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Friday, 25 May 2012

NRL 2012: Round 12 NRL Preview Tips Teams Predictions Late Mail Podcast Odds

NRL ROUND 12 TIPPING PREVIEW
By W D Nicolson 

So much for Queensland winning fairly huh?

Ok so that was just some bait to see if anyone would bite but it was a shame to see a quality Origin game overshadowed by a video ref blunder that just seemed to reinvent the rule book on the run... anyhoo - don't forget the facts - QLD led by 2 at the time of the Inglis 'try'. There's plenty to talk about coming out of QLD's 18-10 win in Origin 1 so grab out podcast below and have a listen.

As for Round 12 - seven games on the schedule and a cracker on Friday night with the table topping Storm and Broncos going at each other in 'sunny' Melbourne. Thanks for visiting www.wdnicolson.com for your previews - our apologies it is on Friday this week but Origin threw out our timeline for production as we're sure you understand.

For more on how we see the Weekend unfolding, check out the Podcast and Preview below.

For game-specific Late Mail every week - check back on Friday (or if there's an earlier game, earlier) for all your tipping and fantasy game needs.

NOT The Footy Show Episode 108
Round 12 NRL Preview and Origin 1 Recap - Released Thursday May 24, 2012 
Right Click Save Target As This Link if you don't have iTunes for the MP3 File.

NOT The Footy Show will release another Podcast next Wednesday night - May 31 with our Round 13 Preview Show.

Subscribe to the Podcast via this link / Download mp3 version

1st Prize: NRL Match Steeden Ball. 2nd to 5th: NTFS Club Mascot T-Shirts.
NRL ROUND 12 PREVIEW - 2012
25/05 Odds are courtesy of Sportingbet Australia
For some more insight into the markets check out NOT The Footy Show's new resident tipster's site GT Tips http://www.gttips.co.uk
All Kick-Offs are LOCAL time.


FRIDAY - MAY 25
STORM $1.45 v $2.85 BRONCOS 
BRI +6.5 | GAME STATS | @ AAMI Park, Melbourne. 7:45pm Kick-Off.

NRL TWEET PLAYER OF THE YEAR AWARD VOTERS
M Duncan and M Vickers. Follow #NRLTweetPOTY for every Vote in 2012.
COMING IN
TBA
HEAD TO HEAD LAST 10
TBA
TUESDAY TEAM NEWS

MEL: B Slater, M Duffie, D Nielsen, W Chambers, J O’Neill, G Widdop, C Cronk, J Bromwich, C Smith (c), J Ryles, B Norrie, R Hinchcliffe, T Lowrie.
Bench: A Quinn, R Kostjasyn, M Greenfield, J Lowe, L Kelly, M Blair, K Bromwich.
[Team Changes - The Storm name Smith, Slater and Cronk, while Ryan Hoffman misses with a calf strain. As a result Bryan Norrie starts in the second row, while Michael Greenfield, Luke Kelly, Maurice Blair and Kenny Bromwich are on an extended bench to cover the Origin stars. ]

BRI: J Hoffman, G Beale, J Reed, M Gillett, D Copley, C Norman, P Wallace, S Anderson, A McCullough, J McGuire, A Glenn, B Te’o, C Parker (c).
Bench: B Hunt, D Hala, D Lui, M Dodds.
[Team Changes - The Broncos will once again adopt their 'start in Origin = don't backup' policy with Sam Thaiday, Justin Hodges, Ben Hannant and Petero Civoniceva not named to play two days after Origin 1. But Matt Gillett is in the centres after only being a reserve for Queensland. Scott Anderson and Josh McGuire start at prop, while Ben Te'o comes in for Thaiday in the second row. David Hala, Dunamis Lui and Mitchell Dodds will travel to Melbourne but don't be shocked if one or two of the Queensland stars actually backup. ]
THURSDAY GAME PREVIEW
Listen to the Podcast for a full preview, but we like the Storm in a game that lacks some star power given Brisbane decided to rest Thaiday, Civoniceva and Hodges. If Storm hold Brisbane early, the Broncos bench might be somewhat of a let-down (not that the storm bench is anything special mind you).
TIPPING AND FANTASY LATE MAIL
SMH and Other Late Mail - The Storm Big 3 will all play, although there is talk Cameron Smith comes off the bench and Ryan Hinchcliffe goes to hooker. That only makes sense if Sika Manu makes his return from an ankle injury as no player on the Storm bench screams 'start me' in the backrow outside of maybe Michael Greenfield. The Broncos rest Sam Thaiday, Petero Civoniceva and Justin Hodges, and backup Ben Hannant and Matt Gillett. Mitchell Dodds or Dunamis Lui will make way for Hannant's return, while Scott Anderson will move to the bench.
THE NRL TWEET'S PICK
STORM by 6.

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NOT The Footy Show Video is taking a short hiatus - we will be back just not every week.
In the Podcast: 

Pity about Hampstead... Origin 1 ruined by worst decision in State of Origin history but remember QLD led by 2 points at the time.

Get the entire Origin 1 low-down - remember bias is not our business - in NOT The Footy Show Episode 108 with Warrick Nicolson, DC Chapman, Maria Tsialis and the victorious QLDer Matthew Duncan.

Plus George Taylor joins us to go through all the odds and predictions for Round 12 - always a popular segment. And then there's Eyes dropping in for his hit and miss tips.

Also in Episode 108 we delve into the Feedback Files - so if you want to give us some feedback on Twitter, Facebook or iTunes - feel free tell us why the heck you listen to NOT The Footy Show?

NOT The Footy Show is good and terrible most weeks - take a chance that it's the former this episode which is just 78 minutes long.

1st Prize: Your name permanent markered onto our prestigious NTFS Trophy and a NTFS T-Shirt for the Top 3 finishers.
We have two comps running in Dream Team and Super Coach.
FRIDAY - MAY 25
RABBITOHS $1.25 v $4.15 RAIDERS 
CAN +11.5 | GAME STATS | @ ANZ Stadium, Homebush. 7:45pm Kick-Off.

NRL TWEET PLAYER OF THE YEAR AWARD VOTERS
W Nicolson and B Hoese. Follow #NRLTweetPOTY for every Vote in 2012.
COMING IN
TBA
HEAD TO HEAD LAST 10
TBA
TUESDAY TEAM NEWS

SOU: N Merritt, A Everingham, M King, D Farrell, J Hunt, J Sutton, A Reynolds, S Geddes, I Luke, D Tyrrell, E Pettybourne, S Burgess, M Crocker.
Bench: B Lowe, L Burgess, J Starling, J Clark, D Taylor, G Inglis, C McQueen.
[Team Changes - The Bunnies name Dave Taylor and Greg Inglis but only on the bench with the pair playing Origin on Wednesday. If they do play, expect Justin Hunt and one of Josh Starling or Jason Clark to miss out. ]

CAN: R Robinson, E Lee, J Croker, J Thompson, J Wighton, J McCrone, S Williams, D Shillington, T Waddell, T Learoyd-Lahrs, J Papalii, B Harrison, S Fensom.
Bench: S Berrigan, J Picker, S Mataora, D Tilse, D Pelo, M Nicholls.
[Team Changes - Big changes in Canberra with Blake Ferguson and Josh Dugan stood down after drinking while injured, the club hands a debut to Edrick 'The Giant' Lee and Reece Robinson goes to fullback. Joel Thompson shifts to the centres, while Bronson Harrison starts in the second row and Jack Wighton goes to the wing. Josh Papalii is in doubt with an arm injury, with Dimitri Pelo and Mark Nicholls on standby. ]
THURSDAY GAME PREVIEW
Listen to the Podcast for a full preview, but we like the Rabbitohs... but not by a million. Canberra have made some tough calls and will give this a crack but the touch in class the Rabbits have will get them the win.
TIPPING AND FANTASY LATE MAIL
SMH and Other Late Mail - Greg Inglis and Dave Taylor will backup, Nathan Merritt shifts to the wing and Taylor might start on the bench. Justin Hunt goes to NSW Cup, while Chris McQueen and Josh Starling will also likely miss out to accommodate Taylor. David Shillington will play, while Josh Papalii's arm injury won't keep him out. Watch out for Edrick 'The Giant' Lee - this kid is a demon in the air.
THE NRL TWEET'S PICK
Rabbitohs by 10.
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SATURDAY - MAY 26
KNIGHTS $1.55 v $2.50 TITANS 
GLD +4.5 | GAME STATS | @ Hunter Stadium, Newcastle. 5:30pm Kick-Off.

NRL TWEET PLAYER OF THE YEAR AWARD VOTERS
C Buchanan and M McLucas. Follow #NRLTweetPOTY for every Vote in 2012.
COMING IN
TBA
HEAD TO HEAD LAST 10
TBA
TUESDAY TEAM NEWS

NEW: D Boyd, J McManus, J Sa’u, T Tahu, A Uate, J Mullen, T Roberts, K Snowden, D Buderus (c), W Mason, C Houston, Z Taia, N Costigan.
Bench: M Hilder, J Edwards, A Cuthbertson, A McKinnon.
[Team Changes - Darius Boyd and Akuila Uate have been named to backup from Origin 1, while Danny Buderus returns from injury to captain the side at hooker. Willie Mason starts at prop with Evarn Tuimavave making way and Joel Edwards coming back from suspension for Chris Adams. ]

GLD: W Zillman, K Gordon, J Idris, B Champion, D Mead, A Sezer, J Rankin, L Bailey (c), M Srama, N Myles, G Bird, M Minichiello, A Harrison.
Bench: L Douglas, B Lawrence, B Ridge, L O’Dwyer, M White.
[Team Changes - Scott Prince misses with an ankle injury with Jordan Rankin in at halfback, while Beau Champion will play after the bye week helped his back/hamstring injury. Ben Ridge and Matt White are promoted to the bench as cover for rep stars Nate Myles, Greg Bird and Ashley Harrison]
THURSDAY GAME PREVIEW
Listen to the Podcast for a full preview, but we like the Knights because we would feel dirty tipping the Titans.
TIPPING AND FANTASY LATE MAIL
SMH and Other Late Mail - Akuila Uate is in the most doubt of all the Origin players involved in this fixture after his head knock in Game 1. The Knights have cleared him but if he's a late withdrawal expect Wes Naiqama to come in. Danny Buderus will return, while Adam Cuthbertson and Alex McKinnon should shrug off minor knocks to play. Darius Boyd will play, while Ashley Harrison, Greg Bird and Nate Myles should be okay for the Titans. The big in could be Scott Prince for the Titans - who is set to play despite an ankle sprain, with Jordan Rankin making way.
THE NRL TWEET'S PICK
Knights by 8.

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SATURDAY - MAY 26
DRAGONS $1.42 v $2.95 EELS 
PAR +7.5 | GAME STATS | @ WIN Jubilee Stadium, Kogarah. 7:30pm Kick-Off.

NRL TWEET PLAYER OF THE YEAR AWARD VOTERS
G Delaney and M Tsialis. Follow #NRLTweetPOTY for every Vote in 2012.
COMING IN
TBA
HEAD TO HEAD LAST 10
TBA
TUESDAY TEAM NEWS

STI: B Morris, D Vidot, K Stanley, M Cooper, J Nightingale, J Soward, B Hornby (c), D Hunt, M Rein, J Latimore, B Scott, B Creagh, D Young.
Bench: C King, L Ah Mau, T Merrin, J de Belin, A Vea, D Gower, C Stanley, J Marketo.
[Team Changes - Spare a thought for Jake Marketo who played every minute in the second row for the Dragons last week and is now the last named reserve on a eight man bench. Beau Scott returns from an elbow injury and Ben Creagh and Trent Merrin have been named to backup from Origin 1. The final bench could be anything - especially given the Dragons love to throw a curve ball at game time and odds are they'll pick a player not even included in their 21 man squad. ]

PAR: J Hayne, L Burt, R Morgan, C Blair, K Sio, C McGuire, C Sandow, T Mannah, M Keating, J Poore, N Hindmarsh (c), M Ryan, R Maitua.
Bench: J Paulo, FF MoiMoi, M Allgood, T Lasalo, T Tautai.
[Team Changes - Still no Willie Tonga or Ben Roberts, while Reni Maitua returns at lock from suspension. Justin Poore's recent form sees him start, while Matt Ryan holds a spot in the starting team with Joseph Paulo on the bench. Taniela Lasalo or Taulima Tautai will make the final cut. Jarryd Hayne has been named to backup from Origin 1. ]
THURSDAY GAME PREVIEW
Listen to the Podcast for a full preview, but we like the Dragons but the Eels - if they decide to tackle - could really push the Dragons even at Kogarah.
TIPPING AND FANTASY LATE MAIL
SMH and Other Late Mail - Jarryd Hayne will backup for Parramatta and Ben Creagh and Trent Merrin should be fine as well for the Dragons. Beau Scott is expected to play, while Brett Morris is still in some doubt with ankle and hamstring injuries. The Dragons will likely cut four of Leeson Ah Mau, Jack de Belin, Atelea Vea, David Gower, Chase Stanley and Jake Marketo from their bench. Parramatta will choose between Taniela Lasalo and Taulima Tautai for their final bench spot.
THE NRL TWEET'S PICK
Dragons by 7.

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SUNDAY - MAY 27
PANTHERS $3.05 v $1.40 SEA EAGLES 
PEN +7.5 | GAME STATS | @ Centrebet Stadium, Penrith. 2:00pm Kick-Off.

NRL TWEET PLAYER OF THE YEAR AWARD VOTERS
W Nicolson and J Davies. Follow #NRLTweetPOTY for every Vote in 2012.
COMING IN
TBA
HEAD TO HEAD LAST 10
TBA
TUESDAY TEAM NEWS

PEN: L Coote, E Uaisele, G Daniela, B Tighe, J Mansour, B Austin, L Walsh, S McKendry, K Kingston, T Grant, C Newton, C Ciraldo, L Lewis (c).
Bench: R Simpkins, N Plum, D Weston, T Burns, D Galea.
[Team Changes - No Michael Jennings - he could lineup for Windsor if Penrith decide he is able to backup from Origin 1. Travis Burns stays on the bench with Luke Walsh and Blake Austin the preferred starting halves, while Chris Armit makes way for the imminent return of skipper Luke Lewis. Nigel Plum is also in the lineup for the first time this season after a shoulder injury robbed him of the first half of the season. ]

MAN: B Stewart, D Whare, J Lyon (c), S Matai, J Taufua, K Foran, D Cherry-Evans, J King (c), M Ballin, B Kite, A Watmough, T Williams, G Stewart.
Bench: J Buhrer, J Galuvao, D Lussick, G Rose, V Mauro, D Harrison, L Foran.
[Team Changes - Strong looking Manly team although their four rep stars - Stewarts, Williams and Buhrer (... Buhrer?) will have to be passed fit to backup from Origin 1, while Kieran Foran is in serious doubt with an ankle injury. Liam Foran would once again come in if his brother can't play. There is a seven man Manly bench - basically to cover any potential injuries to their Origin players. David Williams is still not right (hamstring), so Dean Whare holds a spot in the 17. ]
THURSDAY GAME PREVIEW
Listen to the Podcast for a full preview, but we like the Sea Eagles but at home after some improved performances - Penrith might stick in this for a while.
TIPPING AND FANTASY LATE MAIL
SMH and Other Late Mail - Tony Williams is out with a back injury, so expect Joe Galuvao or Vic Mauro to start and Jamie Buhrer will remain on the bench. Kieran Foran will NOT play due to an ankle injury, with Liam Foran once again set to replace him. Michael Jennings misses through suspension, while Luke Lewis is no certainty with a shoulder injury. Nigel Plum should return, while Danny Galea is on standby for Lewis. There is also a suggestion that Blake Austin could be Windsor bound this weekend, with Travis Burns starting at five-eighth.
THE NRL TWEET'S PICK
Sea Eagles by 8.

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SUNDAY - MAY 27
TIGERS $1.60 v $2.40 COWBOYS 
NQL +4.0 | GAME STATS | @ Campbelltown Stadum Campbelltown. 3:00pm Kick-Off.

NRL TWEET PLAYER OF THE YEAR AWARD VOTERS
M Spillane and B Hoese. Follow #NRLTweetPOTY for every Vote in 2012.
COMING IN
TBA
HEAD TO HEAD LAST 10
TBA
TUESDAY TEAM NEWS

WTG: T Moltzen, M Utai, B Ryan, C Lawrence, L Tuqiri, B Ayshford, B Marshall, A Woods, R Farah (c), K Galloway, A Blair, L Fulton, C Heighington.
Bench: B Murdoch-Masila, C Sironen, M Bell, T Humble, J Reddy.
[Team Changes - Mass changes for the Tigers. Curtis Sironen might make his NRL debut from the bench, while Matt Utai starts on the wing, Beau Ryan goes to the centres, Blake Ayshford swaps with Chris Lawrence and goes to five-eighth, Joel Reddy is on standby on the bench for Lawrence's hamstring, Robbie Farah backs up from Origin 1, Chris Heighington returns, Matt Bell and Tom Humble go to the bench, Pat Politoni is omitted and Ray Cashmere misses with a calf strain. Now take a breath... ]

NQL: M Bowen, A Graham, B Tate, K Linnett, A Winterstein, J Thurston (c), R Thompson, M Scott (c), A Payne, J Tamou, G Cooper, G Hall, D Johnson.
Bench: J Segeyaro, R Thorby, A Sims, S Bolton, J Taumalolo, C Paterson.
[Team Changes - The big four of Thurston, Scott, Tamou and Tate have been named to backup from Origin 1. That means Antonio Winterstein moves to the wing and displaces Kalifa Fai-Fai Loa, while Glenn Hall goes to the second row after the ankle injury to Tariq Sims that will rule the young second rower out for the season. Fai-Fai Loa, Scott Bolton and Cory Paterson will be the travelling cover for the Origin quartet, while Michael Morgan may also travel as cover for Thurston. ]
THURSDAY GAME PREVIEW
Listen to the Podcast for a full preview, but we like the Tigers in a game that could be very high scoring if the weather clears by Sunday.
TIPPING AND FANTASY LATE MAIL
SMH and Other Late Mail - The Cowboys should have Johnathan Thurston, James Tamou and Brent Tate all backup, while Matt Scott's head cut shouldn't keep him out - but a resting ploy by Neil Henry might. Beware with Scott especially. As a result Jason Taumalolo would almost definitely get a run and so could Scott Bolton if Ricky Thorby is omitted. The Tigers will get Robbie Farah back from Origin, while Chris Lawrence will be a game time decision with a hamstring strain. Joel Reddy would come into the starting lineup if Lawrence misses. Ben Murdoch-Masila's quad is a concern and Curtis Sironen should make his debut.
THE NRL TWEET'S PICK
Tigers by 4.

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MONDAY - MAY 28
ROOSTERS $2.30 v $1.65 BULLDOGS 
SYD +3.5 | GAME STATS | @ Allianz Stadium, Sydney. 7:00pm Kick-Off.

NRL TWEET PLAYER OF THE YEAR AWARD VOTERS
W Nicolson and N Wilbow. Follow #NRLTweetPOTY for every Vote in 2012.
COMING IN
TBA
HEAD TO HEAD LAST 10
TBA
TUESDAY TEAM NEWS

SYD: A Minichiello, P Tagive, J Leilua, T Moga, S Perrett, B Anasta (c), M Pearce, J Waerea-Hargreaves, J Friend, M Kennedy, A Guerra, M Aubusson, B Cordner.
Bench: L Tasi, B Takairangi, M Masoe, D Mortimer, T Arona.
[Team Changes - No Shaun Kenny-Dowall due to a back injury but Mitchell Pearce comes in for Daniel Mortimer at halfback should be be fit after Origin 1. Mortimer goes to the bench. Peni Tagive's is again on the wing after his early return from injury last week. ]

CBY: B Barba, L MacDougall, J Morris, J Wright, T Lafai, J Reynolds, K Keating, A Tolman, M Ennis (c), S Kasiano, F Pritchard, D Halatau, G Eastwood.
Bench: J Graham, D Stagg, C Payne, T Hodkinson, J Romelo.
[Team Changes - Luke MacDougall has been named but last we heard he had a dislocated elbow so he's a million to one. Bryson Goodwin has a bruised spleen and has been replaced by Tim Lafai who shifts from the centres to make room for Josh Morris who returns from Origin 1. Trent Hodkinson is once again on the bench after making his injury return against the Sharks and Joel Romelo is 18th man. ]
THURSDAY GAME PREVIEW
Listen to the Podcast for a full preview, but we like the Bulldogs because they have Benny Barba and the Roosters don't. Don't see much between these teams, don't overly rate either of them.
TIPPING AND FANTASY LATE MAIL
SMH and Other Late Mail - Trent Hodkinson could start for Kris Keating, with the latter moving to the bench and Joel Romelo missing out again. Krisnan Inu should debut for his new club on the wing for the injured Luke MacDougall, while Josh Morris and Mitchell Pearce should backup from Origin given their long break from Game 1. The Roosters will make a decision between Arona, Masoe and Mortimer for their final two bench spots.
THE NRL TWEET'S PICK
Bulldogs by 4.

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BYES - Sharks and Warriors.
CLICK FOR MOST RECENT UPDATE
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This year not only do you get The NRL Tweet's Tips each week but the whole NOT The Footy Show team will have their picks listed by Thursday so you can back a smoky or a favourite by seeing who we all picked (or didn't pick). 
@NRLTWEET's 2012 TIPPING RECORD 
TOTAL AFTER 11 ROUNDS - 51/84 @ 60.7%
SPECIAL FRIED RICE involves each tipster taking a 'certainty' in a set order, with the tipster with the highest score at the end of the year literally winning a mountain of Special Fried Rice.
Origin does not count in the panel tips, but DOES for NRL.com competition
ROUND 12 SELECTIONS
Storm
Rabbitohs
Knights
Dragons
Sea Eagles
Tigers
Bulldogs
LW: 4/5 | SEASON 51/84
Special Fried Rice: SEA EAGLES
Season SFR: 7/11
Not on Twitter
Nic McInerney, NTFS Co-Host
Storm
Rabbitohs
Knights
Dragons
Sea Eagles
Tigers
Bulldogs
LW: 4/5 | SEASON 51/84
Special Fried Rice: BULLDOGS
Season SFR: 7/11
@mrpeninsula
Matt Duncan, 101.5 FM's SportsFever
Broncos
Rabbitohs
Knights
Dragons
Sea Eagles
Cowboys
Roosters
LW: 4/5 | SEASON: 51/84
Special Fried Rice: DRAGONS
Season SFR: 6/11

Not on Twitter
DC Chapman, NTFS Co-Host
Storm
Rabbitohs
Knights
Dragons
Sea Eagles
Cowboys
Bulldogs
LW: 3/5 | SEASON 50/84
Special Fried Rice: RABBITOHS
Season SFR: 6/11

@mtsialis
Maria Tsialis, Big League Magazine
Storm
Rabbitohs
Titans
Dragons
Sea Eagles
Cowboys
Bulldogs
LW: 3/5 | SEASON 45/84
Special Fried Rice: STORM
Season SFR: 7/11

@GT_Tips
George 'GT' Taylor, GT's Tips Expert
Storm
Rabbitohs
Knights
Dragons
Sea Eagles
Tigers
Bulldogs
LW: 4/5 | SEASON 46/84
Special Fried Rice: KNIGHTS
Season SFR: 7/11
Not on Twitter
Eyes, The Kid Who Sees All
Storm
Raiders
Knights
Eels
Panthers
Tigers
Bulldogs
LW: 4/5 | SEASON 43/84
Eyes does not eat Special Fried Rice... yet.
Make sure you enter NOT The Footy Show's Tipping Competition, the outright winner walks away with an Official Steeden Match ball!
TIPS DONE, GO OUT AND ENJOY THE FOOTY!
If you want a full 2012 NRL Season Preview you'll need to pick yourself up a copy of the 2012 Rugby League Almanac for just $10.00 - where every team is analysed in depth and our Predicted Ladder and Premiership pick is published.


So while you go grab a copy, here is the short sharp and boldly premature 2012 Prediction for each NRL Club. If you want our Final Ladder - see the Almanac.

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