL
SMH and Other Late Mail - Michael Jennings could still play if Ricky Stuart has any sway with Ivan Cleary, while Travis Burns or Blake Austin could make way (injured or dropped) for Harry Siejka in the Penrith halves. Chris Armit could come in on the bench for Matt Robinson if Penrith decide to play an extra front rower. The Dragons get another big rest via the Channel 9 schedule and that means they should be fully fit - with Dean Young coming back from his rest against the Cowboys for the suspended Matt Prior and Vea and Marketo likely to miss out. PS... whispers that Jamie Soward didn't train Friday... shhh.
THE NRL TWEET'S PICK
Dragons by 10.

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This year not only do you get The NRL Tweet's Tips each week but the whole NOT The Footy Show team will have their picks listed by Thursday so you can back a smoky or a favourite by seeing who we all picked (or didn't pick). 
@NRLTWEET's 2012 TIPPING RECORD 
TOTAL AFTER 9 ROUNDS - 45/72 @ 62.5%
SPECIAL FRIED RICE involves each tipster taking a 'certainty' in a set order, with the tipster with the highest score at the end of the year literally winning a mountain of Special Fried Rice.
ROUND 10 SELECTIONS
Sea Eagles
Bulldogs
Warriors
Knights
Eels
Storm
Dragons
LW: 7/8 | SEASON 45/72
Special Fried Rice: STORM
Season SFR: 6/9
Not on Twitter
Nic McInerney, NTFS Co-Host
Broncos
Bulldogs
Warriors
Cowboys
Raiders
Storm
Dragons
LW: 3/8 | SEASON 44/72
Special Fried Rice: BRONCOS
Season SFR: 6/9
@mrpeninsula
Matt Duncan, 101.5 FM's SportsFever
Broncos
Bulldogs
Warriors
Cowboys
Raiders
Sharks
Dragons
LW: 6/8 | SEASON: 43/72
Special Fried Rice: DRAGONS
Season SFR: 6/9

Not on Twitter
DC Chapman, NTFS Co-Host
Broncos
Bulldogs
Warriors
Cowboys
Eels
Sharks
Dragons
LW: 5/8 | SEASON 44/72
Special Fried Rice: SHARKS
Season SFR: 4/9

@mtsialis
Maria Tsialis, Big League Magazine
Broncos
Bulldogs
Warriors
Cowboys
Eels
Storm
Panthers
LW: 5/8 | SEASON 39/72
Special Fried Rice: BULLDOGS
Season SFR: 6/9

@GT_Tips
George 'GT' Taylor, GT's Tips Expert
Broncos
Bulldogs
Warriors
Cowboys
Raiders
Storm
Dragons
LW: 6/8 | SEASON 39/72
Special Fried Rice: WARRIORS
Season SFR: 5/9
Not on Twitter
Eyes, The Kid Who Sees All
Sea Eagles
Bulldogs
Roosters
Cowboys
Raiders
Storm
Dragons
LW: 6/8 | SEASON 36/72
Eyes does not eat Special Fried Rice... yet.
Make sure you enter NOT The Footy Show's Tipping Competition, the outright winner walks away with an Official Steeden Match ball!
TIPS DONE, GO OUT AND ENJOY THE FOOTY!
If you want a full 2012 NRL Season Preview you'll need to pick yourself up a copy of the 2012 Rugby League Almanac for just $10.00 - where every team is analysed in depth and our Predicted Ladder and Premiership pick is published.


So while you go grab a copy, here is the short sharp and boldly premature 2012 Prediction for each NRL Club. If you want our Final Ladder - see the Almanac.

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