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Wednesday, 25 April 2012

NRL 2012: Round 8 NRL Preview Tips Teams Predictions Late Mail Fantasy News Odds

NRL ROUND 8 TIPPING PREVIEW
By W D Nicolson 

The club footy returns this week with two cracking games on ANZAC Day Wednesday and then the rest of the matches covering the regular Friday-Monday schedule.

The Storm try for eight straight wins to open the season and the Tigers and Titans look to make it two straight in slightly less impressive win streaks.

For more on how we see the Weekend unfolding, check out the Podcast and Preview below.

For game-specific Late Mail every week - check back on Friday (or if there's an earlier game, earlier) for all your tipping and fantasy game needs.

Subscribe to the Podcast via this link / Download mp3 version


NOT The Footy Show Episode 103
- Round 8 Preview 2012 - Released Monday April 23, 2012

Right Click Save Target As This Link if you don't have iTunes for the MP3 File.
NOT The Footy Show's annual State of Origin Prediction Special will air next Wednesday May 2nd at 8:15pm.

1st Prize: NRL Match Steeden Ball. 2nd to 5th: NTFS Club Mascot T-Shirts.
NRL ROUND 8 PREVIEW - 2012
25/04 Odds are courtesy of Sportingbet Australia
For some more insight into the markets check out NOT The Footy Show's new resident tipster's site GT Tips http://www.gttips.co.uk
All Kick-Offs are LOCAL time.


WEDNESDAY - APRIL 25
DRAGONS $1.46 v $2.80 ROOSTERS 
SYD +6.5 | GAME STATS | @ Allianz Stadium, Sydney. 4:00pm Kick-Off.

NRL TWEET PLAYER OF THE YEAR VOTERS - REP PLAYER OF THE YEAR
W Nicolson and M Spillane. Follow #NRLTweetPOTY for every Vote in 2012.
COMING IN
Dragons are 4-3 and 6th, Roosters are 4-3 and 7th.
HEAD TO HEAD LAST 10
Dragons 7 Roosters 3
The Roosters won their Round 23 game last year 20-12 but the Dragons have had a stranglehold over this game recently - winning 6 straight from 2009.
TUESDAY TEAM NEWS

STI: B Morris, D Vidot, K Stanley, M Cooper, J Nightingale, J Soward, B Hornby (c), D Hunt, N Fien, M Weyman, B Scott, B Creagh, D Young.
Bench: M Prior, J Latimore, T Merrin, J de Belin, J Miller, C Stanley, J Marketo.
[Team Changes -  A few changes for the Dragons - Matt Cooper comes back from an ankle injury and Nathan Fien replaces Mitch Rein at hooker. Josh Miller, Chase Stanley and Jake Marketo are named on an extended bench but are unlikely to play. ]

SYD: A Minichiello, P Tagive, J Leilua, S Kenny-Dowall, S Perrett, B Anasta (c), M Pearce, J Waerea-Hargreaves, J Friend, M Kennedy, A Guerra, M Aubusson, T Arona.
Bench: B Takairangi, L Tasi, M Masoe, J Bosden.
[Team Changes - Tautau Moga is IN... NSW Cup. Peni Tagive was unimpressive last week on the flank but Moga could still be a late inclusion... this seems like the kind of game Brian Smith has him primed for. Aidan Guerra starts for the injured Boyd Cordner, while Mose Masoe is the new face on the bench. ]
THURSDAY GAME PREVIEW
Listen to the Podcast for a full preview, but we like the Dragons here.
There's not a lot that has impressed us about the Roosters despite their 4 wins and the Dragons usually get up for this ANZAC Day game. If the Roosters hand the Dragons an early lead - this one will be over by halftime.
TIPPING AND FANTASY LATE MAIL
SMH and Other Late Mail - Kyle Stanley drops out, Matt Prior to the centres and Mitch Rein will play for hooker and Nathan Fien goes to the bench in place of Stanley and Josh Miller comes in for Jack de Belin.
THE NRL TWEET'S PICK
Dragons by 13.

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NOT The Footy Show Video - No Video Tipping this week.

In the Podcast:


Jamie Soward has a whinge about his Origin snub - warranted or not?

Join Warrick Nicolson and Matt Duncan as they dissect the results of Rep Weekend and the resulting Origin permutations plus we preview all the Round 8 action in  NOT The Footy Show  Episode 103.

We talk the ANZAC Test's future, City-Country and NYC Origin success or failure? QLD City v Country an option? Who QLD actually fear and the  NOT The Footy Show  Feedback Files get another run.

And as always we have a good look at the chances of your team in Round 8, with our panel's tips and much anticipated Special Fried Rice selections.

At just 48 minutes long this week - NOT The Footy Show is ready to go well before ANZAC Day

1st Prize: Your name permanent markered onto our prestigious NTFS Trophy and a NTFS T-Shirt for the Top 3 finishers.
We have two comps running in Dream Team and Super Coach.
WEDNESDAY - APRIL 25
STORM $1.40 v $3.05 WARRIORS 
WAR +7.5 | GAME STATS | @ AAMI Park, Melbourne. 7:00pm Kick-Off.

NRL TWEET PLAYER OF THE YEAR VOTERS - REP PLAYER OF THE YEAR
C Buchanan and M Duncan. Follow #NRLTweetPOTY for every Vote in 2012.
COMING IN
Storm are 7-0 and 1st, Warriors are 3-4 and 9th.
HEAD TO HEAD LAST 10
Storm 4 Warriors 5 Draw 1
The Warriors stunned the Storm in the prelim final last year and actually won this corresponding game at AAMI Park in 2011. Warriors have won 3 of last 4.
TUESDAY TEAM NEWS

MEL: B Slater, M Duffie, D Nielsen, W Chambers, A Quinn, G Widdop, C Cronk, J Bromwich, C Smith (c), B Norrie, K Proctor, R Hoffman, T Lowrie.
Bench: R Hinchcliffe, R Kostjasyn, S Vave, J Ryles, A Quinn.
[Team Changes - This is a settled looking Storm side with only Sika Manu missing from their full strength lineup. There's a chance Billy Slater could miss here given the shortened break after the Test but that's a remote chance. Ryan Hinchcliffe could start for Todd Lowrie - who while named - did miss last round. Anthony Quinn or Rory Kostjasyn will be the 18th man. ]

WAR: K Locke, B Tupou, B Henry, K Inu, M Vatuvei, J Maloney, S Johnson, Sione Lousi, N Friend, B Matulino, F Mateo, S Mannering (c), E Taylor.
Bench: R Packer, U Ta'ai, L Brown, Sam Rapira, P Godinet, G Fisiiahi.
[Team Changes - The Warriors get Kevin Locke back but lost Jerome Ropati to another hamstring injury. Pita Godinet and Glen Fisiiahi travelled with the team but are not expected to play. Manu Vatuvei picked up an ankle injury in the Test but is expected to play. ]
THURSDAY GAME PREVIEW
Listen to the Podcast for a full preview, but we like the Storm.
Look the Warriors will be the 'sexy upset' pick of the round but a team like Melbourne don't win eight games in a row by accident. The Warriors always match up well with the Storm but if the Storm turn up with their minds on the job - the Warriors aren't in good enough form to spring the upset here... well I'm not willing to waste a tip on them put it that way.
TIPPING AND FANTASY LATE MAIL
SMH and Other Late Mail - Todd Lowrie misses with a leg injury and Siosaia Vave is left out. Anthony Quinn and Rory Kostjasyn come into the team. Shaun Johnson is a late withdrawal with the shoulder injury he picked up in the Test and Pita Godinet starts.
THE NRL TWEET'S PICK
STORM by 6.

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FRIDAY - APRIL 27
BULLDOGS $2.15 v $1.73 SEA EAGLES 
CBY +2.0 | GAME STATS | @ ANZ Stadium, Homebush. 7:35pm Kick-Off.

NRL TWEET PLAYER OF THE YEAR VOTERS - REP PLAYER OF THE YEAR
B Hoese and N Wilbow. Follow #NRLTweetPOTY for every Vote in 2012.
COMING IN
Bulldogs are 4-3 and 5th, Sea Eagles are 3-4 and 8th.
HEAD TO HEAD LAST 10
Bulldogs 3 Sea Eagles 7
Manly won both games last year but this is game one of Hasler v Toovey.
TUESDAY TEAM NEWS

CBY: B Barba, S Turner, J Morris, J Wright, B Goodwin, J Reynolds, K Keating, A Tolman, M Ennis (c), S Kasiano, F Pritchard, D Halatau, D Stagg.
Bench: J Graham, G Eastwood, C Payne, J Romelo, M Taupau.
[Team Changes - No changes for the Bulldogs. They are retaining the same 17 that was beaten by the Storm in Round 7. Martin Taupau is the 18th man and Trent Hodkinson is unlikely to return this week from a knee injury. ]

MAN: B Stewart, J Taufua, J Lyon (c), S Matai, D Williams, K Foran, D Cherry-Evans, J King (c), M Ballin, B Kite, A Watmough, J Buhrer, G Stewart.
Bench: J Galuvao, D Whare, N Skinner, V Mauro, D Harrison, L Foran.
[Team Changes - Manly have named Kieran Foran (Hammy), Glenn Stewart (Finger) and Brett Stewart (Ribs) after all three missed their loss to the Titans. Vic Mauro is moved to the bench with Dean Whare and Liam Foran, while there is no sign of Darcy Lussick - who is suspended until Round 9. ]
THURSDAY GAME PREVIEW
Listen to the Podcast for a full preview, but we like the Sea Eagles.
TIPPING AND FANTASY LATE MAIL
SMH and Other Late Mail - Foran is the big concern for the Sea Eagles but our spies tell us he trained earlier this week and the reports he hasn't trained later in the week is simply not to overdo it - not that he can't. But wait til an hour before kick-off and you'll know for sure (He's out - Liam Foran to 5/8 and George Rose is a surprise inclusion on the bench). Matai and Glenn Stewart will play, as will Brett Stewart. Dogs will be 1-17 with Trent Hodkinson at least another week away.
THE NRL TWEET'S PICK
Sea Eagles by 4.

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FRIDAY - APRIL 27
BRONCOS $1.28 v $3.85 TITANS 
GLD +10.5 | GAME STATS | @ Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane. 7:35pm Kick-Off.

NRL TWEET PLAYER OF THE YEAR VOTERS - REP PLAYER OF THE YEAR
M McLucas and J Davies. Follow #NRLTweetPOTY for every Vote in 2012.
COMING IN
Broncos are 6-1 and 2nd, Titans are 2-5 and 15th.
HEAD TO HEAD LAST 10
Broncos 8 Titans 2
Brisbane have this rivalry in hand, winning the last five in a row.
TUESDAY TEAM NEWS

BRI: J Hoffman, G Beale, J Reed, J Hodges, D Copley, C Norman, P Wallace, B Hannant, A McCullough, P Civoniceva, A Glenn, S Thaiday (c), C Parker.
Bench: B Hunt, J McGuire, M Gillett, D Lui.
[Team Changes - Peter Wallace returns from a groin strain at halfback and Ben Hunt drops back to the bench after a sensational game filling in. Dunamis Lui is again on the bench, while Kurt Baptiste drops back to the QLD Cup. ]

GLD: W Zillman, K Gordon, J Idris, D Peyroux, D Mead, A Sezer, S Prince (c), L Bailey, M Srama, L Douglas, G Bird, L O'Dwyer, N Myles.
Bench: M White, M Henderson, M Minichiello, B Thompson, P Graham.
[Team Changes - Beau Champion is out with a back injury, Ashley Harrison misses a week with suspension and Jamal Idris is no certainty with a hamstring strain. Dom Peyroux is at centre, Nate Myles shifts to lock and Phil Graham and Matt White are the new men on the bench. Aiden Sezer holds his spot at five-eighth in a sign John Cartwright might be onto something... ]
THURSDAY GAME PREVIEW
Listen to the Podcast for a full preview, but we like the Broncos.
TIPPING AND FANTASY LATE MAIL
SMH and Other Late Mail - Broncos look healthy, only Josh Hoffman's ankle is of any concern and Wallace will play. Idris has been cleared but don't hold your breath that the hammy holds up, with Phil Graham on standby.
THE NRL TWEET'S PICK
Broncos by 12.

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SATURDAY - APRIL 28
RABBITOHS $1.91 v $1.91 COWBOYS 
EVEN LINE | GAME STATS | @ ANZ Stadium, Homebush. 7:30pm Kick-Off.

NRL TWEET PLAYER OF THE YEAR VOTERS - REP PLAYER OF THE YEAR
G Delaney and N Wilbow. Follow #NRLTweetPOTY for every Vote in 2012.
COMING IN
Rabbitohs are 3-4 and 12th, Cowboys are 4-3 and 4th.
HEAD TO HEAD LAST 10
Rabbitohs 6 Cowboys 4
The Bunnies have the wood on the Cowboys, winning 4 of the last 5.
TUESDAY TEAM NEWS

SOU: G Inglis, A Everingham, M King, D Farrell, C McQueen, J Sutton, A Reynolds, S Geddes, I Luke, D Tyrrell, E Pettybourne, D Taylor, M Crocker.
Bench: J Clark, B Lowe, N Areaiiti, J Starling, S Corrigan, N Merritt.
[Team Changes - Look that really is Nathan Merritt's name on the extended bench. Assuming he trains well this week he'll go onto the wing and Chris McQueen will drop to the bench. Shaune Corrigan and Josh Starling likely miss out. The health of Greg Inglis who copped a head knock in the Test is the only concern for the Bunnies... other than Merritt's big toe. ]

NQL: M Bowen, A Graham, B Tate, A Winterstein, K Fai-Fai Loa, J Thurston (c), R Thompson, A Sims, A Payne, J Tamou, G Cooper, T Sims, D Johnson.
Bench: J Segeyaro, G Hall, R Thorby, J Taumalolo.
[Team Changes - The continued absence of Matthew Scott with a foot injury is the only surprise. Kane Linnett is not ready to come back from a hamstring injury and Kalifa Fai-Fai Loa holds his wing spot. Tariq Sims starts in the second row again with Glenn Hall and Jason Taumalolo on the bench. ]
THURSDAY GAME PREVIEW
Listen to the Podcast for a full preview, but we like the Cowboys.
TIPPING AND FANTASY LATE MAIL
SMH and Other Late Mail - Nathan Merritt will come onto the wing for Chris McQueen who goes to the bench and Shaune Corrigan will miss out. Matt Scott could travel with the team so don't be shocked if he plays at the expense of Ricky Thorby or Jason Taumalolo, while Scott Bolton is the probable 18th man. Bolton is set to get a run now that Glenn Hall has withdrawn with a foot injury, Scott remains an outside chance.
THE NRL TWEET'S PICK
Cowboys by 7.

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SUNDAY - APRIL 29
RAIDERS $1.87 v $1.95 SHARKS 
EVEN LINE | GAME STATS | @ Canberra Stadium, Canberra. 2:00pm Kick-Off.

NRL TWEET PLAYER OF THE YEAR VOTERS - REP PLAYER OF THE YEAR
G Delaney and M Vickers. Follow #NRLTweetPOTY for every Vote in 2012.
COMING IN
Raiders are 3-4 and 11th, Sharks are 5-2 and 3rd.
HEAD TO HEAD LAST 10
Raiders 4 Sharks 6
These two teams have split the last six games down the middle.
TUESDAY TEAM NEWS

CAN: R Robinson, B Ferguson, J Croker, S Berrigan, J Wighton, J McCrone, S Williams, D Shillington (c), G Buttriss, T Learoyd-Lahrs, J Papalii, B Harrison, S Fensom.
Bench: M McIlwrick, J Thompson, S Mataora, D Tilse, J Picker.
[Team Changes - David Shillington pulled up fine from Test duty but Terry Campese is done for the year after doing the ACL in his reconstructed knee again. Josh McCrone goes to five-eighth and Sam Williams takes over at #7. Shaun Fensom also returns at lock, with Joe Picker to the bench alongside debutant Matt McIlwrick who has moved fellow hooker Travis Waddell back to the NSW Cup. Minus Campese and Dugan this isn't a bad looking team to be honest. ]

CRO: M Wright, S Mills, B Pomeroy, C Best, J Williams, T Carney, J Robson, B Gibbs, I De Gois, B Ross, J Smith, J Bukuya, P Gallen (c).
Bench: A Fifita, W Graham, J Morris, S Tagataese, M Taufua.
[Team Changes - Matt Wright continues at fullback, while Isaac De Gois comes back in at hooker for John Morris. Mark Taufua is 18th man as the Sharks look for 6 straight wins in Canberra. All rep players pulled up sweet. ]
THURSDAY GAME PREVIEW
Listen to the Podcast for a full preview, but we like the Raiders.
TIPPING AND FANTASY LATE MAIL
SMH and Other Late Mail - Josh Dugan is not expected to play but the Sharks are saying they think he will. If he does, Robinson would go to the wing and Wighton might miss out or go to the bench. Shaun Fensom might also start from the pine in his injury comeback with Joel Thompson a possible starter. The Sharks should have Isaac De Gois back and Bryce Gibbs should play despite barely training this week with a cork, while Mark Taufua will be the 18th man.
THE NRL TWEET'S PICK
Raiders by 2.

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SUNDAY - APRIL 29
EELS $2.65 v $1.50 TIGERS 
PAR +6.0 | GAME STATS | @ Parramatta Stadium, Parramatta. 3:00pm Kick-Off.

NRL TWEET PLAYER OF THE YEAR VOTERS - REP PLAYER OF THE YEAR
W Nicolson and J Davies. Follow #NRLTweetPOTY for every Vote in 2012.
COMING IN
Eels are 1-6 and 16th, Tigers are 2-5 and 13th.
HEAD TO HEAD LAST 10
Eels 6 Tigers 4
The Tigers have won 3 of the last 4.
TUESDAY TEAM NEWS

PAR: J Hayne, K Sio, C Blair, W Tonga, L Burt, B Roberts, C Sandow, T Mannah, M Keating, M Allgood, N Hindmarsh (c), J Paulo, R Maitua.
Bench: C McGuire, FF MoiMoi, J Poore, M Ryan.
[Team Changes - Esi Tonga is gone, with Cheyse Blair into the centres and club stalwart Luke Burt on the wing. Matt Ryan holds his spot in the 17 while Joseph Paulo is in the second row yet again. Chris Sandow has recovered from his heartstring and will play NRL this week. ]

WTG: T Moltzen, B Ryan, J Reddy, C Lawrence, L Tuqiri, B Marshall, T Humble, A Woods, R Farah (c), K Galloway, A Blair, L Fulton, M Bell.
Bench: B Ayshford, B Murdoch-Masila, M Groat, R Cashmere.
[Team Changes - Matt Groat returns to the squad after a head knock and he replaces Junior Moors in the team that beat Penrith. Otherwise the Tigers are unchanged, with rampaging Ray Cashmere once again on the bench and all their rep players pulling up fine. ]
THURSDAY GAME PREVIEW
Listen to the Podcast for a full preview, but we like the Tigers.
TIPPING AND FANTASY LATE MAIL
SMH and Other Late Mail - Tigers will be 1-17 unless Matt Groat has any issues with headaches in the leadup. Junior Moors could come in if that's the case. The Eels had Chris Sandow in doubt during the week with was being called a shoulder injury but it sounds more like a heartstring… and today news comes through that he might have been punted to NSW Cup with Casey McGuire the new Parramatta #7. Brave move by Stephen Kearney but if it sparks the half million dollar man then it’s a master-stroke.
THE NRL TWEET'S PICK
Tigers by 12.

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MONDAY - APRIL 30
KNIGHTS $1.40 v $3.05 PANTHERS 
PEN +8.0 | GAME STATS | @ Hunter Stadium, Newcastle. 7:00pm Kick-Off.

NRL TWEET PLAYER OF THE YEAR VOTERS - REP PLAYER OF THE YEAR
W Nicolson and M Duncan. Follow #NRLTweetPOTY for every Vote in 2012.
COMING IN
Knights are 3-4 and 10th, Panthers are 2-5 and 14th.
HEAD TO HEAD LAST 10
Knights 7 Panthers 3
Newcastle won both games last year but the Panthers won the two before that.
TUESDAY TEAM NEWS

NEW: D Boyd, J McManus, W Naiqama, T Tahu, A Uate, J Mullen, K Gidley (c), K Snowden, D Buderus, E Tuimavave, C Houston, Z Taia, N Costigan.
Bench: M Hilder, J Edwards, W Mason, A McKinnon.
[Team Changes - The Knights have named Kurt Gidley and Willie Mason for their Round 8 clash with the Panthers, relegating Richie Fa'aoso and Tyrone Roberts to the NSW Cup, and Adam Cuthbertson is out with a back injury. Junior Sa'u also makes way for the return of Wes Naiqama. ]

PEN: L Coote, D Simmons, M Jennings, G Daniela, B Tighe, B Austin, L Walsh, S McKendry, T Burns, D Weston, C Ciraldo, D Galea, L Lewis (c).
Bench: R Simpkins, C Armit, C Newton, M Robinson.
[Team Changes - Michael Jennings is back from injury and he pushes Brad Tighe to the wing and Sandor Earl drops out. Blake Austin remains at five-eighth with Travis Burns still at hooker for the injured Kevin Kingston. Danny Galea is in the second row and Ryan Simpkins rejoins the bench after a week with Windsor. Clint Newton is on the bench. ]
THURSDAY GAME PREVIEW
Listen to the Podcast for a full preview, but we like the Knights.
TIPPING AND FANTASY LATE MAIL
SMH and Other Late Mail - Danny Buderus has made a miracle recovery from whatever injury was advertised so he didn't have to play City-Country and will lineup at hooker. Kurt Gidley will also make his comeback, while Willie Mason is a confirmed starter. Penrith will make a call on Michael Jennings as late as possible, with Sandor Earl likely to travel to Newcastle as cover. Tim Grant could also make a sneaky appearance after missing since the first couple of weeks of the season with a calf injury.
THE NRL TWEET'S PICK
Knights by 10.

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CLICK FOR MOST RECENT UPDATE
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This year not only do you get The NRL Tweet's Tips each week but the whole NOT The Footy Show team will have their picks listed by Thursday so you can back a smoky or a favourite by seeing who we all picked (or didn't pick). 
@NRLTWEET's 2012 TIPPING RECORD 
TOTAL AFTER 7 ROUNDS - 32/56 @ 57%
SPECIAL FRIED RICE involves each tipster taking a 'certainty' in a set order, with the tipster with the highest score at the end of the year literally winning a mountain of Special Fried Rice.
ROUND 8 SELECTIONS
Dragons
Storm
Sea Eagles
Broncos
Cowboys
Raiders
Tigers
Knights
LW: 7/8 | SEASON 32/56
Special Fried Rice: TIGERS
Season SFR: 4/7
Not on Twitter
Nic McInerney, NTFS Co-Host
Dragons
Storm
Sea Eagles
Broncos
Cowboys
Sharks
Tigers
Knights
LW: 7/8 | SEASON 34/56
Special Fried Rice: DRAGONS
Season SFR: 5/7
@mrpeninsula
Matt Duncan, 101.5 FM's SportsFever
Dragons
Warriors
Bulldogs
Broncos
Cowboys
Sharks
Tigers
Knights
LW: 4/8 | SEASON: 32/56
Special Fried Rice: BULLDOGS
Season SFR: 5/7

Not on Twitter
DC Chapman, NTFS Co-Host
Dragons
Storm
Bulldogs
Broncos
Cowboys
Sharks
Tigers
Knights
LW: 7/8 | SEASON 36/56
Special Fried Rice: STORM
Season SFR: 2/6

@mtsialis
Maria Tsialis, Big League Magazine
Dragons
Storm
Bulldogs
Broncos
Rabbitohs
Raiders
Eels
Knights
LW: 5/8 | SEASON 29/56
Special Fried Rice: BRONCOS
Season SFR: 4/7

@GT_Tips
George 'GT' Taylor, GT's Tips Expert
No tips at this stage
LW: 7/8 | SEASON 30/56
Special Fried Rice: KNIGHTS
Season SFR: 3/7
Not on Twitter
Eyes, The Kid Who Sees All
Roosters
Warriors
Bulldogs
Broncos
Cowboys
Raiders
Tigers
Knights
LW: 2/8 | SEASON 24/48
Eyes does not eat Special Fried Rice... yet.
Make sure you enter NOT The Footy Show's Tipping Competition, the outright winner walks away with an Official Steeden Match ball!
TIPS DONE, GO OUT AND ENJOY THE FOOTY!
If you want a full 2012 NRL Season Preview you'll need to pick yourself up a copy of the 2012 Rugby League Almanac for just $10.00 - where every team is analysed in depth and our Predicted Ladder and Premiership pick is published.


So while you go grab a copy, here is the short sharp and boldly premature 2012 Prediction for each NRL Club. If you want our Final Ladder - see the Almanac.

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