Thursday 29 March 2012

NRL 2012: Round 5 NRL Preview Tips Teams Predictions Late Mail Fantasy News Odds

ROUND 5 NRL TIPPING PREVIEW
By W D Nicolson 

Last week, the previously undefeated Dogs got dusted by the Knights, the Eels and Titans suck, the Wests Tigers dropped to 1-3 and Billy Slater kept scoring at an unnatural rate.

For more on Round 5, check out the Podcast and Preview below.

For game-specific Late Mail every week - check back on Friday (or if there's an earlier game, earlier) for all your tipping and fantasy game needs.

Latest Podcast 28/03/2012: Download as MP3
NOT The Footy Show Episode 99 - NRL Round 5 Preview

Subscribe to the NRL Podcast by following this link NOT The Footy Show on iTunes
If you play Fantasy League Games - Dream Team, Super Coach or Fantasy NRL - our comp information is below our Preview Section.
1st Prize: NRL Match Steeden Ball. 2nd to 5th: NTFS Club Mascot T-Shirts.
NRL PREVIEW ROUND 5 - 2012
29/03 Odds are courtesy of Sportingbet Australia
For some more insight into the markets check out NOT The Footy Show's new resident tipster's site GT Tips http://www.gttips.co.uk
All Kick-Offs are LOCAL time.


FRIDAY - MARCH 30
STORM $1.41 v $3.00 KNIGHTS 
NEW +7.5 | GAME STATS | @ AAMI Park, Melbourne. 7:45pm Kick-Off.

NRL TWEET PLAYER OF THE YEAR VOTERS
B Hoese and W Nicolson. Follow #NRLTweetPOTY for every Vote in 2012.
COMING IN
Melbourne are 4-0 and 1st, Newcastle are 2-2 and 9th.
HEAD TO HEAD LAST 10
Storm 8 Knights 2
Melbourne have won 4 straight since 2010.
TUESDAY TEAM NEWS

MEL: B Slater, M Duffie, D Nielsen, W Chambers, S Waqa, G Widdop, C Cronk, J Bromwich, C Smith (c), B Norrie, S Manu, R Hoffman, T Lowrie.
Bench: R Hinchcliffe, K Proctor, S Vave, J Ryles, R Kostjasyn.
[Team Changes - Will Chambers and Sisa Waqa hold their centre and wing spots after being late starters for the injured Justin O'Neill and Anthony Quinn last weekend. The only other change is Rory Kostjasyn added to a five man bench. ]

NEW: D Boyd, J McManus, J Sa'u, T Tahu, A Uate, K Gidley (c), J Mullen, K Snowden, D Buderus (c), R Fa'aoso, C Houston, Z Taia, N Costigan.
Bench: A McKinnon, A Cuthbertson, J Edwards, Z Tetevano, M Hilder.
[Team Changes - Adam Cuthbertson and Akuila Uate return from injury, while Kurt Gidley is given back the #6 jumper he surprisingly filled last Sunday. Richie Fa'aoso holds his starting spot, while Matt Hilder is 18th man after getting hooked soon after taking the field in the second half last week. ]
THURSDAY GAME PREVIEW
Listen to the Podcast for a full preview, but we like the Storm. 
TIPPING AND FANTASY LATE MAIL
SMH and Other Late Mail - Matt Hilder is set to miss out in favour of Zane Tetevano, Aku Uate will play. The Storm should be 1-17 unless Anthony Quinn is over a corked thigh or Justin O'Neill is over a calf injury - either would come in for Sisa Waqa. There's also talk that Gareth Widdop's ankle isn't 100% and Rory Kostjasyn or Luke Kelly would come in.

THE NRL TWEET'S PICK
Storm by 12.

|-| |-| |-|
NOT The Footy Show Episode 99 - NRL Round 5 Video Preview
No Video this week apologies, just check out the Podcast for all our tips.
1st Prize: Your name permanent markered onto our prestigious NTFS Trophy and a NTFS T-Shirt for the Top 3 finishers.
We have two comps running in Dream Team and Super Coach.

FRIDAY - MARCH 30
BRONCOS $1.56 v $2.50 DRAGONS 
STI +4.5 | GAME STATS | @ Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane. 7:45pm Kick-Off.

NRL TWEET PLAYER OF THE YEAR VOTERS
J Davies and M Duncan. Follow #NRLTweetPOTY for every Vote in 2012.
COMING IN
Brisbane are 3-1 and 3rd, St.George-Illawarra are 3-1 and 4th.
HEAD TO HEAD LAST 10
Broncos 5 Dragons 5
Brisbane have won 3 straight and 5 of the last 6.
TUESDAY TEAM NEWS

BRI: J Hoffman, G Beale, J Reed, J Hodges, D Copley, C Norman, P Wallace, B Hannant, A McCullough, P Civoniceva, A Glenn, S Thaiday (c), M Gillett.
Bench: B Hunt, J McGuire, B Te'o, S Anderson.
[Team Changes - The terrible leg injury to Jharal Yow Yeh will rule him out for the season, and last year's semi-regular winger Dale Copley gets first crack at replacing him. Matt Gillett also starts for Ben Te'o at lock, but that is the only other change to the squad from Round 4. ]

STI: B Morris, D Vidot, K Stanley, B Scott, J Nightingale, J Soward, B Hornby (c), D Hunt, M Rein, M Weyman, M Prior, B Creagh, D Young.
Bench: L Ah Mau, J Latimore, T Merrin, J de Belin, J Miller.
[Team Changes - Matt Prior, Jack de Belin and Josh Miller join the squad, while Matt Cooper and Cameron King drop out with injury. Beau Scott goes to the centres and Prior returns to the second row. Dean Young may play more at hooker with King and Nathan Fien out, so expect de Belin or Jeremy Latimore to start. ]
THURSDAY GAME PREVIEW
Listen to the Podcast for a full preview, but we like the Broncos. 
TIPPING AND FANTASY LATE MAIL
SMH and Other Late Mail - Jack de Belin will play, while Nathan Green is on standby as 18th man after Josh Miller dropped out. Peter Wallace should play despite tender ribs.

THE NRL TWEET'S PICK
Broncos by 4.

|-| |-| |-|
SATURDAY - MARCH 31
PANTHERS $1.67 v $2.25 SHARKS 
CRO +3.5 | GAME STATS | @ Centrebet Stadium, Penrith. 5:30pm Kick-Off.

NRL TWEET PLAYER OF THE YEAR VOTERS
M Vickers and M Spillane. Follow #NRLTweetPOTY for every Vote in 2012.
COMING IN
Penrith are 2-2 and 5th, Cronulla are 2-2 and 11th.
HEAD TO HEAD LAST 10
Panthers 5 Sharks 5
Penrith have won 3 of the last 4.
TUESDAY TEAM NEWS

PEN: L Coote, E Uaisele, M Jennings, B Tighe, D Simmons T Burns, L Walsh, S McKendry, K Kingston, D Weston, C Newton, C Ciraldo, L Lewis (c).
Bench: D Galea, M Achurch, B Austin, R Simpkins, M Robinson.
[Team Changes - Tim Grant is still not ready to return from a calf injury at prop, so Dayne Weston will start again. Nathan Smith will miss a big chunk of the season with a broken leg, so Cameron Ciraldo is named to play despite missing recent weeks with a shoulder injury. Mitch Achurch holds his spot on the bench, and David Simmons is expected to shake an ankle injury and play. Matt Robinson is the 18th man. ]

CRO: N Gardner, S Mills, B Pomeroy, C Best, J Williams, T Carney, J Robson, B Gibbs, I De Gois, B Ross, J Smith, J Bukuya, P Gallen (c).
Bench: A Fifita, W Graham, J Morris, S Tagataese.
[Team Changes - Paul Gallen goes back to lock with the return of Bryce Gibbs at prop (again) but with Anthony Tupou suffering a knee injury in the win over the Cowboys, there could be a reshuffle on the bench. Jon Green or Mark Taufua are the most likely to come in as 18th man. ]
THURSDAY GAME PREVIEW
Listen to the Podcast for a full preview, but we like the Panthers. 
TIPPING AND FANTASY LATE MAIL
SMH and Other Late Mail - Tim Grant could be a late starter after training all week (calf), Matt Robinson is 18th man but Blake Austin could miss out if Penrith decide to go with big men only on their bench. Stewart Mills is long odds, Matt Wright might be the man to come in. Bryce Gibbs wants to play but don't count on it and Nathan Gardner is expected to play after getting knocked out last round.

THE NRL TWEET'S PICK
Panthers by 4.

|-| |-| |-|
SATURDAY - MARCH 31
EELS $3.25 v $1.36 SEA EAGLES 
PAR +8.5 | GAME STATS | @ Parramatta Stadium, Parramatta. 7:30pm Kick-Off.

NRL TWEET PLAYER OF THE YEAR VOTERS
N Wilbow and W Nicolson. Follow #NRLTweetPOTY for every Vote in 2012.
COMING IN
Parramatta are 0-4 and 16th, Manly are 2-2 and 10th.
HEAD TO HEAD LAST 10
Sea Eagles 7 Eels 3
Manly won both games last year.
TUESDAY TEAM NEWS

PAR: J Hayne, K Sio, E Tonga, W Tonga, C Blair, B Roberts, C Sandow, T Mannah, M Keating, M Allgood, N Hindmarsh (c), T Lasalo, R Maitua.
Bench: C McGuire, FF MoiMoi, J Poore, J Paulo.
[Team Changes - Luke Burt has been dropped again with Jarryd Hayne returning at fullback. Esi Tonga also relegates Ryan Morgan to the NSW Cup. Other than that, the Eels have retained much of the same team that handed Penrith an easy win last Friday night. ]

MAN: B Stewart, M Oldfield, J Lyon (c), D Whare, D Williams, K Foran, D Cherry-Evans, J King (c), M Ballin, B Kite, A Watmough, J Buhrer, D Harrison.
Bench: N Skinner, V Mauro, D Lussick, J Taufua.
[Team Changes - Manly have named the same 17 that went down to the Dragons in Round 4 but Glenn Stewart is a good chance of returning from a finger injury here. Steve Matai may still be another week or two away. Jorge Taufua and Nick Skinner hold their spots on the bench, although Taufua didn't get a run against the Dragons. ]
THURSDAY GAME PREVIEW
Listen to the Podcast for a full preview, but we like the Sea Eagles. 
TIPPING AND FANTASY LATE MAIL
SMH and Other Late Mail - Nathan Hindmarsh will play after announcing he will retire at the end of the season, Jarryd Hayne is good to go. Esi Tonga may be a late withdrawal with a dodgy hamstring. Manly might get Glenn Stewart back - don't be shocked if he plays.

THE NRL TWEET'S PICK
Sea Eagles by 14.

|-| |-| |-|
SATURDAY - MARCH 31
ROOSTERS $2.60 v $1.52 WARRIORS       
SYD +5.5 | GAME STATS | @ Allianz Stadium, Sydney. 7:30pm Kick-Off.

NRL TWEET PLAYER OF THE YEAR VOTERS
M Tsialis and C Buchanan. Follow #NRLTweetPOTY for every Vote in 2012.
COMING IN
Sydney are 2-2 and 12th, Warriors are 2-2 and 6th.
HEAD TO HEAD LAST 10
Roosters 2 Warriors 7 Draw 1
The Roosters' win last year was their first against the Warriors since 2008.
TUESDAY TEAM NEWS

SYD: A Minichiello, J Leilua, M Aubusson, S Kenny-Dowall, S Perrett, B Anasta (c), M Pearce, J Waerea-Hargreaves, J Friend, M Kennedy, B Cordner, T Symonds, F-P Nuuausala.
Bench: L Tasi, T Arona, D Mortimer, M Masoe.
[Team Changes - The Roosters may finally be ready to play Tautau Moga after he returned via the NSW Cup last weekend and is not named anywhere for Round 5. He's also not on their injured list. Tom Symonds holds his second row spot for now, but if Moga plays, expect Aubusson to start in the second row. Brad Takairangi is back in NSW Cup but that's a little harsh given he was one of the Roosters only half decent players against the Storm. No Justin Carney in any grade either. ]

WAR: K Locke, B Tupou, B Henry, J Ropati, M Vatuvei, J Maloney, S Johnson, Sione Lousi, N Friend, B Matulino, F Mateo, S Mannering (c), E Taylor.
Bench: R Packer, U Ta'ai, L Brown, Sam Rapira, G Fisiiahi, K Hurrell.
[Team Changes - The Warriors have named tryscoring freak Glen Fisiiahi on the bench as cover for Kevin Locke (corked leg) and Konrad Hurrell looks to be on standby for Manu Vatuvei (hamstring). Feleti Mateo starts for Lewis Brown in the backrow, while Sam Rapira returns from injury on the bench. ]
THURSDAY GAME PREVIEW
Listen to the Podcast for a full preview, but we like the Warriors. 
TIPPING AND FANTASY LATE MAIL
SMH and Other Late Mail - Kevin Locke could miss with a corked leg, Glen Fisiiahi would start. Manu Vatuvei should be ok after a cramp in his hamstring last week. The Roosters might bring centre Tautau Moga in for Joseph Leilua or a bench forward but we've written that for a month - so don't hold your breath.

THE NRL TWEET'S PICK
Warriors by 10.

|-| |-| |-|
SUNDAY - APRIL 1
TITANS $2.65 v $1.51 BULLDOGS 
GLD +6.0 | GAME STATS | @ Skilled Park, Gold Coast. 2:00pm Kick-Off.

NRL TWEET PLAYER OF THE YEAR VOTERS
M McLucas and B Hoese. Follow #NRLTweetPOTY for every Vote in 2012.
COMING IN
Gold Coast are 1-3 and 14th, Canterbury are 3-1 and 2nd.
HEAD TO HEAD LAST 10
Titans 3 Bulldogs 4
This is the first game at Skilled Park since 2009 - last three have been at Suncorp Stadium.
TUESDAY TEAM NEWS

GLD: W Zillman, K Gordon, S Michaels, B Champion, D Peyroux, G Bird, J Rankin, L Bailey (c), M Srama, L Douglas, N Myles, M Minichiello, A Harrison.
Bench: B Lawrence, B Ridge, B Thompson, L O'Dwyer, M Henderson, K Lawton.
[Team Changes - Scott Prince is out with an arm injury, so Jordan Rankin returns from a foot problem as the new halfback. Greg Bird stays at five-eighth and Bodene Thompson has been dropped to the bench with Beau Champion returning in the centres. Still no Jamal Idris on the team sheet but monitor that news carefully later in the week. Kayne Lawton and Michael Henderson are the new men on an extended bench, while Kevin Gordon holds his spot on the wing. ]

CBY: B Barba, S Turner, J Morris, J Wright, B Goodwin, J Reynolds, K Keating, A Tolman, M Ennis (c), S Kasiano, F Pritchard, D Halatau, D Stagg.
Bench: J Graham, G Eastwood, C Payne, J Romelo, D Finucane.
[Team Changes - No Trent Hodkinson after he was diagnosed with a medial strain in his knee and is out 6-8 weeks. Kris Keating comes in at halfback and Dale Finucane replaces Martin Taupau as 18th man. But clearly no Hodkinson is the big story here. ]
THURSDAY GAME PREVIEW
Listen to the Podcast for a full preview, but we like the Bulldogs. 
TIPPING AND FANTASY LATE MAIL
SMH and Other Late Mail - Scott Prince and Jamal Idris could be late starters, and the bench could still be any combination of the six men named on Tuesday. Canterbury take Dale Finucane as 18th man and he could play in place of Corey Payne.

THE NRL TWEET'S PICK
Bulldogs by 8.

|-| |-| |-|
SUNDAY - APRIL 1
TIGERS $2.50 v $1.56 RABBITOHS 
WTG +4.5 | GAME STATS | @ Allianz Stadium, Sydney. 3:00pm Kick-Off.

NRL TWEET PLAYER OF THE YEAR VOTERS
W Nicolson and M Vickers. Follow #NRLTweetPOTY for every Vote in 2012.
COMING IN
Wests Tigers are 1-3 and 15th, South Sydney are 1-3 and 13th.
HEAD TO HEAD LAST 10
Tigers 5 Rabbitohs 5
The Bunnies have won 3 of the last 4.
TUESDAY TEAM NEWS

WTG: T Moltzen, B Ryan, J Reddy, C Lawrence, L Tuqiri, B Marshall (c), T Humble, A Woods, L Fulton, M Bell, A Blair, G Ellis, C Heighington.
Bench: S Meaney, B Murdoch-Masila, M Groat, B Ayshford.
[Team Changes - Robbie Farah has one more week to serve of a suspension, so Liam Fulton remains at #9. Lote Tuqiri is back, with Joel Reddy to centre and Blake Ayshford punted to the bench. Tom Humble starts at halfback, with Jacob Miller back in Toyota Cup. Matt Bell starts for Matt Groat in yet another change for the Tigers for Round 5. ]

SOU: G Inglis, A Everingham, M King, S Corrigan, D Farrell, J Sutton, A Reynolds, S Geddes, I Luke, R Asotasi, S Burgess, E Pettybourne, M Crocker.
Bench: B Lowe, D Taylor, J Clark, D Tyrrell, N Areaiiti.
[Team Changes - Still no Nathan Merritt... again. Just shows how ridiculous Souths naming him in Round 1 was. Scott Geddes missed last week after straining a hammy in the warmup and is listed to return here, while Dave Taylor goes to the bench for what we assume is impact value. Nathan Peats and Chris McQueen are sent to the NSW Cup, while Neccrom Areaiiti and Ben Lowe are the new faces on the bench. ]
THURSDAY GAME PREVIEW
Listen to the Podcast for a full preview, but we like the Rabbitohs. 
TIPPING AND FANTASY LATE MAIL
SMH and Other Late Mail - Benji Marshall says he will play despite rumours he will be rested due to headaches this week. Blake Ayshford could still start despite being named on the bench. South Sydney could spring Nathan Merritt on the Tigers - don't rule it out.

THE NRL TWEET'S PICK
Rabbitohs by 6.

|-| |-| |-|
MONDAY - APRIL 2
RAIDERS $1.67 v $2.25 COWBOYS 
NQL +3.5 | GAME STATS | @ Canberra Stadium, Canberra. 7:00pm Kick-Off.

NRL TWEET PLAYER OF THE YEAR VOTERS
G Delaney and M Tsialis. Follow #NRLTweetPOTY for every Vote in 2012.
COMING IN
Canberra are 2-2 and 7th, North Queensland are 2-2 and 8th.
HEAD TO HEAD LAST 10
Raiders 3 Cowboys 7
North Queensland won both last season, and 6 of the last 8.
TUESDAY TEAM NEWS

CAN: R Robinson, B Ferguson, J Croker, S Berrigan, J Wighton, T Campese (c), J McCrone, D Shillington, G Buttriss, B White, J Thompson, B Harrison, J Papalii.
Bench: T Waddell, J Picker, S Mataora, T Learoyd-Lahrs, J Kennedy.
[Team Changes - David Shillington is the most unlikely, after being injured against the Tigers and leaving the field straight away. He has been named but don't hold your breath that he'll play. Josh Papalii only played 40 minutes due to a quad strain and is 50/50 to play. Joe Picker will get a longer run if Shillington is out and Jarrad Kennedy might come in if Papalii isn't right. Reece Robinson continues at fullback after being a late starter on Monday. ]

NQL: M Bowen, A Graham, B Tate, K Linnett, A Winterstein, J Thurston (c), R Thompson, A Sims, A Payne, J Tamou, G Cooper, G Hall, D Johnson.
Bench: J Segeyaro, J Riethmuller, R Thorby, J Taumalolo.
[Team Changes - Ricky Thorby comes into the 17 but there is a whisper that Tariq Sims could make a return given it is a Monday game. He has started training again and is a chance. With Matt Scott out for a number of weeks with a foot injury, Ashton Sims starts at prop. ]
THURSDAY GAME PREVIEW
Listen to the Podcast for a full preview, but we like the Cowboys.
TIPPING AND FANTASY LATE MAIL
SMH and Other Late Mail - Dane Tilse is a surprise elevation from the injured list and could play if he passes a fitness test on his ribs this weekend. Jarrad Kennedy or Tilse would be a straight replacement for David Shillington who is likely to miss with a stomach injury. Josh Papalii is set to play after being cleared of a quad strain. Antonio Winterstein could miss with a knee injury and FINALLY Kalifa Fai-Fai Loa might get a run on the wing after being an international last season. We jumped the gun on Fe Fi Fo Fum, he is unlikely to play with Winterstein expected to be ok. Tariq Sims and Cory Paterson will travel to Canberra.

THE NRL TWEET'S PICK
Cowboys by 7.

|-| |-| |-|

CLICK FOR MOST RECENT UPDATE
|-| |-| |-|
This year not only do you get The NRL Tweet's Tips each week but the whole NOT The Footy Show team will have their picks listed by Thursday so you can back a smoky or a favourite by seeing who we all picked (or didn't pick). 
@NRLTWEET's 2012 TIPPING RECORD 
TOTAL AFTER 4 ROUNDS - 17/32 @ 53.1%
SPECIAL FRIED RICE involves each tipster taking a 'certainty' in a set order, with the tipster with the highest score at the end of the year literally winning a mountain of Special Fried Rice.
ROUND 5 SELECTIONS
Storm
Broncos
Panthers
Sea Eagles
Warriors
Bulldogs
Rabbitohs
Cowboys
LW: 3/8 | SEASON 17/32
Special Fried Rice: SEA EAGLES
Season SFR: 3/4
Not on Twitter
Nic McInerney, NTFS Co-Host
Storm
Broncos
Sharks
Sea Eagles
Warriors
Bulldogs
Rabbitohs
Raiders
LW: 4/8 | SEASON 17/32
Special Fried Rice: WARRIORS
Season SFR: 3/4
@mrpeninsula
Storm
Broncos
Sharks
Sea Eagles
Warriors
Bulldogs
Rabbitohs
Raiders
LW: 5/8 | SEASON: 18/32
Special Fried Rice: BULLDOGS
Season SFR: 3/4

Not on Twitter
DC Chapman, NTFS Co-Host
Storm
Dragons
Sharks
Sea Eagles
Warriors
Bulldogs
Rabbitohs
Cowboys
LW: 5/8 | SEASON 20/32
Special Fried Rice: DRAGONS
Season SFR: 2/4

@mtsialis
Maria Tsialis, Big League Magazine
Storm
Dragons
Sharks
Eels
Warriors
Bulldogs
Rabbitohs
Raiders
LW: 5/8 | SEASON 16/32
Special Fried Rice: RAIDERS
Season SFR: 2/4

@GT_Tips
George 'GT' Taylor, GT's Tips Expert
Storm
Broncos
Sharks
Sea Eagles
Warriors
Bulldogs
Tigers
Raiders
LW: 5/8 | SEASON 16/32
Special Fried Rice: STORM
Season SFR: 1/4
Not on Twitter
Eyes, The Kid Who Sees All
Knights
Dragons
Panthers
Sea Eagles
Roosters
Bulldogs
Rabbitohs
Raiders
LW: 2/8 | SEASON 15/24
Eyes does not eat Special Fried Rice... yet.
Make sure you enter NOT The Footy Show's Tipping Competition, the outright winner walks away with an Official Steeden Match ball!
1st Prize: NRL Match Steeden Ball. 2nd to 5th: NTFS Club Mascot T-Shirts.
TIPS DONE, GO OUT AND ENJOY THE FOOTY!
If you want a full 2012 NRL Season Preview you'll need to pick yourself up a copy of the 2012 Rugby League Almanac for just $10.00 - where every team is analysed in depth and our Predicted Ladder and Premiership pick is published.


So while you go grab a copy, here is the short sharp and boldly premature 2012 Prediction for each NRL Club. If you want our Final Ladder - see the Almanac.

|-| |-| |-|
Catch NOT THE FOOTY SHOW in 2012
With our two weekly NRL Podcasts - Subscribe via iTunes here.
The show streams live Monday 9:30pm and Wednesday 8pm right here. Podcasts are normally available within a few hours.
By Warrick D. Nicolson